Moves I'd Make

mikcou · Dec 18, 2023

Kim is coming off back to back 3.7 and 4.4 fWAR seasons. The Padres arent trading him for two marginal value players, even if they have a significant number of years of control remaining.

The discussions there start with Mayer/Teel/Anthony tier of player.

Red(s)HawksFan · Dec 18, 2023

mikcou said:
Kim is coming off back to back 3.7 and 4.4 fWAR seasons. The Padres arent trading him for two marginal value players, even if they have a significant number of years of control remaining.

The discussions there start with Mayer/Teel/Anthony tier of player.

It's certainly debatable whether Winckowski/Valdez gets you Kim, but there's not a chance in hell that acquiring Kim would require one of Mayer, Teel, or Anthony (or anyone of that tier). I'm not sure it would require any of those guys to get a front of the rotation starter with one year of control left (such as Burnes), let alone a middle infielder with one year of control remaining.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 18, 2023

Absolutely love this idea for a thread.

For starters. I obviously want them to sign Yamamoto. I don't think this will happen short of the Red Sox making just a "blow everyone out of the water" kind of offer in a blind bid setting. Ie, offering him 12 yrs / $450m / player opt out after 5. I think it would take something like this for him to choose Boston.

SIGN - Jordan Montgomery. 7yrs / $175m / /$25m AAV. Based on Heyman (a Boras mouthpiece) saying that Montgomery is using the Carlos Rodon offer as a comp, it makes me think he doesn't really have that offer or anything terrible close to it in hand. Tell Boras that you want to be "involved" in Montgomery with an "initial" offer of something like 6/$120m. To which I'm sure he's said the player is waiting to see what the market looks like after Yamamoto signs. Tell him that offer is (and will remain) on the table to negotiate, but that he has 24 hours to take the 7/$175m / $25m deal, eclipsing what he's apparently "looking for" and what Nola signed for. I think he takes it.

SIGN - Lucas Giolito. 4yrs / $60m / $15m AAV. I'm just using Ben Clemen's numbers from FanGraphs, which is considerably higher than the crowdsource on Giolito (2/$30m/$15m). I think the objective "talent" is there (ie his 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons). He has a good pitch mix and good extension. I think Bailey and Breslow can "get him back" to the guy he was (on average) between those three seasons, possibly a bit worse (call it a 3 bWAR pitcher).

TRADE - Nick Yorke to the SF Giants for Carson Whisenhunt or Mason Black. I know prospect for prospect trades are rare, but SF has said they'd move some pitchers to improve their offense. I'm sure they want to try for "MLB" hitters first, but while Whisenhunt is a good prospect, he's certainly not at the level of someone like Harrison from whom they could get a really good bat. They might be more apt to make Mason Black available in this kind of deal. Black would probably slot in as SP1 in Worcester with Fitts as SP2, if Wisenhunt, he'd likely be SP1 in Portland with Gonzalez SP2. Either way, this helps to address the lack of high end SP prospects in the upper levels of the minors.

Rotation - Montgomery, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Sale/Houck piggy back day. I wanted to sign 3 SPs and tell Sale you'll trade him if he'd waive his NTC and go 6 man if he doesn't, but too many of those names are off the board now, so I think you're forced to call him SP5. I wouldn't "count" on getting any more than 15 starts from him, and I'd strongly consider that "5th day" to be Sale for 5ip and Houck for 4ip to keep him stretched out for the inevitable Sale injury.

SIGN - Amed Rosario. 2yrs / $22m / $11m. This is a little bit more than both Clemens and the crowdsourcing project. He was pretty good playing 2b for LAD last year, and that is where he fits in on this team, in my opinion. If Valdez can improve defensively, this is a platoon situation, but it looked REALLY bad there last year, and they (mind bogglingly) didn't give him nearly the full season in the majors to try and improve, a la Casas. But that is another discussion for another day.

Line up -

Against RHPs: DH - Yoshida (L); 3b - Devers (L); SS - Story (R); 1b - Casas (L); RF - Abreu (L); LF - Duran (L); 2b - Rosario (R); C - Wong (R); CF - Rafaela (R). (Possibly Valdez in for Rosario, but who knows on the defense).

Against LHPs: CF - Rafaela (R); 2b - Rosario (R - .806 career OPS against LHPs); 3b - Devers (L); SS - Story (R); 1b - Casas (L); RF - O"Neill (R); DH - Yoshida (L); LF - Duran (L); C - Wong (R).

PrometheusWakefield · Dec 18, 2023

Red(s)HawksFan said:
It's certainly debatable whether Winckowski/Valdez gets you Kim, but there's not a chance in hell that acquiring Kim would require one of Mayer, Teel, or Anthony (or anyone of that tier). I'm not sure it would require any of those guys to get a front of the rotation starter with one year of control left (such as Burnes), let alone a middle infielder with one year of control remaining.

I think it's more like a Houck level guy as the principal for Kim and it's probably worth it to make that move.

