My dumb idea about the Pats trading down

[SMU_Sox]

Couple other notes: Alijah Vera Tucker is a guard. He doesn’t have the length or athleticism to play there full time. When he faced off against the one good speed threat, Thibbideaux, he was destroyed to the tune of 3+ sacks and other pressures.

I am not sure 15 is past the tipping point for talent or not. To me once you get past: the three OTs, Surtain and Horn, and the 4 QBs, and Pitts, Chase, and Waddle you’re in the next tier of talent.I am about 8 guys away from posting my top 150.

Yeah. He’s also more physically dominant than basically everyone. Dude’s a unicorn.

100%. He’s number 2 on my board as a wide receiver year 1-2 and hopefully a TE/WR/Weapon year 3. He can play out wide and beat press. He also has the biggest wingspan of any TE/WR since... I can’t remember how long but it’s over a decade. It might be ever. He sinks into his breaks like a slot receiver I mean the guy is fucking nuts.

 

[YTF]

Statement of fact: the Pats have too many draft picks; they can't use all their picks and expect them all to make the roster.

Therefore, they can do one of two things with their excess picks: use them to trade up / maneuver around the board, or punt them to 2022 and beyond.

I expect that we'll see a combination of both.

If they do not trade up for a QB, then I could see a situation where they trade down a few slots, pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder, and draft a OL like Darrisaw, or possibly a CB, although I expect both Horn and Surtain to be gone by 15.

Either way it is going to be a super interesting night.

Given the flurry of activity the last two weeks, I see what you're saying as far as there not being room on the roster for for everyone. So with that in mind I'm guessing that if they trade down and pick up another 2nd or 3rd there is going to have to be a package or packages of excess picks shipped out in exchange for something else. Perhaps they take a page out of Miami's book and trade down a few spots, and use any additional picks that they can secure to perhaps enhance whatever they can offer to trade up higher than 15.

 

[nighthob]

Pitts running that fast is good news for the Pats IMO - it seals his fate as a top-7 pick and therefore increases the chances of a QB falling into the range where the Pats can trade.

Yeah, if I'm the Falcons I grab him at 4 as he looks like a one man wrecking crew in the receiving game. The Bengals like staying put, and would probably go for Sewell. Which would leave two QBs on the board with the Dolphins looking for a receiver at #6.

 

[tims4wins]

Given the flurry of activity the last two weeks, I see what you're saying as far as there not being room on the roster for for everyone. So with that in mind I'm guessing that if they trade down and pick up another 2nd or 3rd there is going to have to be a package or packages of excess picks shipped out in exchange for something else. Perhaps they take a page out of Miami's book and trade down a few spots, and use any additional picks that they can secure to perhaps enhance whatever they can offer to trade up higher than 15.

Agreed, if they add a pick it’s just another pick they need to get rid of (in total).

Yeah, if I'm the Falcons I grab him at 4 as he looks like a one man wrecking crew in the receiving game. The Bengals like staying put, and would probably go for Sewell. Which would leave two QBs on the board with the Dolphins looking for a receiver at #6.

Completely agree. Hoping the QBs off the board are Lawrence, Wilson, and Mac. That would be a really good outcome for the Pats.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

For sure. I wouldn’t trade out until I see how the top 14 shakes out, but it’s possible all of the QBs, all of the top WRs, Pitts, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and Surtain are gone. If that’s the case, you’re staring down a bunch of tier 2 players that aren’t amazing value at mid round 1.

I've linked to this site before noting how their aggregating of all the mocks shows the most common Pat pick at 15 to be Pitts (Jones is second most common).

But here I'm linking to their aggregated big board.

Here's their top 15. (Jones falls just outside at 17). Again, this is not their top 15, but their aggregation of a shit-ton of mocks.

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Fields
5. Chase
6. Pitts
7. Lance
8. Smith
9. Surtain
10. Waddle
11. Slater
12. Parsons
13. Farley
14. Darrisaw
15. Horn

Assuming Jones goes in the top 15 somewhere, that means at least two of these 15 will be available. I've also seen both Paye (listed at 16) and Vera-Tucker (listed at 18) go above 15 in a few reputable mocks. I don't think I've seen anyone listed beyond that in any mock at 15 or higher. So perhaps it is safe to say there are 18 players in the upper tier. But it seems like the bottom 6 of those seem to be pretty clearly in a tier below the top 12, with the exception of Jones, which is likely driven by being a QB.

So would people be happy with anyone in that 13-18 tier?

I would obviously be more happy with some than others, for instance I really want Horn or Surtain, but I definitely would be happy with those players. I've also seen Moehrig mocked in the top 15. What do people think about him at a position of need (S) in the near future?

 

[BigSoxFan]

I would obviously be more happy with some than others, for instance I really want Horn or Surtain, but I definitely would be happy with those players. I've also seen Moehrig mocked in the top 15. What do people think about him at a position of need (S) in the near future?

I like him but not at 15. Will be far more interesting guys available, IMO. I would be ecstatic with Horn or Surtain but think that there’s no chance Surtain gets past Dallas at #10. Horn is possible. Would be funny if starting corners are JayCee and JC Jackson.