Minor league thread 2023

JM3

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& some more scouting stuff...

https://www.ncsasports.org/baseball-recruiting/international/canterbury/camberwell-grammar-school/adam-bates6

Which includes a personal statement:

PERSONAL STATEMENT

I am a growing 6ft1in pitcher from Sydney, Australia. I am committed to my development as a player and a person, and I am looking for a college and coaching staff who will improve me as a player and as a man as I grow and mature.

My self confidence and self belief, plus my hard worked-on abilities, have me tagged as the "go to" player in the big situations. I led my team in pitching on our way to a Silver Medal at Senior League Nationals last season, including a 12 Strikeout 4 inn relief outing and have been identified by our state association to be part of the high performance program. I have recently been selected into the Baseball Australia U/19 team that played against one of our National League teams (Brisbane Bandits).

Recently I have been added to the rotation of 1st grade in our State League at 16

I would like to bring my abilities to an American college to improve myself, contribute to my team but to also experience what the college experience could provide as it is so different from my own.
 

JM3

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Timeline:

Bloom fired 9/14
Bates signed 9/19
Bates officially signed 10/23
 

JM3

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Came across that while looking for stuff on Joey Stock. Is it weird that I feel guilty for ranking Stock #247? Probably.
 

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1716967591414034578


I was listening to the Dobbins one earlier.

For some reason I lol'd when he said Troye was the most Texas guy from California ever. Something about Dobbins' demeanor makes me feel like he's going to make it.

He said he never rooted for any team in MLB growing up because he always planned on playing in MLB & he didn't want to make it harder.
 

JM3

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Didn’t the Sox have James Albury from Australia a few years ago? And didn’t his mom post here or something? Or was that just a dream?
That's relating to the MLB team, not the org. Albury played for the GCL Red Sox in 2004 & 2005.
 

JM3

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View: https://twitter.com/EdHand89/status/1716967591414034578


I was listening to the Dobbins one earlier.

For some reason I lol'd when he said Troye was the most Texas guy from California ever. Something about Dobbins' demeanor makes me feel like he's going to make it.

He said he never rooted for any team in MLB growing up because he always planned on playing in MLB & he didn't want to make it harder.
Finished listening to the Dobbins pod. Unexpected shoutout to Dylan Spacke after only Guerrero when asked about relievers with the best stuff. & apparently it's "SPAY-key" not "SPAH-key" like I pronounce it in my head.

He also compared Meidroth to Pedey.
 

JM3

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The biggest downside to the Breslow hire is that I'll no longer be able to use 2 initials on the prospect spreadsheet.

Bloom is CDB & Breslow is CAB. Not sure if I'm going to go with that or like last names or 1st names. Open to suggestions.
 

greenmountains

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The biggest downside to the Breslow hire is that I'll no longer be able to use 2 initials on the prospect spreadsheet.

Bloom is CDB & Breslow is CAB. Not sure if I'm going to go with that or like last names or 1st names. Open to suggestions.
I think it's Bloom or Bres
 

sittingstill

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Unexpected shoutout to Dylan Spacke after only Guerrero when asked about relievers with the best stuff. & apparently it's "SPAY-key" not "SPAH-key" like I pronounce it in my head.
Portland's SoundCloud is your friend--players saying their own names. (I always got "Cellucci" wrong as I assumed it was pronounced the same as the former Mass governor. Also I hear all kinds of variants of Rosier, even from folks calling games he's in, so it's nice to have a definitive reference. I'm planning a campaign to get all the affiliates to do this next year.)
 

JM3

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Portland's SoundCloud is your friend--players saying their own names. (I always got "Cellucci" wrong as I assumed it was pronounced the same as the former Mass governor. Also I hear all kinds of variants of Rosier, even from folks calling games he's in, so it's nice to have a definitive reference. I'm planning a campaign to get all the affiliates to do this next year.)
I saw you referencing that on Twitter before. I'll have to check it out sometime. & if I ever start a Podcast I'll be sure to have them all down lol
 

JM3

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So y'all remember Marques Johnson? The guy we traded for Maurico Llovera? He had a 6.55 ERA in 34.1 innings at Salem (1.60 WHIP) when we traded him to the Giants.

With the Giants here were his stats for San Jose in A-Ball...

11 games
18.1 innings
0 earned runs
9 hits
9 walks
20 strikeouts

0.00 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

He's currently playing in the Arizona Fall League where has pitched 2 innings & allowed a run.

