NFL MVP

[DanoooME]

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Cam Newton is (undeservedly) winning MVP, and I'm pretty sure most of you are voting for Brady, but I wanted to see who everyone thought was the top 4 in order from the top candidates that most bring up: Newton, Palmer, Brady, Wilson. My vote goes as follows:

1. Palmer - Very close between the top 3, Palmer led the #1 scoring offense in the league for most of the year until Carolina passed them this week, 3rd in QB rating, 1st in QBR, 1st in ANY/A. He's the key to their offense.

2. Wilson - Carried this team on his back offensively the second half of the year with the team losing Lynch, Graham and Rawls. Led the league in QB rating, 4th in QBR, 3rd in ANY/A. 2nd to Cam in rushing yards by a QB. If he was more consistent in the first half of the year, he'd be the winner

3. Brady - The guy has excellent numbers with missing a lot of offensive weapons. 10th in QBR, 4th in QB rating, 4th in ANY/A. The line falling apart hasn't helped him, but the Pats still have the most dangerous offense in the AFC.

4. Newton - Carolina did end up leading the league in scoring offense, but his individual numbers are clearly a step below the rest. 8th in QB rating, 9th in QBR, 6th in ANY/A. The really abysmal number is completion percentage, where he's 28th (the others are 3rd -Wilson, 12th-Brady, 15th-Palmer)

The major case for Newton seems to be 15-1 and maybe the fact that they led the league in scoring (barely). I think any of the other 3 is more qualified to win. I juggled the top 3 a couple of times and I'll bet if you asked me tomorrow, I'd pick someone else.

 

[AlNipper49]

1. It's amazing to see Carson Palmer here. A few years ago I would have bet even money on his career being over, or in that "Twilight Matt Hasselback" stage.
2. Brady will get more votes here not because we're a bunch of homers but because we'll accommodate for this OL disaster this year. That type of thing will not weight heavily
3. I think that you're discounting Newton's 15-1. Unfortunately that is the type of thing which will weigh strongly with the voters. /Clemens

 

[TheMoralBully]

It's really close between Brady and Palmer for me. Palmer led the league in DYAR, DVOA and QBR, but Brady put up better counting stats, same completion % with a worse supporting cast. I'd go Brady #1, but I wouldn't be upset with Palmer.

I have Wilson ahead of Cam, he hast just been far more efficient and has done it vs. superior competition. Wilson has been the MVP of the second half of the season, easily.

Cam's going to win, though, and that's fine really.

 

[johnmd20]

I'm not sure how Newton ended up negative in rushing in QBR but I'm not going to pretend to even remotely understand how QBR works. Newton's 600+ rushing yards, 10 rushing TD's, 99 QB rating, and 35 passing TD's on a team that is 15-1 more than warrants his winning.

I have Wilson 2nd,(an unbelievable season) Brady 3rd, and Palmer 4th. Amazingly, Tyrod Taylor had the same QB rating as Newton and was ahead of Stafford, Rodgers, Cutler, Ryan, Eli, Roeth, and Rivers. At the start of the season if you made that prediction, your account would have been banned with prejudice.

 

[jmm57]

Cam was 2nd in the NFL in both Pass and Rush TD (trailing the leader by 1 in each case) on a team with one of the worst set of skill position weapons in the league. Ted Ginn was their best WR. The 10 rushing TD and 600+ yds seem to be totally glossed over here. I believe rushing is figured into QBR, but QBR is pretty bad. I have no problem with Cam winning the MVP.

edit: or what johnmd20 said

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Cam Newton had seven games with a sub-80 passer rating. Seven. When you hand a guy MVP because his team win the most games, even though he was below average in nearly half those games, it doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[TheMoralBully]

Cam's low in most rate stats, DVOA has him at like 15. He's being punished for the schedule he played and a significant amount of his stats coming vs. really awful defenses. Wilson's season has just been much more impressive in my opinion.

 

[DJnVa]

Cam is going to win.