Mantush · Dec 18, 2023

I don't see a world where the Marlins accept a trade for Luzardo that doesn't include more of the positional player prospect core. BTV has your proposed trade massively in favor of the Sox. There's significant questions about Ceddanne's bat that hamper his value in any possible trade. Dalbec has no trade value. This means the only meaningful piece going to the Marlins is Duran, and Duran had a very high BABIP last year so I'd imagine teams, including the Sox, are skeptical about him being able to reproduce his 2023 season. Steamer isn't too kind to him next year. I think a more realistic package would necessitate the inclusion of either one of Yorke or Bleis or a pairing of a lottery tickets. Personally, the inclusion of either Bleis or Yorke wouldn't dissuade me from acquiring Luzardo. I also think Stroman signs for more than an AAV of 16.67M. Fangraphs is projecting him in at an AAV of 22M.

I like the rest of your suggestions, especially Taylor. I wanted the Red Sox to acquire both Taylor and Mondesi from the Royals last year before Taylor was traded to the Twins. The Sox did eventually trade for Mondesi but we all know how well that turned out...

simplicio · Dec 18, 2023

The claim that any of Duran, Rafaela and Dalbec are major league hitters is dubious.

MLBTR projected Stroman for 2/44, I don't see him getting less than about $19m AAV.

mikcou · Dec 18, 2023

Red(s)HawksFan said:
It's certainly debatable whether Winckowski/Valdez gets you Kim, but there's not a chance in hell that acquiring Kim would require one of Mayer, Teel, or Anthony (or anyone of that tier). I'm not sure it would require any of those guys to get a front of the rotation starter with one year of control left (such as Burnes), let alone a middle infielder with one year of control remaining.

I could see no one being willing to trade that, but I dont buy that the Padres are overly motivated to move Kim. He's cheap and really good.

If he does become available, I will be shocked if what is going to the Padres doesnt include either a top 50ish prospect or an established MLB guy who can start. I could see that being Houck. I dont see them trading him for a reliever and a guy who has no position and whose bat isnt that good.

DeadlySplitter · Dec 18, 2023

The Marlins & Royals couldn't agree on Luzardo for Pasquantino, per Rosenthal.

Don't think Luzardo is acquirable without putting in a Casas or Mayer/Teel/Anthony, which I certainly feel is too high.

JBJ_HOF · Dec 18, 2023

DeadlySplitter said:
Don't think Luzardo is acquirable without putting in a Casas or Mayer/Teel/Anthony, which I certainly feel is too high.

3 years of control for a lefty that has a huge prospect pedigree and is basically a lock to be a #2 starter. I think they should trade any of those three prospects for him, plus more second level players.

ElcaballitoMVP · Dec 18, 2023

SouthernBoSox said:
While MLB trade simulator isn't perfect, without having the actual conversations it's as much as we can really go on.
View attachment 75268

I like where you're going here, but I don't think this gets it done despite being close on BTV. I've talked a few times recently about Kim, but the Padres need cheap starters, possibly a setup guy (so Wink works) and OF help. They don't need 2B. They will move Cronenworth back to 2B if they trade Kim and they have Jackson Merrill close to MLB ready. Valdez likely isn't of any interest to them.

I think something like Rafaela and Winkowski is more along the lines of what they'd be looking for and they'd probably ask for another piece that's close to big league ready. Houck for Kim makes sense too, in that they'd get a cheap SP, but that all depends on if they think he's a starter. But even if they do think he's a starter, who knows if the Sox want to create another opening in the rotation.

In any deal you're probably going to have to overpay a little bit for Kim. He's a fan favorite, they just traded Soto and he's making a very reasonable $8M next year. Wink and Valdez would not go over well here in SD.

nvalvo · Dec 18, 2023

DeadlySplitter said:
The Marlins & Royals couldn't agree on Luzardo for Pasquantino, per Rosenthal.

Don't think Luzardo is acquirable without putting in a Casas or Mayer/Teel/Anthony, which I certainly feel is too high.

The rumor was that it was the Royals that passed, although who knows.

I think that's what has people speculating about pursuing him. Casas is about two years younger than Pasquantino and has been a tic better in a very similar amount of service time and PAs.

Pasquantino's prime starts now, and he's likely to continue to be the .270/.350/.450 guy his career line suggests, maybe with a tic more SLG as he ages. That's a nice player, especially in a home park that makes it quite hard to hit a ball out!

That's also close to Casas' career line of .254/.356/.477 (in a friendlier home ballpark for hitters, but also in a division where all of the teams are quite competitive), but next year is Casas' age-24 season. So Casas is a considerably more valuable asset IMO, because the ceiling is still undiscovered, and the second half of 2023 suggests it could be insanely high.

So if Luzardo's market value doesn't return Pasquantino, I think Casas/Mayer/Anthony/Teel would certainly be an overpay. I'm not sure Duran and Rafaela get it done as co-centerpieces — both of those guys have huge error bars on their valuations — but I think that's closer to Luzardo's value (as an arb1 SP who is likely about to get fairly expensive) in the abstract than Casas. I like Luzardo a lot, but this isn't three years of Chris Sale we'd be acquiring here, and the Royals turning down Luzardo (~60 on BTV) for Pasquantino (~40 on BTV) — if that indeed happened — gives us at least some sort of signpost for his value.

pjheff · Dec 18, 2023

Dewey'sCannon · Dec 18, 2023

I could see Houck for Kim, and I'd probably do that deal.

Not a fan of Stroman. Too much risk, appears to be a bit of a headcase, not worth the price.

