Minor league thread 2023

JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I wonder what this is about?

10/04/23 Portland Sea Dogs placed SS Brainer Bonaci on the restricted list.
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He was supposed to be in the AFL lineup yesterday but wasn't & is out today. Don't see a word about it on Twitter either.
 
Jimbodandy

Jimbodandy

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JM3 said:
Cool story? Most of the time they end up moving people to where I already had them. Probably something to do with bureaucracy. & not sure what that has to do with different definitions of ceilings?

Obviously they have a ton more insight than me & actually watch games in person & stuff & their work is awesome & I couldn't do what I do without them.
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I love having different rankings by people who are so invested. Even if you weren't publishing lists and Soxprospects didn't exist, we'd be comparing BP, Law, and a bunch of other competing top-100 lists, all of whom differ frequently. As you wrote, it's different definition of ceilings. Some folks use MiLB productivity more, some statcast, some emphasize K rates. Some folks care more or less about pedigree like signing bonuses and draft position. Some apply bigger factors for fielding position (i.e., is this guy really a shortstop or center fielder), and some have varying views of the likelihood of a guy sticking at SS/CF. Nothing wrong with differing approaches or assessment. If anything, it gives us more to think about.

[/soapbox]


I think that it's way too early to pencil in Anderson as a corner infielder. Time will tell of course, but he doesn't seem like a guy who's going to get too bulky to play SS. We don't know if he has the wheels, but we also don't know that he doesn't.
 
JM3

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
15,348
Jimbodandy said:
I love having different rankings by people who are so invested. Even if you weren't publishing lists and Soxprospects didn't exist, we'd be comparing BP, Law, and a bunch of other competing top-100 lists, all of whom differ frequently. As you wrote, it's different definition of ceilings. Some folks use MiLB productivity more, some statcast, some emphasize K rates. Some folks care more or less about pedigree like signing bonuses and draft position. Some apply bigger factors for fielding position (i.e., is this guy really a shortstop or center fielder), and some have varying views of the likelihood of a guy sticking at SS/CF. Nothing wrong with differing approaches or assessment. If anything, it gives us more to think about.

[/soapbox]


I think that it's way too early to pencil in Anderson as a corner infielder. Time will tell of course, but he doesn't seem like a guy who's going to get too bulky to play SS. We don't know if he has the wheels, but we also don't know that he doesn't.
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What's the Anderson portion of the conversation? Is that something I did or SoxProspects?

This is their write-up:

Field: Might be pushed off shortstop due to his size and the organization will develop him at both shortstop and third base. Already tall for the position and while he is fluid in the field, does not have the twitch most shortstops do these days. Could develop into a solid defender at third base or maybe even second base.
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https://soxprospects.com/players/anderson-antonio.htm

Which I tend to agree with. I still think his ceiling is good Major League shortstop, but I don't think that's his most likely outcome. I do have him listed as a SS on my rankings spreadsheet, but that's kind of arbitrary.

This is the MLB scouting report:

Anderson is a fringy runner and lacks the twitchy athleticism to remain at shortstop, his high school position. The best-case scenario is that he becomes an offensive second baseman, though he may not have enough quickness to play up the middle. He does have a strong arm that has clocked fastballs up to 91 mph on the mound, so third base is his likely destination.
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Manny Machado feels like a decent ceiling comp almost all the way around, but especially on defense? Machado played a few seasons of SS, but was below average, whereas he has been a very good defensive 3B in his career. They're both 6'3 & not that fast. Obviously Machado offense is probably overly-aggressive even for a ceiling...but that's kind of the problem with ceilings for 18 y/o kids...they're very high & the floor is very, very low.
 
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Jimbodandy

Jimbodandy

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JM3 said:
What's the Anderson portion of the conversation? Is that something I did or SoxProspects?

This is their write-up:



https://soxprospects.com/players/anderson-antonio.htm

Which I tend to agree with. I still think his ceiling is good Major League shortstop, but I don't think that's his most likely outcome. I do have him listed as a SS on my rankings spreadsheet, but that's kind of arbitrary.

This is the MLB scouting report:



Manny Machado feels like a decent ceiling comp almost all the way around, but especially on defense? Machado played a few seasons of SS, but was below average, whereas he has been a very good defensive 3B in his career. They're both 6'3 & not that fast. Obviously Machado offense is probably overly-aggressive even for a ceiling...but that's kind of the problem with ceilings for 18 y/o kids...they're very high & the floor is very, very low.
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I was referencing Anderson's ranking as a corner from Saturday's post (#1325). Noticed that you're still undecided on that.

