NFL Playoffs & Seeding Probability

[Super Nomario]

So by my reckoning, if the Pats lose out they finish 10-6, with a 3-3 division record. If Miami wins out, they finish 10-6 with a 4-2 division record (including a split with the Pats). One more Pats win or Miami loss clinches the division for the Pats, but they sure lost a lot of breathing room today.
 
EDIT: I think if Baltimore also wins out, they'd finish 10-6 with a better conference record (8-4 vs NE's 7-5). So the Pats could miss the playoffs if they lose their last two.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

So by my reckoning, if the Pats lose out they finish 10-6, with a 3-3 division record. If Miami wins out, they finish 10-6 with a 4-2 division record (including a split with the Pats). One more Pats win or Miami loss clinches the division for the Pats, but they sure lost a lot of breathing room today.
 
EDIT: I think if Baltimore also wins out, they'd finish 10-6 with a better conference record (8-4 vs NE's 7-5). So the Pats could miss the playoffs if they lose their last two.

 
Miami:

• @ Bills
• vs Jets

Pats:

• @ Ravens
• vs Bills

Ravens:

• @ Lions
• vs Pats
• @ Bengals

 

[pdaj]

So by my reckoning, if the Pats lose out they finish 10-6, with a 3-3 division record. If Miami wins out, they finish 10-6 with a 4-2 division record (including a split with the Pats). One more Pats win or Miami loss clinches the division for the Pats, but they sure lost a lot of breathing room today.
 
EDIT: I think if Baltimore also wins out, they'd finish 10-6 with a better conference record (8-4 vs NE's 7-5). So the Pats could miss the playoffs if they lose their last two.

 
I don't think there's a chance the Pats lose out, but that miracle victory in CLE last week may end up proving to be bigger than first realized.

 

[Bellhorn]

So by my reckoning, if the Pats lose out they finish 10-6, with a 3-3 division record. If Miami wins out, they finish 10-6 with a 4-2 division record (including a split with the Pats). One more Pats win or Miami loss clinches the division for the Pats, but they sure lost a lot of breathing room today.
 
EDIT: I think if Baltimore also wins out, they'd finish 10-6 with a better conference record (8-4 vs NE's 7-5). So the Pats could miss the playoffs if they lose their last two.

Correct. Playoff spot is not officially clinched yet.

 

[Section15Box113]

Mindnumbingly, in one of the Miami-wins-out-while-we-lose-out scenarios, the Dolphins wind up with a bye.

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

With the Bengals trying hard to lose vs a usually-inept Steelers team, we're still in position for the #2 seed, right?  Assuming that score holds up (currently 30-14 PIT), if we win out, do we get the bye?

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

In that case, let it be said now as it has been well said by OFT for several years running:
 
Baltimore delenda est.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

It's true.

Murder them.

 

[ivanvamp]

So by my reckoning, if the Pats lose out they finish 10-6, with a 3-3 division record. If Miami wins out, they finish 10-6 with a 4-2 division record (including a split with the Pats). One more Pats win or Miami loss clinches the division for the Pats, but they sure lost a lot of breathing room today.
 
EDIT: I think if Baltimore also wins out, they'd finish 10-6 with a better conference record (8-4 vs NE's 7-5). So the Pats could miss the playoffs if they lose their last two.

 
As SeoulSoxFan points out, the Ravens have a very difficult 3-game stretch to end the season:  at Det, vs NE, at Cin.  They could win all three, of course, and tonight's game against Detroit is enormous.  I mean, let's assume they beat Detroit, then next week, Miami beats the Bills and then NE faces Baltimore, with the prospect of losing, which would then put the three teams in this scenario:
 
Mia vs NYJ
NE vs Buf
Bal at Cin
 
There's no doubt that a Mia W, Bal W, NE L scenario there is eminently possible, though you'd have to like NE at home against Buffalo.  You just hate for it to have to come down to that is all.

 

[wilked]

Pats blew an opportunity for breathing room, but shit happens. I can say this though. I am really looking forward to next week's game, almost as much as a 1st rd playoff. It nearly has the same weight / implication.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats are favorites to lock up a playoff spot by the end of today and will be huge favorites to beat the Bills, so Im still focusing on seeding at this point.
 