I'd certainly explore a deal for Lazardo if he's available. Hard to know what the Marlins would be looking for .

Michael A. Taylor is nothing more than a 4th outfielder. Solid D in CF, but even with some occasional pop can't be counted on with the bat. Might make sense to platoon with Duran, but I don't want him as my starting CF.

PedroisGod · Dec 18, 2023

If we fall short on Yamamoto, I'd rather sign Snell than Montgomery. It seems the Dodgers aren't interested in Snell, it seems the Yankees would rather bring back Montgomery, and it's been reported it's Yamamoto or bust for the Mets. What would the competition be for Snell? The Giants? The walks are scary, but the stuff is undeniable and Snell represents the pitcher most likely to be an ace. At an astronomical price, I was iffy, but if he could be had at a relative bargain, I'd take him over Montgomery.

I'd look to sign Giolito to a 2 year deal. He strikes guys out, has pretty good control, and has typically limited hits. He's not too far removed from being a very good pitcher. The home runs have typically been a bit high, but they've never been as bad as they were after the trade to the Angels and the waiver claim by the Guardians. He's 29, so he's not too old, and I think he'd be looking to rebuild his value and hit FA again if he can regain his form. Something in the 2 year, 35-40 million range might work for both parties.

I'd try to sign Mitch Garver to DH and fill in at C and 1B. We need right handed power and he's one of the best ones on the market.

Lastly, we need an upgrade at 2B. As much as I'd love H.S. Kim, I think the asking price will be far too high. I like Drury, but his lack of plate discipline is a bit worrisome. I like that Polanco's a switch hitter, and I like skillset (he ran a double digit walk rate last year, and while the strikeouts were high, he's usually kept them under control in his career) and his defensive versatility.

With this plan, we keep Anthony, Teel, and Mayer and we haven't committed real long term money to anybody but Snell.

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud · Dec 19, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Absolutely love this idea for a thread.

For starters. I obviously want them to sign Yamamoto. I don't think this will happen short of the Red Sox making just a "blow everyone out of the water" kind of offer in a blind bid setting. Ie, offering him 12 yrs / $450m / player opt out after 5. I think it would take something like this for him to choose Boston.

SIGN - Jordan Montgomery. 7yrs / $175m / /$25m AAV. Based on Heyman (a Boras mouthpiece) saying that Montgomery is using the Carlos Rodon offer as a comp, it makes me think he doesn't really have that offer or anything terrible close to it in hand. Tell Boras that you want to be "involved" in Montgomery with an "initial" offer of something like 6/$120m. To which I'm sure he's said the player is waiting to see what the market looks like after Yamamoto signs. Tell him that offer is (and will remain) on the table to negotiate, but that he has 24 hours to take the 7/$175m / $25m deal, eclipsing what he's apparently "looking for" and what Nola signed for. I think he takes it.

SIGN - Lucas Giolito. 4yrs / $60m / $15m AAV. I'm just using Ben Clemen's numbers from FanGraphs, which is considerably higher than the crowdsource on Giolito (2/$30m/$15m). I think the objective "talent" is there (ie his 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons). He has a good pitch mix and good extension. I think Bailey and Breslow can "get him back" to the guy he was (on average) between those three seasons, possibly a bit worse (call it a 3 bWAR pitcher).

TRADE - Nick Yorke to the SF Giants for Carson Whisenhunt or Mason Black. I know prospect for prospect trades are rare, but SF has said they'd move some pitchers to improve their offense. I'm sure they want to try for "MLB" hitters first, but while Whisenhunt is a good prospect, he's certainly not at the level of someone like Harrison from whom they could get a really good bat. They might be more apt to make Mason Black available in this kind of deal. Black would probably slot in as SP1 in Worcester with Fitts as SP2, if Wisenhunt, he'd likely be SP1 in Portland with Gonzalez SP2. Either way, this helps to address the lack of high end SP prospects in the upper levels of the minors.

Rotation - Montgomery, Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Sale/Houck piggy back day. I wanted to sign 3 SPs and tell Sale you'll trade him if he'd waive his NTC and go 6 man if he doesn't, but too many of those names are off the board now, so I think you're forced to call him SP5. I wouldn't "count" on getting any more than 15 starts from him, and I'd strongly consider that "5th day" to be Sale for 5ip and Houck for 4ip to keep him stretched out for the inevitable Sale injury.

SIGN - Amed Rosario. 2yrs / $22m / $11m. This is a little bit more than both Clemens and the crowdsourcing project. He was pretty good playing 2b for LAD last year, and that is where he fits in on this team, in my opinion. If Valdez can improve defensively, this is a platoon situation, but it looked REALLY bad there last year, and they (mind bogglingly) didn't give him nearly the full season in the majors to try and improve, a la Casas. But that is another discussion for another day.

Line up -

Against RHPs: DH - Yoshida (L); 3b - Devers (L); SS - Story (R); 1b - Casas (L); RF - Abreu (L); LF - Duran (L); 2b - Rosario (R); C - Wong (R); CF - Rafaela (R). (Possibly Valdez in for Rosario, but who knows on the defense).

Against LHPs: CF - Rafaela (R); 2b - Rosario (R - .806 career OPS against LHPs); 3b - Devers (L); SS - Story (R); 1b - Casas (L); RF - O"Neill (R); DH - Yoshida (L); LF - Duran (L); C - Wong (R).

