Ok this is kind of all over the map but here are a couple points:
1.) My whole point is that _if_ Belichick thinks there's an average QB available at 15 he might take that guy over a significantly better player at another position. I have no idea whether Jones or someone else is that guy. If he thinks Mac Jones kind of sucks and some tackle is way better, I assume he picks the tackle.
2.) It's irrelevant to me that the player the pats are picking at 15 would be the fourth or fifth QB draft. Maybe the other players are all good or maybe somebody pick Trubisky instead of Watson or Mahomes. All that matters is your evaluation.
3.) You're vastly underestimating the value of an average NFL QB. Using QBR that's someone like Matt Ryan or Stafford or Kirk Cousins or Bridgewater or Phil Rivers: those players don't grow in trees--they get paid 20 million a year in free agency.
4.) You're vastly overestimating how good the talent pool is at 15. Ryan Shazier, Kenny Vaccaro, Bruce irvin, Mike Pouncey, Jason Pierre Paul, Melvin Gordon, Malik Hooker, Kolton Miller, Corey Coleman--you might get a very good player but you're far from sure of getting an impact player.
There is a lot to unpack here.
Personally when I look at QB I look at two separate things: 1 - Physical Traits and 2 - Mental Traits. I also look at level of competition, scheme, who he played with and against.
When I look at Trask and Jones I see above average mental traits. Maybe even borderline good mental traits. They definitely meet the requirements you need mentally to be an NFL thrower. I look then at physical traits for these two guys. I see two duds. Sure Mac Jones has above average accuracy but his arm sucks. He isn't particularly mobile. The way you project going forward is this: if a guy is highly mobile in college he will be mobile in the NFL. If a guy is barely mobile in college he isn't going to be mobile in the NFL. So when you see Mac Jones being able to scramble occasionally you need to project that he won't be mobile by NFL standards. What does mobile even mean? Mobile to me is a guy like Mahomes or Russ Wilson. They can run around behind the LOS and make plays. They can scramble for chunk yards. We're not talking dual-threat here just mobility. If you aren't mobile you need to have elite pocket presence if you want to be a traditional pocket passer in today's NFL. Brady has that. Mac Jones does not. Trask does not. There are degrees of mobility too. Like Matt Stafford can probably do bootlegs and roll-outs but no one is calling him mobile, same for Matt Ryan. Being immobile isn't an auto-disqualify but it takes away from the ways you can win. You want as many ways to win as possible.
You can win with average QBs. SF was one pass away from that last year. Flacco won one. Manning's corpse won one. Foles won one. When you look at the teams who won with a mediocre QB they were stacked all over the roster. It's hard to do that. It's impossible to do that consistently.
If you listen to the analytics on it and by that I mean guys who have looked at playoff success as well as teams who have been in the playoffs the last decade they all tell you the same thing: the most consistent way to make the playoffs is to have an elite QB. The most consistent way to get to a Super Bowl is to have an elite QB. The most consistent way to win a Super Bowl is to have an elite QB. Or if we don't want to use elite because it's an amorphous term - then how about a top 10 QB in the league? You (universal you) get the spirit of what I am trying to say, I hope.
So let's go back to Trask and Mac Jones. These guys both have above average to good mental traits. They have above average to good pocket presence. Neither of those traits are at elite levels. Could they get there? Yeah sure maybe - but you have to put all your eggs in those baskets and there is no guarantee they develop enough to be an above average starter. It is much easier for a QB like Dwayne Haskins to look good in college. It's a lot easier for a QB like Mac Jones or Dwayne Haskins to look like they are mobile in college. It's a mirage though and you have to be able to compartmentalize it and what it takes for that trait to work in the NFL. Mac Jones and Kyle Trask have a ceiling of Kirk Cousins. I would argue though Cousins has a more powerful arm than either of them. I also look at who they were surrounded with.
So, who surrounded Trask and Jones this year? Well, Jones was behind an offensive line of guys who have day 1 or 2 tape. He had all day to throw usually. He also had Sark as his OC who had one of the best years as a coordinator we have seen. He had a Joe Brady 2019 type of year. Who was Mac Jones throwing to? For some of the year 2 first round WR talents in Smith and Waddle and a future one in Metchie. He also had a first round caliber RB who was an excellent receiver. Quick shoutout to my RB1 and a guy I love in Najee Harris. #BEAST! Trask meanwhile had Toney and Pitts who should also be first round targets, and Trevon Grimes who is probably a day 3 or UDFA guy but who is definitely a talented collegiate athlete and might have an NFL career. Trask's OL wasn't as good but he still has some NFL caliber talent there. I also will note that both guys played in the SEC and against a good level of competition. Mac Jones had the best QB situation in all of college FB this year. If you look at his traits vs production going forward you (again universal) would be not as bullish on him. Trask, when he had to play with backup caliber receivers looked AWFUL in his lone bowl game this year. Now you don't want to judge too much based on one bowl game but I would have it as a footnote that when his support dipped so did he... dramatically.
Back to the physical traits. Sometimes we overrate physical traits. For me
if a guy doesn't have an NFL minimum mental game and mental traits I don't give a flying pickup truck off a cliff what his physical tools are. I might take him day 3 if I think I can coach up those mental traits but a lot of the time you either have them or you don't. I am looking at you, Jamie Newman. However, if a guy has sufficient mental traits and a mental game to play in the NFL I am very interested in what his physical toolset is.
1) Accuracy - can he make a throw accurately - if so does he have a heat map or can he make all throws accurately? Without accuracy nothing else really matters.
2) Arm Strength - what is his raw power? Arm strength helps someone on throws across the field, outside the numbers, under duress, and it also is a check for when a guy only notices a WR getting open later. Aaron Rodgers can take 0.5-1 second longer to process and make a throw than a guy with a weak arm who needs to make the read and throw sooner.
3) Arm touch - this is like your ability to know how hard, soft, arch needed on balls, etc. Do you know what kind of touch you need to place on the ball to get it there on time and accurately?
4) Mobility - three types: 1) pocket passer, 2) mobile passer, 3) true dual-threat. I think I explained this earlier. Obviously a guy who is a true dual-threat can change how defenses have to play you which can open up more passing lanes. That's just keeping it simple.
5) Can you create out of structure and how you perform under pressure - this involves both mental and physical skills but I am putting it here. In structure means you have a clean pocket and can go through the progressions vs out of structure is the play breaks down and you have to make create by scrambling or stepping up in the pocket or whatever.
When I look at Trask and Jones I see #1 and 3 are ok with exceptions being deep outs but 2, 4, 5 are all deficient.
If I wanted to compare to Wilson, Fields and Lance I can do that but I will do that in a separate post.
Quick spoiler: Wilson, Fields, and Lance all have the mental traits needed at various levels AND they have some pretty nice physical tool sets. I will get more into that sometime later tonight.