Moves I'd Make

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think the O’s are only paying McCann a minimal amount; Mets are paying the bulk.
Yup, he's costing the O's $650K against the luxury tax and about $4M in real dollars. That's not a terrible price for a veteran back-up to their dirt-cheap all star catcher.

But even if they were paying the full freight on his $12M salary (about $10M in luxury tax hit), it's not like they're hurting for salary flexibility. They're at $80M (real dollars) in total salary right now ($96M in luxury taxable dollars). McCann isn't stopping them from doing anything they need to do this winter or next summer.
 

bosox1534

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I would see what the Tigers want for Matt Manning. Good young starter controllable for 4 seasons I believe and wouldn’t cost nearly as much as a lot of the guys we’ve discussed on the forum.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Rightly or wrongly, the Tigers’ moves so far this winter have been those of a team that thinks it can compete next year, I doubt they’ll give up either of their best starters in a year when they’re attempting that pivot, even if it gets Baez off the books.
 

simplicio

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Nothing about the Tigers offseason suggests they want to sell off their good young pitching. They've been active buyers and they're clearly trying to compete in a soft division.
 

BeantownIdaho

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The trade talk on Bieber has been a little quiet lately. Is he still possibly available? Thoughts on a trade and what it would take. He is a Rosenhaus guy I believe so an extension might be more on the table versus Boras. Looking at the news that we may be open to trading from the bullpen, signing another outfielder plus adding Paxton could put some assets on the table for use (as everyone has pointed out).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is Bieber 100%? I think the uncertainty around his health makes it difficult to give up a ton for him and consider an extension.
 

BeantownIdaho

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buckner's_ankles

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What about something more like this?:

BOS gets Javier Baez, Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, Troy Melton
DET gets Chris Martin, Kenley Jansen

Maybe the Baez contract is so bad that the Sox ought to get more in return? Maybe the Tigers laugh at this offer and think that three of their top young pitchers are worth way more?
 

simplicio

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Detroit is 24th in payroll. Baez's contract doesn't hurt them a bit and these proposals about robbing them of any real talent to take on his deal are laughable.
 

SouthernBoSox

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A deal built around Kenley for Tommy Edman makes a lot of sense. Cards need bullpen help desperately.
Tommy Edman makes an unbelievable amount of sense for this roster because not only is he a dynamo at second, he can back up short, and he’s fantastic in center.

You can’t get him for Jansen. But Martin + money + an okay prospect might get you close
 

EyeBob

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Edman does make a lot of sense, he’s Arb 2, projected to make $8M this year, FA in 2026. Redbirdrants.com has a quick write up about him, stating that he could be a trade target. This might mean that he would be available. What it might take to get him is a good question. I am not sure if the Cardinals need BP depth, or a closer, but if so, sign me up for that type of trade. I like Edman-type players. Versatile, speedy, glove first kind of player that any middle infield could use. He could take any pressure off of the coming kids , since you would be getting 2 years of him.

https://redbirdrants.com/posts/st-louis-cardinals-top-7-offseason-trade-candidates-this-offseason-01hdpp3c1pjz/5
 

chawson

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I don't think sending any money makes it work. The issue isn't what the Sox should do, it's that there's no way the Tigers even listen to that offer. Baez isn't tying up enough money to give them any reason to move Skubal.

It is the kind of deal the Sox should be looking for, I agree, but I think this one is too far outside the realm of possibility.
I don’t know. I’m no expert on Tigers baseball but there seems to be tension between Báez and A.J. Hinch after this year. Maybe they’re motivated to move him?

Chances are remote on any deal like this, and it would be complex. The Tigers publicly put Skubal on the trade market in the summer of 2022 — before his injury. (Jansen is not a factor in that proposal, but he’s got some value and the money is significant.)

My preferred 2B acquisition is Jorge Polanco, but I get the concern about his defense. I’d also love to pry Noelvi Marte away from the Reds. I’m not sold on Drury, but he’d be fine. Whoever it is has to be better than Luis Urias, at least defensively. That would rule out someone like Urshela.