Of course, his xFIP only went from 4.17 to 3.89, so can probably mostly be chalked up to noise, but it's kind of interesting.
 

JM3

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On the flip side, Bradley Blalock, who was traded at the deadline for Luis Urias, had a 2.55 ERA in 35.1 innings at high-A Greenville, but after the trade to the Brewers, had a 5.27 ERA in 13.2 innings. His xFIP only went from 3.98 to 4.00, though.

The tiny sample size lesson? Sell high on pitchers over-performing their xFIP by a lot.
 

JM3

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I'm going to declare this next segment (while I'm looking for potential sell high guys) "Compare random pitchers to Brayan Bello at the same level".

Jedixson Paez (19 y/o, A-Ball): 84.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 7.8 k/9, 1.3 bb/9 (#33)
Luis De La Rosa (20 y/o, A-Ball): 70.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 11.3 k/9, 5.1 bb/9 (#50)
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (19 y/o, A-Ball): 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 8.3 k/9, 4.4 bb/9 (#30)
Luis Perales (20 y/o, A-Ball): 53.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 12.9 k/9, 4.7 bb/9 (#6)
Yordanny Monegro (20 y/o, A-Ball): 40.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 13.3 k/9, 3.8 bb/9 (#7)
Brayan Bello (20 y/o, A-Ball): 117.2 IP, 5.43 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 9.1 k/9, 2.9 bb/9 (2019)

I was planning on doing it all in 1 post, but will just do it by level. DSL is going to be next...
 
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JM3

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1st, some random affiliate history (Part 1 of 3):

The Red Sox 1st had a Foreign Rookie League affiliate in 1996, which they shared with the Astros. They have also shared affiliates with the Brewers, Diamondbacks & Padres. Since 2006, they have had at least 1 of their own affiliates, & since 2015 they have had 2 each year except 2017 when they only had 1.

The Red Sox 1st had a Rookie League affiliate in 1988 which they shared with the Mariners for 1 season, & then have been Red Sox only since. Players on that '89 Gulf Coast League team included Jeff Bagwell & Paul Quantrill. They actually did have Appalachian League affiliates in '65 (Harlan, KY) & '66 (Covington, VA). Amos Otis played on that '65 team.

The Red Sox 1st had a short-season A-Ball affiliate in 1968 in Jamestown, NY. Cecil Cooper was on that team. They moved to Williamsport, NY in 1971 (Jim Rice) & '72 (Don Aase), before moving to Elmira, NY from '73 to '92. That '73 team included the (somewhat) talented Allen Ripley. From '93 to '95 the team was in Utica, NY. In '96 they moved to Lowell, MA. Shea Hillenbrand was on that inaugural team. They stayed in Lowell until short-season A-Ball became no longer a thing after the 2019 season. Ceddanne Rafaela & Chris Murphy were on that final team.

The history of the Red Sox A-Ball affiliates are long & winding & maybe I'll explore it more some other time, but they started in 1933 in Reading, PA. Most players from that early affiliate ended up playing at the highest level, but no one on the team had more career bWAR than Dom Dallesandro's 8.2. They moved to Knoxville, TN in '35, Elmira, NY in '36. Rabbit Maranville played on that Elmira team in his age 44 season after a 44.1 bWAR MLB career. He put up a .766 OPS (3rd on the team) & in 499 PAs had 53 walks & 12 strikeouts. They moved to Hazelton, PA in '37, & then to Scranton, PA in '39, where they stayed until '52 when they moved to Albany, NY. Former Red Sox GM Haywood Sullivan was on that '52 team. They spent '55 in Montgomery, AL before returning to Albany for the '56 season. Earl Wilson was on both of those teams. In '58 they moved to Allentown, PA, & in '61 they moved to Johnstown, PA & a fielded a team that included Wilbur Wood. In '62, Wood (20) went to York, PA with the team.

The 1st Red Sox affiliates seem to have been formed in 1932 & are classified as B-Ball affiliates in Wilmington, NC & Hazleton, PA. They had a long history of B-Ball affiliates after that it appears, which I don't feel like getting into, but to say that some of them seem to have become A-Ball affiliates in 1963 when they all of a sudden had 3, which were located in Waterloo, IA (Bob Montgomery), Wellsville, NY (Tony C & George Scott), & Winston-Salem, NC (Mike Andrews). In '66 Wellsville got swapped out for Oneonta, NY (Amos Otis & Ken Brett). Oneonta lasted only 1 year before the team moved to Greenville, SC in '67 (Billy Conigliaro). In '69, Waterloo was swapped out for Winter Haven, FL (Dick Pole...smh). In '72 they dropped down to 2 A-Ball affiliates, losing Greenville for over 30 years.

