Minor league thread 2023

JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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View: https://twitter.com/GarysheffieldJr/status/1724095561635361260


Sheff Sr was a top 5 non-Red Sox player for me prior to the Yankees thing. Shame his son wasn't a Marlins fan or something, but he's a good listen.

Could probably have used a bit of an introduction at the top of the show regarding who Sheff Jr is, what he does, etc. The only real intro was as the 6th member of the media.

Started listening on my way to work & got up to the golf talk. I went online to find out more about him & yikes'd right out of that & decided I now know too much about him, though.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Seems kind of like this year's Bradley Zimmer?

View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1723090197699531214
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Here's a piece from BCamp on some more Mark Contreras details & stats.

https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2023/11/10/red-sox-sign-former-twins-outfielder-mark-contreras-to-minor-league-deal/

To that end, Contreras figures to provide the Red Sox with versatile, experienced outfield depth at Triple-A Worcester next season. As things stand now, he slots in behind the likes of Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Rob Refsnyder, Alex Verdugo, and Masataka Yoshida, all of whom are on Boston’s 40-man roster.
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byAndrewParker

byAndrewParker

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JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/GarysheffieldJr/status/1724095561635361260


Sheff Sr was a top 5 non-Red Sox player for me prior to the Yankees thing. Shame his son wasn't a Marlins fan or something, but he's a good listen.

Could probably have used a bit of an introduction at the top of the show regarding who Sheff Jr is, what he does, etc. The only real intro was as the 6th member of the media.

Started listening on my way to work & got up to the golf talk. I went online to find out more about him & yikes'd right out of that & decided I now know too much about him, though.
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Definitely a good baseball mind obviously with the bloodline and being around the game for a while.

Will be back to Red Sox minors next with an interview with Justin Hagenman.
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
Definitely a good baseball mind obviously with the bloodline and being around the game for a while.

Will be back to Red Sox minors next with an interview with Justin Hagenman.
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Yeah...being antivax & proBauer is a rough combo, though.

I was surprised to see The Athletic list Hagenman as 1 of only 6 players they mentioned in the Red Sox R5 discussion.

https://theathletic.com/5052821/2023/11/13/red-sox-rule-5-draft-possibilities/

RHP Justin Hagenman

Hagenman arrived to the organization along with Nick Robertson from the Dodgers in the Kiké Hernández trade. He offers value as a depth reliever in Triple A with 3.26 ERA with 28 strikeouts and 14 walks in 30 1/3 innings over 16 appearances with Worcester. He’s certainly not a lock, but for an organization that needs upper level depth arms, he’s worth considering.
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He definitely finished the season strong, though...despite being pretty wild. From August 31st to end of season...

6 games
14.2 innings
1 run
8 hits
10 walks
12 strikeouts

0.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.4 k/9, 6.1 bb/9
 
byAndrewParker

byAndrewParker

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JM3 said:
Yeah...being antivax & proBauer is a rough combo, though.

I was surprised to see The Athletic list Hagenman as 1 of only 6 players they mentioned in the Red Sox R5 discussion.

https://theathletic.com/5052821/2023/11/13/red-sox-rule-5-draft-possibilities/



He definitely finished the season strong, though...despite being pretty wild. From August 31st to end of season...

6 games
14.2 innings
1 run
8 hits
10 walks
12 strikeouts

0.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.4 k/9, 6.1 bb/9
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Chad Tracy liked that he was capable of starting if needed like he did in Dodgers system. He was a good bulk inning option for them when bullpen was taxed. Great results down the stretch that you pointed out.
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
Chad Tracy liked that he was capable of starting if needed like he did in Dodgers system. He was a good bulk inning option for them when bullpen was taxed. Great results down the stretch that you pointed out.
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Yeah, I think he some sense in the WooSox rotation next year...

