NY Trading Deadline 2023

[jon abbey]

I was going to write about this at length but I see Mike Axisa has beaten me to it on his Patreon newsletter, I agree with this word for word as much as the Bader and Wandy part hurts.

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1. The Yankees should sell. I’ve seen enough. This team ain’t it and the Yankees should prioritize the future at the deadline. I advocated for a “soft sell” at the 2021 deadline, and not only did the Yankees not do that, they made trades that further harmed the franchise. They have stepped on landmine after landmine since then (Josh Donaldson, Joey Gallo, Frankie Montas, etc.). Moves that meaningfully subtracted from the team’s championship odds.

"A true playoff contender, you know, not a playoff pretender, wouldn't do that,” Brian Cashman said at the 2016 deadline, after the Yankees got swept by the last place Rays and decided to sell. That also applies to losing two of three to a bad Rockies team this past weekend. Day after day the Yankees show everyone they aren’t good enough. The downward trend is too long to ignore at this point. I cite the last 12 months (and especially the last four) as evidence.

“Selling” in this case does not mean blowing it up and entering a rebuild, something that frankly isn’t even possible given the current roster and contract commitments. It would also be unwise to do that while Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge are in their prime. This team can contend next year (I think?), so focus on that instead hoping a 2023 team that is terrible at making its own luck can sneak into the postseason and get lucky.

So, what does a ‘soft sell” look like? There are four components:

• Trade rentals. Harrison Bader, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Wandy Peralta, Luis Severino, etc. If Iván Nova had trade value in 2016, Severino has trade value now. Get something for players who aren’t helping you win this year and won’t be around to help you win next year.
• Move “replaceable” players with control. For example, Gleyber Torres clearly isn’t part of the long-term plan and the Yankees can replace him from within with Oswald Peraza, so he should go. Ditto any and all relievers. Capitalize on a thin pitching trade market.
• Try to dump salary. DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, etc. Don’t give up prospects to do it, but if there’s a path to unloading part of these contracts, the declining veterans should go. (This is a long shot.)
• Do not buy rentals. More accurately, do not trade legit prospects for rentals. Taking on a rental as a pure salary dump is fine. Trading decent prospects for a band-aid is a no-go.

The only exception to the fourth bullet point is Shohei Ohtani, who I will need to see get traded at the deadline to believe it will happen. That guy is a franchise changer. It would be like trading for prime LeBron, so by all means, trade for thatrental. Otherwise, the Yankees don’t need to repeat the Rizzo trade or the Andrew Heaney trade or the Andrew Benintendi trade. Keep the prospects, or trade them for players with multiple years of control. I'm totally cool with trading good prospects for long-term pieces. Just not rentals.

 

[jon abbey]

The only guy I've seen rumored who I think might make sense for NY is Dylan Carlson, still 24 and a top 10 BA prospect in 2020 and 2021. He is under control through 2026 and STL has dropped him out of their OF rotation again and badly need pitching, and NY has a bunch of interesting SPs at AA and AAA again. German for Carlson could work both ways.

 

[DanoooME]

Yankees don't have the pieces to get Ohtani. Even if you include Volpe, and I doubt Cashman would.

 

[jon abbey]

Guys I would like to see traded or DFAd by the deadline:

Domingo German
Luis Severino
Harrison Bader (for some kind of substantive return)
Jose Trevino
IKF
Franchy Cordero

Taking their spots, Brito/Vasquez and Cortes soon, Carlson, Rortvedt (Narvaez moves to #3), Greg Allen, and Florial.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I doubt that Ohtani would be the missing part to make the NYY a legit contender. I’d be more about the foothold they would have over other teams for next season.
That said…. Ohtani is a possible $50M?
Two players making $90M combined? And likely for the next 10 years too….Yeah… not so sure how I’d feel about that as a fan concerned about flexibility. I don’t see Cashman doing that, and I don’t see him being the difference maker this season.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, let's forget about the Ohtani part, I shouldn't have included that. don't think that's happening and if it does, it would likely cripple the team for quite some time.