There's no chance Refsnyder sits against lefties as long as he's on the roster.

loneredseat · Dec 19, 2023

I'd go sniffing around Brandon Woodruff. Word is that he's a really good dude.

simplicio · Dec 19, 2023

He may be a good dude, but he's not pitching next year. Also, anterior capsule repairs don't have a routine recovery like elbow problems. There's a significant chance he'll never be the same guy again.

chawson · Dec 19, 2023

simplicio said:
He may be a good dude, but he's not pitching next year. Also, anterior capsule repairs don't have a routine recovery like elbow problems. There's a significant chance he'll never be the same guy again.

Good point here. Doesn't seem like a ton of evidence for MLB pitchers who've had anterior capsule repairs, but the success rate is not really high.

From what I can tell, Julio Urias had it at age 20 and obviously came back strong. Orel Hershiser had it at 31 and came back — though obviously in a much different era and pitching environment. Others include John Danks (essentially a career-ender at 27), Johan Santana (at 31, basically ending his), Orel Hershiser (at 31), and back-end rotation guy Tom Koehler (done at 30). Guardians' prospect Daniel Espino and former prospect Justin Dunn had anterior capsule surgeries in the past year.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 19, 2023

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud said:
There's no chance Refsnyder sits against lefties as long as he's on the roster.

Sure. I'd forgotten he was on the roster. But yeah. Plus, O'Neill will be on the IL by June, so feel free to throw RR in there instead. Similar fits on the roster.

PedroisGod said:
If we fall short on Yamamoto, I'd rather sign Snell than Montgomery ... What would the competition be for Snell? The Giants?

I'd look to sign Giolito to a 2 year deal. He strikes guys out, has pretty good control, and has typically limited hits. He's not too far removed from being a very good pitcher. The home runs have typically been a bit high, but they've never been as bad as they were after the trade to the Angels and the waiver claim by the Guardians. He's 29, so he's not too old, and I think he'd be looking to rebuild his value and hit FA again if he can regain his form. Something in the 2 year, 35-40 million range might work for both parties.

I'd try to sign Mitch Garver to DH and fill in at C and 1B. We need right handed power and he's one of the best ones on the market.

Lastly, we need an upgrade at 2B. As much as I'd love H.S. Kim, I think the asking price will be far too high. I like Drury, but his lack of plate discipline is a bit worrisome. I like that Polanco's a switch hitter, and I like skillset (he ran a double digit walk rate last year, and while the strikeouts were high, he's usually kept them under control in his career) and his defensive versatility.

With this plan, we keep Anthony, Teel, and Mayer and we haven't committed real long term money to anybody but Snell.

I'm admittedly a Montgomery guy (the number of starts per year) vs Snell (much more talented, far more consistently missing about a month and a half of the season) but if they commit to Snell I'm not going to be upset so to speak. Or at least not nearly as upset as I'd be with another off-season of retreads and one year deals. The injuries scare me more than the walks with him, though.

However, Seattle seems to be interested in Snell and vice versa as far as competition goes. Also, Snell (like Montgomery) is a Boras client. No way he's going to be a "bargain." If someone wants to commit 8/$200m to him instead of whatever it costs for Montgomery, I get it though. But it'll probably cost around that.

Garver is a good call. Another of those guys that always gets hurt, but putting him in C/DH role for a year while Teel is in AA and (hopefully) AAA makes a lot of sense.

simplicio · Dec 19, 2023

chawson said:
Good point here. Doesn't seem like a ton of evidence for MLB pitchers who've had anterior capsule repairs, but the success rate is not really high.

From what I can tell, Julio Urias had it at age 20 and obviously came back strong. Orel Hershiser had it at 31 and came back — though obviously in a much different era and pitching environment. Others include John Danks (essentially a career-ender at 27), Johan Santana (at 31, basically ending his), Orel Hershiser (at 31), and back-end rotation guy Tom Koehler (done at 30). Guardians' prospect Daniel Espino and former prospect Justin Dunn had anterior capsule surgeries in the past year.

From the bit I read about it, it seems like it's a lot harder to come back from when you're in your 30s.

PedroisGod · Dec 19, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
I'm admittedly a Montgomery guy (the number of starts per year) vs Snell (much more talented, far more consistently missing about a month and a half of the season) but if they commit to Snell I'm not going to be upset so to speak. Or at least not nearly as upset as I'd be with another off-season of retreads and one year deals. The injuries scare me more than the walks with him, though.

However, Seattle seems to be interested in Snell and vice versa as far as competition goes. Also, Snell (like Montgomery) is a Boras client. No way he's going to be a "bargain." If someone wants to commit 8/$200m to him instead of whatever it costs for Montgomery, I get it though. But it'll probably cost around that.

I think Snell's injury concerns are a bit overstated. The lack of innings is mostly because of his pitch counts which typically force him out of starts after 5 or 6 innings. He hasn't been on the IL for anything arm related since 2019. He's been on the IL with a GI issue, a groin strain, and an adductor strain, and hasn't really missed a turn since he went on the IL in April 2022. I just worry about committing that kind of money to somebody like Montgomery, who is a good pitcher, but is somebody you're paying more for dependability, which won't be as sure of a thing as he ages.

