It may be 90% tourists at the Sunday before Patriots Day game. The locals will be at TD Garden at Celtics Fan Appreciation Day.
No Town Hall this year at Red Sox Winter Weekend
- Thread starter Cassvt2023
- Start date
I’m not one to demand the Red Sox spend a certain amount on payroll every season, or that they should just throw money at whoever is available… but if their philosophy going forward is “we’re not going to pursue top talent, and the fans will pay what we tell them to pay”, then I hope the ticket sales and NESN viewership fully reflect the product they’re putting on the field.
Not to belabor the loss of Mookie Betts, but with each passing day the Red Sox ownership continues to dig that hole deeper, and it just seems clearer and clearer they simply didn’t want to pay him. For the past few years, I blamed the Mookie trade on the ill-advised Sale extension, but more and more I believe they wouldn’t have paid Mookie, even if Sale and Price were off the books.
Not to belabor the loss of Mookie Betts, but with each passing day the Red Sox ownership continues to dig that hole deeper, and it just seems clearer and clearer they simply didn’t want to pay him. For the past few years, I blamed the Mookie trade on the ill-advised Sale extension, but more and more I believe they wouldn’t have paid Mookie, even if Sale and Price were off the books.
+1 (or maybe more)
I understand the desire to do so, but some of this parsing bits and pieces resembles trying to decode the Dead Sea Scrolls with a Red Ryder ring.
This is exactly where I am, particularly with regard to expectations for this season. While the implication seems to be that they won't be spending significantly more than they already have, some notable free agents remain available right now so I'm not ready to judge the roster or the payroll as complete just yet. Maybe they add more players, maybe they don't. I'm not going to guess what's going to happen and then react to that guess.
I'm also not convinced that saying the payroll will be lower equates to the team not trying to be competitive.
Because Stroman and other starting pitchers that have been signed are better than the ones we have. It's not that complicated.
I think the BBOps team are competitive people and good at their job, so they want to win the same way the players do. They'll try, but they're doing so on a budget that's unnecessarily limited.
Craig Breslow and the Red Sox are the baseball equivalent to Ginger Rodgers: they'll have to do what the Yankees & Dodgers & Mets do, but with less money.
It’s not an implication…it’s a direct quote from a senior executive with the team that payroll will probably be lower this year. Unless you’re thinking this is some 3D chess move to help negotiations with Boras, I don’t see any free agents remaining that would materially improve the outlook for next year.
Honestly at this point I would rather they just allocate the $20ish million of available payroll to extend Casas/Pivetta/Bello rather than half measures under the guise of trying to look competitive.
Yeah, this is me.
I will hold out hope that the money under CBT is for extensions this year, or they are about to make the big SP move, but mostly yeah.
They finished last in the AL East a couple years running, seem poised to repeat that performance again (88-90 wins…what? I’ve got a medical card but clearly going to the wrong dispensary) and are introducing even more aggressive austerity measures.
Go ahead and sit tight, fan how you wanna fan!, but this isn’t complicated at all for me either.
I rarely quote Top Gun (that’s a lie) but I keep hearing Warner saying ‘I will fire when I am goddamn good and ready!’. It won’t be soon.
Edit - I’ve even stopped dismissing all the report of folks refusing to interview. They would have quickly learned the purse was getting even tighter, the farm is utterly barren of useful near pitching, the fans have separated into either already pissed or will wait forever, and the owners start a brushfire of stupidity ever time they open their crap spewing mouths. It’s all hanging on Breslow, sink or swim.
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Pivetta will be an interesting one. Given what we now know about the organization's financial commitment for this season, as he approaches free agency he might be happy to bet on himself and move on. Serious question for you, me and others who are looking to extend some of the younger players, when would you like to see these extensions happen? ASAP or wait until we see a little bit more from them? In the case of Casas, Pivetta and Bello I start the talks soon.
Personally I think Bello has to show a bit more before an extension is offered. He showed lots of promise last year but in the final analysis his numbers were 'just OK', with a 4.54 FIP and a 1.6 fWAR in 157 innings. I'd give him one more full season to show what he can do, especially with the new pitching development machine in place.
You're right, they're not implying anything. We're inferring that they're done spending because they said the payroll this year will "probably be lower" than last year. Of course, the word probably isn't exactly definitive. What it sounds like is that they don't expect to spend more than last year but they're not totally ruling it out should a worthwhile opportunity present itself.
As for remaining free agents that would materially improve the outlook for next year, would Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell not materially improve the rotation in 2024? Absolutely they would. Now the chances of them signing one of those guys are certainly low given what we know at the moment, but let's not pretend they wouldn't improve the team's outlook. But as long as they remain unsigned, we can't wholly dismiss the idea that could sign here.
Probably a good topic for Moves I’d Make or a new thread. I think there are some ways we could have our cake and eat it too here. First, I’m not sure if Kennedy actually meant their cash payroll or their CBT payroll will be lower this year. If it’s cash payroll, there is probably some flexibility to get these done and add some decent FAs. Second, you can always structure these extensions to kick in after the season so their CBT hit for 2024 remains low. As we’re well below the first CBT threshold this year, I would not do that but it’s an option.
