NBA offseason thread

[Devizier]

Thought it was worth starting, since offseason speculation was creeping into the playoff thread.
 
 

The Cavs roster and cap situation is going to be a disaster in 2 years.

 
The Cavaliers are going to be an interesting case.
 
Kevin Love is obviously the big question mark. I think he opts-in this offseason, because the payout for next year is potentially much greater. But if that happens, there's a distinct possibility that the Cavaliers trade him. I can't imagine a more likely destination than the Lakers, given their cap space. Assuming a modest increase in the salary cap, they could absorb Love's contract straight up, offering their draft pick as enticement. If the Lakers balk, I don't see anything else that they can offer; pretty much every player under contract is value-neutral at best. I suppose Danny Ainge could come calling, but it will take a lot of draft picks to make it so. Worth keeping an eye on. 
 
Unless someone goes crazy, I see the Cavaliers matching any offer on Thompson. I've been pretty damned impressed with his playoff performance. Would make it easy for the Cavaliers to move Love except for Varejao, who can't be counted on for anything anymore.
 
Every other non-Lebron guy the Cavaliers have is likely to opt out or retire. They're going to have a lot of damn holes to fill this offseason. That said, even if they ran out D-leaguers at every one of those positions, they'd still crush the Celtics... sigh.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Thompson will likely be maxed for 5 years by Cleveland. He turned down 4/$52m from the Cavs last summer, he's proven his worth, is close to LeBron, and shares LeBron's agent. A max this summer will be significantly short of the max moving forward with the increased salary cap so this seems like a no-brainer on both sides. Love is finished in Cleveland, if I had to guess his agent has a deal lined up with LA (or Boston?) prior to opting in so he gets paid next summer. The backup plan would be to simply sign as a FA however that would cost Love a ton of money over the course of his contract which is why the opt-in/trade makes the most sense for all involved.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Could max players like Love sign one-year deals so they could sign a long-term max deal under the higher cap in 2016?

 

[jon abbey]

Love needs a defensive 5 next to him if his team hopes to win games, not sure how great a fit he would be with LA/Okafor (presumably). 

 

[Tony C]

He'd actually be a nice fit on Minnesota,
 
But agree he wont' be back with the Cavs. I think the Lakers are the match -- agree that he and Okafor are not a perfect pair, but I'm not sure the perfect fit exists.

 

[nighthob]

Thought it was worth starting, since offseason speculation was creeping into the playoff thread.
 
 
 
The Cavaliers are going to be an interesting case.
 
Kevin Love is obviously the big question mark. I think he opts-in this offseason, because the payout for next year is potentially much greater. But if that happens, there's a distinct possibility that the Cavaliers trade him. I can't imagine a more likely destination than the Lakers, given their cap space. Assuming a modest increase in the salary cap, they could absorb Love's contract straight up, offering their draft pick as enticement. If the Lakers balk, I don't see anything else that they can offer; pretty much every player under contract is value-neutral at best. I suppose Danny Ainge could come calling, but it will take a lot of draft picks to make it so. Worth keeping an eye on. 
 
Unless someone goes crazy, I see the Cavaliers matching any offer on Thompson. I've been pretty damned impressed with his playoff performance. Would make it easy for the Cavaliers to move Love except for Varejao, who can't be counted on for anything anymore.
 
Every other non-Lebron guy the Cavaliers have is likely to opt out or retire. They're going to have a lot of damn holes to fill this offseason. That said, even if they ran out D-leaguers at every one of those positions, they'd still crush the Celtics... sigh.

 
I actually agree that he waits the extra year to get the new super max next summer. I also expect the Cavs to send him to New York on draft night once he does opt in. 

 

[soxhop411]

@sheridanhoops: An NBA big shot who I know and trust just told me a coach is getting fired in next couple days, and nobody sees it coming.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

@sheridanhoops: An NBA big shot who I know and trust just told me a coach is getting fired in next couple days, and nobody sees it coming.

I'll take a crack at it.

1. Carlisle
2. Doc
3. Spoelstra

 

[mcpickl]

Thought it was worth starting, since offseason speculation was creeping into the playoff thread.
 
 
 
The Cavaliers are going to be an interesting case.
 
