Sony also had injury flags that they ignored. Success with this approach seems limited to Gronk, and to a lesser extent Chandler Jones. I think it's a consequence of picking late in R1 and hoping to hit. But it's dicey at best.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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That is almost a certainty.
But I figure as long as we take a QB, Bill's approval rating goes back over 50%. If he trades down and takes a tackle at 8 and picks up #42 or something, there will be a nonzero number of people heading to Foxboro with actual pitchforks.
If the Pats pick #3 and end up with MHJ and then, say, JJ McCarthy in the second round, I think most fans will be thrilled with that. It'll be easy to sell the fan base on the HOF caliber traits of Harrison, and hey, the last time we picked a QB from Michigan it turned out pretty good.
But yeah, trading down to get the #3 OT and add a project at WR in the mid 40s will be.....not ideal at all.
I don't recall too many people clamoring for Rick Mirer last time we had the #1 pick. I'm sure there were a few but the vast majority were quite happy.
It is pretty impressive that barring what would be a terrible winning streak down the stretch NE will have a top 10 selection of their own for the first time since 2001. Mayo was the last top 10 pick but that was with SF's 1st that we traded for the previous year. Big Sey was drafted #6 overall back in 2001 to anchor the D for the first dynasty run. Hopefully we draft an offensive anchor this time and Borges can finally be happy.
This 1000%.
There's a thread in MBPC about the Celtics had Len Bias not done that thing, and it brings back a flood of memories from 1986. One of those memories was being so fucking grateful for even making a super bowl that nobody in my orbit was all that disappointed that the Bears treated us like flies on their windshield. Now, we'd have a bunch of very angry threads and calls for the heads of Alfredo Garcia among others.
I'd love to believe that this region and board could handle drafting the next Jerry Rice/Randy Moss at #3 and rolling the dice on a Daniels/McCarthy at #35, but I'm pretty sure that we'd get numerous threads recommending dementia screenings for BFB and RFK.
I don't think most would be that upset at that outcome, even if the QBs sucked we could see the reasoning. If they go DT and CB the region will lose it. But see Borges, Ron. We can be proven wrong. Just win some games.
Only one of these numbers - the INT rate - is any good. The rest are all pretty bad. Sub-60% completion isn't good, that's a mediocre Y/A, below conference average, and throwing 39 TDs in 34 games is awful.
This is part of the issue, though. If you're comparing Nix (or Penix, or Daniels) to say, Maye or Williams, who are all already good as true juniors (technically Maye is a RS Soph), it's not apples-to-apples.
So the real question is: What explains Nix's vast statistical improvement?
(a) He just matured into a much, much better QB?
(b) He moved out of the toughest conference in college football to a much easier one?
(c) He moved into a much better system for him to run?
What combination of all three of these is the answer? I doubt it's merely (b) and (c) without a heavy dose of (a).
And keep in mind: I'm not arguing FOR Nix. I'm just trying to get a handle on why a lot of people are down on him, because the numbers pop like crazy the past two seasons.
Sort of seems like j44 and C-D explained some of the concerns. You can say “but the numbers” and I get it, but I’m not sure you’re going to get a better answer.
Let's assume NE drafts after Maye and Caleb are selected and can choose between MHJ and Bowers. Both are widely considered the best at their respective positions and arguably the best over the last 3-5yrs. Now positional value would have you lean MHJ but there are a lot of good X that will be 1 tier below MHJ vs. the TE position where there might be 1 more drafted in the first 3-4 rds. Also have to consider that outside of arguably the greatest X receiver to ever play the game in Randy Moss, Bill & co have never had a lot of success developing an offense around an X compared to all the success they have had building a TE centered offense. If Bill is still running the show and there aren't any QBs available that he likes I can see him going Bowers over MHJ, that will be a fun debate if it comes to pass.
I'd get that but still be pretty depressed. The best X is so much more valuable than the best TE. I mean, unless anyone thinks that Bowers is literally Kelce.
Another possibility. SMU got me considering this one.
Let’s say Pats really like Daniels (or one of the other qbs) and trade out of 2 or 3 to 8-10 range, still get Daniels along with another 2 this year and a 2025 1st.
Now you’ve got a high 1 and two high 2s this year. You can get your QB, LT, WR in the top 40ish picks and go a long way toward the re-build.
Let’s say Pats really like Daniels (or one of the other qbs) and trade out of 2 or 3 to 8-10 range, still get Daniels along with another 2 this year and a 2025 1st.
Now you’ve got a high 1 and two high 2s this year. You can get your QB, LT, WR in the top 40ish picks and go a long way toward the re-build.