Bengals win was huge last night.  Winning out gets the Pats the two seed obviously, but the Pats actually get a bye a reasonable percentage of the time by just beating Buffalo.
 
KC is opening -5 to -6 at home against the Colts.  They still have to go all out because they still have a slim chance at homefield if Denver gets upset on the road one of the next two weeks.  Colts vs Jaguars in the finale, and the Colts win a tiebreak at 11-5, so a Colts win here means the Pats have to win out to get the bye.
 
Bengals are big favorites at home against the Vikings next week, but play the Ravens at home in the finale.  For this game to matter for the Pats, the Ravens should have something to play for heading into the finale.
 
Eyeballing it, I think the Pats get the bye somewhere just north of 1/3 of the time if they just beat the Bills at home as a big favorite, which should give them the bye something a tick south of 50% of the time.
 
So we want to root for the Vikings, Texans, and Chiefs this weekend.  If you knew the Pats were going to win you might root for the Colts to knock of the Chiefs to increase 1 seed chances, but with the Chiefs likely underdogs at San Diego the following week and with Denver very unlikely to lose again it might still be correct to root for the Chiefs and improve seeding under scenarios where the Pats win the division at 10-6 (although realistically speaking, the Pats are fucked at that point anyways)
 
EDIT: Should be rooting for the Bills too obviously.  Opening 3 point dogs at home with extra juice to take the Bills.  Broncos -10.5 @ Houston, Cinn 8.5 point home favorites.  Pats opening 1-1.5 point dogs.

 

[Stitch01]

Football Outsiders has the Pats at 13.4% for the 1 seed, 46.4% seed for the two seed.  Overstated somewhat with no Gronk, but still a real good shot at a bye.  Still 97.6% to win the division.
 
They have Miami close to 75% to make the playoffs with the fighting Flacco's large dogs to advance to the postseason given a tough schedule.
 
NFC South now a coin flip with the Saints losing yesterday.  Eagles a large favorite to win the East.
 
Jets still alive!
 
Pats third in Super Bowl equity at 11.4%  I think that's high, and doesnt adjust for Gronk, but probably only 3 or 4 teams have a better chance of winning the title than the Pats (partially because everyone from the other conference likely has to travel through Seattle).  FO has the Pats 20-50 times more likely to win the Super Bowl than the fringe six seed teams like the Ravens and Dolphins
 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 

[Briz]

Football Outsiders has the Pats at 13.4% for the 1 seed, 46.4% seed for the two seed.  Overstated somewhat with no Gronk, but still a real good shot at a bye.  Still 97.6% to win the division.
 
They have Miami close to 75% to make the playoffs with the fighting Flacco's large dogs to advance to the postseason given a tough schedule.
 
NFC South now a coin flip with the Saints losing yesterday.  Eagles a large favorite to win the East.
 
Jets still alive!
 
Pats third in Super Bowl equity at 11.4%  I think that's high, and doesnt adjust for Gronk, but probably only 3 or 4 teams have a better chance of winning the title than the Pats (partially because everyone from the other conference likely has to travel through Seattle).  FO has the Pats 20-50 times more likely to win the Super Bowl than the fringe six seed teams like the Ravens and Dolphins
 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

 
Based on those odds, FO must have Det beating Balt tonight.  A 7-6 Det has better odds for the playoffs than an 8-6 Chi.  DVOA supports this as well:  Det is ranked 12th (3.5% DVOA) and Balt is ranked 21st @ -6.6%.  Interestingly, Chi is ranked 9th.
 
I think this also explains why Mia is now 71% for that 6 seed.  The sims expect Mia to be the only 8-6 team in the AFC after tonight.
 
I'm very interested to see the impact of the game tonight.

 

[DanoooME]

Updating the NFC this week
 
Seattle 12-2
New Orleans 10-4
Philadelphia 8-6 
Chicago 8-6
Carolina 10-4 
San Francisco 10-4
 
Arizona 9-5 (wild card only)
 
Green Bay 7-6-1 (division only)
Detroit 7-7 (division only)
Dallas 7-7 (division only)
 
Everybody else is officially eliminated.
 