Kevin Love is obviously the big question mark. I think he opts-in this offseason, because the payout for next year is potentially much greater. But if that happens, there's a distinct possibility that the Cavaliers trade him. I can't imagine a more likely destination than the Lakers, given their cap space. Assuming a modest increase in the salary cap, they could absorb Love's contract straight up, offering their draft pick as enticement. If the Lakers balk, I don't see anything else that they can offer; pretty much every player under contract is value-neutral at best. I suppose Danny Ainge could come calling, but it will take a lot of draft picks to make it so. Worth keeping an eye on. 
 
Unless someone goes crazy, I see the Cavaliers matching any offer on Thompson. I've been pretty damned impressed with his playoff performance. Would make it easy for the Cavaliers to move Love except for Varejao, who can't be counted on for anything anymore.
 
Every other non-Lebron guy the Cavaliers have is likely to opt out or retire. They're going to have a lot of damn holes to fill this offseason. That said, even if they ran out D-leaguers at every one of those positions, they'd still crush the Celtics... sigh.

There's nothing in this for the Lakers or Kevin Love.
 
If the Lakers want him on a one year deal, and Love wants a one year deal(would surely be two years with opt out after one in this scenario), he can just sign with the Lakers for a bigger salary than his opt-in salary would be. No reason to trade for him in this case. If he wants to lock in a five year max deal this summer, that could be a sign and trade to LA.
 
Either way, I'd be surprised if Love doesn't end up with the Lakers this summer.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Budenholzer seems too obvious.

Carlisle and Rivers were my first two thoughts too. Derek Fisher and Randy Wittman round out my list.

Wittman would be the obvious #1 in my book but Sheridan said it was a firing that nobody saw coming. I almost expect Wittman to get the ax so to me he wouldn't qualify.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Now the rumors all seem to be Thibodeau, but is that a shocker? Seems like that has been rumored for a while

Geez, if this is all Sheridan has it will be pretty pathetic since everyone and their mother expects the Bulls to fire him. The only question is how spiteful Forman will be by waiting until the Pelicans and Magic jobs are taken.

 

[Devizier]

There's nothing in this for the Lakers or Kevin Love.
 
If the Lakers want him on a one year deal, and Love wants a one year deal(would surely be two years with opt out after one in this scenario), he can just sign with the Lakers for a bigger salary than his opt-in salary would be. No reason to trade for him in this case. If he wants to lock in a five year max deal this summer, that could be a sign and trade to LA.
 
Either way, I'd be surprised if Love doesn't end up with the Lakers this summer.

 
We've gotten into this discussion before, but I'm under the impression that maximum contracts are pegged to the salary cap at the time the contract is signed. If the prevailing assumption is that the salary cap is due for big increases this offseason and next, it makes a lot of sense for Love to wait out a year to increase his earnings.

 

[ALiveH]

If Love is a true max guy & trying to maximize his earnings, probably makes more sense for him to negotiate a player opt-out right before the big jump up in salary cap.  If he wants to win sometime in his prime the Lakers are a terrible situation.  Boston has more assets & better management & avoid the WC gauntlet.
 
Haven't heard other teams mentioned and seems like Cleveland is not a great fit & he's not happy there.

 

[Apisith]

I've heard Houston mentioned and we can create room for him. I wouldn't be in favour of doing it because our defense would be worse. Dwight at $23m/year is not long for the team. We will have room because Harden's deal is ridiculously cheap.

 

[Apisith]

If we move Ariza, we can create around $17m/year. Love is in that bracket.

I would assume every top free agent will be signing a one year deal to ready for the cap jump. Any tier 1 guys signing a max contract now without an opt-out would be stupid.

 

[Devizier]

 
I actually agree that he waits the extra year to get the new super max next summer. I also expect the Cavs to send him to New York on draft night once he does opt in. 

 
The Knicks make even more sense than the Lakers.
 
1) Dolan, Jackson, et al. have a huge boner for veterans
2) Leaked rumors that the Knicks want to move their draft pick
3) Actually makes the Knicks a competitive, if not contending, team
 
It probably comes down to Love, though. Anyone can see what a clusterfuck the Knicks are, and they moved some of their only decent players (and Love's current teammates) for nothing.
 
I suppose the Cavaliers might want some veteran help in place of Love, but I don't see a team in the league that would give it to them, unless you want to (generously) count Sullinger.

 

[Devizier]

If we move Ariza, we can create around $17m/year. Love is in that bracket.

