Moves I'd Make

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

They traded 2 prospects for Verlander - one in AA and one in A+. It’s unlikely either one of those guys will make an impact within the next couple of years. People are talking about trading for Hunter Brown and Chas McCormick. Brown was a consensus top 50 prospect who had a good rookie season and McCormick put up nearly 4 WAR last year. Not only would the cost be astronomical but both figure to contribute significantly to their team this year. I don’t see how it’s comparable at all.

At a certain level (re Hunter Brown) I admit there is some wishcasting in there, mostly because the idea of a season of Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Pivetta and one of Houck, Whitlock Winckowski followed up by an ostensible season of Bello, Crawford, and then continuing to cobble together from Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski and Fitts is so incredibly awful to think about that I'm trying to find any way that the rotation might not be horrible from now until however long it takes Breslow to fix the minor league pitching (non)pipeline...



However, as to why I think it COULD make some sense, like you said, Houston has a wide open two year window, but it's probably more like a GFIN year for them since both Verlander and Altuve are up at the end of this year, and neither is getting any younger.

The top half of their rotation is set (Vadlez, Javier, Verlander) AND they have a lot of SP4/5 type depth (JP France, Brandon Bielak, Jose Urquidy) AND they have their own version of James Paxton (Lance McCullers, who gets hurt every year, is generally pretty good for the 20ish games he pitches and is supposed to be back around the ASG) AND that would leave them their top prospect in Arrighetti that isn't too far off from MLB. Oh, and as an added bonus, they also have Luis Garcia who should be back from TJS in 2025.

Then, Boston is paying for (and rebuilding) their bullpen by sending them Jansen and Martin. Oh, and you're giving them a SP for this year in Pivetta to replace Brown while they see which of their 5 Tanner Houck's sticks in the rotation, or if that's Arrighetti. Along with Luis Garcia coming back in 2025. Beyond that, you're taking approximately $20m off their books (Abreu) that they can use to sign one of Hoskins, Santana, Belt or Cron.

Houston is also right up close to the tax threshold, and they generally haven't been an organization to just blow through that. So it's asking Houston to make a call for this year on which they think is better suited toward winning a world series.

Valdez, Javier, Verlander, Brown, France (guessing) with Urquidy, Bielak, McCullers (July) and Arrighetti.
Bullpen of Pressley, Abreu and whatever else they have.
Jose Abreu and his .680 OPS as their 1b.
No money left to spend (assuming $LTT).


Valdez, Javier, Verlander, Pivetta, France (still with Urquidy, Bielak, McCullers - in July - and Arrighetti.
Absolutely filthy bullpen of Pressley, Jansen, Abreu, Martin.
Approximately $20m to spend filling 1b and other assorted holes, and I'll call that Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt for around $15m and an additional $5m to use.

FWIW, BTV hasn't updated agreed to arb deals yet (Pivetta) but a deal of:
Houston gets Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and $31m to pay their salaries ($7.5m, $16m, $7.5m)
Boston gets Abreu (Houston pays no money) and Hunter Brown

Comes out as 37.8 total value from Boston; 35.6 total value from Houston. I suppose we have no idea if Houston would rather have Hoskins or Belt than Abreu, but I could see why they might.



I think the latter iteration is a lot more likely to win a World Series, but that's just me.





*I still don't think Houston would do it, but I can see why asking might make some sense. Plus, there was no part of me that would have thought (pre deal) that Atlanta would trade Vaughn Grissom for Sale.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I think trading Duran and a bullpen piece for McCormick and Jose Abreu makes a lot of sense. McCormick seems like a great building block for the Red Sox: 28 years old, right-handed, plus defense in center field or right field...and Jose Abreu is probably just as much as a risk as Soler, Turner, or any other free agent with right-handed power. For what it's worth, MLB Trade Simulator sees any deal where the Red Sox take back Abreu's contract as a huge win for Houston.

 

[chawson]

I think trading Duran and a bullpen piece for McCormick and Jose Abreu makes a lot of sense. McCormick seems like a great building block for the Red Sox: 28 years old, right-handed, plus defense in center field or right field...and Jose Abreu is probably just as much as a risk as Soler, Turner, or any other free agent with right-handed power. For what it's worth, MLB Trade Simulator sees any deal where the Red Sox take back Abreu's contract as a huge win for Houston.

I don't hate that but I'd rather just sign Soler, who'd seem to have way fewer question marks than Abreu as our DH.