 

[Archer1979]

NY's in a tough spot very similar to the Sox's. They're only 2.5 games out of the third wild card spot. They've got a cupcake schedule until they go to Baltimore right before the trade deadline. Toronto has a tougher schedule from here to the end of July which would give NY and the Sox the illusion that they're gaining ground so they are both contenders on paper until then. That makes it difficult to the fanbase to go into sell mode. Like the Sox, it might be best to make marginal trades that don't really cut into the minor league depth. Other than that, the only thing NY can hope for is Judge's return although there is no timetable set.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Wild underperformance makes this really tricky. Ask me an in hour and I'll have a different opinion.

This is not a bad Yankees team. We have top pitching, a lot of bullpen arms, and Aaron Judge. This is a bad offense. Start hitting and this team will string together a lot of wins. Is Rizzo too old to turn it around? Will Peraza and Volpe emerge as middle of the order bats? Will Judge be back next week or the week after? Will Stanton continue to improve and start hitting again?

The pieces are there and it's not hard to see how adding a bat can really open a window into unlocking this team's potential. It's also not hard to see how selling is the right move because adding anything will use prospect capital. We have prospect capital, but do we want to use it on this team? No idea, but for the first time in years, I genuinely believe Cashman is on the hot seat.

 

[terrynever]

Wild underperformance makes this really tricky. Ask me an in hour and I'll have a different opinion.

This is not a bad Yankees team. We have top pitching, a lot of bullpen arms, and Aaron Judge. This is a bad offense. Start hitting and this team will string together a lot of wins. Is Rizzo too old to turn it around? Will Peraza and Volpe emerge as middle of the order bats? Will Judge be back next week or the week after? Will Stanton continue to improve and start hitting again?

The pieces are there and it's not hard to see how adding a bat can really open a window into unlocking this team's potential. It's also not hard to see how selling is the right move because adding anything will use prospect capital. We have prospect capital, but do we want to use it on this team? No idea, but for the first time in years, I genuinely believe Cashman is on the hot seat.

I agree on Cashman. If this team misses the playoffs, Hal will replace him. 26 years is a long time. He only won one WS on his own and had to pay through the nose for that one.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I don't think Cashman will be gone if they miss the playoffs this year unless he wants to move on. Back-to-back misses would probably do it though.

Boone and more staff certainly will be.

 

[Archer1979]

I don't think Cashman will be gone if they miss the playoffs this year unless he wants to move on. Back-to-back misses would probably do it though.

Boone and more staff certainly will be.

I agree. NY is still making money. Cashman isn't going anywhere.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Would Brian Sabean be an enticing option for Hal if he actually pulled the trigger and fired Cashman?

 

[Marciano490]

Guys I would like to see traded or DFAd by the deadline:

Domingo German
Luis Severino
Harrison Bader (for some kind of substantive return)
Jose Trevino
IKF
Franchy Cordero

Taking their spots, Brito/Vasquez and Cortes soon, Carlson, Rortvedt (Narvaez moves to #3), Greg Allen, and Florial.

They’re both killing it, but do you see Florial up before Pereira?

 

[EvilEmpire]

I agree. NY is still making money. Cashman isn't going anywhere.

I don't think it has anything to do with the Yankees making money. They'll make money whoever is in that seat.

Cashman has developed a good farm system and turned out decent talent for quite a while, generally without the benefit of high draft picks. They've made the playoffs six years in a row and have made it to the ALCS three times in that span. It really sucks that they haven't won it all or even been to the World Series in a while, but I think Cashman has built teams that were good enough and had a decent chance, but just couldn't get it done.

As much as the farm system has been a plus, too many of his FA signings and trades have been minuses. I value the farm system work a lot more, but we'll see. His seat is warmer than it has been in a long time. I think it will be truly hot next year if they don't turn it around.

And if they do turn things around next year, it will probably be young talent from the farm that we're watching right now that will play a big role in that happening. Edit: And of course that will have justified keeping him. And if these young guys regress/flop next year, that might be what finishes Cashman.