I agree that it's more likely that he ends up at third or even corner outfielder eventually, but it really depends on if he slows down imo. He doesn't have a huge frame, so I don't expect him to end up looking like Casas. If he maintains the athleticism that he has now and perhaps even improves his short-speed quickness, I don't see why he couldn't stay. SP seems to be assuming that he bulks up some, which might be a fair assumption. Just seems early to me to assume that. Even their report has him as fluid and with plenty of arm, just not super springy.
 
JM3

JM3

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Jimbodandy said:
I was referencing Anderson's ranking as a corner from Saturday's post (#1325). Noticed that you're still undecided on that.

I agree that it's more likely that he ends up at third or even corner outfielder eventually, but it really depends on if he slows down imo. He doesn't have a huge frame, so I don't expect him to end up looking like Casas. If he maintains the athleticism that he has now and perhaps even improves his short-speed quickness, I don't see why he couldn't stay. SP seems to be assuming that he bulks up some, which might be a fair assumption. Just seems early to me to assume that. Even their report has him as fluid and with plenty of arm, just not super springy.
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I appear to be in true off season form - I had zero recollection of that lol

It goes to my point about top 10 lists by position not being a great tool for much more than clickbait...unless you're treating each position as a separate thing & including a prospect's potential at that other position as a chunk of the equation. But then you get things like Mayer being their #1 2B prospect, which is kind of pointless as well.
 
Chainsaw318

Chainsaw318

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JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/SoxProspects/status/1710303280335647071
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Ian Cundall talks up your favorite player of all time, Corey Rosier a bit in this pod, somewhere around the 40-45 minute mark.

Rosier to the AFL making sense as a reward for a good season, a chance to play against advanced talent, and see how his skills show.

Cundall likes his game in the revamped rules - a guy who likes to run, knows his swing is geared for line drives and not power.

He didn’t say to prepare the plaque for the Hall, but I’m sure that got cut for time.
 
JM3

JM3

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Chainsaw318 said:
Ian Cundall talks up your favorite player of all time, Corey Rosier a bit in this pod, somewhere around the 40-45 minute mark.

Rosier to the AFL making sense as a reward for a good season, a chance to play against advanced talent, and see how his skills show.

Cundall likes his game in the revamped rules - a guy who likes to run, knows his swing is geared for line drives and not power.

He didn’t say to prepare the plaque for the Hall, but I’m sure that got cut for time.
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Will have to check it out later. Did they say what happened to poor Bonaci???
 
JM3

JM3

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I doubt it, no one including SP has Tweeted about Bonaci at all since the 3rd.

@sittingstill

Can you get the SP people on this story? lol

10/04/23 Portland Sea Dogs placed SS Brainer Bonaci on the restricted list.
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sittingstill

sittingstill

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JM3 said:
I doubt it, no one including SP has Tweeted about Bonaci at all since the 3rd.

@sittingstill

Can you get the SP people on this story? lol
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Ha! All I can say is I've got nothing on either Bonaci or Guzman. Saw Guzman in spring training but that was it. Was looking forward to seeing Bonaci in the AFL since he wasn't playing with Greenville either time I saw them this year.
 
JM3

JM3

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sittingstill said:
Ha! All I can say is I've got nothing on either Bonaci or Guzman. Saw Guzman in spring training but that was it. Was looking forward to seeing Bonaci in the AFL since he wasn't playing with Greenville either time I saw them this year.
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Lol I appreciate the update, even if it's a non-update.

I've been irrationally worried about Smil since I started doing my prospect lists & found out he was on the Restricted List.

05/03/23 FCL Red Sox placed RHP Smil Guzman on the restricted list.
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JM3

JM3

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I'm going to have to get actual sources & start breaking news here lol

Or alternatively I guess I could get on Twitter & bug the SP guys myself. Never actually Tweeted or X'd, though. Strictly C&P of links.
 
JM3

JM3

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Scouting report of the Zach Fogell interview:

1) Parker & Hand are not the most exciting interviewers.

2) I still kind of enjoy this, though, because it's a decent little behind the scenes look.

3) I was a bit concerned when Fogell said he was "gyped" out of a start.

4) There were little subtle things I liked, though, like him not telling his mom when he found out the Red Sox were drafting him so she could see the look on her face when she found out on TV.

5) I think his main problem is he's short (5'10) & doesn't have elite stuff.

6) I do like that he's a Red Sox fan growing up in Rhode Island. His favorite pitcher growing up was Lester & favorite hitter was Papi. His mom had recently moved to Shrewsbury so he was watching the draft from MA.

7) Conclusion: Probably won't make it past org arm, but we shall see.

View: https://twitter.com/SoxSpects/status/1709961230205485317
 
JM3

JM3

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Trennor O'Donnell interview:

1) They're still not great at the interviewing thing.