McCormick and Duran are very different players but seem like roughly similar assets to me, if that makes sense. To me, the case for signing Soler includes freeing up Duran for a trade for a starter, with the assumption that Yoshida stays in left and some combination of O'Neill, Abreu and Refsnyder (and Michael Taylor?) handle CF for a year until Anthony takes over in 2025.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Valdez, Javier, Verlander, Pivetta, France (still with Urquidy, Bielak, McCullers - in July - and Arrighetti.
Absolutely filthy bullpen of Pressley, Jansen, Abreu, Martin.
Approximately $20m to spend filling 1b and other assorted holes, and I'll call that Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt for around $15m and an additional $5m to use.

FWIW, BTV hasn't updated agreed to arb deals yet (Pivetta) but a deal of:
Houston gets Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and $31m to pay their salaries ($7.5m, $16m, $7.5m)
Boston gets Abreu (Houston pays no money) and Hunter Brown

Comes out as 37.8 total value from Boston; 35.6 total value from Houston. I suppose we have no idea if Houston would rather have Hoskins or Belt than Abreu, but I could see why they might.



I think the latter iteration is a lot more likely to win a World Series, but that's just me.

It’s an interesting idea and I can definitely see the logic. And if Houston were truly going all in this year I think they might consider it.

The issue for me is really the out years. In 2024, you can make the case that Pivetta+Martin+Kenley+Hoskins > Brown+Abreu. After 2024, Houston would be left with nothing except possibly savings from not having Abreu (but maybe not if they bring in Hoskins on a multi year deal). Is that marginal upgrade in 2024 really worth the 4 additional cost controlled years of Hunter Brown that they are giving up?

And not to belabor the point but Hunter Brown is an incredibly valuable asset. Fangraphs had him ranked as the 40th highest valued trade asset in baseball last year - ahead of Luzardo (unranked), Cease (honorable mention), Burnes (honorable mention) and most of the other “available” starting pitchers that get mentioned here. The cost to acquire him would be astronomical.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

It’s an interesting idea and I can definitely see the logic. And if Houston were truly going all in this year I think they might consider it.

The issue for me is really the out years. In 2024, you can make the case that Pivetta+Martin+Kenley+Hoskins > Brown+Abreu. After 2024, Houston would be left with nothing except possibly savings from not having Abreu (but maybe not if they bring in Hoskins on a multi year deal). Is that marginal upgrade in 2024 really worth the 4 additional cost controlled years of Hunter Brown that they are giving up?

And not to belabor the point but Hunter Brown is an incredibly valuable asset. Fangraphs had him ranked as the 40th highest valued trade asset in baseball last year - ahead of Luzardo (unranked), Cease (honorable mention), Burnes (honorable mention) and most of the other “available” starting pitchers that get mentioned here. The cost to acquire him would be astronomical.

Hunter Brown got hit extremely hard in 2023. I understand he is young with really great looking stuff. But he gave up a .511 slug on his fastball last year. He was in the bottom 8% of the league in average exit velocity. Bottom 9% of he league in barrel %.

He throws hard, the curve looks pretty fantastic, but there are some real problems going on. I'd love to have him, obviously, but it's not a slam dunk.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Jose Abreu was a 0.0 WAR player last year. He looked absolutely cooked. I don’t want any dead weight on this payroll unless it’s a sure thing coming back. Hunter Brown is intriguing but far from a sure thing for me. I would pass on this hypothetical.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It’s an interesting idea and I can definitely see the logic. And if Houston were truly going all in this year I think they might consider it.

The issue for me is really the out years. In 2024, you can make the case that Pivetta+Martin+Kenley+Hoskins > Brown+Abreu. After 2024, Houston would be left with nothing except possibly savings from not having Abreu (but maybe not if they bring in Hoskins on a multi year deal). Is that marginal upgrade in 2024 really worth the 4 additional cost controlled years of Hunter Brown that they are giving up?

And not to belabor the point but Hunter Brown is an incredibly valuable asset. Fangraphs had him ranked as the 40th highest valued trade asset in baseball last year - ahead of Luzardo (unranked), Cease (honorable mention), Burnes (honorable mention) and most of the other “available” starting pitchers that get mentioned here. The cost to acquire him would be astronomical.

Fair points. I honestly have no idea how Houston views the next two years and what the plan to do when basically everyone is up at roughly the same time. Were I in charge there, I'd be doing everything I could to maximize that window with Altuve and Verlander (within reason, as in I'd consider trading Hunter Brown but no way would I consider trading Framber Valdez).

