Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
22,834
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Playing around with this, seems like the most likely outcome with a win is still the 4 spot, which means a clear path to either a top 3 QB, MHJr, or the top OT in the draft (eh). However there are still ways we could fall a spot or two lower.

A loss, and the 3 is the likely landing spot.

If you are one of those types who are hoping the Pats get the 2 spot, root for the Jets and the Falcons (there may be other ways but thats one).
 
Last edited:

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
Guessing that Penix isn't going to be available at the top of the 2nd round now?
Let's see him against Michigan next week. If he tears them up, then maybe he's in play for a trade down, grab him mid-first kinda deal.

But, man, he dropped dimes all over the place, didn't he?
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,223
A Falcons win over the Saints is pretty important

The team has flip flopped back and forth between QBs, and it's not clear who starts this Sunday (I think it will be Heinicke). Amazingly the Falcons (7-9) can still win the division with a win and Bucs loss so I'd like to think they have strong motivation for the game.

Saints have a bunch of injuries, so I am hopeful of this one
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Guessing that Penix isn't going to be available at the top of the 2nd round now?
Hard to say, someone might jump into the late 1st for him given QB need around the league, but as good as he looked last night, teams have 5 years of tape on him and nobody is going off one game. He still has real flaws. Also worth noting as many have that Penix has a chance to not be on a bunch of boards at all once he has medicals, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries to look at, that alone might keep him out of the 1st (or maybe even 2nd). It's pretty early in the offseason process, but one thing is that QB tends to have guys rise and fall outside the top guys. Richardson's "rise" (not really, more public perception than any change in what teams actually thought) and Levis' "fall" are good examples.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,223
Playing around with this, seems like the most likely outcome with a win is still the 4 spot, which means a clear path to either a top 3 QB, MHJr, or the top OT in the draft (eh). However there are still ways we could fall a spot or two lower.

A loss, and the 3 is the likely landing spot.

If you are one of those types who are hoping the Pats get the 2 spot, root for the Jets and the Falcons (there may be other ways but thats one).
I can't make a scenario where they drop to #6. I think they are bounded 2-5
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
Penix is a real wildcard. He could go in the back half of round 1 or slide into the 50-75 range.

he looked great last night but that’s basically who he’s been all year. A lot of teams will be scared off by his medicals, some teams might question whether or not he can produce without terrific WR, he has Josh Allen-esque (as a prospect) tendency to throw most of his passes with the same trajectory and speed which might concern some teams.

he kind of reminds me of a modern style Drew Bledsoe Not just because of the school; he can throw a beautiful deep ball but he doesn’t process quite as quickly as you’d like and some of those passes over the middle or shorter to the sidelines are just gunned in there without the right level of touch or elevation.

With clean medicals, he’d probably be a late round 1 pick. Enough good stuff to think he could potentially be “the” guy but some of his skill set is definitely lacking to the point of not being a top end QB prospect (worthy of top 10-15 pick).

more so than the 4 guys ahead of him, he really needs to go to an offense which has a lot of pieces in place at WR and the OL. I don’t think he can create as much on his own and his strength is going to be vertical passing. I think a reasonable upside comp for him would be Joe Flacco.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Here's an interesting hypo.....

Let's say the Patriots finish 4 or 5, Chicago loses week 17.

Chicago decides they are moving on from Fields and drafting a QB. WAS is drafting a QB, you either don't like the last of the top 3 QBs, or someone ahead of you is taking him......

What about a trade down from 4 or 5 to 10 with Chicago?

Patriots send out 5, Chicago sends 10, Justin Fields and a future pick (probably a 2nd maybe Carolina's).

Chicago gets to take both Williams and a T or WR. Patriots get a QB and still in range for a top prospect (one of the top 3 Tackles, 2nd WR, one of the top edge guys, Bowers) and you still have your 2nd to scoop up the 2nd tier of WR/OT at the top of the 2nd, or you can trade back into the 1st for a faller.
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
There’s hopefully no way MHJ doesn’t go in the top 3, right? So, even at #4 we get one of the three QBs?

it would certainly be a terrible outcome to miss out on the top 3 QBs in a 3 QB draft.

