NFL Playoffs & Seeding Probability

[SeoulSoxFan]

There really isn't a catch-all thread for something like this, so although it's WAY too early here's a thread to track playoff & divisional probability. 
 
First up is from http://billmill.org/champsleagueviz/nfl/ - which comes from the betting odds at http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/afc-east/winner
 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Another chart to track is the FootballOutsiders: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Has Pats at 77.7% of winning the division & also getting the #2 seed, but only through three weeks, not counting last night's win at Falcons. 
 
Edit: also to note, Giants are still only 2 games out at 0-4 with lots of divisional games coming up. Puts the chance of acquiring Nicks still far flung at best. 

 

[tims4wins]

Cross-posting from Colts thread as it probably belongs here instead
 
Colts have been interesting to follow so far. On the one hand, their record is exactly what I expected after 6 games (though I expected the losses to be to SF and Seattle), and they have actually overall showed a higher upside than I expected. On the other hand, they lost at home to Miami, almost lost at home to the Raiders, and just lost to a Chargers team that really doesn't play very good defense. I have no idea what to expect out of the Colts at this point, or where they are headed from here.
 
Here is the remaining schedule with my projection:
vs. Denver (L)
@ Houston (W)
vs. St. Louis (W)
@ Tennessee (L)
@ Arizona (W)
vs. Tennessee (W)
@ Cincinnati (L)
vs. Houston (W)
@ KC (L)
vs. Jacksonville (W)
 
I think that is fairly generous, giving them both Houston wins. Of course they could also split with Houston and beat Tennessee twice. Looks like they will have a good shot at double digit wins.
 
What is really interesting is the race for the 2nd AFC bye. Pats have a 1 game lead on Cincy, but Cincy has the head to head tiebreaker. Of course, that goes out the window if there is a 3 team tie. Cincy's remaining schedule and my projection:
@ Detroit (W)
vs. NYJ (W)
@ Miami (L)
@ Baltimore (L)
vs. Cleveland (W)
@ San Diego (L)
vs. Indy (W)
@ Pittsburgh (L)
vs. Vikings (W)
vs. Baltimore (W)
 
Again, they will have a good shot at 10+ wins. I think if the Pats can get to 12 wins it will be hard for Indy or Cincy to catch them for a bye, 11 wins less so.

 

[dynomite]

Thanks for starting the thread, Seoul. As it gets toward late October, it's fun to start thinking ahead.

As tims says above, the real race seems to be for the #2 seed in the AFC this season. Indeed, through 6 weeks it seems like the AFC has fewer "elite" teams than in most recent seasons, with the Ravens, Steelers, and Texans taking significant steps backward.

Again, [Bengals] will have a good shot at 10+ wins. I think if the Pats can get to 12 wins it will be hard for Indy or Cincy to catch them for a bye, 11 wins less so.

Agreed. Obviously predicting Wins/Losses this far out is always something of a quixotic effort. (Consider vs.ARI in '12, @BUF in '11, @CLE in '10) Through 6 weeks, though, the Patriots have looked generally deeper and -- oddly enough -- more consistent than pretty much anyone in the AFC, particularly on defense. Even the Mayo, Amendola, and Talib injuries seem to have come at the right time, with a comparatively easier month of games upcoming (Jets/Dolphins/Steelers/Panthers).

In fact, looking at the Patriots schedule, 12 wins seems eminently achievable (and in fact, apart from vs.DEN it's hard to see any games where the Patriots will go in as underdogs). As such, I would expect something akin to:
@NYJ (W)
vs.MIA (W)
vs.PIT (W)
@CAR (W)
vs.DEN (L)
@HOU (W)
vs.CLE (W)
@MIA (L)
@BAL (L)
vs.BUF (W)

While you could swap out the losses in Baltimore and Miami for surprises in, say, Houston or Carolina, I find it hard to believe the Patriots will lose more than about 3 of their last 10 games, especially with the looming returns of key players on offense and defense.

Should be fun.

 

[JKelley34]

No worries about the 6-0 Chiefs? 
 
Houston
Cleveland
Buffalo
Denver
San Diego
Denver
Washington
Oakland
Indy
San Diego
 
Seems like a pretty soft path to 12 wins. 

 

[jsinger121]

No worries about the 6-0 Chiefs? 
 
Houston
Cleveland
Buffalo
Denver
San Diego
Denver
Washington
Oakland
Indy
San Diego
 
Seems like a pretty soft path to 12 wins. 

If they can't beat Denver out for the division they are not getting a bye.

 

[dbn]

Thanks for starting the thread, Seoul. As it gets toward late October, it's fun to start thinking ahead.