Though I agree it's not terribly realistic. There is - as mentioned - a lot of wishcasting because it's the middle of January, 15 degrees out and it looks like the Sox rotation is going to be abysmal, so I'm looking for ways for it not to be abysmal.

The more realistic path is probably portioning off Jansen, Martin and (if not extended) Pivetta for the best prospects you can get rather than putting them all together with a ton of money to get one really good prospect (ie Brown, Max Meyer, etc). I'll be looking at those soon enough though.

 

[TomRicardo]

Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen will have more value in late July then they would now. Giolito could be valuable as well. Brown is completely unreachable today however you could be able to pluck him away if he has another slow start and Houston is looking for 4th starter and a bullpen arm in July. That said, if you are looking for an arm from Houston Lance McCullers would not be too expensive and offers a bit more upside than Giolito with his contract. He has been injured since 2021 postseason however Houston may look for a steady arm like Pivetta and/or some lower prospects / bullpen arms to unload his contract. That is a medium risk / high reward.

 

[nvalvo]

Another angle. I read on Twitter that Rangers AAA 2B/1B prospect Justin Foscue might be available in trade, given the lack of room in that stacked infield.

He’s a 24 year old RH contact over power dude, but has an .879 OPS in the minors (huuuuge OBPs). If the Sox believe that they can actually add bat speed to hitters, this might be a very interesting DH/IF option, a RH bat to pair with Yoshida, Casas, and Devers. I would be eager to deal from our relief surplus for him.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen will have more value in late July then they would now. Giolito could be valuable as well. Brown is completely unreachable today however you could be able to pluck him away if he has another slow start and Houston is looking for 4th starter and a bullpen arm in July. That said, if you are looking for an arm from Houston Lance McCullers would not be too expensive and offers a bit more upside than Giolito with his contract. He has been injured since 2021 postseason however Houston may look for a steady arm like Pivetta and/or some lower prospects / bullpen arms to unload his contract. That is a medium risk / high reward.

Entirely possible. Of course, it's entirely possible that 36 and 38 year old pitchers get hurt because, well, they'll be 36 and 38.

Also entirely possible that Martin has a half season like he did in Chicago in 2022 (4.31ERA in his first 34 games) where he might not be as valuable.

But those are both of course hypotheticals. My point though is more as follows - use the Sox financial resources to in essence double dip on buying SP prospects.

Boston could eat the full freight for Jansen, Martin and Pivetta right now and get 3 pitching prospects.

That still leaves them with ~$35m to spend. Then the can go out and sign "David Robertson", "Aroldis Chapman" and "HJ Ryu" for $10m and HOPE they're valuable at the deadline too. So maybe you get 6 starting pitching prospects instead of 3. Also eliminates the "worst case" scenario - all three (Jansen, Martin, Pivetta) getting hurt and getting nothing from them that has any chance of benefitting the 2025+ team.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How much do we think teams will really give up for subsidized Martin and Jansen, both projected as <1 win players. You need to find contenders who would rather give up prospects than spend cash which doesn’t seem all that likely, to me, at least.

 

[TomRicardo]

How much do we think teams will really give up for subsidized Martin and Jansen, both projected as <1 win players. You need to find contenders who would rather give up prospects than spend cash which doesn’t seem all that likely, to me, at least.

No one is going to go for them now. You need to wait to see who is dealing with injury or needs an extra piece to get over the top. Hence why they are more valuable in July. There are always 14-18 teams competing in July and at least one will look at one of those guys as improvement unless the wheels fall off the bus.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Possibly.

I just don't see the reason for someone like Heyman to link Jensen and the Dodgers (as an example) if there isn't some smoke to it (Jansen isn't a Boras client, nor is Hader as the top closer on the market). https://nypost.com/2024/01/11/sports/guardians-unlikely-to-trade-shane-bieber/?sr_share=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=nypost_sports

Either way. Since the team isn't going to add significantly to help the 2025+ team, I'd rather think about them subtracting from 2024 to add for 2025+ then to simply go into a season with no real chance of contending AND do nothing to build up for 2025+.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

Another angle. I read on Twitter that Rangers AAA 2B/1B prospect Justin Foscue might be available in trade, given the lack of room in that stacked infield.

He’s a 24 year old RH contact over power dude, but has an .879 OPS in the minors (huuuuge OBPs). If the Sox believe that they can actually add bat speed to hitters, this might be a very interesting DH/IF option, a RH bat to pair with Yoshida, Casas, and Devers. I would be eager to deal from our relief surplus for him.