In terms of timing, I feel like these things typically come together in spring training or early season. If you want to get Pivetta at a reasonable number i think it needs to come soon. If we get to May and he is shoving then he’s most likely going to just ride out the season and hit free agency.
Casas you can probably wait until early in the season. I’m fairly confident in his skill set and work ethic so I don’t think there’s a ton of risk there. I’ve mentioned in other threads but power guys like him tend to get rewarded in arbitration (see Pete Alonso, Vlad Jr, etc.) so it makes sense to lock him in at reasonable dollars.
I can go either way on Bello. Young pitchers are risky from an injury standpoint. On the other hand, his stuff is so good that if he puts it together he could get really expensive. I guess if we could get him at a team friendly price it would make sense. Otherwise just ride it out.
Winter Weekend live on NSEN ATM (10AM and again at 3PM). TC mention a show to be aired tomorrow (Sunday) at 7PM that will highlight the weekend and from his tone it's not all going to be positive. He mentioned his trying to "keep things from going off the rails" yesterday.
Teel, Anthony, Mayer, and Yorke at WW right now
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1748720687643238858
Teel was winterizing the rest with snowballs at Fenway
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1748720687643238858
Teel was winterizing the rest with snowballs at Fenway
Those guys would certainly improve the outlook! And you’re right the word “probably” leaves open the possibility of larger moves. Its not impossible that the price of Snell/Monty drops to a level the Sox would be comfortable with and they extend a little to get it done (maybe even moving Kenley/Martin to make the dollars work). I haven’t entirely given up hope but as you said, the chances are pretty low at this point.
This is where I'm at too. As someone who annually wishes/wishcasts the Sox to spend lavishly on free agents or salary dump deals for prospects, those scenarios are often much more complex and difficult to pull off than what's visible to us as fans. I look at the non-Yamamoto players who have signed and I just don't see it. Last night's signing of Robert Stephenson — a California native who signed with the Angels — is probably the first one (besides Yamamoto) I was disappointed about.
But I'll say again, if Breslow spun one year of Sale, one year of Verdugo and two years of Luis Urias into six years of Grissom, six years of Isaiah Campbell, five years of Weissert, and six MLB years of Fitts and Judice, I think that's a decent bit of business. Not because it sheds $30 million in salary, but because of the return. Should they reallocate that $30 million toward payroll? Yes I hope so (and they've given $19M to Giolito and $5.9M to O'Neill). Given which free agents have signed, I truly don't know why it's anything to get worked up about. I'm not going to be angry that we didn't sign Seth Lugo for 3/$50 when we have a comparable and much younger in-house player in Houck.
At some point along the way, the reporting has become fixated on the payroll as the sole indicator of the team's fortunes. I get that it's a bellwether and if there's indeed some new self-imposed cap, then I'll be upset (they've said several times that there's not). But focusing on this angle alone ignores that there are baseball reasons for the moves that have been made, and the non-moves too. Masslive's continued framing of last year's $225 million payroll being "significantly below" the CBT threshold of $233 million seems absurd. Everyone knew we were resetting the tax, and most people here thought we should be sellers at last year's deadline, not giving up prospects to acquire players.
I continue to think they should spend and I hope they will. But focusing on the payroll number alone, to this degree, seems really strange. It's like a creative way of writing about Mookie Betts without directly mentioning him.
I think this is fair. As an example if Breslow could trade Story and replace him with Matt McLain, trade Yoshida and sign Montgomery, the payroll would be call it $20m lower than it is right now. But the team would be much better. Granted, those aren’t realistic, but the theory is correct.
I would disagree about the self imposed cap because, well, Kennedy literally said there was a self imposed budget (and didn’t say what that is). It could be $225m, it could be $200m, it could be $300m, but Kennedy literally said there was in fact a budget, which is a self imposed cap. Doesn’t mean they’ll never go over it, doesn’t mean they‘ll spend up to it, but he said it exists. Directly. In public.
FWIW, I do agree about the focus on the number being overblown. Case in point, I 1,000,000% think they should spend $25m per year on Montgomery or Snell (at this point in time). I would in no way advocate giving $10m to Stephenson, $10m to Duvall and $10m to Ryu just because it’s spending $30m (or $5m more).
I don‘t (and won’t) crush them for spending $200m to win 76 games but not being willing to spend $230m to win 79 games.
Honestly, I think the latter approach was MORE insulting to fans. The implication that a team built like that could contend for titles was, is, and will continue to be asinine.
Now, I remain upset that there is a clear and obvious baseball need, not just for 2024 but for the medium term, that there are (or were) multiple pitchers out there that could have satisfied that, and that they have not (and apparently will not) give any of them multiple year deals.
I commend them for realizing Adam Duvall, Michael Wacha and Corey Kluber type deals are not going to be worth jack and not trying to lie to the fan base that signing those type deals is what it takes.
Sure, yes, fair. They've got a budget as every operation does. What I meant to say is a self-imposed budget that's significantly lower than the CBT, for a sustained period. Resetting the tax every third year is a roster-building initiative. (Not advocating that it's a necessity, but the implications are real).