As tims says above, the real race seems to be for the #2 seed in the AFC this season. Indeed, through 6 weeks it seems like the AFC has fewer "elite" teams than in most recent seasons, with the Ravens, Steelers, and Texans taking significant steps backward.


Agreed. Obviously predicting Wins/Losses this far out is always something of a quixotic effort. (Consider vs.ARI in '12, @BUF in '11, @CLE in '10) Through 6 weeks, though, the Patriots have looked generally deeper and -- oddly enough -- more consistent than pretty much anyone in the AFC, particularly on defense. Even the Mayo, Amendola, and Talib injuries seem to have come at the right time, with a comparatively easier month of games upcoming (Jets/Dolphins/Steelers/Panthers).

In fact, looking at the Patriots schedule, 12 wins seems eminently achievable (and in fact, apart from vs.DEN it's hard to see any games where the Patriots will go in as underdogs). As such, I would expect something akin to:
@NYJ (W)
vs.MIA (W)
vs.PIT (W)
@CAR (W)
vs.DEN (L)
@HOU (W)
vs.CLE (W)
@MIA (L)
@BAL (L)
vs.BUF (W)

While you could swap out the losses in Baltimore and Miami for surprises in, say, Houston or Carolina, I find it hard to believe the Patriots will lose more than about 3 of their last 10 games, especially with the looming returns of key players on offense and defense.

Should be fun.

 
While the bolded might turn out to be true, it could also work the other way; i.e., not having those key players could lead to losses in games they otherwise would have won, while they still lose against the best teams even with them.  I don't mean to be pessimistic, but I really think Talib and Mayo are really, really important to the team's success.
 

No worries about the 6-0 Chiefs? 
 
Houston
Cleveland
Buffalo
Denver
San Diego
Denver
Washington
Oakland
Indy
San Diego
 
Seems like a pretty soft path to 12 wins. 

 
What singer said, but to your other point, they have a crazily-easy schedule this year.  In addition to their division, they play against the worst division in the AFC, the worst division in football, @JAC and CLE.  I have a feeling they are going into the postseason highly overrated come the end of the year.

 

[JKelley34]

I'm an idiot. That's all.

 

[tims4wins]

Last night was one of those games that will probably come back to haunt Cincy. Hard to see them getting to 12 wins now.

 

[jsinger121]

Last night was one of those games that will probably come back to haunt Cincy. Hard to see them getting to 12 wins now.

 
Agreed and on top of that there defense took a huge hit with the loss of Geno Atkins. I expect that defense to look a lot worse without him in there.

 

[dcmissle]

Last night was one of those games that will probably come back to haunt Cincy. Hard to see them getting to 12 wins now.

With that HC/QB combo, they deserve no benefit of the doubt. They have to do it first, at which point I'll confess error. Can't-stand-prosperity kids.

 

[lambeau]

The Colts (5-2) appear a bigger threat to #2 seed than the Bengals (6-3):    @HOU  St L  @TEN  @ARI  TEN  @CIN  HOU  @KC  JAC .  
 
As I understand it, if they lose to KC and we lose to Denver,say, and we both finish 13-3 (or 12-4)--they've probably beaten stronger teams (SF, SEA, DEN)--the tie-breaker.

 

[soxfan121]

The Colts (5-2) appear a bigger threat to #2 seed than the Bengals (6-3):    @HOU  St L  @TEN  @ARI  TEN  @CIN  HOU  @KC  JAC .  
 
As I understand it, if they lose to KC and we lose to Denver,say, and we both finish 13-3 (or 12-4)--they've probably beaten stronger teams (SF, SEA, DEN)--the tie-breaker.

 
The Colts wins over SEA and SF matter very little in a potential tiebreaker, so do the Pats wins against ATL and NO. A much larger factor will the Colts losses to San Diego (conference) and especially Miami (common opponent/conference). 
 
EDIT: The tie-breaker procedures.

 

[lambeau]

Colts likely to have better common opponent record if they beat Bengals?

 

[RedOctober3829]

If playoffs started today......
 