If I was Chicago, I’d trade the #1 pick for a haul and surround Fields with weapons. Those rookie QBs are not guaranteed to be better than him in the long term and certainly won’t be in the short term.
I wouldn’t assume that BB or the new GM would have the #3 QB as the 3rd or 4th (including Harrison) prospect on the board. I think there’s definitely a world where whoever is drafting 4th opts for Fashanu and one of the QB slides a spot or two.

Put another way, of the teams in play for a top 4 pick - including those who might want to trade up like Las Vegas -they might only like 2 of the QB. I think the veteran QB merry go round in March, the final draft order, and the order in which the first 2 guys go will be big determining factors on how high that 3rd guy goes.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
14,382
Boulder, CO
Penix is a real wildcard. He could go in the back half of round 1 or slide into the 50-75 range.

he looked great last night but that’s basically who he’s been all year. A lot of teams will be scared off by his medicals, some teams might question whether or not he can produce without terrific WR, he has Josh Allen-esque (as a prospect) tendency to throw most of his passes with the same trajectory and speed which might concern some teams.

he kind of reminds me of a modern style Drew Bledsoe Not just because of the school; he can throw a beautiful deep ball but he doesn’t process quite as quickly as you’d like and some of those passes over the middle or shorter to the sidelines are just gunned in there without the right level of touch or elevation.

With clean medicals, he’d probably be a late round 1 pick. Enough good stuff to think he could potentially be “the” guy but some of his skill set is definitely lacking to the point of not being a top end QB prospect (worthy of top 10-15 pick).

more so than the 4 guys ahead of him, he really needs to go to an offense which has a lot of pieces in place at WR and the OL. I don’t think he can create as much on his own and his strength is going to be vertical passing. I think a reasonable upside comp for him would be Joe Flacco.
Interesting. I thought he put himself into the top ten with last nights performance, but I consistently know nothing about where people will get drafted.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
47,881
Hartford, CT
If Falcons win they get 2.
I'm not sure if there are other scenarios but that's the one I have found
Not quite. There are also four other games, PIT/BAL, DEN/LV, CHI/GB, and HOU/IND, that will impact the SOS tiebreaker between Washington and NE. ATL/NO is the most impactful of the five, but ATL winning doesn’t guarantee that the Pats tie or win the SOS tiebreaker. If Atlanta wins, the Pats would still need at least two of the other four games break their way, so two of CHI, BAL, HOU, and DEN would need to win.
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
Here's an interesting hypo.....

Let's say the Patriots finish 4 or 5, Chicago loses week 17.

Chicago decides they are moving on from Fields and drafting a QB. WAS is drafting a QB, you either don't like the last of the top 3 QBs, or someone ahead of you is taking him......

What about a trade down from 4 or 5 to 10 with Chicago?

Patriots send out 5, Chicago sends 10, Justin Fields and a future pick (probably a 2nd maybe Carolina's).

Chicago gets to take both Williams and a T or WR. Patriots get a QB and still in range for a top prospect (one of the top 3 Tackles, 2nd WR, one of the top edge guys, Bowers) and you still have your 2nd to scoop up the 2nd tier of WR/OT at the top of the 2nd, or you can trade back into the 1st for a faller.
Given the looming 5th year option on Fields and the fact that he only really looks good throwing to DJ Moore (and the Pats are unlikely to have a WR of that quality), I don’t see a trade for him making sense.

if they’re not sold on QB3 and Harrison is off the board, a trade down is definitely a good option but I don’t know that Fields really solves their QB problem.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Interesting. I thought he put himself into the top ten with last nights performance, but I consistently know nothing about where people will get drafted.
Single games never move guys. But as to his weaknesses... medical obviously but people have some concerns about his consistency on intermediate and shorter throws, his release time, ball placement, anticipation and his decision making. Everyone knew he had a nice deep ball and threw lasers. He did show some really nice pocket mobility last night which some had concerns about.