I would assume every top free agent will be signing a one year deal to ready for the cap jump. Any tier 1 guys signing a max contract now without an opt-out would be stupid.

 
This is a fair point. I wonder if there are any CBA restrictions on opt-outs. I doubt there are.
 
Dunno who will take Ariza for a non-guaranteed contract or TPE, though.

 

[Devizier]

I would pay good money to see how bad a team with Love/Harden and no Howard would look on defense.

 
When Love-Anthony is looking like a better defensive pairing...

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Haven't seen many rumblings about Love to New York. Seems like the more frequent teams that come up are Boston and LA. 
 
http://www.celticsblog.com/2015/5/28/8676689/nba-free-agent-rumor-kevin-love-to-boston-a-real-legitimate

 

[Buster Olney the Lonely]

Now the rumors all seem to be Thibodeau, but is that a shocker? Seems like that has been rumored for a while

 
Just got an alert on my phone from the NBA app: "Bulls announce they have dismissed coach Tom Thibodeau."

 

[fairlee76]

Geez, if this is all Sheridan has it will be pretty pathetic since everyone and their mother expects the Bulls to fire him. The only question is how spiteful Forman will be by waiting until the Pelicans and Magic jobs are taken.

No shit.  That's a pathetic "scoop" given that even I could see it coming.

 

[nighthob]

There's nothing in this for the Lakers or Kevin Love.

There would be a five year super max deal in it for Love in the summer of '16. Put another way there's like $50 million in it for him to have Cleveland trade him to his preferred destination.

 

[Apisith]

I would pay good money to see how bad a team with Love/Harden and no Howard would look on defense.

Rockets were 6th in defensive rating with Howard missing for half a season. Yeah, Love is bad at D but he's cheaper than Dwight and we'll have room for one more max. I can see Morey swinging for this, but maybe a year from now instead of this summer.

 

[nighthob]

I think the thing people are missing is that the cap will jump some 50% next summer. Love may opt to forgo that 5/130-140 deal that he could sign next summer by working out a deal with the Cavs to trade him to his desired location and becoming a free agent in the summer of 2016 instead, but I'll be surprised if he does.

 

[mcpickl]

 
We've gotten into this discussion before, but I'm under the impression that maximum contracts are pegged to the salary cap at the time the contract is signed. If the prevailing assumption is that the salary cap is due for big increases this offseason and next, it makes a lot of sense for Love to wait out a year to increase his earnings.

This is correct.
 
But I was pointing out there's no reason for the Lakers to trade for Love.
 
If he wants to go there on a one year deal, he can sign with them for more money than he would make if he opted in to be traded.

 

[nighthob]

This is correct.
 
But I was pointing out there's no reason for the Lakers to trade for Love.
 
If he wants to go there on a one year deal, he can sign with them for more money than he would make if he opted in to be traded.

But a whole lot less money than if he picked up his option and got traded there.

 

[mcpickl]

There would be a five year super max deal in it for Love in the summer of '16. Put another way there's like $50 million in it for him to have Cleveland trade him to his preferred destination.

Why would he get an extra 50 million for being traded to LA, as opposed to signing a two year deal with an opt out after one, then signing his five year deal with LA next summer?

 

[nighthob]

Why would he get an extra 50 million for being traded to LA, as opposed to signing a two year deal with an opt out after one, then signing his five year deal with LA next summer?

Because LA wouldn't have his Bird rights in that scenario, so any deal he signed would be limited to four years and 5% raises. If he gets traded there and makes $1.5 million less next year, next summer he gets to sign the five year 30% max deal with 7.5% raises. That means his next contract would be in the realm of 5/140-5/150. So I suspect that his agent is already working the backchannels to make a trade happen.

 

[mcpickl]

Because LA wouldn't have his Bird rights in that scenario, so any deal he signed would be limited to four years and 5% raises. If he gets traded there and makes $1.5 million less next year, next summer he gets to sign the five year 30% max deal with 7.5% raises. That means his next contract would be in the realm of 5/140-5/150. So I suspect that his agent is already working the backchannels to make a trade happen.

I don't see that as making an extra 50 million if he goes via sign and trade. It assumes Love makes zero in the year after his deal expires, when he'd be 31. I view it as just having an insurance policy for the 2020-21 season. If I'm him I'd rather have that insurance policy, though a smaller one, for 2016-17.
 