He does have interest in Seattle, but do they really need to commit that kind of money to an arm when they already have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, and Miller? Unless they trade one of them after the Yamamoto dust settles, I don't really see a need for them with Snell.

I agree, there may not be a discount with Snell being a Boras guy, but what I meant was that it doesn't seem like we'd be in a bidding war with some of the league's biggest spenders like we are with Yamamoto. That makes me feel a bit better about the potential financial terms. Could Snell be had for what Nola got?

loneredseat · Dec 19, 2023

simplicio said:
He may be a good dude, but he's not pitching next year. Also, anterior capsule repairs don't have a routine recovery like elbow problems. There's a significant chance he'll never be the same guy again.

I knew he was down for the year but I did not know he was likely out for good. I did a quick check on this and you're right. Thanks-

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 19, 2023

PedroisGod said:
I think Snell's injury concerns are a bit overstated. The lack of innings is mostly because of his pitch counts which typically force him out of starts after 5 or 6 innings. He hasn't been on the IL for anything arm related since 2019. He's been on the IL with a GI issue, a groin strain, and an adductor strain, and hasn't really missed a turn since he went on the IL in April 2022. I just worry about committing that kind of money to somebody like Montgomery, who is a good pitcher, but is somebody you're paying more for dependability, which won't be as sure of a thing as he ages.

He does have interest in Seattle, but do they really need to commit that kind of money to an arm when they already have Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, and Miller? Unless they trade one of them after the Yamamoto dust settles, I don't really see a need for them with Snell.

I agree, there may not be a discount with Snell being a Boras guy, but what I meant was that it doesn't seem like we'd be in a bidding war with some of the league's biggest spenders like we are with Yamamoto. That makes me feel a bit better about the potential financial terms. Could Snell be had for what Nola got?

Yeah, I meant the starts and not the innings pitched, FWIW. I know you listed out the unrelated (to pitching) injuries, but guys that seemingly always find their way on to the IL (ie Chris Sale, James Paxton; Jacoby Ellsbury, Giancarlo Stanton on the positional side) always worry me.

Though, to be clear, I'm not going to be all that upset if they commit to Snell. I'm just sick and tired of the "setting up a season to fail and then being surprised when it fails" approach of one year deals and injury prone guys. I want them to actually identify some pitching that they like and lock it up for a number of years to stop with the incessant cobbling together of a rotation year in and year out. The way starting pitching has been addressed for basically the past half decade has led to some predictably terrible seasons and a rotation that is somewhere between "horrendous" and "filled with Bryan Bello and all error bars" at the MLB, AAA and AA levels, and in no way am I surprised that it has failed miserably in terms of building any type of sustained success.

Possibly - re the Nola deal - but I think it'd have to be more. Nola ostensibly at least turned down higher offers to stay in Philly, so he seemed to be just using free agency to get the highest offer possible from Philly and take that, similar (but on a smaller scale) to Varitek back when he was given the C on the jersey. Maybe it would be more like 7/$185m vs 8/$200m, but I think he's going to get more than Nola.

chawson · Dec 19, 2023

PedroisGod said:
If we fall short on Yamamoto, I'd rather sign Snell than Montgomery. It seems the Dodgers aren't interested in Snell, it seems the Yankees would rather bring back Montgomery, and it's been reported it's Yamamoto or bust for the Mets. What would the competition be for Snell? The Giants? The walks are scary, but the stuff is undeniable and Snell represents the pitcher most likely to be an ace. At an astronomical price, I was iffy, but if he could be had at a relative bargain, I'd take him over Montgomery.

I'd look to sign Giolito to a 2 year deal. He strikes guys out, has pretty good control, and has typically limited hits. He's not too far removed from being a very good pitcher. The home runs have typically been a bit high, but they've never been as bad as they were after the trade to the Angels and the waiver claim by the Guardians. He's 29, so he's not too old, and I think he'd be looking to rebuild his value and hit FA again if he can regain his form. Something in the 2 year, 35-40 million range might work for both parties.

I'd try to sign Mitch Garver to DH and fill in at C and 1B. We need right handed power and he's one of the best ones on the market.

Lastly, we need an upgrade at 2B. As much as I'd love H.S. Kim, I think the asking price will be far too high. I like Drury, but his lack of plate discipline is a bit worrisome. I like that Polanco's a switch hitter, and I like skillset (he ran a double digit walk rate last year, and while the strikeouts were high, he's usually kept them under control in his career) and his defensive versatility.

With this plan, we keep Anthony, Teel, and Mayer and we haven't committed real long term money to anybody but Snell.

This is pretty much exactly what I'm hoping to happen. YY first — if not, then Snell or Montgomery — plus Giolito and Garver, and a trade for Polanco. I'd see if we can get Griffin Canning from the Angels too.

RS2004foreever · Dec 19, 2023

FWIW Snell's FIP is much more stable than his ERA. I am not smart enough to know if ERA+ > FIP.
2018 2.94
2019 3.32
2021 3.82
2022 2.8
2023 3.44

bosox1534 · Dec 19, 2023

Trade for Corbin Burnes, contingent upon an extension. 7/$210M? If the Mariners are truly making Kirby and Gilbert untouchable, then this is my second favorite starting pitcher that’s realistically available behind YY. Include any combo of prospects with Houck outside of the big three. I find to hard to believe it would take one of Mayer, Anthony or Teel for the Brewers part with him.

