Putting aside the question of whether it makes sense to invest $400 million in any one player, this thread is dedicated to reading the tea leaves on where Mookie will sign as a free agent towards the end of this year.
In analyzing the Sox' ~$300 million offer to Mookie Betts, I see three possible scenarios:
1) CYA (this is probably the most likely and most cynical): The Red Sox made Mookie an offer that is both incredibly large (any way you slice it, $300 million is a lot of money) and had 0% chance of being accepted. As it would look bad to ship Mookie out of town without ever making him an offer, they made an offer that they knew he would never accept. This would be consistent with a narrative that they have no intention of pursuing him next offseason.
2) Tank for Betts (Prioritize Mookie): The Red Sox made Mookie an offer that they felt would represent such a good value for the club, that they'd be willing to tear down other parts of the team to get under the LT threshold. In other words, assuming that they still want to be under the LT, they'd be willing to make even tougher choices to get under the salary cap after signing Mookie to such an extension.
3) LT be damned: The offer that the Red Sox made Mookie represents their total willingness to pay (salary + tax). This is probably the least likely scenario, but the most interesting (I think). If Mookie would have accepted that $30 million/year offer, it would have cost the team an additional 45?% on top of that. That would mean they were willing to invest almost $44 million a year in Mookie (sort of assumes they'd be over the LT for the entirety of the deal, which maybe isn't fair). If that's the case, the Sox could be serious contenders for Mookie next winter. Wouldn't that be interesting?
In analyzing the Sox' ~$300 million offer to Mookie Betts, I see three possible scenarios:
1) CYA (this is probably the most likely and most cynical): The Red Sox made Mookie an offer that is both incredibly large (any way you slice it, $300 million is a lot of money) and had 0% chance of being accepted. As it would look bad to ship Mookie out of town without ever making him an offer, they made an offer that they knew he would never accept. This would be consistent with a narrative that they have no intention of pursuing him next offseason.
2) Tank for Betts (Prioritize Mookie): The Red Sox made Mookie an offer that they felt would represent such a good value for the club, that they'd be willing to tear down other parts of the team to get under the LT threshold. In other words, assuming that they still want to be under the LT, they'd be willing to make even tougher choices to get under the salary cap after signing Mookie to such an extension.
3) LT be damned: The offer that the Red Sox made Mookie represents their total willingness to pay (salary + tax). This is probably the least likely scenario, but the most interesting (I think). If Mookie would have accepted that $30 million/year offer, it would have cost the team an additional 45?% on top of that. That would mean they were willing to invest almost $44 million a year in Mookie (sort of assumes they'd be over the LT for the entirety of the deal, which maybe isn't fair). If that's the case, the Sox could be serious contenders for Mookie next winter. Wouldn't that be interesting?