Báez is not a desirable option as is. But his salary could be an acceptable cost of acquiring a cost-controlled ace, and he’d help us more than other teams. If the Sox are having trouble convincing ace-level pitchers to sign for reasons unrelated to money, this is a good path. (I like Skubal better than Luzardo.) And I kinda do think that of all places where Báez could be recuperated, a Cora-led Boston team is up there.

I guess I’d wonder, what combination of players would make sense filling out a deal for the Sox to put Báez at 2B? There’s no point in doing it without Skubal, but Mayer seems too high on ours without additional counterbalance.
 

buckner's_ankles

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If the Tigers are hoping to win the Central this year, then they're not going to trade away a guy like Skubal; he'd be a key to winning now. I still think there's some version of a Báez trade that nets us pitching prospects without giving up any key parts of our projected 2025 roster. If Cora can also find a way to help Báez get back to any semblance of his former self, that would be icing on the cake.
 

BaseballJones

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The more I think about it, the more I'd consider moving both Jansen and Martin. Now, if I was convinced the Sox would field a playoff team this year, I'd keep both. But if not....move them. They're both still really good, but Martin was exceptionally good last year, and he's going to regress to the mean this year. No way he puts up another 1.05 era season (he's got a career era of 3.36 - still really good but not Koji-like). The Sox probably could get a pretty good return for these guys, should they decide to trade them.
 

InsideTheParker

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The more I think about it, the more I'd consider moving both Jansen and Martin. Now, if I was convinced the Sox would field a playoff team this year, I'd keep both. But if not....move them. They're both still really good, but Martin was exceptionally good last year, and he's going to regress to the mean this year. No way he puts up another 1.05 era season (he's got a career era of 3.36 - still really good but not Koji-like). The Sox probably could get a pretty good return for these guys, should they decide to trade them.
Gosh, now that the Sox didn't get Yamamoto, everybody wants to unload some of my favorites, of which Martin was one. He was good, so he's going to regress to the mean, but Yoshida fell off in the second half, so he's surely done, done, done. My head is spinning.
 

HighTek

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I fall on the side of Dont trade the top 3 prospects in any deal... Granted if you can get a cheap superstar w/ years of cheap control.... Might make you think - but I dont see that happing

I do not think this team is so close to contending that I would punt on the big 3 minor leaguers for a Pitcher to win now.

That said I would very much like them to explore going after Big Maple (who they are talking to) as well as Montas and Woodruff as buy low guys.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Blake Swihart, Lars Anderson, Craig Hansen, Rusney Castillo - how many can't-miss players have we had? Is Mayer part of that group or does he pan out like Xander, Pedroia, and others? I'm thinking with the trade for Grissom (possibly projecting him to the latter group when he belongs in the former), we have more to gain in terms of SP and a BIG RHH OFer if we include him in a group of Yorke, Duran, Cedanne, Jansen, and more. "Jerry Dipoto, Craig Breslow is on line 1 and, this time, you may want to hear him out. Order suitcases for Gilbert or Kirby, while you're at it."
 

YTF

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How many people in this thread imagined the Sale trade? I don't know, and I am genuinely curious.
I think many of us hoped for it, but few if any anticipated it. Being able to move Sale was huge in that it just eliminated the whole aura surrounding how many starts he might make as he certainly would have been in the rotation if he was still with Boston. IMO it removes a huge distraction from the team's rebuild of the pitching staff.
 

buckner's_ankles

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How many people in this thread imagined the Sale trade? I don't know, and I am genuinely curious.
Definitely thought that Jansen and Martin were more likely to get dealt this offseason. Trading Sale, especially for a young player with so much upside, felt like too much to hope for.
 

YTF

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Definitely thought that Jansen and Martin were more likely to get dealt this offseason. Trading Sale, especially for a young player with so much upside, felt like too much to hope for.
I couldn't see a path to moving Jansen or Martin unless the team had zero desire in trying to compete next season. In my eyes creating two holes at the back end of the BP with an unsettled rotation was waiving a white flag before the start of ST.
 

grepal

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How many people in this thread imagined the Sale trade? I don't know, and I am genuinely curious.
Not specifically but I was advocating Sale and money for a second baseman or big right handed outfielder. That was predicated by the need to sign two stud pitchers.
 