Yeah me too. But...consider position scarcity. They need both a WR1 and TE. If you could get MHJ and then be "stuck" with a lower-tier TE - OR you could get Bowers and another high level WR, which would you prefer? I think I'd still rather have MHJ and Gesicki or some lesser TE in the draft, because I'm that high on MHJ. But I can see the argument the other way. I just don't think that TE is as important a need right now as QB, WR, and OT.
I wouldn't even have a tight end on my board at all with a top 10 pick. Pitts, Hockenson, Ebron, Vernon Davis, Winslow—we've seen plenty of athletic monsters who were going to revolutionize the position and be the next Tony Gonzalez or whoever and for the most part they end up...fine to good. The league has not been good at identifying greatness at this position.
Even if a given WR1 and TE1 in a given draft had the potential for a similar level of greatness/production/ability to anchor an offense, the TE is less likely to reach that potential. Probably much less likely. Tight ends also usually suck in year 1 so you're burning a year right there while they learn how to block or attack a zone D or whatever.
And in the end a lot of the elite tight ends end up being the right combo of hands, route running, athleticism, team fit, overcoming injury concerns, and untapped or misunderstood potential—not the guys who test like gods and pop off the screen in turbocharged offenses using them spread out wide against helpless college defenses racking up stats. Your 3rd rd or later shot on like the 3rd TE taken seems far more likely to me to hit big or at least be adequate than a 3rd rd dart throw on the 10th WR taken.
Even if a given WR1 and TE1 in a given draft had the potential for a similar level of greatness/production/ability to anchor an offense, the TE is less likely to reach that potential. Probably much less likely. Tight ends also usually suck in year 1 so you're burning a year right there while they learn how to block or attack a zone D or whatever.
And in the end a lot of the elite tight ends end up being the right combo of hands, route running, athleticism, team fit, overcoming injury concerns, and untapped or misunderstood potential—not the guys who test like gods and pop off the screen in turbocharged offenses using them spread out wide against helpless college defenses racking up stats. Your 3rd rd or later shot on like the 3rd TE taken seems far more likely to me to hit big or at least be adequate than a 3rd rd dart throw on the 10th WR taken.
For sure I'm not taking TE over QB / WR / LT at that point of the draft either but I also don't want to undervalue the position, or more accurately I don't want to undervalue run blocking at the position. Having a TE who can 4.5 a 40 is great, but if you aren't some kind of differentiated threat in the run game then aren't you really just a plodding WR? Obviously setting both dials to 10 gets you Gronk and Bavarro, but I wonder if analytics has anything to say about being essentially one dimensional as a TE.
For example, what does Gesicki dictate to a defense better than any actual WR that is faster and quicker, almost by definition? Given the Pats roster construction he's simply one of the best options and we're certainly not turning anyone away at this point, but I'm confused sometimes by the value of our multi TE sets. The eye test (I'm admitting it) says if the o-line is cooking then we're good with the run game, and if the line is getting smoked it doesn't seem to matter much if Gesicki is in there. Simple question I guess, if one or both TEs are essentially paper tigers in the run game, whats the real point of the Pats 12 personnel and why structure an offense to do it?
In fairness I absolutely loathed Ray Berry for throwing that team under the bus. The '85 Pats absolutely outperformed any expectations that anyone had for them and they lost to one of the greatest defenses in NFL history (for reference the '85 Bears surrendered 25% of their points against in one game where Jim McMahon was doing his best to give points away with a bunch of INTs). Lost to history, thanks in part to Ray Berry's "My team lost 'cause they was on drugs!" nonsense, the Patriots were the only team to even score against the Bears that postseason.
I think an elite TE adds more value to an offense that has a dynamic X. It’s why the Tyreek/Kelce combo was so lethal (well, having Mahomes helped…) because Tyreek would open up the middle and Kelce is an incredibly difficult single cover.
If you remove Tyreek from the equation and downgrade QB from Mahomes to a simple mortal, I think the impact of Kelce is reduced.
I really like Bowers as a prospect but I also loved Kyle Pitts. If you drop a talented TE like Bowers into this shit show, it’ll be really hard for him to produce.
I'm a college football stats junkie, but honestly, there is so, so little information or predictive value to college stats translating to the NFL. So, so many factors at play, including level of competition, coaching, etc.
Look at a guy like Justin Fields or Bryce Young, etc. I mean, the starting QB for the Patriots the last 3 years threw for 4,500 yards, 77% completion rate, 11.2 Y/A, 40tds and 4 ints, rating of 203.1 his senior year.
Mahomes threw for 5,050 yards on only 65%, 41tds, 10ints and a rating of 157.0.
