Minor league thread 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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I definitely think both Murphy and Walter aren’t rotation material but they should be given extensive opportunities as relievers. Continue using them as AAA starters but I’d like to see them called up (and sent back down to start) and pitch 2 innings in ML games. Neither has a future as starters.
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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Eric Longenhagen bullish on the Sox' farm system:

This system is extremely healthy. It has a thick layer of impact talent up top, above-average overall depth, and most impressively, it is balanced and heterogenous in the types of prospects that comprise it. There are compact hitters with profiles driven by their bat-to-ball skill, projectable young pitchers, big-bonus infielders with flashy tools, older college arms whose stuff has clearly been designed in a lab — a little bit of everything. With two DSL affiliates, both of which feature a very young contingent of up-the-middle players (most of whom are 17 as of publication), there could be another wave on the way like the fun group of position players passing through Boston’s A-levels right now. This is pretty comfortably a top 10 farm system, and the Rays, Orioles and Red Sox have separated themselves from the Yankees’ and Blue Jays’ systems in a sizable way.

Just because the system is very diverse in its player types doesn’t mean there aren’t clear trends of acquisition happening here. The shorter-levered bats that became common in the Rays system while Chaim Bloom was there are becoming commonplace on Boston’s farm, and bonus points if they switch hit. Boston’s also had success drafting hitterish SoCal amateurs, and not just slam dunks like Marcelo Mayer. From Jarren Duran to Mikey Romero, if you are raking south of Santa Barbara, the Red Sox are probably on you.

Pitching-wise, the Red Sox seem to prefer extremes. There are lots of over-the-top arm slots in this system, or at least guys who backspin their fastballs, and there are also lots of sidearmers (including many developed as starters), but there are very few pitchers with a generic three-quarters delivery in between.

It isn’t enough to be a .500 club in the AL East. Is there sufficient near-term impact in this system to allow the Red Sox to compete within this division again soon? I’m not sure there is. If Mayer becomes a franchise cornerstone, and both Yorke and Rafaela become solid everyday guys as projected, the lineup looks a more like an actual contender’s, but most of the rest of the division still has Boston licked from a pitching standpoint. Shane Drohan is the only potential impact arm with a 2024 ETA. They either need more guys to progress the way Drohan has or to spend on impact pitching.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-red-sox-top-46-prospects-2023/
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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The last paragraph doesn’t seem to match the rest.
It seems to be tacking a short-term projection onto a longer-term view of the system. I think where that view may theoretically be lacking is that if you can backfill the roster with some of these cheap talented guys soon, it allows more leeway to be financially aggressive elsewhere, which is closer to the LAD method and probably would Chaim would like to do.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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The last paragraph doesn’t seem to match the rest.
The whole piece seemed weirdly negative for it to conclude that it’s a top-ten system. Maybe it’s just the nature of the beast, but the blurbs on Mayer and Yorke in particular both seem focused on what they still need to work on. The Yoshida blurb is amusing in an “I’m not owned!” kind of way, though.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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He lined a double in the gap in his first at bat, so fingers crossed?

The SoxProspects folks love the underlying stats, and seem to think it’s only an issue of elevating the ball more (50-ish % ground ball rate).
Yeah, it's a really interesting example of hitting profile over actual results in terms of really good contact rates, plate discipline & exit velocity & not worrying that he hit .228 or whatever.

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1668701969223933952


View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1668705570835005440
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
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He's that guy who prospect writers say will be overwhelmed as he gets higher and it'll take away his obp because pitchers will attack him more. Hoping he can prove them wrong.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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He's that guy who prospect writers say will be overwhelmed as he gets higher and it'll take away his obp because pitchers will attack him more. Hoping he can prove them wrong.
Yeah, I feel like we hear this sort of stuff a lot, but guys with those contact rates and that plate discipline are always getting ragged on for their athleticism or whatever and then just keep hitting and keep getting on base. I mean, he's already in AA -- there's good pitchers throwing lots of strikes in AA.
Pedroia:
65993

Meidroth
65990

Now am I saying he's Dustin Pedroia? No.... of course not... Dustin Pedroia was Dustin Pedroia. He never whiffed. Meidroth whiffs - not much, but he does whiff. And Pedroia had over 1000 plate appearances in the minors before he was called up, and Meidroth only has about 300 so far.

So I'm not saying he's Dustin Pedroia. But dinging a guy because he can lay off bad pitches and take a walk seems a little silly to me. If it was Wilyer Abreu or Nikos Kavadas, striking out over 25% of the time in exchange for those walks, then I'd be worried. But the guy seems to make a shitload of good contact. I don't get what the negative case is for what we've sen before.
 