GPO Man

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If they bring in a front-line starter like Montgomery or Snell, now this team gets pretty interesting. Not sure that’s the direction Craig is going, but nothing would surprise me from him. I can see him parting with one of the big three to get a big fish.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Credit to @Big Papi's Mango Salsa for floating Grissom’s name a few times and for taking the trade Sale at all costs approach.
Thanks - and I’m kind of shocked Breslow was able to get Grissom for Sale. But pitching is stupid expensive right now.

I dunno if this means I should suggest more stuff or quit while I’m ahead. Hahaha.

In all seriousness, if Breslow does literally nothing else this year, swapping in Giolito on a one year for Sale AND landing 6 years of Vaughn Grissom for a net cost of $10m is a really nice little turn of business and for me makes this a B/B- off season as is.


The 2024-2030 Red Sox improved nicely the last two days.

Grissom really helps this team in a ton of ways. Most of the reports I’ve read on him (credit to others for posting) state he probably can’t stick at SS (which the numbers back up) but seem pretty bullish on him being able to adequately handle 2nd.

I also think his offensive profile fits the team really nicely. He doesn’t strike out, walks at a really good clip, hits for pretty good “gap” power (.516 slugging in AA and .501 in AAA) and has consistently been an above 130 wRC+ guy in the upper minors. He really strikes me as a Pedroia lite comp, and I mean that in a great way.

Duran - LF
Grissom - 2b
Devers - 3b
Casas - 1b
Story - SS
Yoshida - DH
Abreu - RF
Rafaela - CF
Wong - C

Bench of O’Neill, Refsnyder, Reyes, McGuire and sign a Brian Anderson type (or anyone capable of handling 3b and ostensibly 1b) and I feel pretty good about that, especially for the long term.

I like it even more if you can sign Hernandez for LF, then trade Mayer, Duran and Yorke for “Framber Cease.” But more likely just on its own merits, the 2024-2030 team is much better swapping Gio in for Sale and fixing 2b for 6 years.

(I doubt Mayer will be ready before 2026 at this point since he’s coming off a shoulder injury and is probably looking at 2024 in AA and 2025 in AAA.)

If Mayer IS ready for 2025, having Grissom able to move to LF or a super utility role (2 days a week at 2b, 2 in LF, 1 at SS) is just fine.
 

YTF

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Thanks - and I’m kind of shocked Breslow was able to get Grissom for Sale. But pitching is stupid expensive right now.

I dunno if this means I should suggest more stuff or quit while I’m ahead. Hahaha.

In all seriousness, if Breslow does literally nothing else this year, swapping in Giolito on a one year for Sale AND landing 6 years of Vaughn Grissom for a net cost of $10m is a really nice little turn of business and for me makes this a B/B- off season as is.


The 2024-2030 Red Sox improved nicely the last two days.

Grissom really helps this team in a ton of ways. Most of the reports I’ve read on him (credit to others for posting) state he probably can’t stick at SS (which the numbers back up) but seem pretty bullish on him being able to adequately handle 2nd.

I also think his offensive profile fits the team really nicely. He doesn’t strike out, walks at a really good clip, hits for pretty good “gap” power (.516 slugging in AA and .501 in AAA) and has consistently been an above 130 wRC+ guy in the upper minors. He really strikes me as a Pedroia lite comp, and I mean that in a great way.

Duran - LF
Grissom - 2b
Devers - 3b
Casas - 1b
Story - SS
Yoshida - DH
Abreu - RF
Rafaela - CF
Wong - C

Bench of O’Neill, Refsnyder, Reyes, McGuire and sign a Brian Anderson type (or anyone capable of handling 3b and ostensibly 1b) and I feel pretty good about that, especially for the long term.

I like it even more if you can sign Hernandez for LF, then trade Mayer, Duran and Yorke for “Framber Cease.” But more likely just on its own merits, the 2024-2030 team is much better swapping Gio in for Sale and fixing 2b for 6 years.

(I doubt Mayer will be ready before 2026 at this point since he’s coming off a shoulder injury and is probably looking at 2024 in AA and 2025 in AAA.)

