EDIT to update the scenarios.
TLDR: as long as we beat the Bulls, preferably by a lot, we're in decent shape. If we're not going to beat the Bulls by at least 23, then we want Toronto to beat Brooklyn; if we are going to beat them by at least 23, then we want Brooklyn to win (by 14 or less), as that could let us miraculously win the group. Either way, we want Charlotte to win in NYC, Atlanta to win in Cleveland, and/or Milwaukee to win at Miami, in that order of priority, as that helps our fallback scenarios if things in our own group don't go perfectly for us.
So the situation with our tournament group (East Group C), going into the last match day this coming Tuesday, is as follows:
- Firstly we need to beat the Bulls, at home. Preferably, we need to demolish the Bulls; if we beat them by at least 23, it keeps alive the chance to win the group. But even a beatdown of lesser proportions helps our case.
- Secondly, we want the Nets to beat Toronto. That would put them up to 3-1, creating a 3-way tie at the top, where we beat Brooklyn, Brooklyn beat Orlando, and Orlando beat us. Then it goes to point differential: we're starting at 0, Orlando is in the clubhouse at +22 after we shat the bed in the 4th tonight, and Brooklyn would go into their game at +8. So we would need to overtake Orlando (win by at least 23), and not be overtaken by Brooklyn, either.
- If we beat Chicago and the Nets lose to Toronto, then it's decided on head-to-head between us and Orlando (each at 3-1, with Brooklyn at 2-2), so Orlando finishes 1st and we finish 2nd. That would suit us OK, assuming we're not going to beat Chicago by 23 or more; it means we go to the runner-up standings at 3-1.
- If we lose to Chicago AND the Nets lose to Toronto, then all 3 of us are 2-2, and we win that 3-way tiebreaker on the basis of head-to-head sweep. But though we'd be the group runner-up, we could only possibly advance if the other two groups also had runners-up at 2-2. Which, somehow, is still possible.
- If we're second in the group, we have to be better than the runners-up in the other 2 East groups. If we finish at 3-1, then we want scenarios where they have 3-way ties at 2-2. But if we do well against the Bulls, then we probably like our chances against any other 3-1 runner-up, other than if Miami beats Milwaukee.
- in Group A, Indy (4-0) wins, the group runner-up will be Cleveland (2-1) if they beat Atlanta (1-2) at home on Tuesday. Cleveland is currently at +6, so given that we're at +0 right now, we would need to beat Chicago by at least 7 more than they beat Atlanta by, in order to end up ranked ahead of them. If Atlanta wins at Cleveland, it's a 3-way tie for second (at 2-2) between them and Philly, which would go to point differential (and eliminate all of them, if any other group's runner-up is 3-1).
- Group B is fun, and will mostly turn on the Milwaukee (3-0) @ Miami (2-1) matchup on Tuesday, but is also affected by Charlotte (1-2) @ NYK (2-1). If Miami wins and the Knicks win, it goes to point differential, likely won by Milwaukee with NYK runner-up. If Miami and Charlotte win, then Miami wins the group and Milwaukee is runner-up, and Boston would need to win and have a better point differential than the Bucks (Currently +39, so we'd need to win big and have them lose big). Given that hurdle, we really want Milwaukee to beat Miami, as a Miami win probably sends both teams through.
- If Milwaukee wins, they advance, and Group B runner-up would be the Knicks if they beat the Hornets. The Knicks are at +18 right now, which would make it very difficult for Boston to catch them, so we really want Charlotte to win. But if Charlotte beats New York, there'd be a 3-way tie at 2-2 between them and Miami, which would go to point differential.
- If the following 5 things all happen, then all 3 group runners-up in the East finish at 2-2 (each of them winning a 3-way tie, us on head-to-head, the others on point differential), and it becomes point differential mayhem to decide the East wildcard: CHI beats BOS, TOR beats BKN, ATL beats CLE, MIL beats MIA, and CHA beats NYK. Which would at least be darkly amusing. That's the chaos option for fans of west coast teams to root for.
Hope that helps everyone. Go Hawks, go Bucks, and above all go Hornets.