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Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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Yeah, I feel like we hear this sort of stuff a lot, but guys with those contact rates and that plate discipline are always getting ragged on for their athleticism or whatever and then just keep hitting and keep getting on base. I mean, he's already in AA -- there's good pitchers throwing lots of strikes in AA.
Pedroia:
View attachment 65993

Meidroth
View attachment 65990

Now am I saying he's Dustin Pedroia? No.... of course not... Dustin Pedroia was Dustin Pedroia. He never whiffed. Meidroth whiffs - not much, but he does whiff. And Pedroia had over 1000 plate appearances in the minors before he was called up, and Meidroth only has about 300 so far.

So I'm not saying he's Dustin Pedroia. But dinging a guy because he can lay off bad pitches and take a walk seems a little silly to me. If it was Wilyer Abreu or Nikos Kavadas, striking out over 25% of the time in exchange for those walks, then I'd be worried. But the guy seems to make a shitload of good contact. I don't get what the negative case is for what we've sen before.
The guy this conversation is making me think of is Derrik Gibson, one of my Adopt-a-Prospect guys once upon a time. He was a smaller guy IIRC, lean and wiry, 2nd round pick, and had a .400 OBP as a teenager in Lowell with little pop.

He was exposed pretty quickly once he hit A ball but again, that’s a guy who never showed any pop in a meaningful way once the competition got beyond recent draftees. The ability to draw a walk lost its relevance. Still a long way to go for Meidroth but like you say I’m not sure how you can doubt him based on everything we’ve seen so far.
 

RoDaddy

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DAAAAlbec is 4 for 5 with two more bombs.
And Ryan Fitzgerald with a couple of bombs himself - #'s 9 and 10. He's having a great year and now closing in on an OPS of 1.0. At 28, I really hope he gets a taste of the show. Sad when guys like him come so close but never quite make it.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
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Nov 10, 2006
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The guy this conversation is making me think of is Derrik Gibson, one of my Adopt-a-Prospect guys once upon a time. He was a smaller guy IIRC, lean and wiry, 2nd round pick, and had a .400 OBP as a teenager in Lowell with little pop.

He was exposed pretty quickly once he hit A ball but again, that’s a guy who never showed any pop in a meaningful way once the competition got beyond recent draftees. The ability to draw a walk lost its relevance. Still a long way to go for Meidroth but like you say I’m not sure how you can doubt him based on everything we’ve seen so far.
An interesting comp, and encouraging in a perverse way. Whereas Meidroth isn't know for his pop, he does have a little. Gibson was the definition of a noodlebat, OTOH. He didn't post an ISO over .090, even in a partial season, until he was 24 years old in AAA... and then he didn't do that again until he was 27 years old in Colorado. He was out of baseball the next year. He hit three homeruns in his first 1500 at-bats in the minors. THREE! Meidroth has 10 homeruns in his first 300 PA in the minors, an OBP of .450, and a SLG% of .500. Meidroth is striking out about as much as Devers did at the same levels, but walking twice as much.

Don't mean to overquibble but I'm really excited about his bat - more than I am about Mayer's, to be honest. The hype around Mayer, his whiff rate, and his fast ascension... all of it is giving Yoan Moncada a little: a guy who is really really good if he maintains a patient approach but risks becoming a black hole offensively if his approach degrades.
 

chrisfont9

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The whole piece seemed weirdly negative for it to conclude that it’s a top-ten system. Maybe it’s just the nature of the beast, but the blurbs on Mayer and Yorke in particular both seem focused on what they still need to work on. The Yoshida blurb is amusing in an “I’m not owned!” kind of way, though.
I think it's probably the nature of the beast. After all, Mayer is roughly top 10 now (based on FG's preseason top 100 minus the graduates) and he has plenty of flaws to correct, according to this review. They even labeled Elly de la Cruz a supernova-level-boom OR BUST... so yeah, just keeping it real. I found it all super informative.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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An interesting comp, and encouraging in a perverse way. Whereas Meidroth isn't know for his pop, he does have a little. Gibson was the definition of a noodlebat, OTOH. He didn't post an ISO over .090, even in a partial season, until he was 24 years old in AAA... and then he didn't do that again until he was 27 years old in Colorado. He was out of baseball the next year. He hit three homeruns in his first 1500 at-bats in the minors. THREE! Meidroth has 10 homeruns in his first 300 PA in the minors, an OBP of .450, and a SLG% of .500. Meidroth is striking out about as much as Devers did at the same levels, but walking twice as much.