 

[Wingack]

This seems like one of those situations where the Yankees could be sellers and still make the playoffs.

 

[jon abbey]

They’re both killing it, but do you see Florial up before Pereira?

The Florial situation is pretty odd, there is a whole article about/interview with him in today's Athletic. He was on top 100 MLB lists, NY protected him on the 40 man for multiple years well before he was ready (as they're doing with Pereira now), they barely gave him a chance in MLB (and he looked promising!!), then they DFAd him very early this season and no one picked them up so they got him back, no longer on the 40 man.

He is still just 25, he has been one of the top hitters in the AAA IL all season, and he can play LF where NY has had a black hole all year, but NY is somehow allergic to adding him back to the 40 man because they think (I'm guessing) that he won't be able to stick, they'll have to DFA him again, and this time someone will grab him. It's truly absurd as an outsider looking in.

And Pereira is already on the 40 man, so they don't have that excuse with him, but they really seem to hate giving kids a shot until they're fully forced to do so.

https://theathletic.com/4701843/2023/07/19/yankees-estevan-florial-prospect-outfield/

 

[j-man]

we need to sell but it might be as basic as a new skipper if boston fires cora i would love to see him in NY otherwise some young up and comeer

 

[Murderer's Crow]

God, please no Cora.

 

[jon abbey]

Managers don’t matter much but Boone has never been good at in-game managing.

 

[jon abbey]

Guys I would like to see traded or DFAd by the deadline:

Domingo German
Luis Severino
Harrison Bader (for some kind of substantive return)
Jose Trevino
IKF
Franchy Cordero

Taking their spots, Brito/Vasquez and Cortes soon, Carlson, Rortvedt (Narvaez moves to #3), Greg Allen, and Florial.

Well, Trevino replaced by Rortvedt happened, (hopefully) many more moves to come.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/DanielDeVivo/status/1684581712381218817

 

[jon abbey]

10 days ago I said:

Guys I would like to see traded or DFAd by the deadline:

Domingo German
Luis Severino
Harrison Bader (for some kind of substantive return)
Jose Trevino
IKF
Franchy Cordero

Taking their spots, Brito/Vasquez and Cortes soon, Carlson, Rortvedt (Narvaez moves to #3), Greg Allen, and Florial.

Two of those six are gone (Trevino out for the season and Franchy in AAA), I will add some more:

Domingo German
Luis Severino
Harrison Bader
IKF
Gleyber
Higgy
1 of Bauers/McKinney/Allen (none have options)

Gleyber is one of their only good hitters right now, but he gives some back in the field and on the bases and I'd like to give Peraza a real chance. I would try to get a pre-arb LHH OF for the package of Severino/German (maybe to ARI?) and a pitcher for Gleyber (maybe to MIA?), but even if there are no 26 man additions in return:

Volpe SS
Judge RF/DH
Rizzo 1B
Stanton DH/RF
LeMahieu 3B
Florial CF/LF
Pereira LF/CF
Rortvedt C
Peraza 2B

bench: Austin Wells (backup C), two of Bauers/McKinney/Allen, Cabrera

So you subtract Gleyber, Bader, IKF, Higgy and an OF and add Peraza, Florial, Cabrera, Wells and Pereira. Three of them are on the 40 man already so you gain three empty 40 man spots plus make room for Florial and Wells (both rule 5 eligible in November).

The rotation loses Severino (FA after the season) and German (FA after 2024) but they have Nestor back in 10 days (49 pitches in AA tonight, 4 2 0 0 1 5) and Vasquez and Brito both have done a good job filling in.

Cole
Rodon
Nestor
Schmidt
Vasquez or Brito

The bullpen I will leave to Cashman, he is always a few steps ahead there. The only upcoming FA is Wandy but I'd think they'd want to keep him if they could agree on something fair.

That is an exciting young team, they still need the three veterans behind Judge to hit but 6-1 there would be fun to tune in for. Wells for Higgy is a defensive downgrade but Peraza for Gleyber is an upgrade and the LF/CF combo of Florial/Pereira (both natural CFs) is better than Bader and whatever butcher was in LF.

