Nathan Eovaldi: What Have We Here?

[jon abbey]

NY's new #4 starter is a bit of an enigma so far, so I thought he deserved his own thread. Here's one interesting bit of info I learned tonight:
 
"Last season, Eovaldi finished in the top 20% of starting pitchers in strike rate. That despite throwing so hard, and that despite getting limited help from Jarrod Saltalamacchia. According to Baseball Prospectus, Saltalamacchia cost Eovaldi 36 strikes, and about five runs, making it one of the worst framing batteries in the league. That’s not going to happen with Brian McCann."
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marlins-exchange-nathan-eovaldi-for-depth/
 
Other good info in that piece too, definitely worth clicking on. 

 

[jon abbey]

Eovaldi had the second largest difference between ERA and FIP in MLB (behind Buchholz), 4.37 ERA and 3.37 FIP:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

 

[jon abbey]

I don't like to post in Sox game threads, but to answer some discussion about Eovaldi vs. Joe Kelly (!) there earlier tonight:

Eovaldi has really turned it on since getting hammered in his return to MIA on June 16. Since then, 9 starts, 53.1 50 17 17 16 38, 2.87 ERA, .612 OPS allowed. He has some kind of combo splitter/cutter that's made the difference for him, also he never allows SBs (only 11 in his entire career). 

 

[rembrat]

You're not going to like this but SSS.

 

[rembrat]

I mean during 9 game stretch you point out his hits are still up there and his strikeouts are still well below where they should be for a guy with a 99 mph fastball. So, did anything really change?

 

[jon abbey]

You're not going to like this but SSS.

 
Well, two months isn't nothing. I'm not saying he's Cy Young but even Joe Kelly's mom would take Eovaldi at this point. 

 

[jon abbey]

I mean during 9 game stretch you point out his hits are still up there and his strikeouts are still well below where they should be for a guy with a 99 mph fastball. So, did anything really change?

 
His hits allowed are actually way down from before that and he keeps NY in every single game, no more than 3 ERs allowed since that MIA disaster. He's still a work in progress, but he seems to be moving in the right direction. 

 

[terrynever]

Eovaldi actually leads the Yankees in inning pitched with 136. And he ranks just 29th in this category among AL starters. CC is right behind with 135 innings. Pineda is at 118 and probably won't return from rehab for another week. Tanaka is at 108 innings.
 
The injuries to Tanaka and Pineda have been beneficial in terms of innings pitched as the team heads into the final six weeks of the pennant race. Girardi using a sixth starter occasionally has been a positive attempt to rest his starters.
 
Toronto has three starters among the top 8 in innings pitched -- Price, Dickey and Buerhle.
 
On the flip side, NYY has two relievers among top six in appearances -- Betances and Wilson.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/sort/thirdInnings

 

[jon abbey]

Insane stat: Eovaldi threw 39 pitches of 99 or higher all season before yesterday. Yesterday alone he threw 40.

 

[terrynever]

Not sure if the Yankees want max effort out of him on that many pitches per game. On the other hand, Eovaldi is from Nolan Ryan's hometown of Alvin, Texas. Must be something in the water down there.

 

[jon abbey]

It seemed to be pretty effortless, he also had a career high pitch count with 120 (and a career high in number of strikes with 83) and threw 101 on the 120th pitch (a weak groundout). 

 

[jon abbey]

The results keep getting better, eight scoreless tonight and hitting 100 twice in a row on his 106th/107th pitches of the game. The pure velocity is amazing from a SP as you can see from this tweet:

https://twitter.com/darenw/status/635987044435496960

 

[E5 Yaz]

The great unanswered question is how he will do in a postseason atmosphere -- after all, he could Kershaw out there -- but you have to love what you see. 

 

[jon abbey]

Eovaldi makes Keith Law's list of 'most sustainable 2015 breakthrough seasons', he says: 
 
"Many players have had breakthrough seasons in 2015, but these are the nine breakouts I believe are most sustainable into future seasons. I picked four starting pitchers and five position players."
 
It's an impressive list, Chris Archer, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Eovaldi, Bryce Harper, Gregory Polanco, Xander Bogaerts, Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford. Here's the Eovaldi paragraph since it's Insider-only:

"Eovaldi's breakthrough doesn't go all the way back to Opening Day, but he's visibly different now than he was when the Yankees first acquired him. How? He now has a third pitch -- the splitter -- that he lacked when he was with the Dodgers and Marlins. Eovaldi was always blessed with a huge arm, but the lack of deception in his delivery and absence of a change or split meant lefties killed him, and even right-handers made more contact than they should have. Enter the splitter, which has been the most effective in baseball per FanGraphs' pitch values (although they misclassify it as a changeup; Pitch F/X correctly calls it a split). Eovaldi has thrown 350 of them, and hitters have swung and missed at 62, more than twice the rate at which hitters are putting it in play for hits. The 13-2 won-lost record means nothing, but the improvement he has shown over the past two-plus months, missing more bats and letting fewer hitters square up his fastball, is real."

http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=4297

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I hated it when the Yankees acquired Eovaldi.  They didn't trade any high ceiling players for Eovaldi and that's why I felt the Yankees won the deal.  As usual, the Marlins were dumb as bricks.  Prado is a good player but not exceptional, and Phelps has average stuff.  Meanwhile, Eovaldi has elite stuff, just needs to develop his secondary pitches, which he seems to be doing.  Cashman made an excellent trade here.  I wish the Red Sox jumped in and acquired Eovaldi but Cherington was probably too busy calculating Justin Masterson's expected 2015 WAR.  

 

[billy ashley]

He certainly looks like an excellent mid rotation starter. With his raw stuff, it's shocking he doesn't miss more bats, but at the least you guys got a guy who should give you a lot of quality innings and his upside's clearly higher than that.