Trade for Brandon Drury. Can play multiple positions, consistent hitter with decent defense and wouldn’t cost a lot, perhaps Yorke and a pitcher? Solid middle infield for next couple years that wouldn’t block Mayer long term.

Sign Lucas Giolito. Coming off a rough season, could get for cheap with high potential and still pretty young.

Resign JT or JD Martinez. Should be pretty cheap due to fielding limitations but would be amazing middle of the order bats that are both familiar playing in Boston. Might be a bit right hand heavy lineup, but I don’t think it should matter since these guys hit both sides so well.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 19, 2023

bosox1534 said:
Trade for Corbin Burnes, contingent upon an extension. 7/$210M? If the Mariners are truly making Kirby and Gilbert untouchable, then this is my second favorite starting pitcher that’s realistically available behind YY. Include any combo of prospects with Houck outside of the big three. I find to hard to believe it would take one of Mayer, Anthony or Teel for the Brewers part with him.

Trade for Brandon Drury. Can play multiple positions, consistent hitter with decent defense and wouldn’t cost a lot, perhaps Yorke and a pitcher? Solid middle infield for next couple years that wouldn’t block Mayer long term.

Sign Lucas Giolito. Coming off a rough season, could get for cheap with high potential and still pretty young.

Resign JT or JD Martinez. Should be pretty cheap due to fielding limitations but would be amazing middle of the order bats that are both familiar playing in Boston. Might be a bit right hand heavy lineup, but I don’t think it should matter since these guys hit both sides so well.

If you can get the extension agreed upon (always tough because Boras, but I agree this should make the return totally contingent) there is no prospect I wouldn't give up. Literally, none. I'd rather have Burnes at 7/$210m than Mayer and our current rotation and it's not really all that close.

bosox1534 · Dec 19, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
If you can get the extension agreed upon (always tough because Boras, but I agree this should make the return totally contingent) there is no prospect I wouldn't give up. Literally, none. I'd rather have Burnes at 7/$210m than Mayer and our current rotation and it's not really all that close.

I agree on that if the deal breaker was including Mayer, then I would probably make that deal. I would be more hesitant to include Anthony and Teel however.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 19, 2023

bosox1534 said:
I agree on that if the deal breaker was including Mayer, then I would probably make that deal. I would be more hesitant to include Anthony and Teel however.

Same.

That said, I know Breslow has mentioned a couple times (or at least had it attributed to him) that he's not interested in rentals. I get that an extended Burnes means he's not a rental (and I also get that you can't take anything anyone says in the public at face value "FULL THROTTLE!!!"), but it seems like this isn't a match for the Sox. Absolutely would want the pitcher and would absolutely "extend" him at something a good bit higher than whatever the highest offer to another SP is this year (ie, non Yamamoto). 7/$210m seems about right, in my opinion.

FWIW, I'm also a big fan of the idea of signing Giolito. But, like pretty much everyone else, I only want him on a 3/4 year deal. I'm sick of the one year stop gap measures as I think that building a new rotation year in and year out is way too difficult a task.

RS2004foreever said:
FWIW Snell's FIP is much more stable than his ERA. I am not smart enough to know if ERA+ > FIP.
2018 2.94
2019 3.32
2021 3.82
2022 2.8
2023 3.44

Not for nothing, but I really like ERA+ as a stat, without trying to say which is "better." How good was someone relative to their league. If you consistently see someone that is better than their league, even if the "underlying data" don't back it up, there is probably something that is in fact causing someone to consistently be better than the other pitchers, even if we aren't able to isolate exactly what that is. Though I don't think anyone is trying to say Snell isn't a good pitcher (and in some seasons an excellent pitcher). The concerns about him (or at least my concern) has a lot more to do with how often he pitches, not what he does when he's pitching, so to speak.

It's like Stanton. He is an absolute monster when he's in the line up, but he's not in the line up enough.

simplicio · Dec 19, 2023

I don't get wanting to sign Giolito. He walked 3.5/9 and gave up 2 HR/9 this year. People would be calling for Craig's head by the end of April. He hasn't looked like a good pitcher since 2021.

Yo La Tengo · Dec 19, 2023

bosox1534 said:
Trade for Corbin Burnes, contingent upon an extension. 7/$210M? If the Mariners are truly making Kirby and Gilbert untouchable, then this is my second favorite starting pitcher that’s realistically available behind YY. Include any combo of prospects with Houck outside of the big three. I find to hard to believe it would take one of Mayer, Anthony or Teel for the Brewers part with him.

Trade for Brandon Drury. Can play multiple positions, consistent hitter with decent defense and wouldn’t cost a lot, perhaps Yorke and a pitcher? Solid middle infield for next couple years that wouldn’t block Mayer long term.

Sign Lucas Giolito. Coming off a rough season, could get for cheap with high potential and still pretty young.

Resign JT or JD Martinez. Should be pretty cheap due to fielding limitations but would be amazing middle of the order bats that are both familiar playing in Boston. Might be a bit right hand heavy lineup, but I don’t think it should matter since these guys hit both sides so well.