If Mayer IS ready for 2025, having Grissom able to move to LF or a super utility role (2 days a week at 2b, 2 in LF, 1 at SS) is just fine.
Your scenario puts 9 on the field, 4 on the bench and the addition of an Anderson type would make 14 position players.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Your scenario puts 9 on the field, 4 on the bench and the addition of an Anderson type would make 14 position players.
Huh? It puts 9 in the line up. Yoshida at DH and a pitcher in the field. Its been a long day, but I’ve looked three times now and don’t see anything wrong with the order from a “rules“ standpoint. But I could be miscounting (now 4 times).

26 man roster isn‘t 14 and 12 pretty reason able? (Genuine question).

If it’s 13 and 13, I think RR and O’Neill are redundant anyway, and I’d have zero problems getting rid of either, but since one was just acquired, then I‘d have no qualms getting rid of a 33 (I think) year old OF that is the short side of a platoon anyway, but I added him on here bc people seem to love him even though I think he’s not all that valuable to a bad team, and not really important at all if you have O’Neill on the roster - which I think has to be assumed.

I just didn‘t want to get bogged down discussing a 4/5 OF that will be here for one more year.
 

YTF

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Huh? It puts 9 in the line up. Yoshida at DH and a pitcher in the field. Its been a long day, but I’ve looked three times now and don’t see anything wrong with the order from a “rules“ standpoint. But I could be miscounting (now 4 times).

26 man roster isn‘t 14 and 12 pretty reason able? (Genuine question).

If it’s 13 and 13, I think RR and O’Neill are redundant anyway, and I’d have zero problems getting rid of either, but since one was just acquired, then I‘d have no qualms getting rid of a 33 (I think) year old OF that is the short side of a platoon anyway, but I added him on here bc people seem to love him even though I think he’s not all that valuable to a bad team, and not really important at all if you have O’Neill on the roster - which I think has to be assumed.

I just didn‘t want to get bogged down discussing a 4/5 OF that will be here for one more year.
It's perfectly fine, but a bit outside of the norm given the need for arms these days.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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It's perfectly fine, but a bit outside of the norm given the need for arms these days.
But the line up is correct, yeah? (That is what I didn’t get what you meant).

Honestly, I’d rather just deal RR for some low A prospect / PTBNL whatever and go 13/13 also, but I really didn’t want to get bogged down in that discussion. Though suffice it to say, I don’t think Rafaela will gain anything playing at AAA. At this point, I think the only way he “improves” is facing MLB pitching that forces him to improve.

Main point, I think that line up has a real chance to be pretty solid.

Obv the long term rotation at MLB, AAA and AA has serious issues, but I think that line up is a good medium to long term situation. Especially factoring in Anthony and Teel (and even more with Mayer if he is not dealt).
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Honestly, I’d rather just deal RR for some low A prospect / PTBNL whatever and go 13/13 also, but I really didn’t want to get bogged down in that discussion. Though suffice it to say, I don’t think Rafaela will gain anything playing at AAA. At this point, I think the only way he “improves” is facing MLB pitching that forces him to improve.
Feel like we should be able to get more for @Rovin Romine than that, no? :)
 

YTF

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But the line up is correct, yeah? (That is what I didn’t get what you meant).

Honestly, I’d rather just deal RR for some low A prospect / PTBNL whatever and go 13/13 also, but I really didn’t want to get bogged down in that discussion. Though suffice it to say, I don’t think Rafaela will gain anything playing at AAA. At this point, I think the only way he “improves” is facing MLB pitching that forces him to improve.

Main point, I think that line up has a real chance to be pretty solid.

Obv the long term rotation at MLB, AAA and AA has serious issues, but I think that line up is a good medium to long term situation. Especially factoring in Anthony and Teel (and even more with Mayer if he is not dealt).
I was merely pointing out that the addition of a BA type would put you at 14 position players which most teams have shied away from given the need for pitching. 13 is the max number of pitchers allowed, but you could opt for less and teams do on occasion. That's normally during short, defined periods of time when the team feels they can get through a short stint without the extra pitcher, usually depending on the team's scheduled days off.
 