Games remaining for potential top seeds (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Seattle - Ariz, StL (.536)
New Orleans - @Car, vs TB (.500)
Carolina - NO, @Atl (.500)
San Francisco - Atl, @Ariz (.464)
 
Games remaining for the fascinating NFC North race (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Detroit -  NYG, @Min (.339)
Chicago - @Phi, GB (.554)
Green Bay - Pit, @Chi (.500)
 
Games remaining for the NFC East race  (with total opposition winning percentage in parentheses):
 
Philly - Chi, @Dal (.536)
Dallas - @Wash, Phi (.393)
 
And Arizona's schedule, just to round out the field: @Sea, vs. SF (.786 WPct - Ouch)
 
Seattle's magic number to clinch the division as well as the overall #1 seed is 1.  49ers are the only team that can catch them.  Seattle wins H2H tiebreakers over New Orleans and Carolina.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats alive for all six seeds and missing the playoffs with two weeks left

Edit bah, can't get the five seed

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

ESPN has a helpful website here:  http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine
 
According to the website, apparently, if MIA, BAL, CIN, IND, and NE all end up at 10-6, NE will be on the outside looking in and MIA will the 2nd seed. 
 
Assuming there are no injuries, it probably won't happen but I was curious.

 

[bougrj1]

Oddly enough - if Miami wins both of their games, they are in. I would have thought they still need some help but they control their own destiny. Cincy could very well be on the outside looking in (or NE if they lose to Buffalo).

 

[DJnVa]

A week from controlling our own destiny for the #1 seed to a possibility of not making it at all?
 
Fun.

 

[Stitch01]

The chances of not making at all are still super slim.  Six things have to happen for the Pats to miss the playoffs including losing to Buffalo at home and the Ravens winning on the road against the Bengals.  Even if the worst happens this week, the Pats are going to be something like 90% to make the playoffs going into the final weekend barring Brady getting injured.
 
Nothing is clinched until it is clinched, but its still super, super, super, super unlikely the Pats are missing the playoffs.

 

[ivanvamp]

Oddly enough - if Miami wins both of their games, they are in. I would have thought they still need some help but they control their own destiny. Cincy could very well be on the outside looking in (or NE if they lose to Buffalo).

 
How is that possible?  
 
Miami wins 2, finishes 10-6.
Baltimore wins 2, finishes 10-6, owns the tiebreaker over Miami.
Cincy goes 1-1, finishes 10-6, loses divisional tiebreaker to Baltimore.
NE goes 1-1, finishes 11-5, wins AFCE.
 
So I guess in this scenario, Miami wins the head-to-head tiebreaker against Cincy, due to their 22-20 win earlier in the year.  Wow, fascinating!
 
And to be honest, this isn't at ALL a crazy scenario.  Let's say that Indy goes 1-1 and finishes at 10-6.  The AFC seeds would be:
 
1. Denver
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Indianapolis
5. Kansas City
6. Miami
 
So Miami at Baltimore, KC at Indy.  KC probably wins at Indy and Baltimore wins against Miami.  The Pats would then host Baltimore (sigh) and Denver gets KC again.

 

[Stitch01]

I would sign up for that scenario in a cocaine heartbeat.

 

[RedOctober3829]

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England clinches AFC East division with:
1) NE win or tie OR
2) MIA loss or tie
 
New England clinches a first-round bye with:
1) NE win + CIN loss or tie + IND loss or tie OR
2) NE tie + CIN loss + IND loss
 
New England clinches a playoff spot with:
1) CIN loss or tie
 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000299945/article/nfl-playoff-scenarios-for-week-16?campaign=Twitter_atl

 

[Briz]

Updated odds after MNF from FO:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
 
Pats make the playoffs 99.3% of the time and have a bye 58% of the time.  46% of the time they do so as the #2 seed and 12% of the time as the #1.  The remainder of their odds is 30% for #3, 10% for #4 and 2% as #6.  The #5 seed is 100% owned by the AFC west now.  50% of the time they make the AFCCG, 25% they make the SB and 11% of the time they win the whole thing.
 