Cashman doesn't have the balls to do this (maybe it's not possible in reality), but this is the kind of bold plan that I think is needed to try to keep up in this brutal division.

 

[jon abbey]

Gleyber-26 (!!), Peraza 23
Bader 29, Florial 25
IKF 28, Cabrera 24
Higgy 33, Wells 24
1 of Bauers 27 /Allen 30 /McKinney 28, Pereira 22

An average of 5 years younger in 5 roster positions, I get that younger isn't always better but older ain't doing it so let's give some younger guys a shot. You're welcome, Brian.

 

[BigSoxFan]

It is truly remarkable how bad this Yankees lineup is. Here are the offensive rankings in the following stats:

AVG: 29th
OBP: 26th
OPS: 23rd

If Rizzo/Stanton are as cooked as they look, I think so is this team. There is zero reason to throw Judge a strike at this point.

 

[jon abbey]

It is truly remarkable how bad this Yankees lineup is. Here are the offensive rankings in the following stats:

AVG: 29th
OBP: 26th
OPS: 23rd

If Rizzo/Stanton are as cooked as they look, I think so is this team. There is zero reason to throw Judge a strike at this point.

Plus Bader has a hard to believe .564 OPS against RHP before his 0-3 tonight, they already dumped Hicks and Donaldson and we didn't even mention the carcass of LeMahieu...

 

[Murderer's Crow]

We've been talking about whether Cash should buy or sell but I hadn't considered the option that he we would do nothing and if we stand pat, I will be genuinely furious. I've had a hard time tuning in this year, accumulating maybe 10 or 15 games watched but I think I would just completely give myself back the rest of the year if trade prospects for rentals or do nothing.

 

[EvilEmpire]

My preferences, rank ordered would be:

1) Sell the guys JA mentioned above.
2) Do nothing.
.
.
.
.
.
3) And least favorite by a mile: Buy. I don't think they are going to get anyone with control who will be any good. And obviously giving up young talent for rentals would be absolutely terrible.

So I'm OK with an unsatisfying "nothing". There is still enough talent to make the playoffs and go on a run with what they've got, but I don't think adding changes the odds very much either way. If the established veterans they already have don't hit closer to career norms, it doesn't really matter.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We've been talking about whether Cash should buy or sell but I hadn't considered the option that he we would do nothing and if we stand pat, I will be genuinely furious.

But who is out there on offense at this point that would be an upgrade? Bellinger is off the market (apparently), and the "insiders" have been posting that San Diego isn't going to be getting rid of bats, either.
I mean, I guess the Yankees could try to overwhelm STL for Arrenado, but he has a full-NT and that could be an obstacle since he's reportedly let it be known that he'd waive it for the Dodgers.
Standing pat seems like the best course, and hope Judge is the tide that lifts all boats

 

[chawson]

A few reports out there have mention they're interested in Dylan Carlson, who'd be a FA in 2027. That would be a long-term buy, and obviously an upgrade over their left field situation.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

But who is out there on offense at this point that would be an upgrade? Bellinger is off the market (apparently), and the "insiders" have been posting that San Diego isn't going to be getting rid of bats, either.
I mean, I guess the Yankees could try to overwhelm STL for Arrenado, but he has a full-NT and that could be an obstacle since he's reportedly let it be known that he'd waive it for the Dodgers.
Standing pat seems like the best course, and hope Judge is the tide that lifts all boats

We are set to lose players to free agency who we could get prospects for. I would let IKF go, Severino, German, Bader...Keeping them would be insane to me. I don't think any of them would materially change our chances to win this year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We are set to lose players to free agency who we could get prospects for. I would let IKF go, Severino, German, Bader...Keeping them would be insane to me. I don't think any of them would materially change our chances to win this year.

Oh, I agree. I was just saying that there's not much out there to buy for immediate help

 

[jon abbey]

I mentioned Carlson in post 2 above but he seems like a guy like Clint Frazier, big prospect pedigree but not translating it to MLB and starting to run out of chances.

