Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years
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I don't know if the Yankees have payroll limitations, but they do have a lot of current commitments. Stanton at $32/$32/$27/$25m and Rondon at $27m for the next 5 years are not great.
At least it seems evident now that the people who suspected the Sox were making an insincere offer were wrong.
One thing of note here is that LAD, PHI, NYM and MFY have all been over the CBT line since at least 2022, so his contract will cost them 50% extra at least for this year. Additionally, I don't think either of the NY teams could possibly sign him without crossing the CBT + $60m line, which represents an additional 60% surcharge (LAD and PHI would have to cross CBT +40, for 42.5%)
The Sox and SF are the only suitors who reset last year.
Maybe it's only money and it truly doesn't matter anymore, but it is a lot.
The Sox and SF are the only suitors who reset last year.
Maybe it's only money and it truly doesn't matter anymore, but it is a lot.
Marino Pepen said the three teams most competitive for YY at the moment are Boston, NYM, and LAD.
The Giants and Red Sox has made the most sense from a payroll perspective from day 1.
That's pretty classy of him to go out there to personally tell Cashman that he will not be signing with New York
Screw that, Penny a Pound at the Ground Round. You can’t let this man leave Boston.
Edit - I was beaten!
I hope Ohtani didn't regale him with the tale of waiting out a long rain delay in Boston and Betts didn't say, well, they're a good fanbase, but their owner didn't want to pay me. Etc. One can think anything. Also, aren't the facilities at Fenway a bit small? We love its history, etc., but that might not have a lot of meaning to Y.
I still think he should come here b/c he'd be The Man, and we're ready to love him the way we loved Koji. We'll see. . . . .
The figure can and should be flexible. If you're one of the last teams in contention it likely that it comes down to how the deal is structured. Unless someone goes completely Looney Tunes at the 11th hour.
Isn’t Stanton’s salary only at $22M for luxury tax purposes? The Yankees payroll limitations theory seems overblown.
What does Pedros contract have to do with anything? Cherry picking a player - specifically a small framed fireball pitcher that specifically suits your point - is a pretty shitty way to try and have an actual discussion. And I'm sure (or hope) you'd know this. Might as well add in Tim Lincecum while you're at it.
Here's a recent pitcher aging curve graph from fangraphs. For a 25 year old, an 8 year contract sees an ERA- drop of 40. 10 years would see a drop of 60. So, while the contract certainly isn't only his prime years (duh), those are the expected dropoff numbers we'd see.
Due to most young SPs needing more seasoning in the minors than hitters, the majority of first contracts for SP aren't signed until they are 29-30. Give an 8 year contract to a 29 year old, and the ERA- drop is 80, double the expected dropoff in quality for an 8 year gap for a 25 year old (Yamamoto). And considering the dropoff is significantly steeper the older a player gets, the value of that contract is going to be significantly worse.
So, I'm not sure what Pedro has to do with anything. And obviously I'm not saying an 8 or 10 year contract will entirely be a players prime. But I shouldn't have to pull any data for it to be understood a long contract for a 25 year old is significantly better than a long contract for a 30 year old.
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I bet Cohen owns more than one house, so is it definitive that YY has left the West Coast?
If you're Breslow, what is the worst-case scenario you are factoring into any offer: Mike Norris? Daisuke Matsuzaka? Tim Lincecum?
If you're Breslow, what is the worst-case scenario you are factoring into any offer: Mike Norris? Daisuke Matsuzaka? Tim Lincecum?
Confirmation he is visiting the Yankees soon. I think that plus the Fenway Park report, and Cohen meeting, confirms he’s hoping around the NE right now.
My point is that YY is going to get a 10-12 year deal, so you are likely going to get a some crappy years at the back end- that even the best pitcher in team history, acquired for his age 26 year season, wasn’t great for the last 4-5. Of course, the hope is that the production at the beginning hopefully makes up for the underproduction at the end. Or that player salaries increase so much (which I’m skeptical of due to what’s happening with RSN’s) that the salary at the end isn’t that bad.
Ultimately, a 10+ year to deal any pitcher is pretty risky, that’s all. Which is kind of no duh point.
Beyond this (which is a great point/analysis), Pedro is a horrible comparison because if you were to go back in time would you really not give him a 10 year deal if that was the market cost? The first five years of that deal were the best pitching in the last 70 by anyone. The six year deal was an amazing value, but a ten year still would have worked out quite well.