1. Kansas City 9-0
2. New England 7-2
3. Indianapolis 6-2
4. Cincinnati 6-3
5. Denver 7-1
6. NY Jets 5-4
 
Tennessee 4-4
San Diego 4-4
Miami 4-4
 
Contenders for First-Round Byes At A Glance
 
New England(7-2)
AFC Record: 4-2
SOS after Week 9: .434(4th among playoff spot holders)
SOV after Week 9: .379(4th among playoff spot holders)
Remaining Schedule: 7 games(4 Road, 3 Home)
at Carolina, vs. Denver, at Houston, vs. Cleveland, at Miami, at Baltimore, vs. Buffalo
 
Kansas City(9-0)
AFC Record: 6-0
Common Opponents to New England: 5(Denver, Denver, Houston(W), Cleveland(W), Buffalo(W)
SOS after Week 9: .355(2nd worst in NFL)
SOV after Week 9: .355(worst in AFC)
Remaining Schedule: 7 games(4 Road, 3 Home)
Bye, at Denver, vs. SD, vs. Denver, at Washington, at Oakland, vs.  Indy, at San Diego
 
Denver (7-1)
AFC Record: 3-1
Common Opponents to New England: 2(Baltimore(W) and Houston)
SOS after Week 9: .394(5th among playoff teams)
SOV after Week 9: .345(5th among playoff teams)
Remaining Schedule: 8 games(5 Road, 3 Home)
at SD, vs. KC, at New England, at KC, vs. Tennessee, vs. SD, at Houston, at Oakland
 
Indianapolis(6-2)
AFC Record: 4-2
Common Opponents to New England: 5(Houston, Houston(W), Miami(L), Denver(W), Cincinnati)
SOS after Week 9: .523(2nd among playoff teams)
SOV after Week 9: .531(best)
Remaining Schedule: 8 games(4 Home, 4 Road)
vs. STL, at Tennessee, at Arizona, vs. Tennessee, at Cincinnati, vs. Houston, at KC, vs. Jacksonville
 
Cincinnati 6-3
Currently holds head-to-head tiebreaker over NE.  All other 2-way tiebreakers would be moot.
Remaining Schedule: 7 games(3 Road, 5 Home)
at Baltimore, vs. Cleveland, Bye, at SD, vs. Indianapolis, at Pittsburgh, vs. Minnesota, vs. Baltimore

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

With the cold weather coming, I think Denver is in as much trouble as a 7-1 team can get. They have 2 games vs. KC left, travels to NE, and have a tough roadie vs. SD. Even the Titans game isn't a total gimmie. 
 
I think NE have put themselves in a good position to hold on to the #2 seed. 

 

[Stitch01]

Seems like a pretty big overstatement about Denver
 
Right now they'd be -4.5/-9.5 against KC, -3 @ NE, -7.5 @ SD, -12.5 vs Tenn, @7.5 or 8 @ Houston.

Its not a cakewalk or anything, but they're better than 50/50 to sweep KC and, if they do, they're a strong favorite for a bye.  They beat everyone by about 50 points last November and December, so Im not that worried about cold weather.
 
FO had them 60% to win the division and 57% to get the bye as of last week, will be a little lower now Id think but not much.  Most/all of the advanced metrics have them as the best team.
 
They're pretty well positioned.

 

[dbn]

With the cold weather coming, I think Denver is in as much trouble as a 7-1 team can get. They have 2 games vs. KC left, travels to NE, and have a tough roadie vs. SD. Even the Titans game isn't a total gimmie. 
 
I think NE have put themselves in a good position to hold on to the #2 seed. 

 
Honest question: what does the cold have to do with anything?  Is there something about Manning's neck condition that would be affected by the cold?  

 

[tims4wins]

Hey red, with regard to Cincy's win over the Pats, doesnn't that become moot in event of a 3 way tie, such as if Cincy, Indy, and the Pats all tied for the 2nd best record?

 

[soxfan121]

 
Honest question: what does the cold have to do with anything?  Is there something about Manning's neck condition that would be affected by the cold?  

 
First, Peyton has spent most of his career indoors or in warm weather. His record in cold weather is acceptable but it's always an issue when you go from climate-controlled to climate-uncontrolled. 
 
Second, it's not so much the neck as it is the nerve damage. Specifically, the ability to grip the ball. In cold weather, it is just harder to grip the ball, which is why some QBs go to gloves. Peyton has been wearing gloves all season and has admitted to some issues with respect to his arm/hand since the neck surgery. 
 
Third, it won't necessarily be cold in Denver in December and January (as I learned the last time this came up) but it is possible that weather conditions will not be ideal for a guy who prefers the climate-controlled confines of a dome and has had major neck surgery resulting in nerve damage to his arm and hand. 
 
So it is POSSIBLE that Peyton's ability to sling it around the yard in December and January like he does in September will be affected.

 

[IdiotKicker]

The issue with that Broncos team is that they could potentially finish 13-3 and still end up as the 5-seed, pending their results against KC later this year.  This puts them on the road for three playoff games, and while they still are probably the best team in the AFC, it does make it a more difficult road for them, especially if they end up having to go into Arrowhead for a road playoff game in January.  Though that offense against the Kansas City defense would be exciting as hell to watch in the playoffs.

