Mock away, you can mock away

[tims4wins]

yeah, I agree I take mine. I think among other things, if you aren't getting a QB and nobody you really wants falls (like Slater or something) trading down at least once gets you a much better draft. Any of the guys I considered at 15 were there at 19, and when I got to 19 there were 4 guys I was fine with so I went down again. Part of this is probably that I'm not that enamored with Parsons or Smith.

Agree on all points. Trading down does give an overall better draft if you're not getting a top QB, and it also allows you to take a shot at a Trask/Mills/Mond in the mid-rounds.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Agree on all points. Trading down does give an overall better draft if you're not getting a top QB, and it also allows you to take a shot at a Trask/Mills/Mond in the mid-rounds.

I see we're moving onto the stage where we temper our expectations

 

[BaseballJones]

I see we're moving onto the stage where we temper our expectations

Given that it's BB drafting, isn't this the smart move?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Given that it's BB drafting, isn't this the smart move?

Yes, but usually it occurs after they've traded down

 

[Cellar-Door]

I see we're moving onto the stage where we temper our expectations

On my part I don't think it's tempering. I think outside of getting Fields, trading down is the best move. I don't think there is much difference between 15 and 25 in most cases, so I'd rather pick up more shots.

 

[JM3]

I feel the same, except I also want Lance.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I feel the same, except I also want Lance.

I can see the case for him. I just think a guy with 300 college passes and 115 in HS doesn't fit what Bill looks for in his premium picks.

 

[JM3]

I can see the case for him. I just think a guy with 300 college passes and 115 in HS doesn't fit what Bill looks for in his premium picks.

It's kind of impossible to say what BB looks for in a high end QB prospect. Maybe he'll be impressed by Lance's family & white board genius.

I'm more talking about what I hope for, though. Even if it was super unlikely, I would be excited if it happens, & I'm going to hope for it until he is off the board.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm resigned to Lance not being on their board. They didn't attend his pro days. It's trade up for Fields or trade down for me, unless Horn or Surtain or Slater are there, which seems doubtful. Even if a CB is there, I still might prefer a trade down and draft Farley or Asante Jr.

 

[JM3]

When has BB ever telegraphed what he is actually going to do?

RE: How was your Zoom with Bill Belichick, how did that one go?

TL: I actually did not say that I had a Zoom with Coach Belichick.

RE: Yes! You are a veteran, Trey! Well done, very well done. You read the blitz, you saw me coming off the edge and you looked me off.

TL: I didn’t take the bait.

RE: But it was good, right? Belichick, it was good?

TL: I definitely did not ever say that. So, I don’t know.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.patspulpit.com/platform/amp/new-england-patriots-social-media-video-podcasts/2021/4/28/22407235/trey-lance-perfect-answer-draft-interview-belichick-patriots

They sent Ziegler & Wolf to Lance's pro day.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Jim McBride Mock Draft
--Trade 15 to GB for 29 and 62

29-Davis Mills QB Stanford
46-Amari Rodgers WR Clemson
62-Ambry Thomas CB Michigan
96-Michael Carter RB UNC
120-Dillon Radunz OL NDSU
122-Jimmy Morrissey, C, Pitt
139-Dayo Odeyingbo, DE Vanderbilt
177-Simi Fehoko WR Stanford
188-Daelin Hayes EDGE ND
197-Racey McGrath WR LSU
242-Brady Breeze S Oregon

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm resigned to Lance not being on their board. They didn't attend his pro days. It's trade up for Fields or trade down for me, unless Horn or Surtain or Slater are there, which seems doubtful. Even if a CB is there, I still might prefer a trade down and draft Farley or Asante Jr.

They did go to his pro days, Groh went to the 1st, and Ziegler and Wolf at the 2nd. So while Bill and McDaniels weren't there, they had a presence.

It's kind of impossible to say what BB looks for in a high end QB prospect. Maybe he'll be impressed by Lance's family & white board genius.

I'm more talking about what I hope for, though. Even if it was super unlikely, I would be excited if it happens, & I'm going to hope for it until he is off the board.