I’ve included Mia and Balt into the 2-4 seed scenarios based on the discussion.
 
Conference seeding breakdown:
 
AFC
1)      Den 63%; KC 24%; NE 12%
2)      NE 46%; Cin 36%; Den 10%; Indy 3%; Bal 2%; Mia 1%
3)      Cinci 44%; NE 30%; Indy 13%; Balt 11%; Mia 2%
4)      Indy 84%; NE 10%; Cinci 3%; Balt 3%; Mia 0.3%
5)      KC 74%; Den 26%
6)      Mia 59%; Balt 24%; Cinci 11%; SD 3%; NE 2%
 
NFC
1)      Sea 98%; Car, SF and NO all between 0.5-0.8%
2)      NO 51%; Car 48%
3)      Phi 50%; Chi 36%; GB 9%; Det 4%; Dal 1%
4)      Dal 28%; Chi 25%; Phi 21%; Det 16%; GB 10%
5)      SF 71%; Car 14%; NO 11%; Ari 3%
6)      NO 36%; Car 30%; SF 25%; Ari 8%
 
Team     Conf App             Conf Win             SB Win
 
SEA        66.2%                    43.2%                    25.8%
DEN       59.7%                    36.1%                    17.8%
NE          50.4%                    24.7%                    11.3%
CAR        43.3%                    20.3%                    10.9%
KC           32.9%                    17.4%                    8.0%
NO         40.7%                    16.6%                    7.9%
CIN         36.0%                    15.6%                    6.6%
SF           20.6%                    9.4%                      5.1%
PHI         12.0%                    4.6%                      2.0%
CHI         9.6%                      3.6%                      1.5%
IND        10.7%                    3.2%                      1.0%

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000299945/article/nfl-playoff-scenarios-for-week-16?campaign=Twitter_atl

 
I don't believe this is correct.  If NE, Cinci, BAL, IND, and MIA all finish 10-6 (meaning Cinci has lost once), then NE is out - at least according to ESPN playoff machine above.

 

[Stitch01]

If the Bengals lose this week, then they are 9-6.  The best Baltimore can be is 9-6.  Those two teams play in Week 17, so one of them cant finish 10-6.  If Miami and the Pats tie at 10-6, the Dolphins win the East.  That leaves the Pats as the 2nd wild card since none of the other non-division winners besides KC can get to 10 wins.  So a Bengal loss this week puts the Pats in the playoffs.
 
In week 17, a Bengals win actually clinches the playoff berth because it would prevent Baltimore from finishing 10-6.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If the Bengals lose this week, then they are 9-6.  The best Baltimore can be is 9-6.  Those two teams play in Week 17, so one of them cant finish 10-6.  If Miami and the Pats tie at 10-6, the Dolphins win the East.  That leaves the Pats as the 2nd wild card since none of the other non-division winners besides KC can get to 10 wins.  So a Bengal loss this week puts the Pats in the playoffs.
 
In week 17, a Bengals win actually clinches the playoff berth because it would prevent Baltimore from finishing 10-6.

 
I thought the post was referring to one Bengal loss over the rest of the season, not a Bengal lost next week.  I agree that a Bengal loss in week 16 clinches for Pats.  Obviously, a Bengal loss in week 17 does not.

 

[tims4wins]

Barnwell discusses home field advantage here: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10170641/bill-barnwell-best-home-field-advantages
 
Interesting article, better than some of his recent work IMO. But my favorite part was the chart showing the home and road point differential since 2002. The Patriots average +7.2 points in road games during this time frame. For reference, only 2 teams have a better point differential AT HOME during this time frame. That is absolutely insane. Moreover, only 5 teams have a positive point differential on the road during this time, with the highest being the Steelers at 2.0. Again, the Pats are at 7.2. That means they are nearly 3 standard deviations above the mean. Simply unreal. Talk about a dynasty.