 

[Super Nomario]

The Chiefs are 9-0, but their schedule has been a complete joke. Only one game against a winning team, a one-point win over the Cowboys. Their biggest wins are over Jacksonville, Oakland, and the Giants. Four of their wins are over teams that weren't starting their opening day QB. I don't see them taking either of the Denver games, and a 3-4 record over their final 7 (which also features 2 San Diego games, Indy at home, and road games against Washington and Oakland) looks like the most likely outcome to me.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Hey red, with regard to Cincy's win over the Pats, doesnn't that become moot in event of a 3 way tie, such as if Cincy, Indy, and the Pats all tied for the 2nd best record?

3-way tie would make it moot, yes.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

 

Honest question: what does the cold have to do with anything?  Is there something about Manning's neck condition that would be affected by the cold?  

 

So it is POSSIBLE that Peyton's ability to sling it around the yard in December and January like he does in September will be affected.

 

As of the end of 2012 season, here are Manning's stats in games under 40 Degrees:

• 292-453, 3553 yards, 23 TDs, 14 INT (64.5%, 7.8 ypa, 92.5 QB rating)

While that's not too shabby, that represents a TD/INT ratio of 1.64. Manning's career TD/INT ratio is 2.16 (465 TDs, 215 INT). Even though some other stats (QB rating, Y/A, etc.) are close to his career norm, I think the TD/INT ratio is most significant.
 
Of course, Manning is also 0-4 in all playoff games played under 40 degrees, including last year's contest vs. Ravens. (Before the Ravens game, the stats on those 0-3 games have been particularly brutal: 64-120 with 612 yards, 1 TD, and 7 INTs in losing to 41-0 vs. Jets and 24-14 + 20-3 to Pats). 
 
Now, I have no idea if cold has an effect on his neck, but we've seen some awful ducks he's been throwing lately. If Manning arm strength is any concern, I can't believe it won't be worse in cold & (especially) windy wintery weather. 
 
Here's Denver Post's article on why Peyton didn't throw deep once during the loss to Ravens:
 

Some wonder if the cold prevented Manning from airing things out Saturday. Manning spent the season rehabbing his right arm and shoulder as part of his recovery from his neck surgeries. He had already admitted to wearing a glove on his throwing hand because his grip was different in his post-surgery career.
 
Manning had multiple surgeries to repair a disc issue in his neck that caused damage to the nerve grouping that affects his right triceps, which then impacted his ability to grip and throw the ball. He began wearing a glove on his throwing hand first in practice, then later in games as the season wore on.
 
Asked in the days before the Ravens game why he was wearing a glove on his throwing hand for the first time in his career, Manning said:
 
"I certainly don't think I would have had to wear the glove had I not been injured last year. It's part of my injury, some things that I've had to adjust. I've been pretty consistent in kind of letting you guys know that all year long, that I'm in a different body, some things are different for me. So I've had to adjust. That's the reason for that as much as anything. That's really kind of what it is."

 

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I'd almost rather have the #2 seed this year, especially if the Broncos end up as the #5, simply because it's likely the #3 beats the #6, and then you can avoid Peyton and the Broncos until the AFCCG.

 

[ivanvamp]

I'd almost rather have the #2 seed this year, especially if the Broncos end up as the #5, simply because it's likely the #3 beats the #6, and then you can avoid Peyton and the Broncos until the AFCCG.

 
I think this is actually a pretty reasonable scenario.  It is imperative that the Chiefs at least split with Denver, and hopefully NE can beat the Broncos at home, which would mean that Denver would have a hard time passing KC.  So let's say the current playoff standings hold:
 
1. Kansas City 9-0
2. New England 7-2
3. Indianapolis 6-2
4. Cincinnati 6-3
5. Denver 7-1
6. NY Jets 5-4
 
I'd predict that Indy beats the Jets and Denver beats Cincy, which would set this up for the divisional round:  
 
Den at KC
Ind at NE
 
Indy is tough this year, but I'd still take that matchup over having to face the Broncos earlier.  

 

[dynomite]

IIt is imperative that the Chiefs at least split with Denver, and hopefully NE can beat the Broncos at home, which would mean that Denver would have a hard time passing KC.

I'm with Nomario here.

The Chiefs have played one of the softest schedules in the NFL this season, and are about to run into good teams for the first time. Football Outsiders has them 9th in DVOA, 1 spot behind CIN and 2 spots ahead of NE.