I think we can take a number of the things he looked for in the past (as documented by Lombardi and others) as likely still true, maybe the positives of his tools outweigh them, but his inexperience and low level of competition will weigh against him.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Given that it's BB drafting, isn't this the smart move?

Actually, Nike’s in charge this year.

 

[JM3]

Jim McBride Mock Draft
--Trade 15 to GB for 29 and 62

29-Davis Mills QB Stanford
46-Amari Rodgers WR Clemson
62-Ambry Thomas CB Michigan
96-Michael Carter RB UNC
120-Dillon Radunz OL NDSU
122-Jimmy Morrissey, C, Pitt
139-Dayo Odeyingbo, DE Vanderbilt
177-Simi Fehoko WR Stanford
188-Daelin Hayes EDGE ND
197-Racey McGrath WR LSU
242-Brady Breeze S Oregon

That seems like a terrible trade value-wise.

The most similar trade I can think of off the top of my head is in 2018 the Saints moving from 27 to 14 to take Marcus Davenport & giving the Packers #147 & their 1st in 2019 to do so.

 

[JM3]

I think we can take a number of the things he looked for in the past (as documented by Lombardi and others) as likely still true, maybe the positives of his tools outweigh them, but his inexperience and low level of competition will weigh against him.

Maybe the reps will matter, but I'm pretty sure Jimmy G is the highest BB has ever drafted a QB & he went to Eastern Illinois.

& the 1st Patriots pick last year went to Lenoir-Rhyne.

BB also was there for the Phil Simms (Morehead State) Giants.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Maybe the reps will matter, but I'm pretty sure Jimmy G is the highest BB has ever drafted a QB & he went to Eastern Illinois.

& the 1st Patriots pick last year went to Lenoir-Rhyne.

BB also was there for the Phil Simms (Morehead State) Giants.

Sure, and each had reasons to offset, but Jimmy G for example took over 5 times as many passing attempts. It's the combination of low competition and low experience in college, plus essentially no HS performance, all things we know Bill looks at

 

[JM3]

Sure, and each had reasons to offset, but Jimmy G for example took over 5 times as many passing attempts. It's the combination of low competition and low experience in college, plus essentially no HS performance, all things we know Bill looks at

Matt Cassel threw 33 passes at USC? lol

I don't think I've seen these quotes indicating how important HS reps are for a QB, but yeah, who knows? I expect Lance to be good & I hope BB agrees with me, HS reps or no HS reps.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Matt Cassel threw 33 passes at USC? lol

I don't think I've seen these quotes indicating how important HS reps are for a QB, but yeah, who knows? I expect Lance to be good & I hope BB agrees with me, HS reps or no HS reps.

Matt Cassel got drafted in the 7th round not the top 10-15 picks.
The quotes are from Bill's old scouting instructions that Lombardi went through on his podcast. They looked at HS record, a bunch of stuff like that.

I think Lance might be good, but he's also a massive risk, and my general feel on Bill is he's far more likely to take guys early he knows what he's getting with. Later he'll gamble, but early he seems to like guys (at all positions) with a lot of reps and starting experience, over physical tools.

 

[JM3]

Matt Cassel got drafted in the 7th round not the top 10-15 picks.
The quotes are from Bill's old scouting instructions that Lombardi went through on his podcast. They looked at HS record, a bunch of stuff like that.

I think Lance might be good, but he's also a massive risk, and my general feel on Bill is he's far more likely to take guys early he knows what he's getting with. Later he'll gamble, but early he seems to like guys (at all positions) with a lot of reps and starting experience, over physical tools.

Yeah, the Cassel thing was 99% a joke.

Lance went 11-1 in his season as a high school starter. Obvious winner. Check the box.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think outside of getting Fields, trading down is the best move.

We are in 100% agreement

 

[JM3]

Matt Cassel got drafted in the 7th round not the top 10-15 picks.
The quotes are from Bill's old scouting instructions that Lombardi went through on his podcast. They looked at HS record, a bunch of stuff like that.

I think Lance might be good, but he's also a massive risk, and my general feel on Bill is he's far more likely to take guys early he knows what he's getting with. Later he'll gamble, but early he seems to like guys (at all positions) with a lot of reps and starting experience, over physical tools.