However, I feel like a good case could be made for Edelman, no? That's partially tongue-in-cheek, but still.

 

[troparra]

Cam has had an MVP caliber 2nd half, according to this:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14383908/why-cam-newton-surging-qbr

Since the start of Week 9, Newton is playing like an MVP candidate, and QBR has noticed. Only Russell Wilson -- recently anointed Bill Barnwell's second-half MVP -- has a higher QBR than Newton during that time (see chart). Accounting for the combination of Newton's efficiency (with QBR) and usage, no quarterback has been more valuable than Newton in the second half of the season, captured in a statistic called QB points above average.

edit: the article is from 12/17

 

[86spike]

Cam is going to win.

However, I feel like a good case could be made for Edelman, no? That's partially tongue-in-cheek, but still.

Jordi Nelson has Edelman beat.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

DYAR ranks for QBs:
1. Palmer 1,636
2. Brady 1,315
3. Dalton 1,088
4. Wilson, 1,070
...
16. Newton, 427

DVOA ranks for QBs:
1. Palmer, 34.8%
2. Dalton, 30.2%
3. Wilson, 22.6%
4. Roethlisberger, 22.4%
5. Brady, 20.6%
...
15. Newton, 2.2%

QBR ranks, which FO apparently puts some stock in:
(0. D. Amendola, 99.99)
1. Palmer, 82.1
2. Roethlisberger, 76.9
3. Brees, 75.5
4. Wilson, 74.9
5. Dalton, 73.1
...
9. Newton, 66.1
10. Rodgers, 64.9
11. Brady, 64.4

Passer Rating:
1. Wilson, 110.1
2. Dalton, 106.2
3. Palmer, 104.6
4. Brady, 102.2
...
8. Newton, 99.2

INT%:
1. Brady, 1.1%
2. Rodgers, 1.4%
2. McCown (CLE), 1.4%
4. A. Smith, 1.5%

I'd give the MVP to Luke Kuechly sooner than I would Cam Newton. Anyone who watched a Carolina game this year saw him as the one guy on the field who looked both faster and stronger than anyone else, with incredible instincts on where to go and game-changing playmaking ability. His partner LB Thomas Davis isn't far behind, and CB Josh Norman deserved his rep this year too. On offense, Greg Olsen had a gronkian year, 1104 yds / 7 TDs, and Newton had 4 highly capable WRs out there. So, yes, Newton scrambles more than any other QB (132 attempts to T. Taylor's 104 and Wilson's 103), but even when he does, Wilson, Rodgers and many others have higher rushing DVOAs. And his success at doing so is much more attributable to his line than his abilities.

Dalton and Roethlisberger get an incomplete from me for missing time due to injury. So, my vote:

1. Palmer
2. Wilson
3. Brady
4. Newton

edit: and as for an actual prediction, I think Palmer lost his shot to win it by losing to Seattle yesterday. Had he won, ESPN would have been all a-twitter debating him vs Cam. Right now, the tone is that of a coronation.

 

[pappymojo]

I am completely okay with Cam Newton winning this.

 

[DJnVa]

Jordi Nelson has Edelman beat.

Hey man, you gotta play in at least one game.

 

[Buck Showalter]

I am completely okay with Cam Newton winning this.

Agreed.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

The fact that Brady went 3-4 down the stretch probably (rightly) hurts his chances.

A lot of injuries and the O-line was a mess and without Brady they probably lose those 4 games by a lot more, but he's not infallible either. Did he even connect on one single long ball in those last 7 games? He sure did throw a lot of them.

 

[Jungleland]

Wow, had not realized Cam's rate stats were so mediocre - I haven't watched a ton of Carolina and his highlights make him appear unstoppable. Looking at the numbers, I think I'd give heavy consideration to Wilson. The complete reinvention of the Seattle offense in Lynch's (and Rawls') absence has been among the most impressive stories of the second half, and the video game numbers back it up.