I've said this before but Ezequiel Duran has the same profile and intrigues me even more than Foscue.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I've said this before but Ezequiel Duran has the same profile and intrigues me even more than Foscue.

How do they have the same profile? One is an exit velocity power darling who swings at everything (Duran) and the other is a contact over power high quality approach player (Foscue)

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

How do they have the same profile? One is an exit velocity power darling who swings at everything (Duran) and the other is a contact over power high quality approach player (Foscue)

Fair enough, I meant the "young right handed hitter with some positional versatility who is blocked in Texas and could be part of a young core in Boston" aspect. You are correct of course, they have different bat profiles.

I prefer Duran for the power and the higher probability of future defensive value.

 

[YTF]

How much do we think teams will really give up for subsidized Martin and Jansen, both projected as <1 win players. You need to find contenders who would rather give up prospects than spend cash which doesn’t seem all that likely, to me, at least.

It depends on the team, the need and other options that might be available to them. It also depends on the sort of deal they are willing to make. I think another way to look at this (again everything hinges on potential partners and their needs) what other pieces can we add to get a deal done that is satisfactory to both sides.

 

[ehaz]

Pivetta, Martin, and Jansen will have more value in late July then they would now. Giolito could be valuable as well. Brown is completely unreachable today however you could be able to pluck him away if he has another slow start and Houston is looking for 4th starter and a bullpen arm in July. That said, if you are looking for an arm from Houston Lance McCullers would not be too expensive and offers a bit more upside than Giolito with his contract. He has been injured since 2021 postseason however Houston may look for a steady arm like Pivetta and/or some lower prospects / bullpen arms to unload his contract. That is a medium risk / high reward.

McCullers is a new idea I actually really like. He's kind of like Blake Snell-lite with his swing and miss and run prevention while walking too many guys. ~$17M AAV for the next three seasons. I still don't think the Astros move him because they're in GFIN mode before Altuve, Bregman, Framber and Verlander reach FA. But if McCullers is supposed to be out until June/July maybe that changes things just enough to where they'd value immediate contributors like Pivetta and Martin more.

 

[TomRicardo]

McCullers is a new idea I actually really like. He's kind of like Blake Snell-lite with his swing and miss and run prevention while walking too many guys. ~$17M AAV for the next three seasons. I still don't think the Astros move him because they're in GFIN mode before Altuve, Bregman, Framber and Verlander reach FA. But if McCullers is supposed to be out until June/July maybe that changes things just enough to where they'd value immediate contributors like Pivetta and Martin more.

Yea it really depends on his Spring. If you are taking a step back this year, I would be looking for players on the comeback with reasonable contracts. The Dodgers may make sense as well with Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

Edit - There really very little I wouldn't give up for May. Casas, Devers, Bello, Grissom, and Mayers is probably it. I would try Pivetta, (any prospects out of the top four), and Martin then work from there if they bite at all. My guess is they are waiting to see if Snell or Montgomery would be willing to take ~ 30 mil / 1 yr contract like Teoscar.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

McCullers is a new idea I actually really like. He's kind of like Blake Snell-lite with his swing and miss and run prevention while walking too many guys. ~$17M AAV for the next three seasons. I still don't think the Astros move him because they're in GFIN mode before Altuve, Bregman, Framber and Verlander reach FA. But if McCullers is supposed to be out until June/July maybe that changes things just enough to where they'd value immediate contributors like Pivetta and Martin more.

Man, McCullers really scares me. The guy just cannot stay healthy. He's also 30 years old already. The Astros would have to pick up a big chunk of that money for me to have any interest, when the alternative is moving Pivetta/Martin/Jansen for cheap pitching prospects that better match up with the timeline that guys like Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. They may not have the upside of a McCullers, but the Sox just got out of the Sale contract for a lot of the same reasons I'd avoid McCullers. I don't know that I'd want to go down that route again praying this guy can get duct taped together while paying him anything close to $17M per year for 3 more seasons.

2023: 0 starts
2022: 8 starts, 47 innings
2021: 28 starts, 162 innings
2020: 11 starts, 55 innings

 

[nvalvo]

To be fair, Sale’s contract was considerably more burdensome than McCullers’ remaining ~3/$50m or so. (He’s also a better pitcher.)

 

[ehaz]

Yeah and 3/$50M is basically what a #4 starter gets on the FA market these days. Also a hypothetical Pivetta ($7.M) + Martin ($9.5M) for McCullers would essentially be payroll neutral for 2024.

I think that's a reasonable gamble when you're looking at top of the rotation upside that you'd otherwise need to pay much more heavily for in terms of dollars or prospects. For a team that has no long-term commitments on the books, $17M AAV shouldn't prevent you from adding anything else you might want in '25 or '26.