Winston-Salem & Winter Haven stayed strong until '85 when Winston-Salem was swapped out for Greensboro, NC (Jim Corsi, who I played basketball with once long ago). In '88 Greensboro became Lynchburg, VA (Scott Cooper & Bob Zupcic). For some reason after the '89 season, the 2 affiliates that were classified as A-Ball were reclassified to High-A, & then Red Sox did not have an A-Ball affiliate again until the Michigan Battle Cats in '95. They were located in Battle Creek, MI & featured Donnie Sadler, Carl Pavano & Brian Rose. In '99 they moved to Augusta, GA & featured a young pitcher whose name I have not thought of in a very long time - Justin Duchsherer. He had an 0.22 ERA in 41 innings.

In 2005, they moved back to Greenville, SC & became the Greenville Bombers (in their previous iteration they were simply the Greenville Red Sox). They became the Greenville Drive in '06, & have kept that name since. They stayed in Greenville until 2021 when Greenville became the high-A affiliate & Salem, VA (C Note, Walter) became the A-ball affiliate.
 

JM3

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Random Affiliate History Part 2 of 3:

As mentioned previously, in '90 Winter Haven (Quantrill) & Lynchburg (John Flaherty, Greg Blosser) became classified as "Adv A" affiliates. In '93, Lynchburg moved to Ft. Lauderdale, FL (Lou Merloni). & then in '94 Ft. Lauderdale moved to Sarasota, FL. That team included many future Red Sox players, including Nomar, Jeff Suppan, Ron Mahay, & Merloni again. In '95, Lynchburg went away & it was just Sarasota (Aaron Sele, Trot Nixon, 4 innings of Roger Clemens). This was the status quo until '05 when the affiliate moved to Wilmington, DE (Anibal Sanchez). In '07 they moved to Lancaster, CA (Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard). & in '09 they found a home in Salem, VA (Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Anthony Rizzo), where they stayed until Salem became the A-Ball affiliate in '21 & Greenville, SC became the high-A affiliate (Bello, Murphy, Walter).

The Red Sox 1st fielded a AA affiliate in 1934 in Syracuse, NY. I believe Spud Chandler had both the best name & the best MLB career of anyone on that team, albeit primarily for the Yankees. They added a 2nd AA affiliate in San Diego, CA in 1936. That team included Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr & Vince Dimaggio (Joe & Dom's older brother). In '37, the Syracuse affiliate was moved to Minneapolis where they became the Millers. Of the 20 hitters to take PAs that season, 18 had MLB careers either before or after. In '38, San Diego went away & Minneapolis had the only Red Sox AA team. It featured a 19 y/o Ted Williams who had a 1.182 OPS. In '39 they moved to Louisville, KY where they stayed until '46 when Louisville became the AAA affiliate & New Orleans became the AA affiliate. The New Orleans Pelicans featured a player named Johnny Peacock. In '48 they moved to Birmingham, AL (Walt Dropo), where they stayed through '52. However they did not have a AA affiliate from '53 until '56 when the Oklahoma City Indians finished the season 48-106. In '58 they moved to Memphis, TN & became less generically offensive. The Chickasaws (known as the "Chicks" were 69-84 in their only season as a Red Sox affiliate.

The Red Sox were again without a AA affiliate until '63 when they found a home in Reading, PA (Rico Petrocelli), where they last had an affiliate in '33-'34. The new Reading affiliate also only lasted 2 years, giving way to the Pittsfield Red Sox in '65. The team won the Eastern League championship & featured George Scott & Reggie Smith. Carlton Fisk played on the final Pittsfield team in '69 before they moved to Pawtucket, RI in '70. Fisk was also part of the 1st Pawtucket season. In '73, Pawtucket became the Red Sox AAA affiliate & Bristol, CT took over as the AA affiliate. The first team featured Jim Rice & Fred Lynn, but this was the only Bristol team to have a losing season as they had a winning record the next 9 years & won league titles in '75, '78 & '81. The final Bristol team included Oil Can Boyd, Al Nipper, Steve Lyons & Marc Sullivan. In '83, they moved to New Britain, CT. The team included a 20 y/o Roger Clemens (1.38 ERA in 52 innings), Kevin Romine, Pat Dodson, Tom Bolton, & some of the other players from the previous season. The team stayed in New Britain until '95 when they moved to Trenton, NJ. The team included Nomar, Trot, Sele, Suppan, Merloni, & the immortal Vaughn Eshelman. In 2003, they moved to Portland, ME, where they have resided ever since. That 1st Portland team included YOUK & 3 PAs from future Red Sox org hire Gabe Kapler.
 