I'd favor Palmer over Brady as well, though it's (probably) almost entirely the fault of the supporting casts. I agree with above that Brady's performance with the weakening team around him has been commendable but not close to good enough to not destroy his argument in a group this strong.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Cam may or may not be a worthy winner (I think he is), but how he performs in QBR, which is an abominable metric, shouldn't be used as any sort of evidence for that.

 

[pappymojo]

Leading the league in total touchdowns for a 15-1 team is very impressive.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

In looking this up, it appears that the AP MVP award and the Pro Football Writers Assn MVP award have been given to the same person every year since 2003. Amusingly, in 2003, the AP award was (rather famously) split between Peyton and McNair, while the less-well-known PFWA award went to... Jamal Lewis.

All split MVP awards between the two organizations (PFWA is only since 1975):

Year: AP recipient(s) / PFWA recipient
2003: Peyton Manning & Steve McNair (Split) / Jamal Lewis
2001: Kurt Warner / Marshall Faulk
1997: Brett Favre & Barry Sanders (Split) / Sanders (solo)
1990: Joe Montana / Randall Cunningham
1987: John Elway / Jerry Rice
1982: Mark Moseley / Dan Fouts
1978: Terry Bradshaw / Earl Campbell

 

[DJnVa]

How the eff did a kicker twin MVP?

EDIT: Found this on Grantland: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-year-the-nfl-went-insane-and-gave-a-kicker-the-mvp-award/

 

[NortheasternPJ]

To me it's between Wilson and Palmer. Palmer's had such a great year, start to finish he deserves it but Wilson absolutely carried the Seahawks to the playoffs and has been fantastic the second half.

1 - Wilson
2 - Palmer
3 - Newton
4 - Brady

 

[johnmd20]

Imagine if Ghost won MVP. That would be hilarious.

 

[j44thor]

Palmer has three #1wr, a capable running game esp with David Johnson and a fantastic defense.

Newton lost his only capable wr in the preseason though Olsen is certainly a weapon. Obv also has a dynamic defense.

Wilsons weapons are closer to cam but I'd give the edge to Wilson esp with the emergence of Baldwin and Lockett

No way palmer leads car to 15-1 perhaps Wilson would but since cam actually did i give him the slight nod.

Palmer and Brady a distant 3rd &4th.

 

[pokey_reese]

I think that I echo a lot of sentiments around here, in that I honestly won't take issue with any of the four winning the award, but that I think Cam will win and that Palmer or Wilson probably have an argument that they should win. Passing stats alone obviously underrate Newton, but should be discounted (not entirely, just counted less) not because they victimize a particular player, but because they do so as a result of failing to account for other valuable contributions.

Really for me though, I think my vote would be Palmer. Looking at NE, CAR, and SEA in terms of yards per offensive plays from scrimmage, those teams averaged 5.7, 5.5, and 5.8 yards/play, respectively. AZ averaged 6.3, and that is despite the fact that by FO's team rushing efficiency metrics AZ had the worst running game of any of those teams. Combine that with the fact that Palmer leads in almost all of the traditional passer evaluation stats as posted by others above, I think that he has the slight edge.

Honestly, the sad part is that I think I would vote for Brady last out of the four candidates this year. I'm a huge fan/apologist/booster of his, but all of the guys we are talking about lost significant offensive skill players and in some cases OLine players this season as well (remember that SEA offensive line disaster in the first half of the season?), so while I'm more familiar with the effects on Brady, I'm not sure that's as big of a difference maker as we think in this race. Obviously, the poor finish to the season matters as well, I'm not sure a QB can lose 4 of the last 6 games and still have much of a chance in a year where there are several deserving candidates.

 

[AB in DC]

Poor first half knocks out Wilson.
Poor second half knocks out Brady.

That leaves Palmer and Newton and I'd be ok with either as MVP.

 

[pokey_reese]

Palmer has three #1wr, a capable running game esp with David Johnson and a fantastic defense.