 

[simplicio]

Am I alone in preferring to extend Pivetta to trading him plus something else for McCullers?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Am I alone in preferring to extend Pivetta to trading him plus something else for McCullers?

Nope. I want zero part of McCullers. Just can’t stay healthy. Would rather sign Paxton for just $$$.

 

[TomRicardo]

Man, McCullers really scares me. The guy just cannot stay healthy. He's also 30 years old already. The Astros would have to pick up a big chunk of that money for me to have any interest, when the alternative is moving Pivetta/Martin/Jansen for cheap pitching prospects that better match up with the timeline that guys like Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. They may not have the upside of a McCullers, but the Sox just got out of the Sale contract for a lot of the same reasons I'd avoid McCullers. I don't know that I'd want to go down that route again praying this guy can get duct taped together while paying him anything close to $17M per year for 3 more seasons.

2023: 0 starts
2022: 8 starts, 47 innings
2021: 28 starts, 162 innings
2020: 11 starts, 55 innings

Everyone really needs to stop with this. There is no timeline Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. You hope at least one of them turn into an all star. You don't plan your franchise around three top 50 prospects. You wouldn't plan your franchise around 3 top 10 prospects. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi were better regarded prospects than all three of those guys fairly large margin.

The Red Sox system in 2016 was so much stronger than it is now. After graduating Mookie and Xander who became all stars pre arb, the Red Sox had the 3, 15, 18, 19, and 89 prospects. They traded 3, 19, and 89 for Sale. 15 became 1 the next year. 4 years later this was a last place team and only Devers was still with the Sox. Mind you, 3 was Moncada who is till a decent borderline starting player and Espinoza who pitched one season in the majors.

 

[opes]

Jose Abreu was a 0.0 WAR player last year. He looked absolutely cooked. I don’t want any dead weight on this payroll unless it’s a sure thing coming back. Hunter Brown is intriguing but far from a sure thing for me. I would pass on this hypothetical.

I was thinking the same thing. Theres no reason for Abreu on this team if you want to improve it.

 

[RS2004foreever]

It is December 2024. Giolito has had a good year, as has Pivetta.
This is the entirety of your starting rotation heading into 2025

Bello
Houck
Crawford

To even keep the rotation together you would have to sign Pivetta to an E-Rod esque deal and Giolito for 4/100.
And you are no better.

I believe the Red Sox will come close to or sign Montgomery. Because if they do not they are worse than screwed.
If they are not trying to extend Pivetta they are completely incompetent.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Am I alone in preferring to extend Pivetta to trading him plus something else for McCullers?

No, not at all. I've been advocating this for a while.

However, if the Sox aren't going to extend PIvetta and lets just say you could get McCullers for Pivetta and something else that won't be here in 2025 and beyond, and thus I'd rather have McCullers for 2024, 2025 and 2026 than just Nick Pivetta and whatever those other things are for just 2024.

(I want them to extend Pivetta, though).

 

[Rovin Romine]

Everyone really needs to stop with this. There is no timeline Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. You hope at least one of them turn into an all star.

I don't think they do. They're the top prospects in the system and they do have a reasonably expected arrival date.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Everyone really needs to stop with this. There is no timeline Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. You hope at least one of them turn into an all star. You don't plan your franchise around three top 50 prospects. You wouldn't plan your franchise around 3 top 10 prospects. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi were better regarded prospects than all three of those guys fairly large margin.

The Red Sox system in 2016 was so much stronger than it is now. After graduating Mookie and Xander who became all stars pre arb, the Red Sox had the 3, 15, 18, 19, and 89 prospects. They traded 3, 19, and 89 for Sale. 15 became 1 the next year. 4 years later this was a last place team and only Devers was still with the Sox. Mind you, 3 was Moncada who is till a decent borderline starting player and Espinoza who pitched one season in the majors.

This exactly. Preference is to hold onto all three (Teel, Anthony, Mayer is my order of preference), but if we can get a young cost-controlled SP for 3+ years for any of them, I’ll wish them well.

 

[YTF]

Am I alone in preferring to extend Pivetta to trading him plus something else for McCullers?

No you're not. IMO, keeping and extending Pivetta plus whatever you fetch for Martin > McCullers

 

[nvalvo]

Jose Abreu was a 0.0 WAR player last year. He looked absolutely cooked. I don’t want any dead weight on this payroll unless it’s a sure thing coming back. Hunter Brown is intriguing but far from a sure thing for me. I would pass on this hypothetical.

