No arb hearing for Devers, 2023 salary is set

E5 Yaz

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All Passan said was that it shows they were talking. It's not like he was expressing optimism about the potential of a long-term deal
 

epraz

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At the very least, it's good that they avoided an arbitration hearing where the Red Sox would be incentivized to downplay Devers' value. That couldn't have helped their long-term negotiations.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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How often do teams and players actually go to arbitration anyway? Seems like its pretty par for the course for them to reach an agreement on this. Not sure why that would signal anything meaningful about a 10 year contract or whatever its going to take to sign Raffy.
 

Yaz4Ever

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As I've said multiple times, I hope they make their best offer for a long-term deal and either sign or trade him asap. I would hate to see him go, but it's a business and I get that. Like @epraz said, at least they avoided what could've been an unpleasant arbitration, so hopefully that bodes well
 

Max Power

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As I've said multiple times, I hope they make their best offer for a long-term deal and either sign or trade him asap. I would hate to see him go, but it's a business and I get that. Like @epraz said, at least they avoided what could've been an unpleasant arbitration, so hopefully that bodes well
That's still a terrible idea. One year of Devers is unlikely to bring back any amazing value. Might as well enjoy watching him for another year and see what happens after the season.

The $17.5 million seems a little light. Usually final year arb deals are close to free agent contracts. Maybe Devers really is willing to settle for $25 million a year over a 10+ year agreement.
 

Yaz4Ever

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That's still a terrible idea. One year of Devers is unlikely to bring back any amazing value. Might as well enjoy watching him for another year and see what happens after the season.

The $17.5 million seems a little light. Usually final year arb deals are close to free agent contracts. Maybe Devers really is willing to settle for $25 million a year over a 10+ year agreement.
It's a lot better than what we'd get in return for him turning down a QO. Ideally, we keep him. If that fails to happen, we need to get the most we can and that happens now.
 

Max Power

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It's a lot better than what we'd get in return for him turning down a QO. Ideally, we keep him. If that fails to happen, we need to get the most we can and that happens now.
You already want to throw in the towel on 2023? This season has value, too.
 

jon abbey

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The $17.5 million seems a little light. Usually final year arb deals are close to free agent contracts.
Is that true? Judge signed for $19M last year before getting 9/360. Correa signed for just $11.7M in his final year with HOU in 2021.
 

Yaz4Ever

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You already want to throw in the towel on 2023? This season has value, too.
No, but without him there's very little offense and a questionable health for the rotation. My point was simply that if we can't sign him, we need to tear off the band-aid of losing him now and get the best return we can. He's worth more to the Mets/Giants/etc now before the season begins.

Again, ideally, we keep him and build around him.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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The ESPN alert heading on my phone appeared purposely misleading to provide maximum excitement: "MLB Free Agency Alert". Insinuating Devers signed a deal affecting his FREE AGENT years.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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How often do teams and players actually go to arbitration anyway? Seems like its pretty par for the course for them to reach an agreement on this. Not sure why that would signal anything meaningful about a 10 year contract or whatever its going to take to sign Raffy.
The Sox went to arbitration with Mookie in his first eligible year. He was awarded $10.5 mil, with the Sox arguing for $7.5 mil. Obviously there were other factors in him leaving but I can’t imagine that creating an adversarial situation with your own players creates warm and fuzzy feelings.
 

Max Power

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Is that true? Judge signed for $19M last year before getting 9/360. Correa signed for just $11.7M in his final year with HOU in 2021.
Mookie and Otani got around $30 million. Maybe those final year deals are really variable and have no bearing on the free agent year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is that true? Judge signed for $19M last year before getting 9/360. Correa signed for just $11.7M in his final year with HOU in 2021.
It might have been true years ago but it's rarely ever the case with the superstar contracts like Judge or what we presume Devers will get. $17.5M is right in the ballpark where all the payroll trackers (Cot's, Spotrac, MLBTR) were estimating.

How often do teams and players actually go to arbitration anyway?
If I'm reading Spotrac correctly, there were 30 cases determined by arbitration last off-season, and 17 the year before. So it seems to vary year to year.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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This will take his career earnings to about $34 million. Extensions really need to happen before the final arb year.