I'm all in on Burnes (I think I first proposed a trade for him on SOSH in September 2022 since it seemed obvious the Brewers were not going to extend him). In fact, I'd wager that Burnes has better numbers over the next 5 years than Yamamoto.

Pass on Giolito. Too many walks. Drury would be fine but I think the offense will be above average regardless of who plays second base so I'd go defense first and I've been pining to sign Mitch Garver for a while to fill the role that of right handed DH with some positional flexibility.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Dec 19, 2023

If Mayer wasn’t injured last season and continuesd along his arc from high A he’d be higher rated than Anthony. Guy had an injury and everyone here has decided he’s expendable. If this was exactly one year ago and the mention of including him in a deal for one season of a pitcher- no matter how good- there was threats of violence

jwbasham84 · Dec 19, 2023

Giolito owns the prestigious record of being the first pitcher since 1899 to give up 8+ runs in starts with three different teams in the same year... hard pass...

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Dec 19, 2023

jwbasham84 said:
Giolito owns the prestigious record of being the first pitcher since 1899 to give up 8+ runs in starts with three different teams in the same year... hard pass...

So you're saying he's a record holder...

bosox1534 · Dec 19, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
If Mayer wasn’t injured last season and continuesd along his arc from high A he’d be higher rated than Anthony. Guy had an injury and everyone here has decided he’s expendable. If this was exactly one year ago and the mention of including him in a deal for one season of a pitcher- no matter how good- there was threats of violence

Well ya, you explained our reasoning for why we see him as expendable in your post. Opinions change based on results.

grepal · Dec 19, 2023

Mantush said:
I don't see a world where the Marlins accept a trade for Luzardo that doesn't include more of the positional player prospect core. BTV has your proposed trade massively in favor of the Sox. There's significant questions about Ceddanne's bat that hamper his value in any possible trade. Dalbec has no trade value. This means the only meaningful piece going to the Marlins is Duran, and Duran had a very high BABIP last year so I'd imagine teams, including the Sox, are skeptical about him being able to reproduce his 2023 season. Steamer isn't too kind to him next year. I think a more realistic package would necessitate the inclusion of either one of Yorke or Bleis or a pairing of a lottery tickets. Personally, the inclusion of either Bleis or Yorke wouldn't dissuade me from acquiring Luzardo. I also think Stroman signs for more than an AAV of 16.67M. Fangraphs is projecting him in at an AAV of 22M.

I like the rest of your suggestions, especially Taylor. I wanted the Red Sox to acquire both Taylor and Mondesi from the Royals last year before Taylor was traded to the Twins. The Sox did eventually trade for Mondesi but we all know how well that turned out...

Better sign Montgomery or Snell too or this team will not be in a position to win this division. Big boys play in the AL East. Only Tampa can compete on the cheap, but thet never win it all.

Apisith · Dec 19, 2023

If we’re out on Yamamoto then let’s load up the ‘pen. 5/$100m for Hader and 4/$40m to Hicks. Pen innings mainly is Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Hader and Hicks. Pick one who’s going to be the Jamesian relief ace, maybe Hader will take it now that he gets paid.

Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock become long relief so they don’t have to go through the 3rd time through the order crap. It is what it is.

Sign Stroman for 2/$50m and give Kershaw 1/$25m.

That takes the outlay to around $80m/year. We’ll be more competitive but not favourites. It gives more time for the farm system to produce.

jon abbey · Dec 20, 2023

Apisith said:
If we’re out on Yamamoto then let’s load up the ‘pen. 5/$100m for Hader and 4/$40m to Hicks. Pen innings mainly is Jansen, Martin, Schreiber, Hader and Hicks. Pick one who’s going to be the Jamesian relief ace, maybe Hader will take it now that he gets paid.

Houck, Winckowski and Whitlock become long relief so they don’t have to go through the 3rd time through the order crap. It is what it is.

Sign Stroman for 2/$50m and give Kershaw 1/$25m.

That takes the outlay to around $80m/year. We’ll be more competitive but not favourites. It gives more time for the farm system to produce.

Kershaw is out for the first 3-4 months of the season and will almost certainly sign with LAD or maybe TEX if he comes back, which he hadn't even decided for sure last I saw.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/clayton-kershaw-injury-free-agent-pitcher-announces-shoulder-surgery-reveals-summer-timetable-for-return/

But I think the rest of this approach makes sense, you just need someone else in that slot. I predicted Stroman (and E-Rod) to BOS in maybe August, I still think he makes a lot of sense as the best FA RHP left, after Yamamoto obv.

Harry Hooper · Dec 20, 2023

There is some baggage between Stroman and Boston stemming from his close ties to David Price. He also had a spat with Cora. That doesn't mean he would not sign here, but it exists.

jon abbey · Dec 20, 2023

Ah, interesting, didn't know that.

He also has past public issues with both the Yankees and the Mets too, dude has burned more bridges than William Sherman, gonna be fascinating to see where he lands.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 20, 2023

simplicio said:
I don't get wanting to sign Giolito. He walked 3.5/9 and gave up 2 HR/9 this year. People would be calling for Craig's head by the end of April. He hasn't looked like a good pitcher since 2021.

Can't speak for anyone else, but for me, it's that I think Bailey and Breslow can get him back to being the guy he was from 2019-2021.