True. The bull case for Abreu is this split: first 120 games of 2023: .232/.292/.347. Last 21 games of 2023: .266/.322/.595.

Not sure how much stock should be placed in that, but those are pretty vividly different lines.

 

[BigSoxFan]

True. The bull case for Abreu is this split: first 120 games of 2023: .232/.292/.347. Last 21 games of 2023: .266/.322/.595.

Not sure how much stock should be placed in that, but those are pretty vividly different lines.

Yeah, helpful to see that split but hard to get too excited when even the hot streak only showed a .322 OBP. Just feels like given his age, the bearish projection is probably most likely to be correct. Looks like 2 straight years of an ISO below .150 when .161 was the league average last year. His EV and hard hit % saw big declines last year as well after being remarkably consistent for the prior 8-9 years.

Based on what I see, I see a $20M slug on the payroll for the next 2 years. Would need a Grissom like return to get me interested and would still want Houston to pay some freight.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Moves I'd make at this point:

*Sign Hyun jin Ryu to a 1yr deal. career 3.27 ERA 1.18 WHIP, has AL East experience, it'd be great to have another LHP, the B's are pitching whisperers
*Sign Jorge Soler to a 2yr deal w/ option based on hitting incentives. Younger than Duvall, Turner. Fits perfectly between Devers and Casas. Good OBP. Fenway.
*Trade Jansen and eat as much as 10m of his 16m, maybe more for the best pitching prospect you can get. Make Houck closer.
*Extend Pivetta, Casas and maybe Bello in ST
* Refsnyder is expendable, O'Neil is better all around player.
*Give Rafaela every chance to make opening day as super UT guy and bat 9th whenever/wherever he plays
*Have Dalbec on opening day roster as backup 1B/3B. You can have him only start against LHP and put him in bottom 3rd of order.

 

[Spud]

Moves I'd make at this point:

*Sign Hyun jin Ryu to a 1yr deal. career 3.27 ERA 1.18 WHIP, has AL East experience, it'd be great to have another LHP, the B's are pitching whisperers
*Sign Jorge Soler to a 2yr deal w/ option based on hitting incentives. Younger than Duvall, Turner. Fits perfectly between Devers and Casas. Good OBP. Fenway.
*Trade Jansen and eat as much as 10m of his 16m, maybe more for the best pitching prospect you can get. Make Houck closer.
*Extend Pivetta, Casas and maybe Bello in ST
* Refsnyder is expendable, O'Neil is better all around player.
*Give Rafaela every chance to make opening day as super UT guy and bat 9th whenever/wherever he plays
*Have Dalbec on opening day roster as backup 1B/3B. You can have him only start against LHP and put him in bottom 3rd of order.

I like this lineup, but throw this out for consideration: Sign Hoskins to DH and back up 1B (assumes he's healthy and ready to go). I'm not convinced Soler is the answer to any of Boston's problems. That would leave Dalbec to back up 3B, assuming they have nobody else who can do it by the time the season starts. He seems like a great kid, but I've had my fill of watching him flail away at stuff that runs low and away out of the strike zone.

 

[simplicio]

I don't think it's responsible to get rid of Refsnyder before you have a clearer picture of what Rafaela is.

 

[loneredseat]

I have a question:
Being that the sox have room in the budget now (but want to save room in the budget a few years from now for when they hope to be more competitive) could they sign Montgomery or Snell and pay most of the contract in the first couple of years? Make 6/150 look like:
50
35
25
15
15
10
Or something like that?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

True. The bull case for Abreu is this split: first 120 games of 2023: .232/.292/.347. Last 21 games of 2023: .266/.322/.595.

Not sure how much stock should be placed in that, but those are pretty vividly different lines.

I might make a rebound bet on Abreu if a) I needed a 1B badly enough and b) if the price tag were significantly lower than 2/$39M. But the Red Sox don't need a 1B and he does cost 2/$39M.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I have a question:
Being that the sox have room in the budget now (but want to save room in the budget a few years from now for when they hope to be more competitive) could they sign Montgomery or Snell and pay most of the contract in the first couple of years? Make 6/150 look like:
50
35
25
15
15
10
Or something like that?

It's important to keep in mind that the "budget" is more the luxury tax number than the actual dollar amounts being spent, so even if they structured the contract that way, a 6/150 deal still breaks down to a $25M per season hit counted toward the luxury tax payroll. There's not a ton to be gained structuring it that way.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/bostonstrong_34/status/1748049072500445683?s=46


I listened to Breslow today and Ezequiel Durán made even more sense after his interviews.