6-5 Sadler

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If Breslow is looking more mid market for controllable starters I’d take a look at Brady Singer. Singer had a tough year last year but until 8/15 he was pretty good (2.2 fWAR, 34th out of qualified SP). Singer’s velocity was down last year but it really fell off in Aug/Sep as he suffered fatigue and then was shut down completely in Sep with a strained back.

I think he’s a good candidate for a reclamation project as he was a top prospect that just never really fully developed. He’s a sinker/slider/changeup guy - a combination Bailey worked with a lot in SF. His main problem is lack of a 3rd pitch. He barely throws his change - probably because it’s terrible with only 4 mph separation vs his sinker and a similar movement profile. If Bailey can turn that usable (or continue to develop a sweeper he tinkered with last year) and his velocity returns, he could be a very good starter.

Is he available? KC added starting pitching this winter so he might be expendable (plus they have to make room for the inevitable Greinke signing). He’s also a super two guy in his 2nd arb year so MLBTR estimates a $5.1M salary. KC might have better uses for that cash.

What would he cost? Hard to tell what KC would prioritize in a trade. Their minor league system is a mess and the big league team doesn’t project to be competitive this year (despite their FA additions). Duran is probably too much but he would look great smacking hits into the gaps in KC and they have a need there. Maybe Yorke if they’re looking for the future? Combination of bullpen help and lower level prospects? Valdez/Abreu seem redundant with what they have.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Royals could use some relief help. Wonder if something like Martin or Jansen and a guy like Meidroth (or Hamilton / Valdez) for Singer makes any sense? BTV hates it from the Royals POV. But feel like finding a team that needs a closer but is up against their payroll limit may be a way for the Sox to send a subsidized reliever to get some help.

(If not the Royals, maybe there’s another potential match here. SD could use relief help and fits the bill of a team that may be up against their limit, but don’t seem to have any expendable SP at this point..)
 

buckner's_ankles

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Cotillo's new article is full of good stuff: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/12/with-chris-sale-traded-whats-next-for-red-sox-more-subtraction-possibly.html?utm_campaign=masslivesports&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Highlights include:

"...one obvious trade candidate is closer Kenley Jansen, who is owed $16 million in the final year of his two-year, $32 million contract in 2024. There are some in the organization who believe the loss of Jansen, who saved 29 games in 2023, could be easily remedied."

"The industry does not view the Red Sox as frontrunners to sign either Montgomery or Snell, though, meaning cheaper options like Clevinger, Lorenzon, Paxton or Ryu might be better fits..."
 

simplicio

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Singer's an interesting idea, but I'd want to see his medicals, that velocity dip across the full season is pretty concerning.
 

buckner's_ankles

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Looking over the teams that are rumored to be going after Hader: Yankees, Dodgers, Rangers (and maybe the Phillies)

The teams that miss out on him might be destinations for Jansen. It doesn't seem like Dodger fans are excited to bring back Kenley, and LA might continue to stick with an approach that doesn't rely upon a single traditional closer. We already got Fitts from NY, so it's tough to envision us getting another young pitcher from them.

What would we have to staple to Jansen in order to pry Brock Porter from the Rangers? or Mick Abel from the Phillies?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jansen to the Phillies for Taijuan Walker is a salary neutral deal for this season. Doesn’t seem terribly exciting or impactful, though. Ultimately, though, seems like the goal is to dump Jansen (or Martin?) for as much salary relief as possible in order to sign someone else…so I’m not sure they can wait on Hader and risk losing whomever they are after. Seems potentially easier to move one of these guys to a team that isn’t in on Hader- of course, the challenge there is that those teams are likely not able to take on as much of the contract which is the entire point.

Is there a reason the Sox can’t sign the SP they want now and then clear payroll later?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is there a reason the Sox can’t sign the SP they want now and then clear payroll later?
Of course not. The only numbers that matter for the luxury tax or actual payroll is who was on their roster between Opening Day and the end of the season. Not a dime is spent before then.