JM3

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Random Affiliate History Part 3 of 3:

I'm not really going to get into the "other" affiliates the Red Sox had that much...but the year they had the most affiliates was actually 1937 when they had 11:

1) Minneapolis (AA)
2) San Diego (AA) - Did I mention that their affiliate was named the Padres?
3) Hazleton (A)
4) Brockville, ON (C)
5) Moultrie, GA (D, Tex Hughson)
6) Little Rock, AR (A-1) - Just some elite names from top to bottom on this team including Emerson Dickman, Dick Midkiff, Jennings Poindexter, Skinny Graham, Red Nonnenkamp & Mule Shirley, who all made it to MLB at one point.
7) Elizabethtown, TN (D)
8) Centreville, MD (D)
9) Mansfield, OH (D)
10) Canton, OH (C)
11) Rocky Mount, NC (B)

Anyway, on to AAA. Their 1st AAA affiliate was Louisville, KY in 1946 after they were promoted (kinda) from AA. They featured a wide variety of one-time players at the highest level who I have not heard of. For one year only, in '47, they added a 2nd AAA affiliate, the Toronto Maple Leafs. From '48 to '55, Louisville was the Red Sox only AAA affiliate. The final team included 2 LHP named Bob Smith. The Red Sox were without a AAA affiliate until the Minneapolis Millers were revived in 1958. They were player managed by a 32 y/o Gene Mauch. This was Mauch's 2nd of 29 years as a Manager (his 1st was 5 years prior for the AA Atlanta Crackers, & his 1st MLB gig coming 2 years later for the Phillies). In '61 they moved to Seattle & became the Rainiers. They were managed by Johnny Pesky & players included Dick Radatz. In '65, the Toronto Maple Leafs were reborn & were managed by Dick Williams, who was promoted to Red Sox manager in '67. The team included Jack Lamabe (this deep dive is helping me understand more about certain screen names).

They moved back to Louisville in 1968 until '73 when they 1st made Pawtucket, RI their home (after 3 years as the AA affiliate). That team included Jim Rice, Rick Burleson & Cecil Cooper. For one year, in '76, they were known as the Rhode Island Red Sox, but they stayed in Pawtucket until the move to Worcester in '21 (Casas). I believe this 47 season run ending in '19 is the longest of any Red Sox affiliate. I guess it's technically 50 consecutive if you include the AA years.

Based on a quick eyeballing, that leader board for consecutive seasons as an affiliate is something like:

1) Pawtucket 50
2) Lowell 24
3T) Winston-Salem 22
3T) Winterhaven 22
5T) Portland 20 (current)
5T) Elmira 20
7) Greenville 18 (current)
8) Louisville 17
9) Salem 14 (current)
10) Scranton 13

Link I used for these posts if anyone is interested in doing their own digging:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/affiliate.cgi?id=BOS
 

JM3

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I keep refreshing the transactions page every couple hours but slacker Breslow is failing to do anything. Clock's ticking.
 

JM3

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I'm going to declare this next segment (while I'm looking for potential sell high guys) "Compare random pitchers to Brayan Bello at the same level".

Jedixson Paez (19 y/o, A-Ball): 84.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 7.8 k/9, 1.3 bb/9 (#33)
Luis De La Rosa (20 y/o, A-Ball): 70.1 IP, 2.94 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 11.3 k/9, 5.1 bb/9 (#50)
Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (19 y/o, A-Ball): 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 4.09 xFIP, 1.27 WHIP, 8.3 k/9, 4.4 bb/9 (#30)
Luis Perales (20 y/o, A-Ball): 53.1 IP, 3.21 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, 12.9 k/9, 4.7 bb/9 (#6)
Yordanny Monegro (20 y/o, A-Ball): 40.2 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 13.3 k/9, 3.8 bb/9 (#7)
Brayan Bello (20 y/o, A-Ball): 117.2 IP, 5.43 ERA, 3.52 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 9.1 k/9, 2.9 bb/9 (2019)

I was planning on doing it all in 1 post, but will just do it by level. DSL is going to be next...
Am I going to continue this Bello segment or look for pitching prospects to sell high on? Probably not. If Breslow is so good, let's just keep them all & turn them all into Bello+. Piece of cake. I'm encouraged that Breslow comes from a franchise with a top 5 farm system, so it is clearly something they value there.
 