He basically described him exactly.

The teams strengths and weaknesses line up well.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Ryu or Paxton on a 1 year deal and Hoskins on a 3 year deal would be solid signings, IMO, and make me feel a lot better about the season. Wouldn’t cost a ton, and allows the team to keep all their prospects. There has to be players who are getting anxious and will accept team friendly deals before long.

 

[loneredseat]

It's important to keep in mind that the "budget" is more the luxury tax number than the actual dollar amounts being spent, so even if they structured the contract that way, a 6/150 deal still breaks down to a $25M per season hit counted toward the luxury tax payroll. There's not a ton to be gained structuring it that way.

Gotcha. Thank you.
Does this apply to deferring money, as was done with Ohtani? Is his salary counting as 70 mil against the luxury tax payroll?
Again, thanks-

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Gotcha. Thank you.
Does this apply to deferring money, as was done with Ohtani? Is his salary counting as 70 mil against the luxury tax payroll?
Again, thanks-

Ohtani's deferred salary results in a $48M hit against the luxury tax payroll rather than $70M. I suppose that's a path the Red Sox could take with someone like Montgomery. They did it with the Sale extension, for example. It still requires the pitcher to go along with it though, and not every player wants deferred salary. At least not enough for it to make a significant dent in the luxury taxable salary number (e.g. Sale's deferrals reduced his AAV from ~$29M to $25.6M).

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Moves I'd make at this point:

*Sign Hyun jin Ryu to a 1yr deal. career 3.27 ERA 1.18 WHIP, has AL East experience, it'd be great to have another LHP, the B's are pitching whisperers
*Sign Jorge Soler to a 2yr deal w/ option based on hitting incentives. Younger than Duvall, Turner. Fits perfectly between Devers and Casas. Good OBP. Fenway.
*Trade Jansen and eat as much as 10m of his 16m, maybe more for the best pitching prospect you can get. Make Houck closer.
*Extend Pivetta, Casas and maybe Bello in ST
* Refsnyder is expendable, O'Neil is better all around player.
*Give Rafaela every chance to make opening day as super UT guy and bat 9th whenever/wherever he plays
*Have Dalbec on opening day roster as backup 1B/3B. You can have him only start against LHP and put him in bottom 3rd of order.

Yeah barring a surprise trade or a Snell/Monty signing I think this is the general blueprint for the rest of the off-season.

• Starting pitching depth - Ryu would be fine, as would Paxton. I also think there’s a chance we get one of the SFG swing guys - Jakob Junis (might be a little too redundant with Houck) or Alex Wood.
• RH power - Soler/Hoskins/Turner/Duvall - the best one who is willing to accept a one year deal. Each one offers a little bit of a different flavor of defense and that will impact your end of bench decisions
• The Jansen trade seems inevitable at this point
• Agree on the extension candidates. I’d get fairly aggressive with Casas too as his skill set tends to get rewarded in arbitration. A Pivetta extension would add some stability to next year’s rotation.
• My preference would be to keep Rafaela in AAA to start the season for service time reasons. If he stays down there for like a month we gain another year of control

We should be able to accomplish all that for around $35M I’m guessing which would put us right around the first CBT threshold.

 

[nvalvo]

I might make a rebound bet on Abreu if a) I needed a 1B badly enough and b) if the price tag were significantly lower than 2/$39M. But the Red Sox don't need a 1B and he does cost 2/$39M.

Oh, I’m not arguing for it. But if he was a really good hitter for a really long time, and weirdly again for the last few weeks of the season.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Oh, I’m not arguing for it. But if he was a really good hitter for a really long time, and weirdly again for the last few weeks of the season.

Also, to be clear. The only reason I advocated for Abreu was the shot (however small) at getting someone like Hunter Brown. Not because Abreu is likely to be good. Just like I'd advocate taking on A Garcia from the Marlins if some permutation of taking on his salary allowed the Sox to buy Max Meyer. It has all to do with the pitchers and nothing to do with those two batters.


Duran would be a nice piece. My only real question would be how do you get to his value?

It's not like Texas has shown (recently) any concerns about the Luxury Tax - so adding money to Jansen or Martin doesn't help them the way it ostensibly would teams that try to adhere to it such as Houston, Atlanta (Boston), etc nor teams that are just plain old cheap (Miami, anyone from the AL Central, etc.)