Maybe he really WAS spotted at the South Shore Mall!
This is great, who knows what will happen, but the Sox are clearly going for it.
Cot's has Yankees CBT payroll for 2024 at $287.1 currently, just over the CBT+40 line of $287m. So it's a 50% tax on everything over $237m for them, plus a 45% surcharge, and that surcharge goes up to 60% if they cross CBT+60.
If the Red Sox had the sense to take Yamamoto to Square One, this would be a done deal. Jordan Marsh is a God in his country.
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If he’s working his way eastward, I like having the last visit. And there is no place in the world that looks like Fenway park.
Hope he gets that feeling most people do when he walks up the tunnel and sees a sea of green.
Also hope he isn’t visiting while the hurricane hits
Hope he gets that feeling most people do when he walks up the tunnel and sees a sea of green.
Also hope he isn’t visiting while the hurricane hits
At this point, just blow him out of the water with a 12/420 type offer. At least 8 of those years, at a minimum, should be prime years. Who cares if a few end up being not with the money - and really, who knows what the money for SP will look like in 2033?
I’m not sure it would matter, but someone should send Yamamoto a video montage of Hideki Irabu getting relentlessly booed in Yankee Stadium, along with George Steinbrenner calling him a “fat toad”.
My biggest fear with Yamamoto is he’ll see the Yankees as the most likely of his suitors to face off with Ohtani in a World Series - Yankees versus Dodgers… the two biggest franchises in the sport, headlined by Yamamoto and Ohtani - and what it would do for Japanese baseball.
My biggest fear with Yamamoto is he’ll see the Yankees as the most likely of his suitors to face off with Ohtani in a World Series - Yankees versus Dodgers… the two biggest franchises in the sport, headlined by Yamamoto and Ohtani - and what it would do for Japanese baseball.
If it happened tomorrow Yamamoto wouldn’t even start game 1. Which is a point I’ve made a couple times now and I think is a legitimate one
The Yankees have been to the World Series once in the past twenty years. Why would he think that?
You're severely underestimating the collapse risk to pitchers. Would the Mariners have been getting at least 8 prime years if they gave a 25 year old Felix Hernandez a 12 year deal? How about the Giants with Bumgarner or Lincecum or Cain? The Diamondbacks with Brandon Webb? The White Sox with Chris Sale? These aren't just average talents. They're some of the best young pitchers of the last 20 years and they didn't stay healthy or effective for 8 years, never mind 12.
It’s a risk for sure, but this is a team in desperate need of a #1 type SP. There is no SP who is risk free or a sure thing, but you’re not gonna find a better SP out there that only costs money.
Sure, but this is true for any big name free agent. And, again, the comparative risk because of his age is significantly less. A 10 year contract takes him to 35. Certainly past his prime, but most likely a still functional member of a rotation. Now compare that to how old some of these SP will be when their contracts end:
Gerrit Cole, 38
Strasburg, 38
DeGrom, 39
Nola, 37
Darvish, 42
Rodon, 36
Scherzer, 40
Berrios, 35
Corbin, 35
Glasnow, 35
Again, any big contract is a risk. But paying for past production on a 10 year contract is much less of a deal breaker for a 25 year old.
Eventually there will be a breaking point. MLB is trying a bunch of things to draw the interest of fans back to the game. Rule changes designed to quicken the pace of game, and the eventual implementation of robo-umps to name a couple. But at the same time, they continue to try to source new income via MLBTV, exclusive broadcasts on streaming services, increase fees for broadcast rights, etc...Prices at the ball park continue to spiral and the fans are starting to get priced out. It's often pointed out here that MLB and it's owners have tons of cash. OK, but for how much longer? How many of us attend games in person as often as we once did? How many of us have cut the cord or play a constant shell game with TV content providers in an effort to play less? We currently have major sports franchises left in the lurch due to a regional sports network filing for bankruptcy. I know that I don't have an endless supply of cash and with the younger generations not as much into the game of baseball as many of us in our 50s or older, who's going finance these league, owners and their teams when those of us who still feel some passion for the game lose that lose that passion due to the price attached or pass on?
But those teams didn’t need to splash out for twelve years to *get the near-term seasons of those pitchers.*
They had lower risk avenues they could pursue.
You're talking past and present, I was addressing the question that you posed about the future, "Who cares if a few end up being not with the money - and really, who knows what the money for SP will look like in 2033?
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