 

[jon abbey]

Domingo German was unable to start tonight with 'armpit discomfort', he evidently could not even throw a ball at all yesterday. He went for tests and got it uncramped or clenched or whatever, and he came in midgame tonight to throw 5 scoreless innings, 5 2 0 0 2 4 on 72 pitches, impressive albeit in garbage time (nine of us would be as likely to rally from 5-1 down as this hibernating NY lineup). Fingers crossed it was his last appearance ever for NY.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Domingo German was unable to start tonight with 'armpit discomfort', he evidently could not even throw a ball at all yesterday. He went for tests and got it uncramped or clenched or whatever, and he came in midgame tonight to throw 5 scoreless innings, 5 2 0 0 2 4 on 72 pitches, impressive albeit in garbage time (nine of us would be as likely to rally from 5-1 down as this hibernating NY lineup). Fingers crossed it was his last appearance ever for NY.

Another absolutely ridiculous decision. Keep Brito in for 5 runs and then go to the guy who could not start. I am so beyond tired of the decision making process here.

 

[jon abbey]

Another absolutely ridiculous decision. Keep Brito in for 5 runs and then go to the guy who could not start. I am so beyond tired of the decision making process here.

I mean, I think he couldn't move his neck and then it loosened up an hour or so later, plus some negative tests probably helped everyone feel better. I'm pretty sure we've all been humans long enough to know that there's a good chance that's how it went down, Boone will presumably explain in the latest post-mortem coming up.

Not everything is idiocy and incompetence, there's bad luck mixed in too.

 

[jon abbey]

I think we're going to get some moves now:

no please on Tommy Pham, just bring up Florial or Pereira or both.

OK if you really think so but I'm not optimistic on Dylan Carlson.

yes please on Gleyber to MIA for young pitching, play Peraza every day.

yes please on German and/or Severino for whatever they can get, Severino needs a fresh start somewhere and German has one year of control left.

I'd also be OK with trading 1-2 relievers for useful returns, even Holmes or King or whoever a team most wants. Cashman is so good at reloading here, so sell high on some of them, Loaisiga and maybe Luis Gil coming back soon too.

 

[terrynever]

Rizzo smoked a single off the RF fence tonight, 108 mph off the bat, about four feet off the ground. Not high enough to clear the fence. How often do you see that?

 

[jon abbey]

Another absolutely ridiculous decision. Keep Brito in for 5 runs and then go to the guy who could not start. I am so beyond tired of the decision making process here.

Boone is explicitly explaining this and it is confusing, he was fully cleared to go by 6 PM and had done some test throwing even, but Boone is acting like the timeline then made it impossible for him to start the game at 7 (maybe true? I have no idea).

So maybe incompetence after all?

 

[jon abbey]

Honestly Cashman should make maybe five deals in the next 20 hours, a big day in his career actually IMO. I am not optimistic he will rise to the challenge.

 

[terrynever]

No deals? The Yankees do not matter this year. And they are trending down. That’s the real problem, imho.

Spoke too soon.

COMPLETED TRADE: The New York Yankees are acquiring right-handed reliever Keynan Middleton from the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.

 

[jarules1185]

No deals? The Yankees do not matter this year. And they are trending down. That’s the real problem, imho.

Spoke too soon.

COMPLETED TRADE: The New York Yankees are acquiring right-handed reliever Keynan Middleton from the Chicago White Sox, sources tell ESPN.

It's hard to understand what the vision for the team is now. The Mets have been super volatile, but they seem like they're trying to achieve a clear objective.

 

[terrynever]

It's hard to understand what the vision for the team is now. The Mets have been super volatile, but they seem like they're trying to achieve a clear objective.

Yanks have had a nice run since 2016 but more was expected. Only Judge has gotten better over the years.

 

[jon abbey]

They need to entirely clean house management-wise, but they probably never will with Hal in charge. At least they didn’t trade prospects this year, besides Carela.

 

[terrynever]

They need to entirely clean house management-wise, but they probably never will with Hal in charge. At least they didn’t trade prospects this year, besides Carela.