I suppose building a package of something like Winckowski and Martin gets pretty close in terms of value - and is something I'd do - but then you're moving a pitcher under control for a long time for NOT a pitcher that is under control for a long time, which doesn't seem like it fits with the team needs over the long term.

I tend to like Duran as well, so I'd consider that or something like it, but you're probably giving up something potentially much more valuable to the 2025-2028 Red Sox (Winckowski) than one year of Jansen or Martin so it's not as easy of a decision.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Why would anyone think there should be a roster spot for Rob Refsnyder? He is 32 yrs old. He is at best an average defender. He has struck out twice as much as he has walked in his career. He has no power, 1 HR in over 200 AB last season. He hits LHP well, but so do a lot of other guys with way more tools. Almost exclusively against LHP last year and still only managed a .682 OPS. He seems to have been a Bloom favorite, who found him off the scrap heap, then extended him mid-season. He seems like a nice enough guy, but I don't want that guy taking up one of the 13 position player spots with where this team is presently. Thoughts?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Why would anyone think there should be a roster spot for Rob Refsnyder? He is 32 yrs old. He is at best an average defender. He has struck out twice as much as he has walked in his career. He has no power, 1 HR in over 200 AB last season. He hits LHP well, but so do a lot of other guys with way more tools. Almost exclusively against LHP last year and still only managed a .682 OPS. He seems to have been a Bloom favorite, who found him off the scrap heap, then extended him mid-season. He seems like a nice enough guy, but I don't want that guy taking up one of the 13 position player spots with where this team is presently. Thoughts?

Agree totally. He has much more value as the short side of a platoon / bench bat to a contending team. On a rebuilding team (which whatever they want to tell you, the Red Sox are) he has no purpose.

However, he's here. He's under contract. He has probably no trade value whatsoever because there are tons of platoon-able OFs that will be just as cheap, so it's either DFA him or assume he's here. I doubt he's going to be DFA'ed since he's on a guaranteed contract. So it doesn't really matter if we think he's good, bad, unnecessary to the 2024 Red Sox and certainly not a part of 2025+, or just redundant, it's almost a certainty he's going to be on the roster.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Everyone really needs to stop with this. There is no timeline Mayer/Anthony/Teel are on. You hope at least one of them turn into an all star. You don't plan your franchise around three top 50 prospects. You wouldn't plan your franchise around 3 top 10 prospects. Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi were better regarded prospects than all three of those guys fairly large margin.

The Red Sox system in 2016 was so much stronger than it is now. After graduating Mookie and Xander who became all stars pre arb, the Red Sox had the 3, 15, 18, 19, and 89 prospects. They traded 3, 19, and 89 for Sale. 15 became 1 the next year. 4 years later this was a last place team and only Devers was still with the Sox. Mind you, 3 was Moncada who is till a decent borderline starting player and Espinoza who pitched one season in the majors.

Why would we need to stop with this when Craig Breslow is saying the exact same thing?

"But I think the reality is that it’s going to require a step forward from the young position players. It’s going to require the build-out of a talent pipeline of arms that we can acquire, we draft, and we can develop internally."

“And it’s going to require aggressive player development in the minor leagues and the major leagues so guys that we think are the next wave — (Marcelo) Mayer and (Roman) Anthony and (Kyle) Teel, that group — are not just big leaguers but impact big leaguers. The convergence of all those pieces is the fastest path to a World Series team."

My OP had nothing to do with not competing to win now. They can go out and sign Snell or Montgomery and make this team interesting or trade one of Mayer/Anthony/Teel for a proven top of the rotation starter. But I'd rather move Pivetta/Jansen/Martin for prospects that help "build-out a talent pipeline of arms" instead of for an oft-injured pitcher making $17M per for 3 years. I'm not sure why that's such a crazy idea that I shouldn't even speak of it.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Agree totally. He has much more value as the short side of a platoon / bench bat to a contending team. On a rebuilding team (which whatever they want to tell you, the Red Sox are) he has no purpose.

However, he's here. He's under contract. He has probably no trade value whatsoever because there are tons of platoon-able OFs that will be just as cheap, so it's either DFA him or assume he's here. I doubt he's going to be DFA'ed since he's on a guaranteed contract. So it doesn't really matter if we think he's good, bad, unnecessary to the 2024 Red Sox and certainly not a part of 2025+, or just redundant, it's almost a certainty he's going to be on the roster.

Why couldn't they DFA him? it'd be eating 1.85m. It seems well worth it to get more at bats for O'Neil, Rafaela, or possibly a Duvall or Soler or someone that would add way more to the 2024 lineup.