This is basically set for life money already. It leaves so little incentive for signing an extension now. There is always the underlying incentive -- Pedroia like injury and possible regression. But at $34 million, it's easy to take a chance on yourself. Yes, an extension would mean a significant pay raise for 2023, but really -- who is going to make a decision based on a raise from 17 to 30 million for one year when $300+ million is out there?

tl;dr -- It's going to take free agent money sign Devers, as we all already knew.
 

mikcou

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Is that true? Judge signed for $19M last year before getting 9/360. Correa signed for just $11.7M in his final year with HOU in 2021.
At one point, people spoke of 40%/70%/90% for arb1-3. To the extent that was ever accurate, it hasnt been for like 10 years with maybe the notable exception of Mookie who got his 1/27 for 2020.

It did see more accurate a decade ago; the recent ones haven't been close.
 

simplicio

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That's still a terrible idea. One year of Devers is unlikely to bring back any amazing value. Might as well enjoy watching him for another year and see what happens after the season.

The $17.5 million seems a little light. Usually final year arb deals are close to free agent contracts. Maybe Devers really is willing to settle for $25 million a year over a 10+ year agreement.
Cots had him projected at 16.5.
 

Ale Xander

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This just means he's gonna indeed get $35 AAV and not $33, based on Judge/Correa etc, for his FA contract, right?

COTS seems to be consistently on the low side.
 

BoSox Rule

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Mookie and Otani got around $30 million. Maybe those final year deals are really variable and have no bearing on the free agent year.
Mookie and Ohtani had MVP’s. I know people are pissed about Betts and Bogaerts and the seeming lack of a plan in replacing these players but Devers isn’t in the Trout Mookie Ohtani class. He’s basically a 5 win player that people want to pay like a 7-9 win player that come less than you think.
And if he turns into a 2.5 win player it will go from “why are are we giving Devers $30 a year and now we can’t pay X or Y just like people I always said we shouldn’t do this contract !”
 

mikcou

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Mookie and Ohtani had MVP’s. I know people are pissed about Betts and Bogaerts and the seeming lack of a plan in replacing these players but Devers isn’t in the Trout Mookie Ohtani class. He’s basically a 5 win player that people want to pay like a 7-9 win player that come less than you think.
And if he turns into a 2.5 win player it will go from “why are are we giving Devers $30 a year and now we can’t pay X or Y just like people I always said we shouldn’t do this contract !”
Is anyone suggesting paying him like a 7-9 win player? Judge just got 9/360 and has 1 9+ win season in his career and will be 31. The only guy who has been a consistent 8 win player and got a deal in his mid 20s was Mike Trout who signed a 12/425 before the 2019 season. Beyond the fact that Trout would almost certain get closer to $500M four years later, I havent seen anyone suggest anything close to 12/425 on this site. Similarily Ohtani is going to get mid 400s.

Mid 300s isn't the market for 8-10 win players. Its the market for young 5-6 win players who still have the upside of all of their prime years left. Trea Turner is a 30 year old 5-6 win player who just got $300M on an 11 year deal. Xander 280M.

Maybe I missed it, but I definitely havent seen anyone suggesting $400+ for Devers - just a lot of 11-12 year $325-350M type deals. You may still not want to do it, but its not at all accurate to classify that amount as a 8-9 win player amount because it just isnt.
 

Fishy1

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Is anyone suggesting paying him like a 7-9 win player? Judge just got 9/360 and has 1 9+ win season in his career and will be 31. The only guy who has been a consistent 8 win player and got a deal in his mid 20s was Mike Trout who signed a 12/425 before the 2019 season. Beyond the fact that Trout would almost certain get closer to $500M four years later, I havent seen anyone suggest anything close to 12/425 on this site. Similarily Ohtani is going to get mid 400s.

Mid 300s isn't the market for 8-10 win players. Its the market for young 5-6 win players who still have the upside of all of their prime years left. Trea Turner is a 30 year old 5-6 win player who just got $300M on an 11 year deal. Xander 280M.