I know a few weeks ago Brugler had a column that touched on him and he said he talked to a few scouts about Penix and none had him round 1 or round 2. Last night was probably his best game of his career though, which is nice to see against one of the tougher matchups he's had.
 

jtn46

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 10, 2004
9,858
Norwalk, CT
Given the looming 5th year option on Fields and the fact that he only really looks good throwing to DJ Moore (and the Pats are unlikely to have a WR of that quality), I don’t see a trade for him making sense.

if they’re not sold on QB3 and Harrison is off the board, a trade down is definitely a good option but I don’t know that Fields really solves their QB problem.
Regardless of who the next QB is for the Patriots, they need to give him better weapons than they gave Mac.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,735
Given the looming 5th year option on Fields and the fact that he only really looks good throwing to DJ Moore (and the Pats are unlikely to have a WR of that quality), I don’t see a trade for him making sense.

if they’re not sold on QB3 and Harrison is off the board, a trade down is definitely a good option but I don’t know that Fields really solves their QB problem.
I think he's looked better as they adjusted the offense, but one of the reasons to consider that trade is that it lets you build up the surrounding cast as well. So if you make that trade, you come out of the draft with likely a top tier passcatcher and a top tier OT (if you got OT 1st, you're looking at one of Alt, Fashanu or Latham with Egukba, THomas, Franklin or Polk. If you got passcatcher 1st you're looking at Nabers, Bowers, Odunze or Coleman with Suamataia, Morgan, Guyton or Paul). You also have FA with a ton of money.
It would be entirely possible to go into next year with Fields at QB and a WR corps including (Rookie), Higgins (or Evans), Douglas, Bourne, and a shored up O-line.
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
Not sure if serious...
just in terms of his high end ability to throw vertically and lacking the touch on some of his other throws, and his reactions under pressure.

Penix is obviously not a statue like Bledsoe was, but again, modern era version. He’s a guy who is at his best standing in a clean(ish) pocket and just ripping the ball downfield. I’m assuming you’ve watched a lot of Washington this year, and I’m sure you’ve seen him drop a dime 30 yards downfield into Odunze or Polk’s hands and then come back the next play and badly overthrow a ball to Westover. In the NFL, a lot of those overthrows over the middle are going to end up intereceptions. And of the 5 top QBs in this draft, he definitely has the worst touch on the soft stuff to the flats. He doesn’t get proper elevation on some of those throws to the RB’s and his overall ball placement isn’t great. He has 3 great WR’s who haul in a lot of passes which I think are going to end up picks or deflections in the pros.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
just in terms of his high end ability to throw vertically and lacking the touch on some of his other throws, and his reactions under pressure.
I was referring to the fact that you said it wasn't because of the school.

Beldsoe and Penix attended different schools.
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
Regardless of who the next QB is for the Patriots, they need to give him better weapons than they gave Mac.
They need to, but better weapons doesn’t necessarily correlate with high end weapons. And Fields has only really looked good with Moore. His completion %, INT % and passer rating and significantly worse, like garbage tier bad, going to any other non-Moore
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
They need to, but better weapons doesn’t necessarily correlate with high end weapons. And Fields has only really looked good with Moore. His completion %, INT % and passer rating and significantly worse, like garbage tier bad, going to any other non-Moore
Cole Kmet has 70 catches and if you add a guy like Harrison there, it makes some of the completions easier to everyone else.
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
Cole Kmet has 70 catches and if you add a guy like Harrison there, it makes some of the completions easier to everyone else.
In this scenario mentioned, the Pats wouldn’t have Harrison

Kmet has catches sure, 21 of which came in the 3 weeks Fields missed and going into this last week, Fields’ rating throwing to Kmet was hovering around 80

he’s a good TE but Fields doesn’t look particularly good throwing to him. Of course, the Pats don’t have a TE on that level (although I suppose Henry could be argued to be in the same general tier of players, it remains to be seen if Henry will even be back)
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
In this scenario mentioned, the Pats wouldn’t have Harrison
I understand that. My point is that the Bears could be looking at MHJ and not a QB because Fields has a dangerous receiver in Moore, a decent TE in Kmet, and adding MHJ to that should help all of them.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,716
Philadelphia
Here's an interesting hypo.....

Let's say the Patriots finish 4 or 5, Chicago loses week 17.

Chicago decides they are moving on from Fields and drafting a QB. WAS is drafting a QB, you either don't like the last of the top 3 QBs, or someone ahead of you is taking him......

What about a trade down from 4 or 5 to 10 with Chicago?

Patriots send out 5, Chicago sends 10, Justin Fields and a future pick (probably a 2nd maybe Carolina's).