Newton lost his only capable wr in the preseason though Olsen is certainly a weapon. Obv also has a dynamic defense.

Wilsons weapons are closer to cam but I'd give the edge to Wilson esp with the emergence of Baldwin and Lockett

No way palmer leads car to 15-1 perhaps Wilson would but since cam actually did i give him the slight nod.

Palmer and Brady a distant 3rd &4th.

I don't think that you can ding Palmer for having a fantastic defense, when SEA and CAR have equally impressive defenses, and in fact Newton had slightly better average starting field position (in part because his team dominated in turnover margin). AZ certainly had better receivers healthy all year than anyone else, but a lot of how good they looked was because they had Palmer throwing to them (take a look at their numbers last year).

 

[coremiller]

Cam may or may not be a worthy winner (I think he is), but how he performs in QBR, which is an abominable metric, shouldn't be used as any sort of evidence for that.

Agreed.

QBR ranks, which FO apparently puts some stock in:

I suspect the only reason Football Outsiders includes QBR in their stats is that they have a partnership with ESPN. It's similar to how Barnwell now uses QBR as his go-to QB stat, even though if he wrote for anyone else he'd probably be shitting all over QBR constantly.

Newton has two issues. One is a low completion %. He's right there with all the other top guys in TD/INT/Sack rate, and he has a very good Y/C, but his Comp% is only 59.7, which ranked 28th this year. So he has some accuracy issues and has been a bit boom/bust -- lots of big plays down the field, but lots of misses as well. The comparison to Palmer is tough on Newton here, because Palmer has similar TD/INT/Sack rates, an even higher Y/C, and a completion % of 63.7. That's how Palmer ends up with such a big lead in ANY/A. Neither were dink-and-dunkers, both threw down field a lot, but Palmer/Arizona did it much better than Newton/Carolina did.

The other issue is strength of schedule. By DVOA, Carolina had the 32nd hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the league -- dead last (before this week, FO hasn't updated their data yet). Arizona ranked 21st hardest, Seattle 12, New England 17.

 

[soxfan121]

Put Carson Palmer in the Carolina offense and that team goes 6-10. It's doubtful Palmer's surgically-repaired knees make it through the season. Put Cam Newton on the Arizona Cardinals, with their skill position and offensive line talent, and the record remains about the same, while Newton has better looking stats.

Credit to CAR's offensive coordinator - David Shula - for building a successful offense around Newton, Greg Olsen, and nothing else. Aside from Olsen, does any Panther WR, TE or RB even make the AZ roster?

Stats aren't every useful in this context; Palmer's got better numbers because Palmer's got better teammates, a different scheme, and a much different role. Meanwhile, Newton was the Carolina offense and without him, they're the 2012 Raiders - quarterbacked, BTW, by Carson Palmer.

 

[ifmanis5]

Barnwell has Cam as MVP: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14499383/handing-awards-mvp-coach-year-many-others-2015-nfl

Didn't really give any stats to back it up. Cam feels like the Jack Morris candidate in some ways.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Put Carson Palmer in the Carolina offense and that team goes 6-10. It's doubtful Palmer's surgically-repaired knees make it through the season. Put Cam Newton on the Arizona Cardinals, with their skill position and offensive line talent, and the record remains about the same, while Newton has better looking stats.

Credit to CAR's offensive coordinator - David Shula - for building a successful offense around Newton, Greg Olsen, and nothing else. Aside from Olsen, does any Panther WR, TE or RB even make the AZ roster?

Stats aren't every useful in this context; Palmer's got better numbers because Palmer's got better teammates, a different scheme, and a much different role. Meanwhile, Newton was the Carolina offense and without him, they're the 2012 Raiders - quarterbacked, BTW, by Carson Palmer.

This is the argument in this thread that makes the most sense.