Drohan
Gambrell
Santos
BVB
Walter

Hagenman next up, or in the rotation if 1 of those 5 goes elsewhere, & able to slide down if Wikelman/Dobbins are ready for AAA before some more of the crunch is cleared up. I guess that's kind of like the Rio Gomez role from this year.

I just don't think he makes much sense as a guy to protect in R5. He doesn't seem to have the stuff to be that worried about it. I would be much more concerned to lose out on the upside of guys like Fernandez & Penrod who have the upside to be higher leverage pitchers.
 
jon abbey

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I only know GS Jr. from Twitter but he is most certainly not ‘a good baseball mind’. His dad sure could hit though.
 
JM3

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Sample rotations for next year before guys come in & out...

Worcester
Drohan
Gambrell
Santos
Walter
BVB

(Hagenman, MLFA)

Portland
Wikelman
Dobbins
Coffey
Penrod
Bastardo
Song

(Liu, Olds, MLFA)

Greenville
Perales
Yordanny
Paez
Rogers
ERC
Duffy

(JRod, De La Rosa, Dean, JDE)

Salem
LuCo
Early
Soto
Carlson
F. Hernandez
Mullins

(Like 6 different '23 picks, Polanco, Abreu)

FCL Sox
Batista
Stijn
Colmenares
Burnet
JMartinez
Chansol

(Wuilliams, JGarcia, Obed, Henriquez, Bates)
 
JM3

JM3

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Some other potential starters I forgot to mention above & my best guess as to which ( ) list they should go in...

Andres Jimenez (FCL)
Jose Ramirez (A+)
Luis Jerez (FCL)
Cristian Nunez (A)
Diego Hernandez (FCL)
Alvaro Mejias (FCL)
Smil Guzman??? (FCL)
 
JM3

JM3

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jon abbey said:
I only know GS Jr. from Twitter but he is most certainly not ‘a good baseball mind’. His dad sure could hit though.
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He seems to be much more of an engaging personality than a deep baseball thinker.

I finished the pod. Will not be watching his YouTube of 4-hour golf interviews.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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Here are his Top 100 prospect rankings from 9/2/23.

https://masonmcrae.medium.com/ranking-the-top-prospects-in-baseball-e42489063e8f

& the Red Sox on the list...

54. Nick Yorke, 2B, Red Sox
Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 159th in 2020

The plot twist of 2020’s first round came onto the scene quick, then scuffled a bit in ’22, and he’s back again in ’23 producing offensively. Might be a plus defender at 2B, has looked great this year and very rarely made any errors in the past. 70-grade bat speed, fringy barrel accuracy has limited him from getting to his raw power very often. If he can start doing more damage on fastballs then there’s no reason for him not be worth ~3-wins annually. Slightly above-average regular for now.
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56. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
Previous Ranking: 15th

Draft Ranking(s): 5th in 2021

It’s been quite the fall this year for Marcelo. After outpeforming his x-stats for two years straight across Low-A and High-A, he’s started to regress to the mean. Only average bat speed and a very flat VBA, I’d expect him to continue running low BABIPs until his swing path changes or he gains bat speed. Average raw power, but has shown better than average in the past. He’s an average SS and will move off from the spot into his late-20s but he’s fine at the spot for now. Below-average athleticism and more reliant on skills, the swing decisions have killed him in Double-A. He’s still hitting the ball well and mostly in the air. Still an average regular at least.
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60. Roman Anthony, CF, Red Sox
Previous Ranking: Not Ranked

Draft Ranking(s): 53rd in 2022

What a start it’s been for Roman, but there’s one glaring issue seemingly overlooked by the public with him: he’s been awful against LHP. The positive is that it’s not a big sample, the negative is that since it’s a small sample his surface numbers look really good and he might be getting overvalued a touch. He struggles with LH fastballs, chases more often, and hasn’t hit the ball very hard against them either.