Maybe I missed it, but I definitely havent seen anyone suggesting $400+ for Devers - just a lot of 11-12 year $325-350M type deals. You may still not want to do it, but its not at all accurate to classify that amount as a 8-9 win player amount because it just isnt.
This has been rehashed several times in this thread, but Turner and Xander both got those contracts at age 30. I don't think they have the upside of most of their prime left, on the contrary, they may have some upside on offense, and they certainly have downside as SS past age 30. Those contracts will carry them until they're forty. San Diego will almost certainly regret the back-end of that deal.

Devers is substantially younger than both of them. The question with Devers is if you want to pay a 5 win player (with upside for more) 30 million a year through his age 35 or 36 season at around the same value as those other guys, given that he's younger than any of them, or if he's going to command even more than they did because he's younger with more upside ahead of him - potentially. Plus, if he has a huge contract year, that could alter the negotiations.

Don't mean to nitpick, I think it's just a different scenario, and given how unexpectedly huge some of these contracts were, a similar thing might happen with Devers.
 

simplicio

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A contrasting data point is Austin Riley's 10/212 in his age 26 season, but that was a) signed midway through his Arb 1 season, b) signed prior to this bananas FA market and c) an Atlanta deal.
 

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Off topic: Channel 38 lost the rights to The Stooges for the first time since 1971. From reports, the syndicator simply would not extend/renew the contract.
Does anyone else remember watching the Stooges in the mid-70's where 38 would run a 2-3 minute short between the 1st and 2nd episodes (3 eps in an hour) with Bobby Orr giving hockey tips?
 

mikcou

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This has been rehashed several times in this thread, but Turner and Xander both got those contracts at age 30. I don't think they have the upside of most of their prime left, on the contrary, they may have some upside on offense, and they certainly have downside as SS past age 30. Those contracts will carry them until they're forty. San Diego will almost certainly regret the back-end of that deal.

Devers is substantially younger than both of them. The question with Devers is if you want to pay a 5 win player (with upside for more) 30 million a year through his age 35 or 36 season at around the same value as those other guys, given that he's younger than any of them, or if he's going to command even more than they did because he's younger with more upside ahead of him - potentially. Plus, if he has a huge contract year, that could alter the negotiations.

Don't mean to nitpick, I think it's just a different scenario, and given how unexpectedly huge some of these contracts were, a similar thing might happen with Devers.
I agree - it goes to the point that the mid 300s isnt 7-9 win territory for a mid 20s guy - its consistent 4.5-6 win guys. I may not have been completely clear about that, but the idea was that guys who are 5 win players got ~300M and were already 30. A 26 year old is going to be expected to get a fair amount more than that.

A contrasting data point is Austin Riley's 10/212 in his age 26 season, but that was a) signed midway through his Arb 1 season, b) signed prior to this bananas FA market and c) an Atlanta deal.
To be clear, he was a super 2 - not a traditional arb1 guy so he had three more years of arb left that the contract covers. Assuming he would have received $35M or so for his arbitration years his free agent years were valued at $25M a year then you get into your point about it being signed prior to this market where valuations are up 10%+. Teams also typically expect some discount on the "free agent years" they are buying in an long term early arbitration extension.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This has been rehashed several times in this thread, but Turner and Xander both got those contracts at age 30. I don't think they have the upside of most of their prime left, on the contrary, they may have some upside on offense, and they certainly have downside as SS past age 30. Those contracts will carry them until they're forty. San Diego will almost certainly regret the back-end of that deal.

Devers is substantially younger than both of them. The question with Devers is if you want to pay a 5 win player (with upside for more) 30 million a year through his age 35 or 36 season at around the same value as those other guys, given that he's younger than any of them, or if he's going to command even more than they did because he's younger with more upside ahead of him - potentially. Plus, if he has a huge contract year, that could alter the negotiations.

Don't mean to nitpick, I think it's just a different scenario, and given how unexpectedly huge some of these contracts were, a similar thing might happen with Devers.
I think the problem here is that it seems unlikely that the player will accept a deal that has the contract expiring when he’s in his mid 30’s. He will want to go into his late 30’s/early 40’s or late 20’s/early 30’s and with an opt-out can probably accomplish both.
 