 

[coremiller]

Put Carson Palmer in the Carolina offense and that team goes 6-10. It's doubtful Palmer's surgically-repaired knees make it through the season. Put Cam Newton on the Arizona Cardinals, with their skill position and offensive line talent, and the record remains about the same, while Newton has better looking stats.

Credit to CAR's offensive coordinator - David Shula - for building a successful offense around Newton, Greg Olsen, and nothing else. Aside from Olsen, does any Panther WR, TE or RB even make the AZ roster?

Stats aren't every useful in this context; Palmer's got better numbers because Palmer's got better teammates, a different scheme, and a much different role. Meanwhile, Newton was the Carolina offense and without him, they're the 2012 Raiders - quarterbacked, BTW, by Carson Palmer.

5 other players on Carolina's offense made the Pro bowl. Some of that is the gaudy record, and some is Cam making them all look good, but the idea that Carolina's offense is Cam, a half-decent TE, and 9 replacement-level guys is a total myth. It's true that their wide receivers kind of suck, but the rest of the offense is solid.

 

[The Price Is Wrong]

I don't even think the WRs are that bad. Ted Ginn is arguably a rich man's Edelman, Corey Brown has speed and good hands, Funchess has size and strength, Cotchery is pretty serviceable... none of them are Megatron or Antonio Brown but it's not like they're running Reche Caldwell out there.

And their primary RB, Jonathan Stewart, has been a very consistent producer during his 8 years in the league, aside from the 2 where he was injured. 4.5 Y/A career, with ~2 receptions/game too. He's no Adrian Peterson but a lot of teams would love to have him.

Where CAR's offense stood out to me, in the handful of games I watched them, was their OL simply doesn't miss blocks. Yesterday, Josh Kline and Tre' Jackson looked like morons or idlers on a half dozen plays each. CAR's OL is fantastic at run blocking, and would be at pass blocking too if Cam didn't hold the ball so long all the time. I credit that more to technique coaching than to scheme.

 

[DJnVa]

I don't even think the WRs are that bad. Ted Ginn is arguably a rich man's Edelman.

Wait, what?

 

[AB in DC]

5 other players on Carolina's offense made the Pro bowl. Some of that is the gaudy record, and some is Cam making them all look good, but the idea that Carolina's offense is Cam, a half-decent TE, and 9 replacement-level guys is a total myth. It's true that their wide receivers kind of suck, but the rest of the offense is solid.

Though, in fairness, only Newton/Kalil/Olsen are no-brainers. Tolbert gets the Mike Alstott Memorial fullback-who's-really-a-running-back slot, and Jonathan Stewart only gets in because it's a down year for RBs in general (and Thomas Rawls should have gotten that slot anyway).

(And though I know nothing about Trai Turner, let's just say Pro Bowl voters don't have a solid track record of selecting good OGs.)

 

[johnmd20]

Wait, what?

Rich's man Edelman, even. That is saying something, but I don't think Wrong meant what he wrote and even if he wrote it correctly, it's not true.

 

[DJnVa]

So the Price is Wrong is wrong?

 

[johnmd20]

So the Price is Wrong is wrong?

Indubitably wrong.

 

[DJnVa]

 

[soxfan121]

5 other players on Carolina's offense made the Pro bowl. Some of that is the gaudy record, and some is Cam making them all look good, but the idea that Carolina's offense is Cam, a half-decent TE, and 9 replacement-level guys is a total myth. It's true that their wide receivers kind of suck, but the rest of the offense is solid.

The Pro Bowl?

Oh, well then.

 

[soxfan121]

Though, in fairness, only Newton/Kalil/Olsen are no-brainers. Tolbert gets the Mike Alstott Memorial fullback-who's-really-a-running-back slot, and Jonathan Stewart only gets in because it's a down year for RBs in general (and Thomas Rawls should have gotten that slot anyway).

(And though I know nothing about Trai Turner, let's just say Pro Bowl voters don't have a solid track record of selecting good OGs.)