He’s big and has above-average raw with plus raw coming once he fills out. Above-average bat speed, solid bat-to-ball skills, hits the ball at optimal LAs and makes good decisions in a patient approach that draws walks. We’ll see if he can play CF once the body fills out, I’ve got him as an average defender there, non-zero chance he moves to RF, above-average arm and still adds value in the corner. He hammers RHP and with his defense, he’d be able to handle the strong side of a platoon over 80–100 games assuming the struggles against LHP are real. If he can get to an 85–90 wRC+ against LHP than he’ll probably be good enough to start everyday. Average, maybe slightly above-average regular. Still just 19-years-old and can easily exceed my projections with development.
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89. Kyle Teel, C, Red Sox
Previous Ranking: N/A

Draft Ranking(s): 454th in 2020 / 18th in 2023

Another boring but good player, plus athlete with a quick arm. Undersized non-muscular build, not sure how much he’ll hit with wood but he has barrel accuracy and a solid approach so he should be able to hit for average and get just shy of 20 HR. Very low ceiling, high probability big leaguer.
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JM3

JM3

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The SP folks had the same consensus 3 adds as everyone else: Drohan, Perales & Wikelman.

Hatfield has Ryan Fernandez 4th on his list of people to protect if they go past 3. Cundall has Grant Gambrell, but doesn't think he'll be protected due to lack of upside.

They also discussed Bastardo & Penrod; briefly touched on Cepeda, Zeferjahn, Hagenman, & Sena as relievers further down the list than Fernandez; mentioned good prospects further away they don't expect to get picked - Allan Castro & Eddinson Paulino; & then others - Scott, Song, & Bonaci.

One word of mini-beef: it was weird when Cundall cited the jump in Gambrell's AAA walk rate when he made literally 2 starts & it wasn't that big of a jump (9.1% to 11.9%). In that tiny 10.2 inning sample, Gambrell went from 3.4 bb/9 to 4.2 bb/9. Roughly the same as the jump from the bb/9 in the Eastern League (4.2) to the International League (4.8).

They're looking for a new name for the new "SP Shorts" series if any creative people want to have at it.
 
byAndrewParker

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JM3 said:
The SP folks had the same consensus 3 adds as everyone else: Drohan, Perales & Wikelman.

Hatfield has Ryan Fernandez 4th on his list of people to protect if they go past 3. Cundall has Grant Gambrell, but doesn't think he'll be protected due to lack of upside.

They also discussed Bastardo & Penrod; briefly touched on Cepeda, Zeferjahn, Hagenman, & Sena as relievers further down the list than Fernandez; mentioned good prospects further away they don't expect to get picked - Allan Castro & Eddinson Paulino; & then others - Scott, Song, & Bonaci.

One word of mini-beef: it was weird when Cundall cited the jump in Gambrell's AAA walk rate when he made literally 2 starts & it wasn't that big of a jump (9.1% to 11.9%). In that tiny 10.2 inning sample, Gambrell went from 3.4 bb/9 to 4.2 bb/9. Roughly the same as the jump from the bb/9 in the Eastern League (4.2) to the International League (4.8).

They're looking for a new name for the new "SP Shorts" series if any creative people want to have at it.
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Yeah, I wouldn’t put much into the small sample size at Triple-A for Gambrell. He talked about it when I interviewed him after his last start of the season against Norfolk that he was adjusting to pitch comm and ABS on the fly, which could have factored into walking 4 in that first AAA game.
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
Yeah, I wouldn’t put much into the small sample size at Triple-A for Gambrell. He talked about it when I interviewed him after his last start of the season against Norfolk that he was adjusting to pitch comm and ABS on the fly, which could have factored into walking 4 in that first AAA game.
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Any pre-R5 deadline thoughts on guys you might want to see protected?
 
JM3

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Here's a Top 100 prospects list from July from a guy who hasn't been hired by the Red Sox.