2) O'Donnell is from Dallas & loves fishing & hunting, but does not root for the Cowboys.

3) He's never been to Boston.

4) He grew like 8 inches in 1 year in high school (he's 6'7) & it made him awkward for a while.

5) He says his fastball sits around 93-95 but he can get it up to 97 on a good day, but he considers himself a control pitcher & prides himself on his low & away fastball.

6) He says he modeled his mechanics on Gerit Cole.

It wasn't like an exciting interview, buuuut for some reason I'm a tiny bit more optimistic on his chances of success than I was before.

View: https://twitter.com/SoxSpects/status/1710422825679339738
 
JM3

JM3

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Cade Feeney interview:

1) Henrique is a bit more lively than Hand, but I'm not sure why I want to listen to them talk about the Vikings for 5+ minutes.

2) Feeney is from North Dakota & is family friends with Carson Wentz's family. He likes hunting, especially duck & pheasant, & fishing.

3) It seems like there may be room for analytical growth to his game after spending his whole life in North Dakota.

4) He described himself as a 3-pitch pitcher & kind of implied that his job is just to battle & keep his team in the game.

5) They want him to throw his sweeper a bit harder & add velocity this off season.

6) He hasn't modeled his game after any particular pitcher, but was given a Bieber comp recently.

7) Thought about playing college football as well. QB & safety. The athleticism seems like a plus since he's not a particularly big guy.

I can't decide how I feel about the interview overall. Probably neutral impact on my valuation. Could be intriguing if he adds velo & a 4th pitch.

View: https://twitter.com/SoxSpects/status/1710757518555713598
 
JM3

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1711331303050600621


Here's the top 30 in that article with my rankings & SP (if top 60).

1. Christopher Troye 39.5% (87 strikeouts, 220 batters faced) - #36/#39

2. Wikelman Gonzalez 35.2% (168 strikeouts, 477 batters faced) - #9/#8

3. Yordanny Monegro 34.6% (93 strikeouts, 269 batters faced) - #7/#25

4. Dalton Rogers 33.2% (140 strikeouts, 422 batters faced) - #38/#36

4. Caleb Bolden 33.2% (84 strikeouts, 253 batters faced) - #94/NA

6. Ryan Zeferjahn 32.4% (70 strikeouts, 216 batters faced) - #72/#53

7. Isaac Coffey 31.5% 155 strikeouts, 492 batters faced) - #28/#46

8. Alex Hoppe 30.3% (64 strikeouts, 211 batters faced) - #39/#32

9 Angel Bastardo 29.4% (149 strikeouts, 506 batters faced) - #26/#30

10. Luis Perales 29.3% (115 strikeouts, 393 batters faced) - #6/#7

11. Ryan Fernandez 29.1% (67 strikeouts, 230 batters faced) - #41/#31

12. Luis De La Rosa 28.9% (88 strikeouts, 304 batters faced) - #50/NA

13. Luis Guerrero 28.7% (68 strikeouts, 237 batters faced) - #16/#29

14. Noah Dean 28.5% (86 strikeouts, 302 batters faced) - 66/NA

15. Chih-Jung Liu 28.4% (145 strikeouts, 510 batters faced) - 84/NA

16. Railin Perez 27% (69 strikeouts, 256 batters faced) - #113/NA

17. Cam Booser 26.7% (66 strikeouts, 247 batters faced) - #160/NA

18. Felix Cepeda 26.4% (60 strikeouts, 227 batters faced) - #51/#54

19. Oddanier Mosqueda 26.2% (74 strikeouts, 282 batters faced) - #100/NA

20. Hunter Dobbins 26.1% (122 strikeouts, 468 batters faced) - #20/#28

21. Brendan Cellucci 26.1% (63 strikeouts, 241 batters faced) - #226/NA

22. Ryan Miller 25.8% (67 strikeouts, 260 batters faced) - #230/NA

23. Rio Gomez 25.5% (88 strikeouts, 345 batters faced) - #159/NA

24. Grant Gambrell 25% (134 strikeouts, 536 batters faced) - #33/#38

25. Jacob Webb 24.4% (65 strikeouts, 266 batters faced) - #109/NA

25. Casey Cobb 24.3% (63 strikeouts, 259 batters faced) - #245/NA

25. Theo Denlinger 24.3% (51 strikeouts, 210 batters faced) - #114/NA

27. Chris Murphy 24.2% (61 strikeouts, 252 batters faced) - graduated

28. Shane Drohan 23.4% (129 strikeouts, 552 batters faced) - #23/#13

29. Wyatt Olds 23.2% (75 strikeouts, 323 batters faced) - #121/NA

30. Brendan Nail 23.1% (54 strikeouts, 234 batters faced) - #111/NA
 
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