 

[Stitch01]

 
I thought the post was referring to one Bengal loss over the rest of the season, not a Bengal lost next week.  I agree that a Bengal loss in week 16 clinches for Pats.  Obviously, a Bengal loss in week 17 does not.

That Ravens/Bengals game is going to be wierd if the Pats dont win this week.  If the Pats beat Buffalo and the Colts lose to KC this week, a Ravens win would give the Pats the 2 seed.  If the Pats lose to Buffalo, they might need the Bengals to win to make the playoffs. 

 

[dynomite]

If the Pats lose to Buffalo, they might need the Bengals to win to make the playoffs. 

If the Pats lose to Buffalo at home with the season on the line, they don't deserve to make the playoffs. Or get a paycheck.

That said, yes, if the Pats lose on Sunday they need to root for the Ravens the following week. Better yet, they could whup up on the Ravens in Baltimore and don their hats & t-shirts on their field.

 

[wilked]

So if Pats lose today, they need both CIN and IND to lose next week to get a bye.  Not very likely...
 
Need this win

 

[dynomite]

Holy shit. If the Dolphins and Ravens both finish 9-7 the Dolphins could be the #6 seed... despite the Ravens 26-23 H2H win in Miami in October, because the Chargers might ALSO be 9-7.

What a gut punch for Ravens fans today.

 

[axx]

As they mentioned in the Broadcast, Miami wins the 3-way if it also involves San Diego... Baltimore wins otherwise. I think this is because of the Conference Record.

 

[Stitch01]

Buffalo is going to be annoying this week if Vereen and McCourty cant go.
 
Lets go Raiders!

 

[alydar]

Been drinking a bit so hopefully someone more sober can clarify... does this mean that, for the #6 seed, no one is "win and in"?  I don't recall that ever happening before (which is probably more an indication of my recollection ability than reality, but still...)

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Been drinking a bit so hopefully someone more sober can clarify... does this mean that, for the #6 seed, no one is "win and in"?  I don't recall that ever happening before (which is probably more an indication of my recollection ability than reality, but still...)

Correct. Everyone needs some help.

 

[axx]

The way I understand it is this:
 
If SD wins, Miami gets in if they win. If they lose and Baltimore wins, Balt is in. If M+B lose, SD is in.
If SD loses, Balt gets in if they win. If they lose and Miami wins, Miami is in. If they all 3 lose, Pittsburgh can get in if they win.

 

[shawnrbu]

Miami must have the best odds.  They have the second easiest opponent (Jets) and have two paths to earning the spot with a win (Baltimore loss/tie or San Diego win).
 
I would think the NFL pushes Dolphins/Jets to 4 to ensure the wild card spot is not clinched in the 1 PM window. Pats, Bengals and Colts should all play at the same time at 1.
 
Edit: The Chargers must be regretting losing to the 3 worst teams in the NFL (Texans, Redskins and Raiders).  The first two were particularly painful since San Diego blew both those games. 

 

[alydar]

For the wild card, only currently-scheduled 4pm game that potentially matters is KC / SD (and you have to imagine that Dallas - Philly will be flexed to Sunday night).  KC is playing for nothing as they are locked into the #5.  

 

[Euclis20]

The way I understand it is this:
 
If SD wins, Miami gets in if they win. If they lose and Baltimore wins, Balt is in. If M+B lose, SD is in.
If SD loses, Balt gets in if they win. If they lose and Miami wins, Miami is in. If they all 3 lose, Pittsburgh can get in if they win.

 
I feel like I'm missing something obvious because this is what everyone says, but why is this the case?  How does Pittsburgh still have a shot?  In this scenario, Baltimore would be eliminated first (Pittsburgh would have the better division record), leaving SD/MIA/PIT.  There is no head to head sweep, so it goes to conference record...giving the win to Miami (they'd have a 7-5 conference record, to 6-6 for San Diego and Pittsburgh).  ?
 
*edit-There is a head to head sweep:  Miami beat both San Diego and Pittsburgh.  Which doesn't answer my question, how do the Steelers still have a chance?
 