Don't mean to overquibble but I'm really excited about his bat - more than I am about Mayer's, to be honest. The hype around Mayer, his whiff rate, and his fast ascension... all of it is giving Yoan Moncada a little: a guy who is really really good if he maintains a patient approach but risks becoming a black hole offensively if his approach degrades.
Yeah I feel mostly the same way. It's partially because I followed his every move during SoSH's Adopt days but Gibson is always a guy I think about when someone is walking a ton in the minors. It's easy to say "he will develop more power as he gets stronger" but in reality you're just praying that kind of guy can max out at like Diet Brett Gardner.

Maybe the Meidroth downside comp is more like a Garin Cecchini who showed an advanced approach through the minors and had a pedigree as a "feel for the game" guy and consistently hit the ball well until AAA. THAT SAID, Meidroth is outpacing Cecchini, who never eclipsed 7 dingers in a season.

This conversation is making me miss the days when this forum was really bumping every night with Cuzittt's recaps.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Another HR for Blaze Jordan at GVL. OPS almost .900. Any chance he sees Portland at some point this summer? Still only 20.5 years-old so no rush but kind of getting the sense he needs to be challenged more. No idea about his defense though.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Drohan with another decent outing, 6ip 3er 7k/1bb but did give up two homers.

Edit: Re: Blaze, I didn’t catch a gun reading on the highlights but at least two or three of his recent homers have been fastballs pulled to LF or LCF (today was the latter) which has been an area of some concern.
 
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JM3

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The Gray Eagle

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If Jackie Bradley Jr. stole a lot of bags and also played SS, that to me would be a really useful player. Maybe not a star, but a guy who can help win games in a lot of ways. That's what I'm hoping for Ceddanne.

Something to keep in mind when looking at minor league stats-- the game is played differently than in the majors. The goal isn't winning every game or getting the best possible result in every at-bat, it's trying to make the player better in the long run:
The Sox saw a player with a chance to be an impactful everyday center fielder, but with a need for growth.
They have tried to work with Rafaela to be more selective; in spring training, for instance, they at times told Rafaela he could swing only once per at-bat.
“We’re trying to make sure that he’s internally thinking about when he does swing, he wants to make sure that at-bat ends with that one swing, instead of having to take three or four swings to end the at-bat on his terms,” said Clark.
“He wants to hit the ball hard and far, and making sure that he gets those pitches to do it on, it’s important. Understanding that starts to mold an approach.
“That was one of those exercises we like to do with some players where we find that they’re kind of out there just trying to chase hits. We start to reel them back a little bit to watch the game from a little bit more of a constraint-driven at-bat.”
Of course, putting constraints on a hitter can be counterintuitive and even uncomfortable.
That was certainly the case for Rafaela, who both in spring training and over the first five weeks of the season in Portland not only continued to chase but also seemed tentative when he did swing, resulting in late contact and a lot of ground balls. In his first 26 games, he hit just .236/.263/.327 with a 25 percent strikeout rate and 4 percent walk rate.
“[Being tentative] was a bit of a problem at the beginning of the season,” Rafaela said in May. “I wasn’t really pulling the trigger. I wasn’t, ‘Yes, yes, no.’ I was more like, ‘No, no, yes.’ I was missing balls, swinging and missing.
“So I switched how I am, just keep doing my thing [attacking pitches], and just letting the bad ones go. I’m starting to get it right now.”
Rafaela offered that assessment in mid-May. Three days later, he went 2 for 3 with a pair of walks, marking the start of a 26-game stretch entering Thursday in which he hit .337/.388/.525 with a 15 percent strikeout rate and 8 percent walk rate.
The Sox believe the surge reflects improvements in pitch recognition and approach, as well as purposeful work behind the scenes that will give Rafaela a foundation to compete against a higher level of competition. A promotion to Triple A could be nearing.
There's no hurry, the important thing is helping him be the best he can be in the majors one day. This guy is really fun to watch, so hopefully it works out for him.

This is encouraging too:
Lefthander Chris Murphy has excelled since his move to the bullpen. In four relief appearances (three in Triple A, one in the big leagues), he has yet to allow an earned run in 10⅓ innings while striking out 14 and walking two.
He had terrible numbers as a starter, but maybe he can be the left-handed Winckowski soon. Though it's good to remember that Winckowski had to take his lumps as a rookie in the majors last year before helping us this year.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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Small sample size and all that, but Yoeilin Cespedes is lighting up the DSL. I wonder how long before Boston promotes him to Ft Myers?