JM3

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Here are some different reports on the Cubs system...

4. Chicago Cubs
2023 preseason rank
: 12
2022 midseason rank: 10
2022 preseason rank: 18
2021 midseason rank: 18
Top 100 prospects: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF (No. 12); Cade Horton, RHP (No. 30); Owen Caissie, OF (No. 68); Kevin Alcántara, OF (No. 76); Ben Brown, RHP (No. 91)
The Cubs' system is stronger than it has been since 2015 and much better equipped to produce pitching than it was eight years ago. Horton, Brown and Jordan Wicks are close to taking the mound at Wrigley Field, and Jackson Ferris will need more time but comes with a high ceiling. There's no shortage of position players on the way to Chicago, including the best defender (Crow-Armstrong) and power hitter (Caissie) in the Minors. Crow-Armstrong, Caissie, Alcántara and Brown all joined the organization via trades.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

5. Chicago Cubs (Previous: 9)
  1. Top 10 Prospects
    1. OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Tier 1)
    2. RHP Cade Horton (Tier 1)
    3. RHP Ben Brown (Tier 1)
    4. OF Kevin Alcántara (Tier 1)
    5. SS Matt Shaw (Tier 2)
    6. LHP Jordan Wicks (Tier 2)
    7. OF Owen Caissie (Tier 2)
    8. C Miguel Amaya (Tier 2)
    9. LHP Jackson Ferris (Tier 3)
    10. 1B Matt Mervis (Tier 3)
    A Cubs system that has struggled for years to develop pitching now has two Tier 1 pitching prospects in Cade Horton and Ben Brown, with Brown jumping up a level since the last update. Owen Caissie and Miguel Amaya also moved up to Tier 2, and overall depth is the biggest reason this is now a top-five system.
    The Cubs have often targeted MLB-ready college hitters who can reach the majors quickly in the past, with guys like Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner fitting that profile. Maryland shortstop Matt Shaw fits into that same category, and he hit .341/.445/.697 with 20 doubles, 24 home runs and 69 RBI to win Big Ten Player of the Year honors this spring.
View: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082392-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2023-mlb-draft
 

JM3

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Fangraphs has the Cubs #1 & the Red Sox #2.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

Kiley McDaniel had the Cubs #2 in his mid-season update.

According to the ranking from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, the Cubs currently own the second-best farm system in baseball, behind only the Baltimore Orioles in that category.

McDaniel has praise for outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, whom MLB Pipeline has ranked as the No. 12 prospect in all of baseball. He also believes that pitcher Cade Horton could “potentially become the top pitching prospect in all of baseball” by next summer.
https://www.nbcsportschicago.com/mlb/chicago-cubs/cubs-news/espn-insider-ranks-cubs-farm-system-as-one-of-tops-in-baseball/502696/

& this is kind of an overview from August:

FanGraphs: 2nd
ESPN: 2nd
Pipeline: 4th
Baseball America: 6th
There are five players in the Top 100 of MLB.com's best prospects list.

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 12), RHP Cade Horton (No. 30), OF Owen Caissie (No. 68), OF Kevin Alcántara (No. 76) and RHP Ben Brown (No. 91) are the biggest names in the pipeline.
https://www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/chicago-cubs-farm-system-now-ranked-among-best-in-all-mlb-brad9
 

JM3

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A little bit of a deeper dive into some of the Cubs top pitching prospects & recent graduates:

Justin Steele (28) - 2014 5th round pick

173.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP 9.1 k/9, 1.9 bb/9, 4.9 fWAR

Breslow joined the Cubs org in January '19. Steele was coming off a AA season with a 5.59 ERA (3.81 xFIP) in 38.2 IP. Steele is a lefty with a 17th percentile FB, but phenomenal results. This past season he stepped up his game, it looks like by primarily cutting his bb rate in half from 3.8 to 1.9 per 9 innings. He was a starting pitcher who threw almost exclusively 2 pitches, which is kind of crazy...