#23 ROMAN

23. Roman Anthony, Right Field, Boston Red Sox (A+)

2023 Preseason Ranking: #NR

2023 Preseason Future Value: N/A

Roman Anthony has really impressed in 2023. He’s a young 19-year-old who has already made his way to High-A and has continued to hit there. Most of the data in this blurb is from his time in Lo-A because he has a larger sample size. Anthony has plus-plus raw power posting a 90th EV of 104.6 and 107. For reference, MLB average is 103.6, so Anthony is already hitting the ball extremely hard. He posted a HardHit rate of 36.4 at Lo-A, which is a little bit less than MLB average. Anthony has a swing path issue that many young prospects have. It’s been mentioned multiple times already but most of the swing path issues should be improved upon the closer these prospects get to the majors and Anthony is no different. Despite the swing path, Anthony is making a lot of in-zone contact with an 86 and 89 Z-Contact%. He’s run a 17 Chase% at both levels, displaying plus plate discipline, but he does have a passive approach at the plate running a Z-Swing% below 50. There is a lot to like in the offensive profile and as he continues to improve may find himself higher on this list. Defensively, Anthony’s reads in the outfield aren’t great. He’s a below average defender as of now despite the ability to cover a lot of ground with his long strides. Some outlets suggest there’s a chance he’ll end up in center field before his graduation, but there’s too much concern with his routes and reads for him to be listed as one yet. Anthony has a high ceiling, and if the defense comes around, there’s a chance he’s a five tool player.
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#31 BLEIS

31. Miguel Bleis, Center Field, Boston Red Sox (A)

2023 Preseason Ranking: #32

2023 Preseason Future Value: 55

Miguel Bleis’ 2023 has been cut short due a shoulder injury which required surgery. Bleis is one of the toolsiest players in minor league baseball, he’s a plus runner with a plus glove in center field. The offensive production was relatively poor, but it’s worth noting he turned 19-years-old just three months ago. He pairs elite bat speed with plus-plus raw power; it’s a power over hit profile, as shown by his 73.8 Z-Contact%. Despite that, he still ran a Whiff% in the 53rd percentile, there’s a chance he’s an above average Hit Tool prospect when he graduates. The real “concern” for Bleis was his swing decisions, or lack thereof. He ran a 38.1 O-Swing% with a measly 57.5 Z-Swing%. He’s the reverse Jud Fabian, but it was a small sample size and he didn’t get a lot of time to adjust before being sidelined. Bleis has elite upside, and there’s a chance he would’ve been a 60 Future Value prospect on the 2024 Preseason list had he not been sidelined. This is Ronald Acuna Jr, Julio Rodriguez, Luis Robert level upside if it all clicks, but even if it doesn’t, he still projects to be an above average big leaguer. He moves up a few spots primarily due to graduations.
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#48 Mayer

48. Marcelo Mayer, Third Base, Boston Red Sox (AA)

2023 Preseason Ranking: #18

2023 Preseason Future Value: 55

Marcelo Mayer doesn’t quite fit the tweener profile as mentioned in PCA’s blurb but he’s not far off it. Not going to sugarcoat it, Mayer has poor plate discipline. In AA, Marcelo Mayer is running a 50.4 O-Swing%, and as a point of reference, that would be the worst in all of MLB among qualified players. A 50.4 O-Swing% is just not acceptable, regardless of your quality of contact. To compound that, Mayer is running a 70.1 Z-Contact% with a 59.1 Z-Swing%. His pitch selection isn’t ideal, and his plate discipline is bad. But, he has two things going for him; he lifts and pulls the ball enough to produce plus game power, and he has plus raw power. Mayer probably isn’t a shortstop moving forward either. The range is becoming limited and the arm strength is questionable. He’ll make the flashy play every now and then, but the reality is the routine grounders and balls that 95% of MLB shortstops make, Mayer is having to use a lot more effort to get them. He’s a 40 Grade Defender at the spot, he’ll more than likely find himself at third base because the glove is not the issue, it’s everything else.
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#69 Yorke