I'd be shocked if they finished better than 3-4, and could see them losing any of their remaining 7 games apart from @OAK, maybe.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's all falling into place for the Pats to grab the #2 seed. 12-4 will be a virtual lock but there's a good chance that 11-5 is enough.

 

[DanoooME]

I'll tackle the NFC side of the playoff ledger (and yes, I know 98% of you don't really give a shit  )
 
Seattle 9-1
New Orleans 7-2
Detroit 6-3
Dallas 5-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker for division with Philly)
Carolina 6-3 (wins H2H tiebreaker with SF)
San Francisco 6-3
 
Chicago 5-4
Green Bay 5-4
Arizona 5-4
Philadelphia 5-5
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - Min, BYE, NO, @SF, @NYG, Ariz, StL (.491)
New Orleans - SF, @Atl, @Sea, Car, @StL, @Car, vs TB (.516)
Detroit - @Pitt, TB, GB, @Phi, Balt, NYG, @Min (.349)
Carolina - NE, @Mia, vs TB, @NO, NYJ, NO, @Atl (.525)
San Francisco - @NO, @Wash, StL, Sea, @TB, Atl, @Ariz (.469)

 

[tims4wins]

It's all falling into place for the Pats to grab the #2 seed. 12-4 will be a virtual lock but there's a good chance that 11-5 is enough.

Yup. Also falling in place for the Jets to sneak into the 6 seed. Tonight's game is huge for Miami.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

The Chiefs are 9-0, but their schedule has been a complete joke. Only one game against a winning team, a one-point win over the Cowboys. Their biggest wins are over Jacksonville, Oakland, and the Giants. Four of their wins are over teams that weren't starting their opening day QB. I don't see them taking either of the Denver games, and a 3-4 record over their final 7 (which also features 2 San Diego games, Indy at home, and road games against Washington and Oakland) looks like the most likely outcome to me.

This is all true, but while the Broncos have played a tougher schedule, it's been a fairly easy one to this point. The one team they've faced that currently has a winning record is the Colts, and they lost to them. The second best is probably the Cowboys, and they barely won that game.

Their most impressive win of the season is against the Eagles.

 

[dbn]

I'll be interested to see the new FO playoff odds through week 10.  There are 5 4-5 teams in the AFC, i.e., one game back of the Jets for the 2nd WC.
 
On a light note: in the NFC, Dallas and Philly unfortunately both already have 5 wins and play each other again, so my dream of seeing a team win the Superbowl with a total record under 0.500 won't happen this year.   

 

[Dgilpin]

I'll tackle the NFC side of the playoff ledger (and yes, I know 98% of you don't really give a shit  )
 
Seattle 9-1
New Orleans 7-2
Detroit 6-3
Dallas 5-5 (wins H2H tiebreaker for division with Philly)
Carolina 6-3 (wins H2H tiebreaker with SF)
San Francisco 6-3
 
Chicago 5-4
Green Bay 5-4
Arizona 5-4
Philadelphia 5-5
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - Min, BYE, NO, @SF, @NYG, Ariz, StL (.491)
New Orleans - SF, @Atl, @Sea, Car, @StL, @Car, vs TB (.516)
Detroit - @Pitt, TB, GB, @Phi, Balt, NYG, @Min (.349)
Carolina - NE, @Mia, vs TB, @NO, NYJ, NO, @Atl (.525)
San Francisco - @NO, @Wash, StL, Sea, @TB, Atl, @Ariz (.469)

 
Thanks for doing this, not to put the cart in front of the horse but the Lions remaining schedule really gives them a solid shot at grabbing the 2 seed in the NFC. Their next 3 games are huge, winning those would almost guarantee them the division and give them a really good shot at finishing 12-4. Another thing to consider if Carolina wins this week against the Pats, they have a decent chance at winning that division.

 

[Briz]

Updated dvoa playoff odds via football outsiders.  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats now at 96.5% to make the playoffs, 47.4% to have a bye with the most likely outcome is the #2 seed (41%).  Winning the division odds are at 88.2%.  
 
Jets odds of making the playoffs now pushing 50%.  I would have laughed at you if you told me this would be the case after week 10 when the season started.
 
Other numbers that stood out:
-Denver still favored over KC for the #1 seed (~51% vs 41%) and KC odds indicate they will either be #1 or #5 more so than Denver.  Not surprising since Denver plays the Pats while KC does not.  Also, KC is two up in the loss column on NE.  But it is 2% vs 5% for the #2 seed for the two teams.
-The simulated mean wins implies 8 wins may win the NFC East.
-Seattle is pulling away with the division and conference (97% to win the division and 84% to have the #1 seed).  Interestingly, Seattle also scored the highest in mean wins at 13.3 (above Denver and KC who are tied with 13).
-After the jets, SD has the highest odds of the #6 seed at ~10%.  Mia, Bal, Cle and Ten are all around 7-8% (range = 6.8 (Ten) to 8.3% (Bal).