How many of the numerous Yankee prospects over the past decade have proven to have some value?

If Florial had success at the big league level, that would have been a huge lift. Then you don’t trade Monty for Bader.

 

[jon abbey]

Volpe is still on track for a 3-4 bWAR season despite all of his troubles, but that's another major issue for NY, they often don't give their prospects a chance.

I have never said this before, but Cashman needs to go.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Volpe is still on track for a 3-4 bWAR season despite all of his troubles, but that's another major issue for NY, they often don't give their prospects a chance.

I have never said this before, but Cashman needs to go.

Agree. I'm done with Cashman. The comments from anonymous sources about trades not lining up and the Yankees in wonderland about valuing what they had are gut punches for me. What are we doing here? This is the first time in 10 years I've said "the plan doesn't make sense."

 

[EvilEmpire]

The wheels came off this season, that's for sure. It's going to take a little more than that before I'm convinced there is someone better than Cashman to run the show.

Boone's gone though. For sure.

I'd like to know what the decision-making dynamics behind the scenes really looks like. I suspect Cashman likes Boone in part because he's a yes man. If so, maybe a stronger voice in the manager's seat to push back and challenge what the front office is selling would be a good thing. And if Cashman doesn't like his power being diluted a little bit, well, maybe that's a reason to part ways.

But all that could easily be wrong. Who knows. Hopefully Hal does.

 

[jon abbey]

The wheels came off this season, that's for sure. It's going to take a little more than that before I'm convinced there is someone better than Cashman to run the show.

Boone's gone though. For sure.

I'd like to know what the decision-making dynamics behind the scenes really looks like. I suspect Cashman likes Boone in part because he's a yes man. If so, maybe a stronger voice in the manager's seat to push back and challenge what the front office is selling would be a good thing. And if Cashman doesn't like his power being diluted a little bit, well, maybe that's a reason to part ways.

But all that could easily be wrong. Who knows. Hopefully Hal does.

I don't think Boone is any worse than he's been since day 1, I think he's been quite constant in that he is a bad in-game manager and a superb press secretary, one who never loses his cool really (in press conferences, he definitely does with umps) no matter how dumb or ill-informed the questions or how frustrated he must be.

But if Boone is still actually making in-game decisions like an old school manager, as opposed to the front office or his coaches (we have no idea as EE said), that is completely on Cashman also IMO as again it has been clear since literally before Cashman hired him that Aaron Boone was the guy down the hall from you at work who was friendly with and nice to everyone, hard to dislike, never actually contributed anything new or insightful, and then one day got promoted over all of his better qualified co-workers. Then later you learned that both his father and his grandfather had worked for decades at the same company...

 

[jon abbey]

This is promising at least:

View: https://twitter.com/BrendanKutyNJ/status/1686527652327284736


The only young player Cashman has been aggressive with recently is Volpe, Pereira just got to AAA a few weeks ago. He was born the same month as Volpe (April 2001, yes we're all old) and outperformed Volpe as teammates in high A in 2021 (1.030 OPS to Volpe's .978). He is behind Volpe because he couldn't stay healthy until 2022 so he didn't have much pro experience and he needed ABs, just 478 total PAs from 2018-2021 (no 2020 for any minor leagues) but now he is up to 720 in 2022/23 combined and has been even better in AAA than AA, 22 RBIs in 19 games in the middle of the order.

https://www.mlb.com/player/everson-pereira-677592?stats=career-r-hitting-minors&year=2023

 

[jon abbey]

Now that we are past the deadline, the best thing that could possibly happen to this franchise is for Judge and Cole to go together to Boone and tell him it's long past time for the ridiculously antiquated and patronizing facial hair rules to be brought into line with the other 29 teams. I think so often about NY going after Luis Castillo at the deadline last year, were they really going to make him cut off his amazing hair to have the grand privilege of joining the Yankees?

Hockey teams have playoff beards, that is the only thing I think that has a chance of waking up this collection of sleepwalking zombies. Let me know if you need my Venmo, Brian.