Coming off a few injury issues, I'd much rather sign in LA for 2/41Mish with an opt out after one, then resign for four years at the max(with an opt out after three) than gamble on a 1/16.7M, hope nothing goes wrong, then sign for five years at the max(with an opt out after four). That would give him a shot to get back into the market at age 30 to lock in another mega-deal if he's healthy at that point. His total salaries whether he signs in LA this summer, or gets traded there, would only be approximately 2-3M more via trade through 2019-20(though structured differently). Then he'd have the 43ishM(assuming a 90M cap in 2016-17) insurance policy for 2020-21/
 
I'd prefer the insurance now coming off the injury instead of taking that big a gamble. I could be in the minority I suppose, could go the other way.
 
Would also help him to not have his new team give assets away to his old team to sign him. Though I;d concede most, probably all, players don't think that way.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Because LA wouldn't have his Bird rights in that scenario, so any deal he signed would be limited to four years and 5% raises. If he gets traded there and makes $1.5 million less next year, next summer he gets to sign the five year 30% max deal with 7.5% raises. That means his next contract would be in the realm of 5/140-5/150. So I suspect that his agent is already working the backchannels to make a trade happen.

Exactly. This was my premise for it benefitting both Love and the Cavs. Unless Love is fearful of his back limiting him next year he is not going to opt-out and lose all that money. If he does opt-out however that is a major major buyer beware.

 

[DJnVa]

I think the thing people are missing is that the cap will jump some 50% next summer.

 

That was discussed like 10 posts before yours.
 
People understand that.

 

[nighthob]

That was discussed like 10 posts before yours.
 
People understand that.

And then yet completely ignored it in the discussion. So maybe they really don't understand it so very well.

 

[nighthob]

He has an opt out after next year to take advantage of the new cap. I'm sure that next one will also contain a favourable opt-out year.

 

[nighthob]

Well, the cap projections, if I'm remembering them correctly, show a huge jump for the summer of 2016, and an increase for the summer of 2018, but a slight decrease for the summer between (again, if I'm remembering aright). So my expectation is that he'll have an opt out after two years next summer and then sign his last five year deal then. If this huge jump had come when he was still in his mid 20s, though, he would likely have gone the route you suggested (of constant, regular opt-outs).

 

[jon abbey]

I'll say again that I think it would be crazy for LeBron to try to maximize his salary when it means that his team has less money to pay his potential teammates. I've argued in the past that if I were him, I would seriously consider taking the mid-cap exemption and just play for whichever team I wanted to, regardless of their cap situation. A few million extra dollars are meaningless to him compared to the chance to win more titles and build up his legacy. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'll say again that I think it would be crazy for LeBron to try to maximize his salary when it means that his team has less money to pay his potential teammates. I've argued in the past that if I were him, I would seriously consider taking the mid-cap exemption and just play for whichever team I wanted to, regardless of their cap situation. A few million extra dollars are meaningless to him compared to the chance to win more titles and build up his legacy. 

It would be much more than a few dollars, it wouldn't be a meaningless amount, and it would be extremely foolish for LeBron to be advised to do this by his business team. LeBron and the other top players aren't joining forces with the PA for the purpose of making LESS money.

 

[jon abbey]

It would be much more than a few dollars, it wouldn't be a meaningless amount, and it would be extremely foolish for LeBron to be advised to do this by his business team. LeBron and the other top players aren't joining forces with the PA for the purpose of making LESS money.

 
I'm not talking about anyone else, just LeBron. In 2014, he made $72M total, $19M in salary and $53M in endorsements. If taking $10-$15M less in salary means he could get better teammates and avoid some wear and tear on his body, both helping his chances of winning another title and potentially extending his career, to me it's an easy decision.

(But this argument made more sense when he was figuring out where to go last offseason, he could have gone to the Clippers on the midcap, for instance.) 

 

[Devizier]

In Soviet Russia, Lebron pay YOU!
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1_-TlqdIvM

 

[The Social Chair]

 
I'm not talking about anyone else, just LeBron. In 2014, he made $72M total, $19M in salary and $53M in endorsements. If taking $10-$15M less in salary means he could get better teammates and avoid some wear and tear on his body, both helping his chances of winning another title and potentially extending his career, to me it's an easy decision.