62.6% 4-seem fastball
33.9% slider
1.8% sinker
1% changeup
0.7% curveball

But had good chase rates, barrel rates & groundball rates.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/justin-steele-657006?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Steele also did a good job maintaining his effectiveness through the 3rd time through the order, despite really only throwing 2 pitches:

1st time: 1.64 (2.90 xFIP)
2nd time: 3.69 (3.12 xFIP)
3rd time: 4.30 (4.21 xFIP)

He averaged 5.69 innings per start. This is a pretty, pretty excellent outcome from a guy who was just kind of kicking around the system for years & whose primary pitch is a slow fastball.
 

simplicio

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Question since you've been digging into Cubs stuff: have they been drafting pitching highly or doing something closer to Bloom's strategy?
 

JM3

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Question since you've been digging into Cubs stuff: have they been drafting pitching highly or doing something closer to Bloom's strategy?
Haven't really fully dug in, yet. Was just starting with the more successful homegrown MLB players & then going to look at the top prospects like Cade Horton. Horton was the 7th pick in the draft in '22, though, so that is definitely outside what the Red Sox did under Bloom. Their other top 100 pitching prospect, Ben Brown, was a 33rd round pick in 2017.

It's harder without a CubsProspects website to look at lol
 

JM3

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Javier Assad (26) - 2015 IFA

109.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 7.7 k/9, 3.4 bb/9, 0.9 fWAR

Assad was coming off his age 20 season in A-Ball where he had a 4.40 ERA (4.01 xFIP) in 106.1 IP. Assad is a righty who also lacks an impressive fastball - 30th percentile. The only really good things in his pitcher profile are his average exit velocity (78th percentile) & groundball rate (74th percentile). He throws lots of pitches...but the vast majority of his pitches are variants of his slow fastball.

Sinker 30.8% (92.7 mph)
Cutter 27.5% (89.1 mph)
4-seam fastball 19.2% (93.1 mph)
Slider 13.2% (80.6 mph)
Curveball 5.3% (76.6 mph)
Changeup 4% (85 mph)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/javier-assad-665871?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

So not a very compelling mix on its surface, but he was still quite effective as a Major League pitcher this year. He did a mix of starting & long relief, averaging 5.32 IP in his 10 starts.
 

JM3

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JM3

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I'm not optimistic about Zeferjahn's ability to translate his talent into success. I guess we shall see.
 

JM3

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If Breslow can turn Paez into the next Steele, it will be all worth while.
Paez is an odd one. The SP scouting report says he made a jump from 84-86 in the DSL to 89-91 in the FCL. It seems crazy to me that they would invest $450k in a guy who throws 86, but they did.

He doesn't turn 20 until January & still has room to add strength & hopefully velo, & he clearly has a good feel for pitching.

The weird thing about the 1st 2 Cubs pitchers I profiled is that they don't throw hard at all, & they mostly throw fastballs... but they're still effective.

I feel like the Red Sox were already starting to make strides in pitcher development & the primary reason there was a lack of talent knocking on the door was a conscientious choice to prioritize hitters in terms of their big ticket acquisitions & play pitching like a #s game. They've seen a # of guys tick up their velo & they seemed to be ahead of the curve with the Driveline stuff.

Will have to keep digging in more, but my guess is that Breslow’s actual strength will be more in targeted acquisition of the right pitchers & pitch mixes & movements more so than being able to add velo at a significantly faster rate than their current program.
 

JM3

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If Breslow can turn Paez into the next Steele, it will be all worth while.
I was giving this some more thought (& trying to decide which thread to post it in), but the guy who is much closer to the Steele path is Shane Drohan. He needs to make a big leap to get there, but the tools seem to be there.

If he can add a couple mph & some sink to his fastball & refine his secondaries just a bit, there is a really interesting LHP there.
 

JM3

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Their other potentially interesting LHP starters are guys like Dalton Rogers & Noah Dean who throw harder & miss more bats but are lacking sufficient control/command.

I was already pretty interested in Hayden Mullins & what he could be, too.

& there's always PENROD. Who has been pitching so well in the AFL that he may need to be added to the 40.

Personally I think Walter is a lost cause & would trade or DFA him if no one wants him, but maybe Breslow sees something there? Idk. Murphy could be an interesting project, though.