69. Nick Yorke, Second Base, Boston Red Sox (AA)

2023 Preseason Ranking: #NR

2023 Preseason Future Value: N/A

An injury riddled 2022 and underwhelming metrics caused Yorke to miss the preseason list. He’s transitioned to what was a hit first profile with above average raw power to a power over hit. Still in the 56th percentile with a 75.7 Z-Contact% but the in-zone whiffs are up. 31.7 Whiff% falls into the 32nd percentile for AA hitters. Swing decisions are so-so, his O-Swing% is in the median and his Z-Swing% is slightly above the median. Plus raw power but his bath path is hindering the game power output. Lots of ground balls and fly balls with very few line drives. The glove is below average. More pressure on his bat to perform.
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View: https://twitter.com/grantcegielski/status/1679612254428311552
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Red Sox hired Mason McRae as an amateur scouting assistant.

View: https://twitter.com/mason_mcrae/status/1724231492581097517


Apparently he's a college student at VCU & appears heavily into analytics.

Here's a Podcast he was on that I probably won't listen to.

View: https://twitter.com/jensen_juicy/status/1716908446266872111


On cutters...

View: https://twitter.com/mason_mcrae/status/1711573136561385568


Apparently he has done some work for the Cubs.
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View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1724235765729701981
 
JM3

JM3

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byAndrewParker said:
@edhand is in Aruba looking for the next Xander Bogaerts
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I like the small hints that he is dropping to indicate that he is going to cease drinking pina coladas soon.

Perhaps to switch to the Aruba Ariba.

Aruba-Ariba-Holiday-Inn.jpg

Known as one of the island’s most popular concoctions and often served as a welcome drink, is the Aruba Ariba. It is a mix of vodka, 151 rum (or your rum of choice), Coecoei liquor (only found in Aruba, so sadly you will need to find a comparable replacement), crème de banana, orange juice, cranberry juice, pineapple juice and a splash of grenadine over ice.
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https://www.visitaruba.com/blog/dining/hold-onto-summer-with-these-top-aruba-cocktails/
 
JM3

JM3

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Chainsaw318 said:
Isn’t the move to go to Miami Vice’s, to wean yourself of the coloda? That was my play.
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This is a bit beyond my area of expertise... but I would probably just stick to the strawberry daiquiri half of that drink.
 
JM3

JM3

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I was a bit concerned when we started getting into the college football & Henrique's fantasy football team content, but fortunately it looped back around to actual stuff lol.

Nothing really stands out regarding Hagenman one way or the other. The weirdest thing I think he said is that his Oklahoma City teammates were happy for him when he was traded to the Red Sox, which I'm guessing was just a misphrasing & he meant to say something like they were supportive of him & wished him luck in his future endeavors, but I was kind of curious about that word choice.

I like how the fast food fried chicken question is called a "one off", but there are 3 follow up questions afterward.
 
JM3

JM3

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Ed had Hagenman 7th on his list of righty relievers.

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1708227246459113581


Curious where I had him in my last rankings...

1) Luis Guerrero #15
2) Alex Hoppe #36
3) Christopher Troye #38
4) Ryan Fernandez #42
5) Feliz Cepeda #53
6) Justin Hagenman #64
7) AJ Politi #66
8) Jonathan Brand #71
9) Ryan Zeferjahn #75
10) Brock Bell #84

I also have Bryan Mata #23 & listed as an SP, but he should probably be moved down a bit & switched to RP.

& I have Nick Robertson #44, but I figured maybe Ed thought he had too much MLB experience to list him, so didn't include in the list above.
 
JM3

JM3

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That other list contained the LHP starter list... which is pretty bleak, especially considering our 1st & 3rd guys were just left unprotected for the R5 & the 4th guy is an MLFA.

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1708224356587806745


Here are my rankings of LHP starters...