But I think it's a story, and now a quote, because reporters have fixated on it and repeatedly pressed ownership about it. What I'm hearing them say is that there's no real fixed payroll limit, that it's up to the GM/CBO. You'd of course need ownership approval for any major expenditures like Ohtani or Yamamoto, but that's true for any MLB team.
When we hear Kennedy and Breslow and Werner decline to discuss specifics about the payroll, we can choose to believe that it's because it's not an especially big deal, or we can believe that it's a major secret that they're trying to cover up.
I think the far more likely scenario is that besides Yamamoto (who was certain to follow Ohtani to LA), Breslow has seen no terrific reason so far to sign someone to an enormous contract. We're talking about maybe five or six players here that fit the bill. I know you wanted Nola, and I would have been happy with Nola. But given the circumstances of his re-signing with Philly, we can't say with certainty — in my opinion the kind of certainty required to allege malpractice or malfeasance — that Nola was an option to us unless we're talking about a offer you can't refuse type thing (like 8/$250 million? I don't know). And then, would that be a good decision?
They wouldn’t have been in on Nola, anyways, since all the reports were that they told FA pitchers that they were talking to that they had to wait to see what happened with YY first.
Hopefully someone will ask Breslow why he hasn’t traded for a SP yet- he clearly indicated that was part of the plan.
Hopefully someone will ask Breslow why he hasn’t traded for a SP yet- he clearly indicated that was part of the plan.
He's been pretty clear about the asks being too high and not worth it.
At some point, though, if the asks are too high on all FA and all potential trades, you have to wonder if you have misjudged the marketplace and the value of your own assets. Or, they should consider selling and taking advantage, especially if next year is a bridge year.
Just as the FA pitchers were waiting out YY, it's very likely that teams with pitchers to trade are waiting for free agency to settle in order to clearly see the market. Should Breslow overpay to get a Cease or Luzardo now or would it be worthwhile to see if the trade prices become more acceptable after Montgomery and Snell find homes and there are fewer potential partners for the White Sox or Marlins to leverage? Trading for one of them on January 20 is not more helpful for the 2024 season than doing so on February 20.
Well, I guess it depends. Being super specific about planning to sign one FA starter and trade for another was probably unnecessary, in hindsight. Why be so explicit about your plans and raise expectations? It seems likely to me that what the Sox want to trade isn’t that appealing to other teams. The longe they wait, the harder it may be to make trades too- it’s a lot more difficult to trade a guy like Duran when the best FA OF to replace him is like, Kike Hernandez.
Passing on seriously engaging with a bunch of SP to wait on YY, a guy the Sox seemingly had no realistic shot at signing, was probably not a great move. Then again, it’s not clear how real the Sox perceived interest in any player this year has really been. If the payroll limitations are what they are, they were likely never signing most of these guys anyways.
Passing on seriously engaging with a bunch of SP to wait on YY, a guy the Sox seemingly had no realistic shot at signing, was probably not a great move. Then again, it’s not clear how real the Sox perceived interest in any player this year has really been. If the payroll limitations are what they are, they were likely never signing most of these guys anyways.
But then you come back to this statement by Werner:
In the end, we don’t have a line in terms of our payroll that we look at as much as trusting that Craig [Breslow] is going to deliver on his assurance that we’re going to be competitive.
Trevor Story, Tyler O’Niell, Vaughn Grissom, and Nick Pivetta taking tough questions from the kids.
“What’s your favorite bubble gum?” Actual question.
I don’t think this is accurate. I think those of us who have been pointing out payroll and spending limits are not fixated on a number; I certainly am not. My fixation is on improving the team along the lines everyone has laid out: adding starting pitching and a RH bat. The reason to call out artificial payroll & budget numbers is because they are limiting to teams improvement and ability to compete.
What constitutes an “enormous contract”? We are at the point that there’s no one left the Sox can’t afford if they choose to spend and I don’t see an argument that Montgomery doesn’t improve the team for the next few years. These are just the market rates for free agents, they’re only outrageous if you’re Willam Foster
Frankly, suggesting Bloom can’t find someone worth spending the money on is shifting the blame away from ownership, where it squarely belongs. They control the purse strings.
The quote really makes no sense, to me. Either they have a payroll limit, or they don’t. Breslow’s assurances to be competitive, however that’s defined, seems unrelated. They are just setting him up to take the fall if the team isn’t good (Craig said we’d be good!). It’s no surprise, though, they’ve done this with every GM / HBO guy.
That was part of the discussion he had with Tom Caron on the WW special this morning. I'll paraphrase here... he's had conversations with other teams, he doesn't want to trade '24 wind for wins in '25 and beyond (which I semi-understand depending on the proposed deal) and that these conversations sometimes need to be forced and at times it's his job to force them.
The second paragraph makes me think you don’t know what is being talked about. This isn’t “parsing bits and pieces” or “decoding Dead Sea Scrolls with a Red Ryder ring”
Sam Kennedy straight up said the payroll will probably be less than last year. No parsing bits and pieces or decoding. That’s a direct quote in an environment that wasn’t exactly welcoming towards him.