Fishy1

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I agree - it goes to the point that the mid 300s isnt 7-9 win territory for a mid 20s guy - its consistent 4.5-6 win guys. I may not have been completely clear about that, but the idea was that guys who are 5 win players got ~300M and were already 30. A 26 year old is going to be expected to get a fair amount more than that.
Yes, then we're very much on the same page. I think I just misunderstood you.

I think the problem here is that it seems unlikely that the player will accept a deal that has the contract expiring when he’s in his mid 30’s. He will want to go into his late 30’s/early 40’s or late 20’s/early 30’s and with an opt-out can probably accomplish both.
Yes, I think so too.
 

BoSox Rule

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I agree - it goes to the point that the mid 300s isnt 7-9 win territory for a mid 20s guy - its consistent 4.5-6 win guys. I may not have been completely clear about that, but the idea was that guys who are 5 win players got ~300M and were already 30. A 26 year old is going to be expected to get a fair amount more than that.



To be clear, he was a super 2 - not a traditional arb1 guy so he had three more years of arb left that the contract covers. Assuming he would have received $35M or so for his arbitration years his free agent years were valued at $25M a year then you get into your point about it being signed prior to this market where valuations are up 10%+. Teams also typically expect some discount on the "free agent years" they are buying in an long term early arbitration extension.
Maybe I should have quoted the specific post but they said the best case for the Sox right now is 315/9. That’s 35 AAV.
Is anyone suggesting paying him like a 7-9 win player? Judge just got 9/360 and has 1 9+ win season in his career and will be 31. The only guy who has been a consistent 8 win player and got a deal in his mid 20s was Mike Trout who signed a 12/425 before the 2019 season. Beyond the fact that Trout would almost certain get closer to $500M four years later, I havent seen anyone suggest anything close to 12/425 on this site. Similarily Ohtani is going to get mid 400s.
The Yankees offered Judge a total, in addition to his 2022 salary, $230m/8. The 9 win season you mention was a 11.5 win season where he set the American League record for home runs.

The post I saw and should’ve quoted said best case for Red Sox now would be $315/9 for Devers which is 35 million per year and I should’ve quoted it. FA contracts are usually a bad deal and that’s why the FA/WAR is what it is I get that, I think. Any calculation these teams use (which is surely different than our’s or anyone else’s) they’re probably saying to themself it’s so high because of every Hamilton, and Pujols, and Cabrera, and Griffey Jr. Etc.
 

mikcou

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Maybe I should have quoted the specific post but they said the best case for the Sox right now is 315/9. That’s 35 AAV.
The Yankees offered Judge a total, in addition to his 2022 salary, $230m/8. The 9 win season you mention was a 11.5 win season where he set the American League record for home runs.

The post I saw and should’ve quoted said best case for Red Sox now would be $315/9 for Devers which is 35 million per year and I should’ve quoted it. FA contracts are usually a bad deal and that’s why the FA/WAR is what it is I get that, I think. Any calculation these teams use (which is surely different than our’s or anyone else’s) they’re probably saying to themself it’s so high because of every Hamilton, and Pujols, and Cabrera, and Griffey Jr. Etc.
If you're excluding Judge's 2022, he isnt really a 7-9 win player though. He's a 4-5 win player who had one outlier rookie year where he had 8 and then 4 straight of between 4 and 5 (by fwar: 2017 -8.7, 2018 - 5.3, 2019 - 4.3; 2020 - 1.1; 2021 - 5.5). If you want to base it on the yankees offer (which he did not accept in any event), I dont think its a fair argument to say he's a 7-9 win player because he hadnt been for four straight years - he's exactly what Devers has been - a 4-5 win guy who had a bad COVID year. So a similar player who is four years older at a comparable time - again you're looking at something that is a $300M+ offer for a reasonable player to accept.

If all you are saying is that the Sox might not have to pay $35M AAV, then yeah thats probably right, but any deal is going to need to be $300M+ total value and likely 30M+ AAV for the free agency portion of it.

