Playing around with this, seems like the most likely outcome with a win is still the 4 spot, which means a clear path to either a top 3 QB, MHJr, or the top OT in the draft (eh). However there are still ways we could fall a spot or two lower.
Let's see him against Michigan next week. If he tears them up, then maybe he's in play for a trade down, grab him mid-first kinda deal.
Hard to say, someone might jump into the late 1st for him given QB need around the league, but as good as he looked last night, teams have 5 years of tape on him and nobody is going off one game. He still has real flaws. Also worth noting as many have that Penix has a chance to not be on a bunch of boards at all once he has medicals, 2 knee and 2 shoulder surgeries to look at, that alone might keep him out of the 1st (or maybe even 2nd). It's pretty early in the offseason process, but one thing is that QB tends to have guys rise and fall outside the top guys. Richardson's "rise" (not really, more public perception than any change in what teams actually thought) and Levis' "fall" are good examples.
If Falcons win they get 2.
I wouldn’t assume that BB or the new GM would have the #3 QB as the 3rd or 4th (including Harrison) prospect on the board. I think there’s definitely a world where whoever is drafting 4th opts for Fashanu and one of the QB slides a spot or two.
Interesting. I thought he put himself into the top ten with last nights performance, but I consistently know nothing about where people will get drafted.
Not quite. There are also four other games, PIT/BAL, DEN/LV, CHI/GB, and HOU/IND, that will impact the SOS tiebreaker between Washington and NE. ATL/NO is the most impactful of the five, but ATL winning doesn’t guarantee that the Pats tie or win the SOS tiebreaker. If Atlanta wins, the Pats would still need at least two of the other four games break their way, so two of CHI, BAL, HOU, and DEN would need to win.
Given the looming 5th year option on Fields and the fact that he only really looks good throwing to DJ Moore (and the Pats are unlikely to have a WR of that quality), I don’t see a trade for him making sense.
Single games never move guys. But as to his weaknesses... medical obviously but people have some concerns about his consistency on intermediate and shorter throws, his release time, ball placement, anticipation and his decision making. Everyone knew he had a nice deep ball and threw lasers. He did show some really nice pocket mobility last night which some had concerns about.
Regardless of who the next QB is for the Patriots, they need to give him better weapons than they gave Mac.
I think he's looked better as they adjusted the offense, but one of the reasons to consider that trade is that it lets you build up the surrounding cast as well. So if you make that trade, you come out of the draft with likely a top tier passcatcher and a top tier OT (if you got OT 1st, you're looking at one of Alt, Fashanu or Latham with Egukba, THomas, Franklin or Polk. If you got passcatcher 1st you're looking at Nabers, Bowers, Odunze or Coleman with Suamataia, Morgan, Guyton or Paul). You also have FA with a ton of money.
just in terms of his high end ability to throw vertically and lacking the touch on some of his other throws, and his reactions under pressure.
I was referring to the fact that you said it wasn't because of the school.
They need to, but better weapons doesn’t necessarily correlate with high end weapons. And Fields has only really looked good with Moore. His completion %, INT % and passer rating and significantly worse, like garbage tier bad, going to any other non-Moore
Cole Kmet has 70 catches and if you add a guy like Harrison there, it makes some of the completions easier to everyone else.
not enough coffee this morning evidently. Washington/Washington State blur together like all those Florida schools sometimes
In this scenario mentioned, the Pats wouldn’t have Harrison
I understand that. My point is that the Bears could be looking at MHJ and not a QB because Fields has a dangerous receiver in Moore, a decent TE in Kmet, and adding MHJ to that should help all of them.
If Chicago can get a 2nd or high 3rd for Fields from some other team, are they really interested in this kind of deal? They have a ton of holes to fill on both sides of the ball, they don't have a pick between 10 and 76 as things currently stand, and so the same rationale that makes moving from 5 to 10 attractive for the Pats (ie, you can still get a very good OT or WR prospect at 10) would seem to apply to them in reverse. Unless they're absolutely in love with a guy who falls to 5 my suspicion is that they'd prefer to just deal Fields for a day two pick.
Thanks, this is super helpful. I will need a cheat card for Sunday. Of course, it all goes out the window when the Pats win 30-0.
Oh where have you gone Mark Henderson, Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes to you
Sadly, he died long ago.
I have no fear that Belichick would put his legacy above the organization’s best interests. None.
Easy cheat card:
yeah I think that section is backwards, we want WAS and ARI to win not lose
I think the other day you proposed Fields for a 3rd and a conditional pick. If we are calling that Fields' value it seems to me the drop from 5 to 10 should deliver more than that. That's a big drop. I can live with Fields and a top 5 pick. I can live with Minshew, and a few other guys, and a top 5 pick. Mostly I need Mac gone and Zappe as a back-up.
Yeah, based on the trade charts, Fields and 10 is around a future 2nd or so short. I would guess there would be a premium in there, but you'd likely be looking at 10, Fields, CAR 2024 2nd and maybe a swap somewhere (3rd for 5th, 3rd for 4th).
Thanks wilked, this is awesome.
I used the simulator above and had them lose every 'meaningful' game for SOS, and I couldn't get them lower than 5 seed. I haven't seen anyone else proclaim 5th seed as worst case, but based upon my trials as noted I feel confident saying that