Not to say that Breslow can only fix lefties, but just wanted to put some of them in 1 post.
 

JM3

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In terms of righties, Yordanny & Perales both have great stuff & are on really good paths that hopefully they can bolster.

Wikelman is closer, but needs to take bigger jumps in control & secondaries than the previous two. Bastardo is interesting in a poor man's Wikelman type of way.

Guys like Dobbins & Gambrell are solid in sort of all aspects, but could use either a small jump in all aspects or a large jump in one aspect.

Will be interesting to see how Noah Song ramps up this off season.

Paez & Isaac Coffey both basically have everything you would look for except velo. Both will be really interesting if they can add a few mph.

ERC also has significant talent & could use leveling up in all areas, but not in an unreasonable manner.

& there are lots of interesting righties coming up from the DSL. I'm sure I'm forgetting some people. Tired & not referring to my list, but this is a really good place for a great pitching development team because there are a lot of balls of clay with potential but none of them are fully formed.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Random Affiliate History Part 3 of 3:
I'm not really going to get into the "other" affiliates the Red Sox had that much...but the year they had the most affiliates was actually 1937 when they had 11:
2) San Diego (AA) - Did I mention that their affiliate was named the Padres?
Wikipedia says the Padres were affiliated with the Red Sox in 1936, not 1937 (but '37 makes more sense). '36 was the team's first year in San Diego after 10 years in LA as the Hollywood Stars. Before that were stints in Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Sacramento and Tacoma. Always PCL. Most PCL teams were unaffiliated early on.
Weird that the Sox had that one-year affiliation with the Padres. Might have been related to Ted Williams. Williams apparently caught the eye of Sox GM Eddie Collins who was scouting his teammate Bobby Doerr in 1936 when Ted was still in high school and on the Padres as a backup outfielder behind Vince DiMaggio (oldest of the DiMaggio brothers). Would make more sense for the Sox to affiliate with the Padres for '37, after Collins had seen Ted and wanted to ensure first dibs. Collins bought Ted's contract from the Padres in December 1937. Ted spent 1938 in Minneapolis (Millers), and the rest is well-known history.
One more interesting note about the Padres. Except for the one-year affiliation with the Sox, they remained unaffiliated until '49-'51 (Cleveland). Wiki adds that in the mid-50s the PCL was an "Open Classification" league attempting to attain MLB status. I'm fascinated to learn more about that -- a rabbit hole to dive into another day.
 

JM3

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Wikipedia says the Padres were affiliated with the Red Sox in 1936, not 1937 (but '37 makes more sense). '36 was the team's first year in San Diego after 10 years in LA as the Hollywood Stars. Before that were stints in Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Sacramento and Tacoma. Always PCL. Most PCL teams were unaffiliated early on.
Weird that the Sox had that one-year affiliation with the Padres. Might have been related to Ted Williams. Williams apparently caught the eye of Sox GM Eddie Collins who was scouting his teammate Bobby Doerr in 1936 when Ted was still in high school and on the Padres as a backup outfielder behind Vince DiMaggio (oldest of the DiMaggio brothers). Would make more sense for the Sox to affiliate with the Padres for '37, after Collins had seen Ted and wanted to ensure first dibs. Collins bought Ted's contract from the Padres in December 1937. Ted spent 1938 in Minneapolis (Millers), and the rest is well-known history.
One more interesting note about the Padres. Except for the one-year affiliation with the Sox, they remained unaffiliated until '49-'51 (Cleveland). Wiki adds that in the mid-50s the PCL was an "Open Classification" league attempting to attain MLB status. I'm fascinated to learn more about that -- a rabbit hole to dive into another day.
My understanding (based on the Bref page) is that they were an affiliate in both '36 & '37.

(this was the part of my other post on that history)

They added a 2nd AA affiliate in San Diego, CA in 1936. That team included Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr & Vince Dimaggio (Joe & Dom's older brother). In '37, the Syracuse affiliate was moved to Minneapolis where they became the Millers. Of the 20 hitters to take PAs that season, 18 had MLB careers either before or after. In '38, San Diego went away & Minneapolis had the only Red Sox AA team. It featured a 19 y/o Ted Williams who had a 1.182 OPS.
There are so many fascinating deep dives that one could go on off the different affiliates. Glad you went into this one!

Here's the Padres 1937 Bref page, including 18 y/o Ted.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=cd6208af
 

JM3

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