Edit: I dont think a mid 20s 7-9 win player is only taking $315M in this market if what you are arguing is that a post that says 9/315 is a 7-9 win player. Ohtani will likely get a 9-10 year deal that is over $400M. A mid 20s guy with that profile is talking about $450M+ that Soto turned down.
 
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jon abbey

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If you're excluding Judge's 2022, he isnt really a 7-9 win player though. He's a 4-5 win player who had one outlier rookie year where he had 8 and then 4 straight of between 4 and 5 (by fwar: 2017 -8.7, 2018 - 5.3, 2019 - 4.3; 2020 - 1.1; 2021 - 5.5). If you want to base it on the yankees offer (which he did not accept in any event), I dont think its a fair argument to say he's a 7-9 win player because he hadnt been for four straight years - he's exactly what Devers has been - a 4-5 win guy who had a bad COVID year. So a similar player who is four years older at a comparable time - again you're looking at something that is a $300M+ offer for a reasonable player to accept.

If all you are saying is that the Sox might not have to pay $35M AAV, then yeah thats probably right, but any deal is going to need to be $300M+ total value and likely 30M+ AAV for the free agency portion of it.
Judge has 37 career bWAR in 3161 PAs, Devers has 15.2 career bWAR in 2958 PAs, Devers' poor defense kills his WAR.

FWIW, Judge has an almost identical bWAR/PA to Betts (56.4 bWAR in 5064 PAs), although of course age is a factor in all of this too.

Anyway, none of this matters, all it takes is one crazy team when a player gets to FA as we just saw with Bogaerts.
 
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mikcou

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Judge has 37 career bWAR in 3161 PAs, Devers has 15.2 career bWAR in 2958 PAs, Devers' poor defense kills his WAR. FWIW, Judge has an almost identical bWAR/PA to Betts (56.4 bWAR in 5064 PAs), although of course age is a factor in all of this too.

Anyway, none of this matters, all it takes is one crazy team when a player gets to FA as we just saw with Bogaerts.
Sure, but this hypothetical specifically excluded 2022 (looking at the pre-2022 offer) and was meant to compare Devers going into his arb3 year to Judge going into his arb3 year. Obviously post 2022 is quite different (and to that point Judge got his stratospheric 40M AAV deal).

At the time, both players have bodies that tend to indicate higher injury risk with Devers being healthier generally (likely due to younger age at each year and yes that does mean that his counting stats are better in total even if they are worse on a rate basis than Judge's; ability to play 150+ games a year does drive value or at least I believe so I guess reasonable minds can differ). They both had plateaued in recent years around a wRC+ in the 140s for Judge and the mid 130s for Devers. In other words if you look at the last four seasons by the player going into their arb 3 seasons this is what you get: Judge: 18.6 v. Devers 14 on bWAR and Judge 16.2 v. Devers 16.5 on fWAR.

Those players are more similar than they are different with the one significant difference being age. Agree that it doesn't really matter, but if someone throws out an offer as a potential comparable, I dont think we can use performance that occurred after the offer was made as an indication of market: either people need to use the actual contract 9/360 (something Devers wont touch) or the performance prior to the offer that is being issued (pre-2022 performance).
 

BoSox Rule

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I wasn’t excluding 2022. Judge’s 2022 was the entire point of my post.
I wouldn’t do 315/9 for Devers —> Devers is a 4-5 win player , not 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 15 or any number you want to use Yankees offered Judge 230/8 —> he bet on himself and THEN has an 11.5 win season to get his $360 million, not after “one 9 win season”
 

mikcou

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I wasn’t excluding 2022. Judge’s 2022 was the entire point of my post.
I wouldn’t do 315/9 for Devers —> Devers is a 4-5 win player , not 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 or 15 or any number you want to use Yankees offered Judge 230/8 —> he bet on himself and THEN has an 11.5 win season to get his $360 million, not after “one 9 win season”
Yes, I think we agree that Devers doesnt need to be offered a $35M AAV. The 8/230 part of the post was a bit confusing as it seemed like you were using that a comp for what to offer Devers now; if you weren't than thats fine. If you were, then I simply think it needs to be adjusted based on the much different ages.