Chicago gets to take both Williams and a T or WR. Patriots get a QB and still in range for a top prospect (one of the top 3 Tackles, 2nd WR, one of the top edge guys, Bowers) and you still have your 2nd to scoop up the 2nd tier of WR/OT at the top of the 2nd, or you can trade back into the 1st for a faller.
If Chicago can get a 2nd or high 3rd for Fields from some other team, are they really interested in this kind of deal? They have a ton of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, they don't have a pick between 10 and 76 as things currently stand, and so the same rationale that makes moving from 5 to 10 attractive for the Pats (ie, you can still get a very good OT or WR prospect at 10) would seem to apply to them in reverse. Unless they're absolutely in love with a guy who falls to 5 my suspicion is that they'd prefer to just deal Fields for a day two pick.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,900
Hingham, MA
Not quite. There are also four other games, PIT/BAL, DEN/LV, CHI/GB, and HOU/IND, that will impact the SOS tiebreaker between Washington and NE. ATL/NO is the most impactful of the five, but ATL winning doesn’t guarantee that the Pats tie or win the SOS tiebreaker. If Atlanta wins, the Pats would still need at least two of the other four games break their way, so two of CHI, BAL, HOU, and DEN would need to win.
Thanks, this is super helpful. I will need a cheat card for Sunday. Of course, it all goes out the window when the Pats win 30-0.
 

doc

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
4,516
I don’t know, the Jets beating us, getting us the #2 pick and them the #9 pick is oh so Jetsian
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
21,557
Oh where have you gone Mark Henderson, Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes to you
Woo, woo, woo
Sadly, he died long ago.

EDIT: Whoa! I'm wrong, it appears. From the article linked below:

"No, the legacy of “The Snowplow Game” is it’s part of football folklore, celebrated in one corner of this country and reviled in another. Patriots’ fans remember Mark Henderson before they remember John Smith. In fact, before the last regular-season game at Foxboro Stadium on Dec. 22, 2001, the Patriots thought it would be a good idea to have Henderson re-enact the Snowplow incident.

Only one problem: They heard he was dead.

He wasn’t. Another Mark Henderson, who was the same age, grew up in the same area and had a criminal record passed away in the 1990s. When a CBS producer finally located Henderson and his identity was confirmed, he was wheeled out prior to the Foxboro finale and introduced to the crowd.

He was given a standing ovation."


https://fansided.com/2021/07/26/patriots-beat-dolphins-convict-1982-snowplow-game/
 

pappymojo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2010
6,758
What an inflection point for this team and organization. Kraft has been living off past success just as much as BB has. My greatest fear is that BB has the vote of confidence from Kraft, but his personal interest in winning football games immedately leads him to make decisions at the top of the draft that are not consonant with the long term interests of the organization.

If BB is picking in 2024, he better not be picking for his job or himself. That only comes with a Kraft reassurance for the next 3-5 years. Otherwise, shake hands, part ways and start anew.
I have no fear that Belichick would put his legacy above the organization’s best interests. None.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,223
Thanks, this is super helpful. I will need a cheat card for Sunday. Of course, it all goes out the window when the Pats win 30-0.
Easy cheat card:

**Most important!**
Pats loss vs Jets​

**Next most important!** - UPDATED
Commanders win vs Cowboys​
Cardinals win vs Seattle​

**Critical for SOS (counts double)**
Falcons win over Saints​

**Get some breathing room** - UPDATED
Giants win vs Eagles​

**Helps with SOS in all scenarios**
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

**Can help or hurt depending on scenarios, so probably not worth paying attention to**
Bears vs Packers​
Broncos vs Raiders​


And summarized by game-set

Saturday:
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

Sun 1PM:
Jets over Pats​
Falcons over Saints​

Sun 4:25PM:
Giants/Commanders/Cardinals to WIN​
 
Last edited:

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Easy cheat card:

**Most important!**
Pats loss vs Jets​

**Next most important!**
Commanders loss vs Cowboys​
Cardinals loss vs Seattle​

**Critical for SOS (counts double)**
Falcons win over Saints​

**Get some breathing room**
Giants loss vs Eagles​

**Helps with SOS in all scenarios**
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

**Can help or hurt depending on scenarios, so probably not worth paying attention to**
Bears vs Packers​
Broncos vs Raiders​


And summarized by game-set

Saturday:
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

Sun 1PM:
Jets over Pats​
Falcons over Saints​

Sun 4:25PM:
Giants/Commanders/Cardinals to lose​
Don't we want the Commanders to win??
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
16,173
Here's an interesting hypo.....

Let's say the Patriots finish 4 or 5, Chicago loses week 17.