The GOAT in college, 4,700 yards, 30tds, 17 ints, a rating of 134.9 and he completed 62% of his passes.
Peyton Manning's senior year, 3,800 yards, 60% completion rate, 36td, 11int, 147.7 rating.
Herbert's senior year, 66%, 3,400 yards, 32tds, 6ints, 156.8 rating
Josh Allen over 2 seasons threw for 5,000 yards, an awful 56.2 comp%, 44tds, 21ints, 137.7 rating.
There's a lot of Baker Mayfields that light up the college football world, but don't translate to be consistently great in the NFL, and then there's guys for a myriad of reasons, that don't put up obscene numbers in college that turn into the best of the best.
My only exceptions are guys from small schools. Those guys like Cooper Kupp, Danny Woodhead, Chase Edmonds, Joe Dudek (wink), etc. better put up fucking obscene numbers given the competition they faced.
Edit: For the record, given all of the teams switching conferences recently, I think it's going to be harder than ever for scouting guys to figure out the level of competition these guys are playing against. I think it'll take a few years for that to shake out. Except the SEC, because the SEC is still and will still be stacked, along with top of the Big 10.
Look at a guy like Justin Fields or Bryce Young, etc. I mean, the starting QB for the Patriots the last 3 years threw for 4,500 yards, 77% completion rate, 11.2 Y/A, 40tds and 4 ints, rating of 203.1 his senior year.
Mahomes threw for 5,050 yards on only 65%, 41tds, 10ints and a rating of 157.0.
The GOAT in college, 4,700 yards, 30tds, 17 ints, a rating of 134.9 and he completed 62% of his passes.
Peyton Manning's senior year, 3,800 yards, 60% completion rate, 36td, 11int, 147.7 rating.
Herbert's senior year, 66%, 3,400 yards, 32tds, 6ints, 156.8 rating
Josh Allen over 2 seasons threw for 5,000 yards, an awful 56.2 comp%, 44tds, 21ints, 137.7 rating.
There's a lot of Baker Mayfields that light up the college football world, but don't translate to be consistently great in the NFL, and then there's guys for a myriad of reasons, that don't put up obscene numbers in college that turn into the best of the best.
My only exceptions are guys from small schools. Those guys like Cooper Kupp, Danny Woodhead, Chase Edmonds, Joe Dudek (wink), etc. better put up fucking obscene numbers given the competition they faced.
Edit: For the record, given all of the teams switching conferences recently, I think it's going to be harder than ever for scouting guys to figure out the level of competition these guys are playing against. I think it'll take a few years for that to shake out. Except the SEC, because the SEC is still and will still be stacked, along with top of the Big 10.
For sure some of our lack of depression after that game was that we knew that this Bears team was absurd. We had lower expectations. But we also wouldn't waltz around calling the GOAT coach a moron for a 4 year championship drought after 6 titles. 1986 us would laugh their balls off at 2023 us.
View: https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1728247230274933007
This is one of those "oh right college football is clown cars" throws that gets held up as an awesome play. Nix naked boot to the right, throws a duck across his body that is 10+ yards short of the WR, who comes back to it as the CB then falls down turning it into a TD.
This is one of those "oh right college football is clown cars" throws that gets held up as an awesome play. Nix naked boot to the right, throws a duck across his body that is 10+ yards short of the WR, who comes back to it as the CB then falls down turning it into a TD.
Yeah, although whether intentional or not he placed that ball perfectly where the DB had no shot. But in the NFL you ain’t making that throw unless you’re Mahomes. I do like Franklin from Oregon a lot though.
Anyone who watched Michigan-Ohio State yesterday got a glimpse of MHJ on the Patriots. He had a couple of nice plays, but was largely a non-factor since the Buckeyes QB couldn’t throw the ball.
After the Alabama game I went looking for a draft report on Jalen Milroe. I know he’s not likely for 2024, but what’s the intel on him?
But I've consistently been told here a QB is only as good as his weapons, it should be impossible for a great receiver to be impeded by below average QB play.
I mean, he did have 5 for 118 and a TD in a 6 point game. He didn't do that in garbage time.
As I think we've seen, NFL defenses can always take away a weapon. I'm sure I'm exaggerating, but the receivers room at Ohio State could probably replace everyone on the Patriots. I think MHJ would just be running around being frustrated on the Patriots.
As I said, he had some nice plays (the catch with the DB draped all over him was a great play). I just didn't feel like he was that much of a factor in the game without a QB who could make the right read and throw the ball on target.