 

[tims4wins]

There are currently 9 teams within 1.5 games of the 6 seed in the AFC. Holy tiebreaker scenarios Batman.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

There are currently 9 teams within 1.5 games of the 6 seed in the AFC. Holy tiebreaker scenarios Batman.

 
And none of them have a winning record.

 

[dbn]

Two thoughts: 1) I hope the race for the 2nd WC remains this close and crowded.  It'll make for a super-entertaining stretch run.  2) Avoiding the 4 seed is going to be seriously important.  To reach the ACCCG, the 4th seed would have to beat KC and then DEN in Denver, while the 3rd seed gets to play the "winner" of the battle for the final WC spot in the wildcard round.

 

[tims4wins]

For reference: tie-breaking procedures
 

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

 

[dynomite]

Two thoughts: 1) I hope the race for the 2nd WC remains this close and crowded.  It'll make for a super-entertaining stretch run.  2) Avoiding the 4 seed is going to be seriously important.  To reach the ACCCG, the 4th seed would have to beat KC and then DEN in Denver, while the 3rd seed gets to play the "winner" of the battle for the final WC spot in the wildcard round.

I agree with this for the most part. I would much rather play any of the Titans/Dolphins/Jets than the Chiefs.

That said, I'm of the opinion that there's not much of a difference between the #1 and #2 seed for the Patriots (I think team health will determine their fate, regardless of location), which I find a more likely destination for the 2013 Patriots, especially with the Bengals and Colts dropping winnable games.

Anyway, here are the current standings for the #6 seed:
5-5 Jets
5-5 Dolphins
4-6 Raiders
4-6 Titans
4-6 Steelers
4-6 Ravens
4-6 Browns
4-6 Chargers

Pretty motley crew.

 

[Shelterdog]

I agree with this for the most part. I would much rather play any of the Titans/Dolphins/Jets than the Chiefs.

That said, I'm of the opinion that there's not much of a difference between the #1 and #2 seed for the Patriots (I think team health will determine their fate, regardless of location), which I find a more likely destination for the 2013 Patriots, especially with the Bengals and Colts dropping winnable games.

Anyway, here are the current standings for the #6 seed:
5-5 Jets
5-5 Dolphins
4-6 Raiders
4-6 Titans
4-6 Steelers
4-6 Ravens
4-6 Browns
4-6 Chargers

Pretty motley crew.

 
Lets hope we get some clarity in a hurry: as a Pats fan it would be great if Browns-Dolphins-Ravens-Bills end of our schedule involved four teams who were already out of the playoffs rather than four teams desparately fighting for a spot. 

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree with this for the most part. I would much rather play any of the Titans/Dolphins/Jets than the Chiefs.

That said, I'm of the opinion that there's not much of a difference between the #1 and #2 seed for the Patriots (I think team health will determine their fate, regardless of location), which I find a more likely destination for the 2013 Patriots, especially with the Bengals and Colts dropping winnable games.

Anyway, here are the current standings for the #6 seed:
5-5 Jets
5-5 Dolphins
4-6 Raiders
4-6 Titans
4-6 Steelers
4-6 Ravens
4-6 Browns
4-6 Chargers

Pretty motley crew.

Don't forget the 4-7 Bills, who have split with the Jets and beaten the Ravens and Dolphins. Their closing schedule is a snap: bye, 2-8 Falcons, @ 2-8 Bucs, @ 1-9 Jags, 5-5 Dolphins, and @ a Pats team that may or may not be playing for anything week 17.

 

[Briz]

I agree with this for the most part. I would much rather play any of the Titans/Dolphins/Jets than the Chiefs.

That said, I'm of the opinion that there's not much of a difference between the #1 and #2 seed for the Patriots (I think team health will determine their fate, regardless of location), which I find a more likely destination for the 2013 Patriots, especially with the Bengals and Colts dropping winnable games.

Anyway, here are the current standings for the #6 seed:
5-5 Jets
5-5 Dolphins
4-6 Raiders
4-6 Titans
4-6 Steelers
4-6 Ravens
4-6 Browns
4-6 Chargers

Pretty motley crew.