Chicago decides they are moving on from Fields and drafting a QB. WAS is drafting a QB, you either don't like the last of the top 3 QBs, or someone ahead of you is taking him......

What about a trade down from 4 or 5 to 10 with Chicago?

Patriots send out 5, Chicago sends 10, Justin Fields and a future pick (probably a 2nd maybe Carolina's).

Chicago gets to take both Williams and a T or WR. Patriots get a QB and still in range for a top prospect (one of the top 3 Tackles, 2nd WR, one of the top edge guys, Bowers) and you still have your 2nd to scoop up the 2nd tier of WR/OT at the top of the 2nd, or you can trade back into the 1st for a faller.
I think the other day you proposed Fields for a 3rd and a conditional pick. If we are calling that Fields' value it seems to me the drop from 5 to 10 should deliver more than that. That's a big drop. I can live with Fields and a top 5 pick. I can live with Minshew, and a few other guys, and a top 5 pick. Mostly I need Mac gone and Zappe as a back-up.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
35,735
I think the other day you proposed Fields for a 3rd and a conditional pick. If we are calling that Fields' value it seems to me the drop from 5 to 10 should deliver more than that. That's a big drop. I can live with Fields and a top 5 pick. I can live with Minshew, and a few other guys, and a top 5 pick. Mostly I need Mac gone and Zappe as a back-up.
Yeah, based on the trade charts, Fields and 10 is around a future 2nd or so short. I would guess there would be a premium in there, but you'd likely be looking at 10, Fields, CAR 2024 2nd and maybe a swap somewhere (3rd for 5th, 3rd for 4th).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
43,975
AZ
According to the draft position points chart I just looked at, the difference between the third and fifth picks is 500 points. 500 points equates to the 40th pick in the draft. So the game against the Jets is basically for a high second round draft pick in value.

You've done so much for us, Bill. How about you do this one last thing here? Lose to the fucking Jets already.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,900
Hingham, MA
Easy cheat card:

**Most important!**
Pats loss vs Jets​

**Next most important!** - UPDATED
Commanders win vs Cowboys​
Cardinals win vs Seattle​

**Critical for SOS (counts double)**
Falcons win over Saints​

**Get some breathing room** - UPDATED
Giants win vs Eagles​

**Helps with SOS in all scenarios**
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

**Can help or hurt depending on scenarios, so probably not worth paying attention to**
Bears vs Packers​
Broncos vs Raiders​


And summarized by game-set

Saturday:
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

Sun 1PM:
Jets over Pats​
Falcons over Saints​

Sun 4:25PM:
Giants/Commanders/Cardinals to WIN​
I need to print this out! Thanks!!
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,223
Jets have very little incentive to lose at least. Looks like they are #8 now, and would only drop to 10 with a win
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,716
Philadelphia
Easy cheat card:

**Most important!**
Pats loss vs Jets​

**Next most important!** - UPDATED
Commanders win vs Cowboys​
Cardinals win vs Seattle​

**Critical for SOS (counts double)**
Falcons win over Saints​

**Get some breathing room** - UPDATED
Giants win vs Eagles​

**Helps with SOS in all scenarios**
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

**Can help or hurt depending on scenarios, so probably not worth paying attention to**
Bears vs Packers​
Broncos vs Raiders​


And summarized by game-set

Saturday:
Ravens over Steelers​
Texans over Colts​

Sun 1PM:
Jets over Pats​
Falcons over Saints​

Sun 4:25PM:
Giants/Commanders/Cardinals to WIN​
Thanks wilked, this is awesome.

Should I take it from this list that we don't have to worry about a scenario in which the Pats (current SOS .518) win and end up falling behind either the Chargers (.526) or Titans (.529) due to strength of schedule? I don't have a good sense of how much SOS can plausibly change with one weekend of games.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,223
Thanks wilked, this is awesome.

Should I take it from this list that we don't have to worry about a scenario in which the Pats (current SOS .518) win and end up falling behind either the Chargers (.526) or Titans (.529) due to strength of schedule? I don't have a good sense of how much SOS can plausibly change with one weekend of games.
I used the simulator above and had them lose every 'meaningful' game for SOS, and I couldn't get them lower than 5 seed. I haven't seen anyone else proclaim 5th seed as worst case, but based upon my trials as noted I feel confident saying that