*2nd edit-Got my answer.  If the Jets win, they would finish 2nd in the division, beating Miami via the division tiebreaker.  Then it's NYJ/SD/PIT.  No head to head sweep, and Pittsburgh would take the 6th spot with the superior conference record.  Thanks to all that answered.

 

[Stitch01]

Jets tie Miami and win the divisional tiebreaker. That's why a Browns win today would have knocked out Pitt. Then Pitt wins tiebreak

 

[shawnrbu]

The Jets would knock out the Dolphins with a better division record and apparently the Steelers win the 3-way tie with the Jets and Chargers.

 

[Jnai]

 
I feel like I'm missing something obvious because this is what everyone says, but why is this the case?  How does Pittsburgh still have a shot?  In this scenario, Baltimore would be eliminated first (Pittsburgh would have the better division record), leaving SD/MIA/PIT.  There is no head to head sweep, so it goes to conference record...giving the win to Miami (they'd have a 7-5 conference record, to 6-6 for San Diego and Pittsburgh).  ?
 
*edit-There is a head to head sweep:  Miami beat both San Diego and Pittsburgh.  Which doesn't answer my question, how do the Steelers still have a chance?

 
The Jets would have to beat Miami.
 
6th Seed - Pittsburgh
Wins tie break over NY Jets and San Diego based on best win percentage in conference games. Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Miami (NY Jets wins tie break over Miami based on best win percentage in division games). Division tie break was initially used to eliminate Baltimore (Pittsburgh wins tie break over Baltimore based on best win percentage in division games).

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

So what game looks like the Sunday Night "win-and-you're-in" quasi-playoff game next week?  GB-CHI seems to be a game where the winner gets the 3- or 4-seed and the loser is out, but the same could be said about PHI-DAL, and SF-ARI is also decisive for SF's seeding and ARI's shot at the 6-seed (though they need NO to lose as well).

 

[mascho]

So what game looks like the Sunday Night "win-and-you're-in" quasi-playoff game next week?  GB-CHI seems to be a game where the winner gets the 3- or 4-seed and the loser is out, but the same could be said about PHI-DAL, and SF-ARI is also decisive for SF's seeding and ARI's shot at the 6-seed (though they need NO to lose as well).

It will be PHL/DAL.  #4 and 5 media markets.  

 

[Euclis20]

So what game looks like the Sunday Night "win-and-you're-in" quasi-playoff game next week?  GB-CHI seems to be a game where the winner gets the 3- or 4-seed and the loser is out, but the same could be said about PHI-DAL, and SF-ARI is also decisive for SF's seeding and ARI's shot at the 6-seed (though they need NO to lose as well).

 
They've already announced it will be Phi/Dal. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

I would think the NFL pushes Dolphins/Jets to 4 to ensure the wild card spot is not clinched in the 1 PM window. Pats, Bengals and Colts should all play at the same time at 1.

 
Pats-Bills has been flexed to later in the afternoon to a 4pm time slot.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If SF wins out and Seattle loses, SF wins the division and Seattle is a WC. Crazy.

 

[amarshal2]

If SF wins out and Seattle loses, SF wins the division and Seattle is a WC. Crazy.


SF also hasn't technically clinched the playoffs just yet. They can still be a 1 seed or watching from home.

 

[dynomite]

In other news, the Arizona Cardinals are on pace to become the first 11-5 team to miss the playoffs since the 2008 Patriots.

That dubious distinction (combined with NFC Wild Card Weekend likely featuring two 11-5 teams on the road against two teams with inferior records) will not go unnoticed. Prepare yourselves for a lot of hand wringing and calls for playoff expansion and/or an end to the Division system altogether.

(By way of explanation: the Cardinals are 10-5. If the 49ers win tomorrow night (vs.ATL) and the Saints win next week (vs.TB), the Cardinals will lose the tiebreaker to both due to Division Win %.)

 

[swiftaw]

Prepare yourselves for a lot of hand wringing and calls for playoff expansion and/or an end to the Division system altogether


I'd actually like to see the end of the Conference system. 8 divisions, winner of each makes the playoffs plus 4 wild cards, seeded 1 through 12.