They did not throw him the ball enough. When they did, he made plays. You can’t just shy away from a great talent like him. He’s not going to single handidly turn a team around, but he’s a piece that will go a long ways in getting you there. If I’m at 3 and had to choose between him, a tackle, or pretty much any other position I’d choose Harrison every time.
I think a tackle would be a horrible choice. Even if it was the BPA, it would be a disaster for the franchise from a fanbase perspective. Very few people watch a football game and get excited about the play of the LT. One of the big challenges for the Pats in recent years is that not only are they bad, but they have nothing to get excited about.
A franchise LT would be fine too considering they have 0 starting caliber tackles currently on the books for next year. But, passing on an All Pro level receiver like MHJ would be a bad, bad look for a team devoid of game changing skill guys. Really good tackles and WRs are expensive in draft capital or money, so getting one of them at the top of the draft is a must. This is provided they lose out on Williams or Maye.
The entire offensive line needs to be rebuilt. There are two players available in the top 6 or 7 that they could draft and solidify that LT position for the next ten years. I would be excited about that as a fan. If they aren’t in a position to draft one of the two QBs, I would be very happy if they took Fashanu or Alt.
I'd be thrilled with a franchise left tackle at 4 or later. If they're picking top 3 and chalk has remained the two QBs and MHjr, I'll be incredibly upset if they go off book. I suspect this will not be an unpopular take.
Unless Williams falls to #5 or wherever the Pats end up, no one you pick in that spot has a chance of turning the team around next year. If not MJH--whose feelings about it are kind of irrelevant since great players have been drafted by sucky teams forever--where do you start?
This team isn’t one player away. They need to hit multiple picks to be relevant. The worst thing they could do is draft a position because they think they need to.
If they are picking 3 then I want to see if a team is willing to give up a ton to move up for MHJ. If they are then they probably need to move the pick to stockpile a huge chunk of draft capital. If they can stay in the top 8 at the same time and draft a franchise left tackle while also gaining more draft capital I’d be open to that too.
A few podcasts ago, Lombardi said that bill Walsh said an elite receiver is the LAST piece you get building a team. I think the logic was that not only is it hard to leverage a stud WR without the surrounding pieces, but also that a talented wr could become a locker room cancer on a bad team (IIRC they were talking about how unhappy davante adams seemed in Vegas)
I’d love to get a stud OT and then take a high ceiling qb like JJ.
I’m not sold on maye (partially bc I watched the uva unc game - it was hard to understand why maye is so hyped watching that contest). Plus, I think they have so many holes I’d rather get a high upside guy and build out the other pieces in parallel
Yup, and the Pats didn't win a playoff game with him on the team until 1985, his last season in the league.
If the Pats go tackle in the top 3, with a guy like MHJ sitting there, God help us. The Pats also have 90 million or so in cap space this offseason. They should be able to find help on the line in free agency, or later in the draft, without passing up a generational talent at WR.
Bill Walsh has been dead for 16 years and out of the league for 35 years. People say the game has passed BB by, I put zero stock in what Bill Walsh thinks 20-30 years ago.
McCord went 18-30 for 271 yards with 2tds and 2ints. How would those numbers have looked without MHJ (5-118-1) on the field dragging the entire defense towards him? McCord sucks, but he still put up numbers against one of the best defensives in the nation.
Meanwhile, JJ McCarthy, who only has basically a tight end to use, went 16-20 for 148 yards and 1td. His tight ends caught 7 of those passes for 113 of those yards.
If McCarthy was the QB of OSU, with those weapons, do you think he puts up better numbers than McCord?
If the Pats win this afternoon, combined with a Tennessee loss (against Carolina), an Arizona loss (against LA Rams), & a Chicago loss (against Minnesota), I believe we'd fall down to #6 at the end of the games for Week 12. This is accounting for both SOS tiebreaker & winning percentage (there's some 3-9 records in those situations & Pats would be 3-8).
Its hysterical to consider that Bill Walsh is likely a Niner fan. A team that filled their roster with CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, Kittle, before they found their current QB with the last pick in the draft.
Oh yeah, but what happens if they all end in ties.
Hmmmmmmmmmm?
I bet the Pats money line today though, because of this. Seems like a win/win no matter what happens. Also think Arizona has a good chance to beat the Rams, and who the hell knows what happens with the Bears/Vikings game..
I wish the bolded were true, because if it were Tyreek fucking Hill wouldn't be on pace for 2,000 yards.
Bill Walsh said that like a million years ago. It’s a different game now. If they are in the top 3, get either one of the QBs or Harrison.
MM does a fantastic job of coming up with dozens of ways of getting the ball in Hill’s hands. Offensive coordinators have done a much better job of doing this than 5-10 years ago.