I have no idea. Neither does he. He was just spitballing about when to grab another QB if the Pats were to go the MHJ/Cousins route.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
One game shouldn't move the needle. Both had their moments. Penix throws a really nice ball.
Trade down from a spot where we'd be looking at Penix and Nix? If we're in the top 3, those aren't the QBs we'd be looking at.
Neither Penix or Nix are top 20 guys nevermind top 3. Maybe someone would trade up to 35 to nab one of them, if thats what you mean. Neither of them are even in the top 3 QBs so theres no way someones looking to trade to 3 to pick Penix or Nix.
Personally, wouldnt surprise me if neither of them went day 1.
I think he means if we end up at #4 and Williams and Maye are gone, just trade back, pick up assets, don't draft these guys at all, even later, just fill in rest of roster, and sign a FA QB.
Curious. You and a handful others aren't seeing it with Nix, and I'm wondering why. To me he looks like a guy who has a strong arm, a quick release. He's decisive, moves well in the pocket, and runs well for sure, throws off platform. He seems to manipulate safeties on occasion (there were specific references to this in last night's game). Just three picks. Not obviously an A hole.
I know his performance at Auburn was spotty and that he benefits from a talent group of skill players. But why isn't he in your mind a top 15 player?
The more I see of this class the more it reinforces that they need to be taking one of the top QBs, whether you think that is 3 guys with Daniels or just 2. Value is depth at WR and OT is WAYYYYY better than QB.
Seconded. I think it's those three guys at QB. Hoping we don't get a Zappe bump so they can guarantee one of them with a top 3 pick. I have a feeling Daniels may go #3 when it's said and done, even with MHJ and the OTs. I also wouldn't mind a double dip at QB, with a toolsy, project picked late. Someone like Uiagalelei if he comes out. Then go get Brissett to support them.
So for Nix it probably comes down to the following:
1. He's quite old for a draftee, doesn't always matter, but there are things that come with that (far more coaching already, etc.)
2. His physical tools are NFL good enough but not elite, okay arm strength but not top end, good mobility, but not a weapon, he's okay sized (6'2" 215ish).
3. His success all came at Oregon where he was surrounded by elite talent and an offense that had serious QB training wheels.
4. He threw very little downfield relatively, and a huge percentage of his yards are YAC (65% or so).
5. He played few top teams and struggled more in those. (worse stats, and never won a game against a top 10 team).
6. He leaves good pockets too often, he had a great O-line and he doesn't feel pressure that well.
7. He's not asked to do much or any pre-snap diagnosis
8. His post-snap processing doesn't look that great.
9. Accuracy downfield is decent but not elite, and his deep ball is generally... not great.
10. He makes a lot of sketchy decisions that work in college but not NFL.
Edit- if you want someone who is high on him, PFF loves him because they heavily rely on the stat profile.
Jesus, you and I have disagreed a lot in this forum, but this breakdown is perfect.
Daniels is my pick at QB right now, but I am a bit concerned about his slight frame. Is the Liberty QB draft eligible?
Salter? Too small, got arrested, recruited and went to Tennessee before Liberty. Dude needs to be Drew Brees good to warrant a pre 5th round pick, IMO.
If you want to dig that deep on QB, Pratt from. Tulane is that guy, but after scouting, pro days, combine, etc, I don't think Pratt makes it passed the 2nd round.
Don't thank me. The fact I know about a quarterback from Liberty fucking University makes me think I probably haven't been spending my time wisely.
For like 35 years.
From Mike Reiss: "Per ESPN Analytics, the Patriots have an 83% chance to earn a top-5 pick in the 2024 NFL draft and a 10% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. Both are the third-highest of any team, trailing only the Bears (via the Panthers) and Cardinals."
I'm excited that Zappe can put up zero points better than Mac and look better doing it.
after h2h the tiebreaker for draft pick position is record w/in the conference. pats have both their wins in the AFC so far, cardinals only win has been out of conference. barring some insantiy pats will need to out-lose them to overtake their draft position. Them getting a win vs Tampa would be a great start.
You want a major silver lining? Unlike the last QB1 transition, the Patriots next QB1 is almost certainly going to have the lowest of bars to hurdle to be considered an upgrade. In fact, its not unfair to say that thus far in 2023, the New England Patriots have played 12 games without one true NFL caliber QB.
There is nowhere to go but up!
There is nowhere to go but up!
First tiebreaker is SOS for draft position. Pretty unlikely two teams will have exact SOS though it is possible which then goes to standard playoff tiebreakers, Div/Conf/H2H etc.
Cards up 21 with 8 and change left - the Pats are gonna be all alone in the second overall pick slot.
It's an interesting dynamic with the Cards being locked into Kyler Murray and the Pats desperately needing a QB. Tankathon has the Cards taking MJH and the Pats taking Maye regardless of who is at 2 and 3. I'm rooting for some nutty trades.
I agree, the risk is the Cards would trade that pick to a team desperate to get a QB.
I thought MHJ being hailed as a generational talent might make the decision very difficult for them, but I suppose you're right.
I think that will depend on how much higher they value MHJ than the other top WRs.
Right now CAR has the SOS tiebreaker by 0.12 points. That can change, but as each week passes, ie, fewer games for the teams’ respective opponents left to play, it’ll be harder to make up ground.
It’s a long shot that they’ll get that pick because they’ll probably need to lose out and have Carolina win TWICE in their final 6 games, including today’s game.
Probably depends more who gets 4, if it's not CHI they can get a ransom to go to 4 and still get MHJ. Also could just leverage it to get the Pats to move up 1 spot. Probably won't matter though unless Pats beat Pit
Yeah they have mostly NFC South games left, someone's could probably do the math but I think it's close to impossible for their remaining games to get better than the Patriots
On mobile so I’m not doing the math myself right now, but tankathon has .525 remaining for the Pats next 5 and .471 for Car not including this game today.
https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/remaining_schedule_strength
They play TB in week 17. That one could be a toss up if they can get one other win beforehand.
Why is AZ locked into Kyler? This is the same guy they have to contractually incentivize to work hard - I feel like they could absolutely draft another QB if they feel like they need to.
hypothetically sure, but the money is an issue, can't move on from him for at least a year, maybe 2. also... Kyler is good. It's one thing to take a QB when you have no QB, or a bad one, but Kyler is a good QB.
Also, the "bonuses for studying" thing got way overblown, a lot of that was Kliff and company trying to save their jobs
Okay, probably should have checked out the dead cap hit there. I assumed they had enough space to swallow it if they traded him because they don’t have anyone on their roster, but it’s $100 million this year and $80 next (yikes).
Well at least AZ is heading in the right direction.
Honestly still trying to figure out how they won a game.
They have the Bucs again, and this time in Carolina, so I'm holding out hope that they've got another one up their sleeve. Just don't know whether one more loss for Carolina will be enough, though.
I like these odds.
View: https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1731503164493357221
Chance to earn No. 1 or No. 2 pick, through late afternoon window. Per ESPN Analytics.
Bears via Panthers 93% Patriots 60% Cardinals 22% Giants 9% Commanders 8% Bears 3% Jets 3% Titans 1%
View: https://twitter.com/SethWalder/status/1731503164493357221
Chance to earn No. 1 or No. 2 pick, through late afternoon window. Per ESPN Analytics.
Bears via Panthers 93% Patriots 60% Cardinals 22% Giants 9% Commanders 8% Bears 3% Jets 3% Titans 1%