Just for fun, here are the remaining schedules for those teams for everyone:
 
5-5 Jets                @Balt,      Mia,         Oak,      @Car,      Cle,            @Mia   
5-5 Dolphins       Car,          @NYJ,     @Pitt,     NE,         @Buff,       NYJ      
4-6 Raiders         Ten,          @Dal,     @NYJ,     KC,         @SD,         Den
4-6 Titans            @Oak,     @Indy,     @Den,     Ari,         @Jax,         Hou
4-6 Steelers        @Cle,       @Balt,     Mia,        Cinci,      @GB,         Cle
4-6 Ravens         NYJ,         Pitt,           Min,         @Det,     NE,           @Cinci
4-6 Browns         Pitt,         Jax,            @NE,      Chi,         @NYJ,      @Pitt
4-6 Chargers      @KC,      Cinci,        NYG,       @Den,    Oak,          KC
4-7 Bills               BYE,         Atl,            @TB,       @Jax,      Mia,          @NE
 
I've bolded the games where the teams are playing each other.
 
I find the Bills chances intriguing.  They get to feast on 3 bottom feeders after their BYE week and could be staring at 7-7 going into the final two weeks.  Considering Mia has 4 games they could lose (Car, @NYJ (odd week so jets probably lose), @Pitt and then NE), Buff might be playing a Dolphins team that will roll over for them.  Otherwise, the Bills have a shot of being 8-7 and going against a Pats team that potentially has little to play for as their playoff seed could be decided.  It reminds me of NYJ vs Indy a couple of years ago.

 

[dbn]

Just for fun, here are the remaining schedules for those teams for everyone:
 
5-5 Jets                @Balt,      Mia,         Oak,      @Car,      Cle,            @Mia   
5-5 Dolphins       Car,          @NYJ,     @Pitt,     NE,         @Buff,       NYJ      
4-6 Raiders         Ten,          @Dal,     @NYJ,     KC,         @SD,         Den
4-6 Titans            @Oak,     @Indy,     @Den,     Ari,         @Jax,         Hou
4-6 Steelers        @Cle,       @Balt,     Mia,        Cinci,      @GB,         Cle
4-6 Ravens         NYJ,         Pitt,           Min,         @Det,     NE,           @Cinci
4-6 Browns         Pitt,         Jax,            @NE,      Chi,         @NYJ,      @Pitt
4-6 Chargers      @KC,      Cinci,        NYG,       @Den,    Oak,          KC
4-7 Bills               BYE,         Atl,            @TB,       @Jax,      Mia,          @NE
 
I've bolded the games where the teams are playing each other.
 
I find the Bills chances intriguing.  They get to feast on 3 bottom feeders after their BYE week and could be staring at 7-7 going into the final two weeks.  Considering Mia has 4 games they could lose (Car, @NYJ (odd week so jets probably lose), @Pitt and then NE), Buff might be playing a Dolphins team that will roll over for them.  Otherwise, the Bills have a shot of being 8-7 and going against a Pats team that potentially has little to play for as their playoff seed could be decided.  It reminds me of NYJ vs Indy a couple of years ago.

 
Thanks for that.  One thing I notice is about the week 17 match ups.  It could be that none of those opponents are resting players for the playoffs in games with nothing to gain, or that several are (e.g., DEN, KC, CIN, NE).  I hate when teams back in to the playoffs by beating a superior team that is resting the starters in a week 17 matchup.

 

[DanoooME]

Updating the NFC after the Monday Night No-Call
 
Seattle 10-1
New Orleans 8-2
Detroit 6-4
Philadelphia 6-5
Carolina 7-3 
San Francisco 6-4 (H2H tiebreaker with Arizona, Conference record tiebreaker with Chicago)
 
Arizona 6-4
Chicago 6-4
Dallas 5-5
Green Bay 5-5
 
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - BYE, NO, @SF, @NYG, Ariz, StL (.522)
New Orleans - @Atl, @Sea, Car, @StL, @Car, vs TB (.525)
Carolina - @Mia, vs TB, @NO, NYJ, NO, @Atl (.467)
Detroit - TB, GB, @Phi, Balt, NYG, @Min (.377)
San Francisco - @Wash, StL, Sea, @TB, Atl, @Ariz (.443)
Arizona - Indy, @Phi, StL, @Ten, @Sea, SF (.597)
Chicago - @StL, @Min, Dal, @Cle, @Phi, GB (.426)
 
In two weeks, the game that could likely decide the #1 seed in the NFC - Saints @ Seahawks.

 

[nattysez]

Tonight's loss is going to make for some tense moments in terms of the Pats' playoff seed.
 
Pats are 7-3 and have v. Denver, @Tex, v. Cle, @Mia, @Bal, v. Buf.  Let's assume they win three games of the remainder and finish 10-6.
 