I think the talk about wanting to pare salary before adding salary is likely coming from agents trying to leverage other teams ("the Sox want my guy but you've got time to make a better offer while they look in the couch cushions"). I have a hard time buying that the Red Sox are actively telling players to wait them out while they do other things, whether that's cutting payroll or just talking to other players in the meantime.
 

buckner's_ankles

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Breslow says that a goal is "to acquire controllable, young starting pitching." That leaves me thinking that the more likely scenario for the remainder of this offseason involves Jansen and/or Martin being traded for SP prospects who might be ready to help in 2025 and beyond. If they're acquiring more SP for 2024, I'd expect them to be 1-2 year "prove yourself" contracts (like the one that Montas just signed with the Reds, but maybe cheaper).
 

simplicio

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Poking around some more at the 1B backup hole, my preference is still a Turner reunion at DH, but if the Teoscar rumors are true I think that means Yoshida filling the DH slot and we're out on Turner, so we'd need to plug the 1B gap with a pure bench guy.

BPMS mentioned Brian Anderson above, but I don't see the fit there; he only has one career start at 1B in 2020 and he's not good offensively. I'd rather just bring back Bobby D (and I really really really don't want to bring back Bobby D).

Someone who might make sense as a target is Donovan Solano. He's 36, he's slow, he's quite bad defensively, which is to say he might consider a utility/bench contract; he only made $2m for the Twins this year.

As an upside, he has real chops as a hitter; his 26.8 LD% would be up there with Refsnyder as the best of the regulars on this year's team, and he has no real split. He doesn't have the power to hit more than a few HR, but he sprays the ball to all fields,and he's ridden that profile to be an average or above hitter the last 5 years (116 WRC+ this year, the same as we got from Duvall and slightly better than Turner). Defensively, as stated he's bad and there's no getting around that, but he also has experience all around the infield and can cover 1B, 2B and 3B, making it easy to get that bat into the lineup or PH, and I don't think you're ever sad to have him take an AB.
 

chawson

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With Jansen rumors swirling a bit and some floating a Dodgers reunion, I wonder if they'd be willing to give up Dustin May.

He's got two arb years left before FA and reportedly won't pitch in 2024, but he could be an interesting gamble for 2025, especially in the pitching academy. His future in the Dodgers rotation would seem imperiled by recent moves.
 

Yaz4Ever

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With Jansen rumors swirling a bit and some floating a Dodgers reunion, I wonder if they'd be willing to give up Dustin May.

He's got two arb years left before FA and reportedly won't pitch in 2024, but he could be an interesting gamble for 2025, especially in the pitching academy. His future in the Dodgers rotation would seem imperiled by recent moves.
I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on a year of May in '25, but I'd hope for more than just him for Jansen. What else, I'm not sure.
 

nvalvo

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Well, I wouldn’t have guessed that Sale had the kind of trade value he proved to, but how much do we think Kenley has? One year of a good 37-year-old closer at retail prices is a touch underwater on BTV, but closers seem like the kinds of players their methodology underrates.

It doesn’t sound (if the rumors are true about clearing payroll for another move) that we are looking to subsidize him. Are there any recent comparable trades?
 

chrisfont9

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Well, I wouldn’t have guessed that Sale had the kind of trade value he proved to, but how much do we think Kenley has? One year of a good 37-year-old closer at retail prices is a touch underwater on BTV, but closers seem like the kinds of players their methodology underrates.

It doesn’t sound (if the rumors are true about clearing payroll for another move) that we are looking to subsidize him. Are there any recent comparable trades?
Kimbrel was traded in the last year of his contract to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock, in 2022. That's about as close a comp as you'll probably get.
 

SouthernBoSox

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I wouldn't expect much, of anything, for Kenley Jansen. I think they are probably looking for a decent AA/AAA starting arm, as that remains an organizational weakness. Similar to Fitts.
 

pjheff

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I wouldn't expect much, of anything, for Kenley Jansen. I think they are probably looking for a decent AA/AAA starting arm, as that remains an organizational weakness. Similar to Fitts.
I think the expectation primarily would be to liberate salary to be spent elsewhere, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Breslow pay a healthy chunk of the contract if it brings a better return (a la Sale).