Turner is really good. The fans tend not to vote for the OL, or vote for all five of their teams' guys, so that portion of the vote isn't a cluster and tends to be a bit more reliable. It's still crap, but I don't need to tell you about the silliness of using the Pro Bowl as a measuring stick.

 

[coremiller]

I don't think Pro Bowl selection means a whole lot either, and I would never cite it as evidence that those players are actually Top-5 at their position, but I think it's at least a good shorthand indicator that the rest of the offensive talent isn't awful. Outside of reputation picks. It's rare that total scrubs get selected; nearly all the selections are at least solid players. You were the one arguing they have "nothing" on offense besides Newton and Olsen and that nobody else on their offense would even make AZ's roster (forget starting, just make the roster). That's patently absurd and much sillier than anything I said.

 

[McBride11]

Didn't Peyton Manning just lead the Broncos to #1 seed in the AFC? He literally willed his team to come back yesterday, TWICE, in a must win game. Maybe the best win of his career. Hands down winner.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think Newton is pretty clearly going to win. And he's not an undeserving winner. 15-1, very good stats, great TD production when you add rushing, all that. MVP-worthy season, IMO.

Palmer also is MVP worthy.

I think Brady should receive a lot of votes but he won't. Even though he struggled in the second half (thanks, injuries!), he had a phenomenal season:

402-624 (64.4%), 4,770 yds, 36 td, 7 int, 102.2 rating, 3rd highest scoring team in the league, 12-4 record

Palmer, by comparison:

342-537 (63.7%), 4,671 yds, 35 td, 11 int, 104.6 rating, 2nd highest scoring team in the league, 13-3 record

For what it's worth, Brady is 1st in passing yards, 1st in TD, 1st in fewest INTs, 1st in INT%.

Dude absolutely had an MVP-caliber season, but he might not get a single vote. If his last name was Manning, leading an injury-ravaged Bronco (or Colt) team to a 12-4 record and first round bye, with those numbers, he'd probably win the thing.

 

[ifmanis5]

If his last name was Manning, leading an injury-ravaged Bronco (or Colt) team to a 12-4 record and first round bye, with those numbers, he'd probably win the thing.

Pretty sure Jim Nantz is voting for Manning this year anyway, just to be safe.

 

[Super Nomario]

I don't even think the WRs are that bad. Ted Ginn is arguably a rich man's Edelman

Ted Ginn was on the Cardinals last year - he was their FIFTH wide receiver. He had less than 200 receiving yards. They cut him in February. It's just silly to compare Newton's and Palmer's "individual stats" like they are apples to apples.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

For what it's worth, Brady is 1st in passing yards, 1st in TD, 1st in fewest INTs, 1st in INT%.

He actually finished third in passing yards.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Poor first half knocks out Wilson.
Poor second half knocks out Brady.

That leaves Palmer and Newton and I'd be ok with either as MVP.

Brady's second half: 59.8 completion percentage, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2061 yds, 89.7 rating

Newton's first half: 53.66 completion percentage, 14 TD, 9 INT, 1820 yds, 81.4 rating

 

[AB in DC]

Brady's second half: 59.8 completion percentage, 14 TD, 5 INT, 2061 yds, 89.7 rating

Newton's first half: 53.66 completion percentage, 14 TD, 9 INT, 1820 yds, 81.4 rating

Missing something very obvious about Cam Newton's stats, aren't we?


It's not called the Most Valuable Passer award.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

His rushing DVOA among QBs ranked 18th. When you add his rushing DYAR, it moves him to 10th overall from 11th.

He wasn't just "not great" at passing in the first half; he was well below average. He had a passer rating below 77 in 5 of his team's first 8 games, yet they won them all. Cam Newton is just not the main reason the Carolina Panthers were so good this year.

 

[AB in DC]

Cam Newton is just not the main reason the Carolina Panthers were so good this year.

OK, wow. I like the Football Outsiders stats as much as anyone, but if you're going to make a statement like that, you'll need a whole lot more than that to back it up.