Lombardi also thinks the Patriots won't trade up for Fields... you know...because he has a different throwing motion than Tom Brady...

https://nesn.com/2021/04/why-ex-nfl-exec-doesnt-believe-patriots-will-trade-up-for-justin-fields/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I don’t think New England’s trading up to get Justin Fields,” Lombardi said on VSiN. “I don’t see that. If you watch his throwing motion and you watch Tom Brady throw, they’re two different throwing motions. I don’t think they’re ever merging together.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Lombardi also thinks the Patriots won't trade up for Fields... you know...because he has a different throwing motion than Tom Brady...

https://nesn.com/2021/04/why-ex-nfl-exec-doesnt-believe-patriots-will-trade-up-for-justin-fields/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Apparently, Lombardi didn't watch that Clemson game where Fields was throwing bombs all over the field.

 

[JM3]

Apparently, Lombardi didn't watch that Clemson game where Fields was throwing bombs all over the field.

Eh, Fields went with his own throwing motion & not Brady's in that game as well.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

If the Patriots trade down to #29 and draft Davis Mills I will be shocked and disappointed. I’m not sure I even want Mills in round two. That’s ridiculous.

 

[RedOctober3829]

My Final Mock Draft
1. Jags-Trevor Lawrence
2. Jets-Zach Wilson
3. 49ers-Trey Lance
4. Falcons-Kyle Pitts
5. Bengals-Penei Sewell
6. Dolphins-Ja'Marr Chase
7. Chargers(from Lions)-Rashawn Slater
8. Patriots(from Panthers)-Justin Fields
9. Broncos-Micah Parsons
10. Giants-Jaylen Waddle
11. Cowboys-Patrick Surtain
12. Bears(from Eagles)-Mac Jones
13. Lions(from Chargers)-Devonta Smith
14. Vikings-Christian Darrisaw
15. Panthers(from Patriots)-Jaycee Horn
16. Cardinals-Rashod Bateman
17. Raiders-Jaelen Phillips
18. Dolphins-Jeremiah Owusu-Koramusa
19. WFT-Zaven Collins
20. Eagles(from Bears)-Kwity Paye
21. Colts-Liam Eichenberg
22. Titans-Alijah Vera-Tucker
23. Jets-Travis Etienne
24. Steelers-Najee Harris
25. Jaguars-Trevon Moehrig
26. Browns-Azeez Ojulari
27. Ravens-Elijah Moore
28. Saints-Christian Barmore
29. Packers-Kadarius Toney
30. Bills-Pat Friermuth
31. Ravens-Greg Rousseau
32. Bucs-Jayson Oweh

 

[Carbo Loading]

One last Pats draft from PFN

Trade 15/96 and 2022 1st to Carolina for 8
8 - Justin Fields - QB OSU
46 - Landon Dickerson - C/OG Alabama
Trade 120/2022 6th to Jacksonville for 130/145
122 - Trey Sermon - RB OSU
130 - Dayo Odeyingbo - Edge Vandy
139 - Josh Palmer - WR Tennessee
145 - Divine Deablo - S Virginia Tech
Trade 177/2022 7th to San Francisco for 180/230
180 - Cornell Powell - WR Clemson
188 - Patrick Johnson - Edge Tulane
197 - Tre Brown - CB Oklahoma
230 - Evan McPherson - K Florida
242 - Avery Williams - CB Boise State

 

[Scoops Bolling]

The PFT mock simulator is kind of absurd. I ended up with:

#7 (acquired for #15 and 2022 R2 pick, which is laughable): QB Justin Fields
#21 (acquired for 2022 R1 and R4 picks): CB Jaycee Horn
#72 (acquired with Detroit 2022 R1 pick for #46 and #96 picks): WR Dyami Brown
#120: LB Jamin David
#122: S Jamar Johnson
#139: G Kendrick Green
#177: TE Tommy Tremble
#242: ED Shaka Toney

Pick #188 was traded to Seattle for their 2022 R3 pick. That 2022 R3 pick was then bundled with pick #197 for the Vikings' 2022 R2 pick. I feel like every one of those trades would never happen, and that at least a couple of the latter round picks would not be available at that juncture in the draft.