(But this argument made more sense when he was figuring out where to go last offseason, he could have gone to the Clippers on the midcap, for instance.) 

 
This has a 0% chance of happening after the Clippers were sold and the new TV deal was signed. Lebron is going to be one of the players spearheading a more fair CBA in 2017.  

 

[mcpickl]

Quick question:

Not a cap expert but is there anything that would prevent LeBron from signing a max deal that includes a player opt out clause after every season? Wouldn't he be better off doing that, then opting out every summer, and signing a new max deal since the salary cap will be increasing by more than the 7.5% allowed by the CBA?

Yes.
 
You can only have an opt out clause for the last year of any contract signed.
 
He could have an opt out every summer, like he has this year, but could only sign a two year deal with an opt out after one year. Basically the same contract he signed last summer.

 

[mcpickl]

He has an opt out after next year to take advantage of the new cap. I'm sure that next one will also contain a favourable opt-out year.

Lebrons contract expires next summer, his opt out is this summer.
 
I assume he'll opt out now, the sports media will go bananas for a couple weeks about where will Lebron go next????, then he'll sign another two year max deal in Cleveland with that opt out for summer of 2016.

 

[Apisith]

If I remember LeBron's contract, he has an opt out after one year and two years. So I'm assuming he will not be exercising it this summer. He'll do it next summer when the cap jumps.

 

[Apisith]

Dwight also has a similar contract structure with the Rockets, he signed for 3+1. Next year will be his third year and I'm certain he'll be opting out, looking to sign a new max deal with Houston, but I hope Morey holds firm and offers him less because we need the cap room for another max contract.

 

[ALiveH]

Dwight seems to be aging in dog years.  He is a risky guy to give the max to at this point.
 
I've long been a believer that the stars who get to the point where their endorsement earnings dwarf their NBA salaries would be better served for legacy, happiness and maximizing their total earning potential by taking less salary so the team can stock a winner.  And yet, no one seems to ever do it, so maybe I'm just wrong on this one.

 

[jon abbey]

I've long been a believer that the stars who get to the point where their endorsement earnings dwarf their NBA salaries would be better served for legacy, happiness and maximizing their total earning potential by taking less salary so the team can stock a winner.  And yet, no one seems to ever do it, so maybe I'm just wrong on this one.

 
Well, Tim Duncan definitely did in his last few contracts, and even LBJ/Wade/Bosh took a bit less than they could have gotten going to different teams so that they could play together, but I agree that I would expect it to happen a bit more. Maybe Paul Pierce did it too when he went to Washington for the mid-cap? 

 

[Nick Kaufman]

The Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry. I vaguely remember him from when he was coaching Toronto and I think he wasn't the best in game manager, but supposedly this year, he's the brains behind the offensive renaissance in Golden State.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

The Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry. I vaguely remember him from when he was coaching Toronto and I think he wasn't the best in game manager, but supposedly this year, he's the brains behind the offensive renaissance in Golden State.

Could have had JVG if they wanted to pony up the cash but it looks like they went the cheap route here. Pels fans are pretty split on this and I don't blame them.

 

[Swedgin]

The Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry. I vaguely remember him from when he was coaching Toronto and I think he wasn't the best in game manager, but supposedly this year, he's the brains behind the offensive renaissance in Golden State.

He never coached the Raps.   He was the coach in Phoenix when Kerr was the GM after the Terry Porter experiment failed.

 

[luckiestman]

Could have had JVG if they wanted to pony up the cash but it looks like they went the cheap route here. Pels fans are pretty split on this and I don't blame them.

 
 
What is so good about JVG? I would tune his bullshit out if I was a player. 

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Pelicans hired Alvin Gentry. I vaguely remember him from when he was coaching Toronto and I think he wasn't the best in game manager, but supposedly this year, he's the brains behind the offensive renaissance in Golden State.

Do "Brains" = Run high pick and pops with Curry while spacing floor with weak side shooters? Sometimes landing in the right spot can do wonders for a coaches reputation.

Not questioning Gentry's competence only questioning the brilliance needed for the Warriors to run a killer offense.

Edit: I've always maintained same stance with Tex Winter. There's a reason he was a crappy head coach when he had crappy players and then considered a genius for building offenses around Michael and later Kobe. Maybe it's the players?