He has a very good pitch mix (which I think sequencing could help with) and seems to have solid mechanics.

He also does something that I think the Boston Error Bars desperately need, which is the ability to eat innings. He'd admittedly be a bit "less" necessary if the team signed Montgomery first, and if someone really wants to make the case for Imanaga, Stroman or whomever in that SP3 spot, I'm fine with it. I loathe the short term deals for pitchers and going through this cycle of having to build a rotation from scratch every single year. It didn't work in 2022 or 2023 and I think it's the philosophy that is broken, not just that you need a different person running said philosophy.

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
If Mayer wasn’t injured last season and continuesd along his arc from high A he’d be higher rated than Anthony. Guy had an injury and everyone here has decided he’s expendable. If this was exactly one year ago and the mention of including him in a deal for one season of a pitcher- no matter how good- there was threats of violence

Nobody - in this thread at least - has said that.

There is no chance I'd trade Mayer for one season of Corbin Burnes (or any pitcher). Ultimately, (while I'd try like heck to trade other pieces first) I would trade him for 7 yrs of Corbin Burnes at $210m. We're all saying Mayer would only be considered being moved like this in a scenario where there was an extension in place (kind of like how LAD wouldn't have moved Pepiot without a Glasnow deal).

I think this off-season is showing that there is no guarantee of getting the SP you want in free agency when it's just money. So IF you could get Burnes to agree to 7/$210m, I'd ultimately trade any of our prospects for that. In no way, shape or form would I (and I don't believe anyone in this thread has) advocate any of Mayer, Anthony or Teel for one year of Burnes (or anyone).

Yaz4Ever · Dec 20, 2023

Harry Hooper said:
There is some baggage between Stroman and Boston stemming from his close ties to David Price. He also had a spat with Cora. That doesn't mean he would not sign here, but it exists.

Didn't I also read a couple of years ago that he doesn't like Boston due to its racist past? Some people just won't sign with certain teams, and that's their prerogative. Vlad Jr won't play for NYY, for example.

Yo La Tengo · Dec 20, 2023

I'd add Framber Valdez to the short list of pitchers I'd like to see a trade for this winter. He has two more years of arbitration, will turn 31 next August, and has put up back to back seasons of 200 innings with very good results (his groundball % would make improving defense at 2B even more important).

Vague reports say that the Astros aren't shopping him but are listening to offers, which doesn't reveal a whole lot. Payroll issues with some speculation that Houston will extend Bregman or Valdez but not both.

Yaz4Ever · Dec 20, 2023

My moves:

Sign Yamamoto (the rest is the same whether he signs with us or not)
Sign Montgomery
Trade for Burnes/Adames (yes, I'd go after 3 studs for our rotation even if Yamamoto signs)
1. Do everything possible to extend Burnes, but Boras may not be interested
If Burnes/Adames trade doesn't happen - see what it takes for Kim from SD and at least shore up the Middle Infield and then pursue a trade for one of the young arms in Seattle after they sign Snell
Sign Mitch Garver or another RH power bat that can spell other positions and DH - Teoscar, JT, and JD would be backup options. Don't see us signing Bellinger.

a rotation of Yamamoto/Burnes/Montgomery/Bello/Sale is pretty solid. Improved middle infield D and a RHH power bat balancing our lineup and we're contenders. Makes Houck and Crawford available in trades.

If we miss out on Yamamoto, slide everyone forward 1 spot and put Houck/Crawford/Pivetta (whoever isn't dealt to acquire Burnes/Seattle arm) in the number 5 slot

If we miss out on Yamamoto and Montgomery, I'm fairly pessimistic on our rotation as I'm assuming Snell stays on the west coast and now we're having to try to work a deal for Luzardo/Valez or someone else and dealing from a position of weakness.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Dec 20, 2023

Love the Valdez, idea, but I'm really struggling to think of a single trade for an even decent youngish SP with term left, traded for prospects that didn't need a really good pitching prospect going back, which the Sox just don't have.

Anyone else can chime in ideas, but there is really only one I can think of recently that is close (Castillo).

Berrios cost Martin and Woods-Richardson.

Gray cost Chase Petty.

Glasnow (whom I have no interest in and doesn't have term, but whatever) cost Pepiot.

Castillo is probably the closest, but he required a healthy top 15ish prospect (Marte, roughly equivalent to Mayer) and Edwin Arroyo (lets call him roughly equivalent to Yorke, though not a perfect comp). Stoudt was probably somewhere close to a "Walter" type piece, but really once you get outside of the top 150 it's tough to have any gauge at all.

So maybe something like Mayer, Yorke and Walter gets it done for Valdez (or similar). I'd make that deal, but you're probably talking roughly that type of a package to get Houston to consider it. FWIW, and just as a point of reference, BTV calls that a "moderate overpay" for the Red Sox, which leads me to believe it's at least close enough to discuss.

Petagine in a Bottle · Dec 20, 2023

Astros have a 26 year old SS who won WS MVP a few years ago and put up a 3-4 win season in a down year. Mayer seems like a weird match in a deal for Valdez, IMO. They’ve got Altuve at 2b; free agent after next year but seems likely to stick around, I would think? So not sure Yorke is a great match either.

simplicio · Dec 20, 2023

Astros ask probably starts with Anthony/Teel.

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