Miami are 5-5 and have v. Car, @NYJ, @PIT, v. NE, @BUF, v. NYJ.  
NYJ are 5-5 and have @Bal, v. Mia, v. OAK, @CAR, v. Cle, @Mia.  
 
So the Dolphins and Jets would have to go 5-1 to tie the Pats.  Seems unlikely given their schedules and play to date.  That Miami-NE tilt could be the division-clincher for the Pats.
 
The Bengals are currently 7-4.  Their remaining schedule is @SD, v. Colts, @PIT, v. MIN, v. BAL.  They'd need to win three of those five to tie the 10-6 Pats.  That does not strike me as implausible, and even a 4-1 finish to get to 11-5 isn't a ridiculous projection.  

 

[ivanvamp]

My prediction for the AFC at this point:
 
CURRENT:  
1. Den (9-1) - at NE, at KC, vs Ten, vs SD, at Hou, at Oak - I think they go 5-1 with the loss being at KC
2. Ind (7-3) - at Ari, vs Ten, at Cin, vs Hou, at KC, vs Jax - I think they go 4-2 with the losses being at Cin and at KC
3. NE (7-3) - vs Den, at Hou, vs Cle, at Mia, at Bal, vs Buf - I think they go 4-2 with the losses being vs Den and at Bal
4. Cin (7-4) - at SD, vs Ind, at Pit, vs Min, vs Bal - I think they go 3-2 with the losses being at SD and at Pit
5. KC (9-1) - vs SD, vs Den, at Was, at Oak, vs Ind, at SD - I think they go 5-1 with the loss being at SD
6. NYJ (5-5) - at Bal, vs Mia, vs Oak, at Car, vs Cle, at Mia - I think they go 3-3 with the losses being at Car, at Mia, and at Bal
7. Mia (5-5) - vs Car, at NYJ, at Pit, vs NE, at Buf, vs NYJ - I think they go 2-4 with the losses being vs NE, vs Car, at NYJ, and at Buf
 
Prediction:
1. Den (14-2) - wins tiebreaker over KC on strength of victory
2. Ind (11-5) - wins tiebreaker over NE on strength of victory
3. NE (11-5) 
4. Cin (10-6)
5. KC (14-2)
6. NYJ (8-8)
 
Wildcard:
NE beats NYJ
KC beats Cin
 
Divisional:
NE beats Ind
Den beats KC
 
Sets up an AFCCG with New England traveling to Denver.

 

[Number45forever]

The only sliver of hope I took from last night is that it's now going to be REALLY hard for the Pats to get the #1 seed.  This is a perfect year to get #2 since a #5 seed (KC/Denver) will likely win in round one and then visit the No. 1 seed (KC/Denver) in round two.  The #6 seed is likely going to be an 8-8 or 9-7 team, meaning the #3 seed will likely win.
 
Basically, from what I see, a #2 seed means you only need to face one of KC/Denver in the postseason.  Sucks that the one matchup will now be in KC or Denver, but what can you do.

 

[Dgilpin]

The Playoff Machine is now up on ESPN, http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[ivanvamp]

The only sliver of hope I took from last night is that it's now going to be REALLY hard for the Pats to get the #1 seed.  This is a perfect year to get #2 since a #5 seed (KC/Denver) will likely win in round one and then visit the No. 1 seed (KC/Denver) in round two.  The #6 seed is likely going to be an 8-8 or 9-7 team, meaning the #3 seed will likely win.
 
Basically, from what I see, a #2 seed means you only need to face one of KC/Denver in the postseason.  Sucks that the one matchup will now be in KC or Denver, but what can you do.

 
I could easily envision a scenario where KC gets the #1 seed and Denver is the #5 seed, but then Denver beats KC in the playoffs, meaning the #2 or #3 seed would have HFA for the AFCCG.  

 

[Stitch01]

The only sliver of hope I took from last night is that it's now going to be REALLY hard for the Pats to get the #1 seed.  This is a perfect year to get #2 since a #5 seed (KC/Denver) will likely win in round one and then visit the No. 1 seed (KC/Denver) in round two.  The #6 seed is likely going to be an 8-8 or 9-7 team, meaning the #3 seed will likely win.
 
Basically, from what I see, a #2 seed means you only need to face one of KC/Denver in the postseason.  Sucks that the one matchup will now be in KC or Denver, but what can you do.

Would still rather have the one seed and play at home.  I dont think playing at home vs KC is any harder than playing at home vs. Indy or the Bengals.  Was probably unlikely though, and the Pats would be positioned very well with the 2 seed.
 
Pats really could use an Indy loss this week.  Going to be hard to win tiebreak with the Colts if the Pats lose to Denver