This is a fun tool
that I linked to in the draft thread. Unfortunately it doesn't go that far back.
I didn't realize Nathan Hickey got 2nd/3rd round money last year ($1 million, 2nd highest among Sox). I guess I was so focused on Marcelo Mayer. That makes me like Nathan Hickey even more. I haven't really heard any updates about his progress at C. Hopefully he can stick at the position because the Sox have a glut of 1b/3b prospects and his bat probably isn't good enough for either.
Greenville: 71 PA, .250/.394/.446, .316 BAbip, 13bb/17k., 23.9% k%, 18.3% BB%, .196 ISO.
Salem: 182 PA, .271/.429/.507, .323 BAbip, 39bb/39k. 21.4% K%/21.4% BB. .236 ISO.
Surprised there isn't more hype about him but college biases apply. He's 22 so he's old for A/A+ and is expected to hit. While doing well, he's not exactly raking. His K% is almost high enough where you'd worry about some of the walks converting to Ks, but that's in a limited sample size of 71 PA at A+, and it's an "almost." When someone has a 26%+ K% coupled with a 15%+ BB%, (see Niko) I worry that player will struggle at AA and AAA. Hickey's K% in A was perfectly fine so I'm not to worried about it. Oddly enough, I'd be less worried about it if was coupled with a 10.2% BB% instead of an 18.3% BB%.
Average hit tool, average power, willing to take a walk. Below average C if he sticks, decent arm. Guess it depends how much the Sox value defense from the C spot.
A very interesting Nathan Hickey split
vs R: 202 PA, .260/.436/.480, 21xbh/6HR, 48bb/39k, .220 ISO, 23.8% BB%, 19.3% K%
vs L: 51 PA, .283/.353/.522, 5xbh/2HR, 4bb/17k, .239 ISO, 7.8% BB%, 33.3% K%.
That is so weird. I'm sure sample sizes are playing apart and his performance will dip vs L. That 48bb/39k vs R makes me feel very optimistic about his performance going forward in AA/AAA, at least vs R.
I don't think I've ever seen BB%/k% splits so drastic. 3 times more BBs and about half the Ks vs R. It's especially odd when looking at the actual performances but that's a SSS issue.
Looking at the 2021 draft:
1. Mayer: Struggling in the early going at Greenville. .056/.105/.056 in 19 PA. 1bb/6k. A lot of swing and misses too. Not that uncommon for a player to struggle the first handful of PA at a new level though.
3. McDonough: Not off to a promising start to his career. He's already 23 and is only hitting .238/.326/.368 in Greenville with 44bb/129k in 433 PA.
4. Rodriguez-Cruz: The 18 year old is off to a great start in the FCL. 1.33 era, 27.0 ip, 26 hits, 9r/4er, 7bb/31k. Sits around 92 and tops out at 95. Could add some velocity with age. Needs experience and possibly some worth with his delivery. It's medium effort.
5. Hickey: Covered
6: McElveny: The 19 year old started the year in the FCL but was quickly promoted to Salem. He's off to a mixed?!? start, slashing .095/.344/.191. He has 8bb/10k in 32 PA. Both leagues combined: 112 PA, .212/.384/.379, 23bb/36k, 5sb/0cs.
7. Olds: Getting rocked in Greenville. 6.70 era, 82.0 ip, 83 hits, 70r/61 er, 55bb/103k, 22 HBP, 18 WP. Opposing batters must have mixed feelings. Good chance they get a hit or get hit.
8. Dobbins: Binky of mine and I think the reports haven't caught up to the stuff. Sitting in the mid 90s and topping out around 97-98. Year to date: 3.83 era, 49.1 ip, 51 hits, 24r/21er, 2 HRA, 12bb/51k. Had 2 rough starts prior to last night but rebounded well. 5.0 ip, 4 hits, 2r/2er, 0bb/4k. Had TJS in March 2021, so I'd expect even more next year.
9. Miller: Struggling as a 22 year old in Salem. .209/.290/.336 in 384 PA. 35bb/109k.
10. Litwicki: Hasn't played.
11. Kavadas: He's been covered a lot. Across 2 leagues he's at 400 PA, .300/.468/.620 with 84bb/107k, 47xbh/24 HR. He will have to prove himself in AA next year at a more age appropriate level. I think contact will be a huge concern but he did cut his K% and lowered his BB% moving up to Greenville and has put the ball in play 2% more often.
12. Troye: 23 year old getting lit up in Salem. 7.32 era, 19.1 ip, 11 hits, 19r/16er, 20bb/33k. More ER than hits. Niiice.
14. Webb: 23 year old who started the year in Salem and was promoted to Greenville. He's had an interesting year. Combined, 4.15 era, 42.0 ip, 35 hits, 20r/14 er, 27bb/67k. 35.1% K%, 14.1% BB%. I wonder if he's sitting in the mid 90s and touching 100 again. That would change things a lot. Last I knew he was sitting around 92-94 and topping out in the mid 90s.
16. BJ Vela: Repeating the FCL for a 2nd year despite being 22. He's hitting well anyway. .359/.479/.460 in 48 PA. Makes good contact and doesn't strike out a lot. No power.
17. Guerrero: Just turned 22. Started in the FCL but was quickly moved up to Salem. 2.88 era, 25.0 ip, 12 hits, 10r/8er, 13bb/38k. 36.9% K%, 12.6% BB%. Sits around 92-93 and tops out at 95-96.
18. Sikes: Having a great year across 2 levels with no dip in results. 296 PA, .262/.372/.520, 37bb/74k, 39xbh/10 HRs, 10sb/11 sba. Probably organizational filler but we'll see how he does in AA.
19. Uberstine: Started in Salem, now in Greenville: YTD: 4.41 era, 87.2 ip, 77 hits, 43r/38er, 33bb/95k. Sits 90-92 tops out around 94.
Mayer is obviously the gem of the group. Hickey is my clear #2 atm. Dobbins, Rodriguez-Cruz have intriguing stuff. Webb is interesting, and much more interesting with a return in velocity. Kavadas is hitting beyond what is expected of a college player so deserves watching. McElveny has shown some promise and has youth on his side. Guerrero needs some work but has the raw stuff.
McDonough might be worth watching because of his 2nd round pick status but meh. Sikes might be worth watching because he's hit a little, but not enough given the defensive profile.
Olds, Miller, Litwicki, Troye, BJ Vela, Uberstine can probably be written off. College players not performing at the A level. I would personally add McDonough to this group but I can see why some wouldn't.
The 2021 draft is looking like a pretty big hit in the early going and it's not all Marcelo Mayer.
The 2020 draft was only 5 rounds and the Sox only had 4 picks so I'll do that really quick.
1. Nick Yorke: Had a great year last year which saw him rank as a high as 31st (BA) in all of MLB. He's fell on his face this year, but some could be due to injury. (.229/.298/.357).
2. Forfeited-sign stealing
3. Blaze Jordan: Has mostly had a solid year but some have questioned if some of his power was lost due to the weight loss and if he can catch up to velocity. He's already earned a promotion to A+ and hit 2 HRs in his first game.
4. Jeremy Wu-Yeilland: Hasn't pitched this year. Got TJS on 4/28/22. Was off to a promising start last year, sitting at 93-95 and topping out at 97.
5. Shane Drohan: Had that monster 14k game earlier this year. Lefty who sits around 90-92, tops out at 94. Or was. He had some room for improvement, not sure if he has.
2020 draft will largely depend on Yorke and Jordan. If both work, that's a huge hit too. Especially since they only had 4 picks.