1) Shane Drohan #22
2) Dalton Rogers #37
3) Zach Penrod #40
4) Noah Dean #50
5) Connelly Early #79
6) Nicolas De La Cruz #95
7) Hayden Mullins #117
8) Jeremy Wu-Yelland #130
9) Ryan Ammons #174
10) Jorge Rodriguez #231

I have Brandon Walter #58 but I'm sure Ed eliminated him from the list cuz MLB.

I have Rio #178 but he's not currently on the team.

His #10, Daniel Nunez, was since released.

Crazy how light on lefties the Red Sox are at certain levels. Of the 32 pitchers to pitch for Greenville this season, only 3 were lefties (Rogers, Penrod & Nathan Landry). It was 4 of 33 in the FCL (Mullins, JWY, Connor Butler & Zach Fogell). & only 3 guys in the DSL - NDLC, Nunez & Oscar Sanchez.

I'm going to move JRod up after the deep dive I did on him the other day. Will probably drop another full-system rankings a bit after SoxProspects does their season ending ones just so I can have the SP rankings column good to go.
 
JM3

JM3

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These embedded Tweets are continuing to drive me down rabbit holes...

View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1708222318353252859


RH starters...

1) Luis Perales #6
2) Yordanny Monegro #7
3) Wikelman Gonzalez #9
4) Hunter Dobbins #20
5) Angel Bastardo #26
6) Isaac Coffey #28
7) Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz #31
8) Grant Gambrell #33
9) Jedixson Paez #35
10) Noah Song #45

I have BVB 13th at #52, after Gilberto Batista (#48) & Luis De La Rosa (#50).

Ed doesn't count Mata on either list, so I won't either.
 
JM3

JM3

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JM3 said:
Per Chris Hatfield, the Red Sox Puerto Rican league players are Matthew Lugo (#73), Juan Montero (#189) & Nate Tellier (#254).

Nate Tellier (Attleboro, MA), is the only one of the 3 not from Puerto Rico.
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8 games into the Puerto Rican Winter League season, none of these 3 guys have gotten into a game. Nor anyone else associated with the Red Sox as far as I can tell.
 
JM3

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SoxProspects lists Yorberto Mejicano (#134) as playing for Venezuela in the U-23 Baseball World Cup Americas qualifying in Nicaragua from November 24th to 30th.

https://www.soxprospects.com/fall-winter.htm

Meji actually turns 23 on November 21st. Not sure when the qualifying cut off is, but he seems to have made it. The internet is confusing me & seems to imply that you can be 23 & play in the under 23 baseball tournament, which seems silly. Another source says generally you need to be under 23 when the competition starts.

These 12 teams will be going for 4 spots in the championship in China:

The twelve nations will be competing for the four spots for the maximum competition that is scheduled to take place in 2024 in China with twelve participating teams.

The World Cup Qualifier will have Mexico as participant and top seed in Group A and third best in the world (second in America), along with the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Argentina, Honduras and Nicaragua.

In Group B, Venezuela will be the top seed, sixth in the world (third in America) accompanied by Cuba, Panama, Colombia, Curacao and Costa Rica.

The last World Cup Qualifier tournament was held in Mexico, a country in which the host team emerged victorious in the final against Cuba, while Nicaragua took the bronze, with those three countries, along with the fourth in the tournament Venezuela, being the participants for America in the last World Cup.
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https://www.wbscamericas.org/en/news/campeonato-premundial-u23-se-realizar-en-nicaragua-con-la-participacion-de-12-naciones
 
Rovin Romine

Rovin Romine

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Miami (oh, Miami!)
JM3 said:
Interesting list of jobs.
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Yeah, I think I proposed they hire a nutritionist, etc., 15 years ago.

If you're collectively spending millions to acquire your most promising assets (MiL players) why not invest in things that are more likely to lead to their flourishing?

I realize there's a whole network of gyms, private coaches, player-training-alliances, and baseball academies already. But why not let every player on your clubs have an easy opt-in option for food, training, counseling, etc.
 
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