Yes, if we end up with 3 or 4, I think odds of a trade with Chicago are pretty good.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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I don't think BB will sell the farm to move up 2 spots as willingly as some of the other GM's. I think Chicago dances with the Giants instead.
Well Herman Edwards was his coach at ASU. I might be questioning my love of the game if he was my coach. There was some sort of scandal involving Antonio Pierce of all people and the program got fuucked up really fast. Now I'm not sure if that explanation totally absolves Daniels but that is the context of the quote. I think in Jaydens last game they lost 70 to 7 to Arizona. Plus there was the messed up Covid year that screwed up lots of people.On Jayden Daniels, QB LSU~
I just read a blurb on ESPN.com about Daniels declaring for the draft, skipping the Bowl and saying his goodbyes. The following bit is the type of thing that scares the hell out of me:
"In a video, Daniels said transferring to LSU restored his love for football after a bumpy end at Arizona State. He emerged as a top dual-threat quarterback in 2022 at LSU, passing for 2,913 yards and adding 885 yards on the ground."
Restored his love for football? I mean, he's a kid and all, but I would really rather not have to question whether or not my teams 1st Rd draft pick (especially a Top 2-5 pick), de facto team leader based on position and face of the franchise LOVES THE GAME. His talent is undeniable, but he has me wondering how he's gonna do if he doesn't have a loaded offense to work with. I swear...if this kid is a front-runner or mentally weak or is otherwise more likely wired to "transfer or quit" rather than face adversity and rise to an occasion ... I don't think I'd take him Top-2-5.
If anyone wants to talk me off the ledge or say I'm overreacting, please consider this a formal invitation...
There can be as many as 6 5-12 teams. I did a scenario where all 4-win teams win, and all 5-win teams lose. We'd be 3rd overall based on SOS, assuming a win this week from: SEA, DEN, KC, MIN.
You can go here and select which teams to win in the 'Predict Remaining NFL Games' box and then select 'draft order' to see the results.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor
If ARI lose, WASH win, & we win, we'd fall to #4 overall:
If ARI lose, WASH lose, and we win, also #4 overall.
If all 3 of us lose:
I don’t think BB will be making any decisions for the Patriots in beyond the 2023 season.
Hey thanks for that! wow, it does seem like #4 is the "worst case". That's surprisingly good.
No, we could very easily be the 5 or 6 if we win and Chargers/Giants lose out. Based on SoS now, we’d be in the 5 spot in that scenario.
Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but I included that in the simulator and the Pats never dropped below #4
It is complicated.
If PIT win today, we'd move to #5 in that scenario.
If PIT, CIN, & GB win today, we'd move to #4.
From what I'm seeing, it's going to be really hard to drop past 5th. They technically could, but even if we win and all the other teams lose, things are going to have to break really wonky to have the Giants and LAC both pick ahead of us.
There's basically no chance the Titans get better than 7th due to their sos.
If we lose to the Jets, are we guaranteed #2? That’s a heck of a lot better than I feared after last week
Different sport and player but Anthony Edwards probably made more alarming comments about his level of enthusiasm for his chosen sport (“I’m still not really into it.”) prior to being drafted and had that scared Minnesota off it would have been very much to their own detriment.On Jayden Daniels, QB LSU~
I just read a blurb on ESPN.com about Daniels declaring for the draft, skipping the Bowl and saying his goodbyes. The following bit is the type of thing that scares the hell out of me:
"In a video, Daniels said transferring to LSU restored his love for football after a bumpy end at Arizona State. He emerged as a top dual-threat quarterback in 2022 at LSU, passing for 2,913 yards and adding 885 yards on the ground."
Restored his love for football? I mean, he's a kid and all, but I would really rather not have to question whether or not my teams 1st Rd draft pick (especially a Top 2-5 pick), de facto team leader based on position and face of the franchise LOVES THE GAME. His talent is undeniable, but he has me wondering how he's gonna do if he doesn't have a loaded offense to work with. I swear...if this kid is a front-runner or mentally weak or is otherwise more likely wired to "transfer or quit" rather than face adversity and rise to an occasion ... I don't think I'd take him Top-2-5.
If anyone wants to talk me off the ledge or say I'm overreacting, please consider this a formal invitation...
Crazy that there could be a SOS tie. 17 games and 17 records means the denominater is 289 games for the SOS calculation.
For those of you who were told there'd be no math ...
I suppose there's no chance that we can go reverse exhibition season and rest Barmore / Pop / Elliot?
For those of you who were told there'd be no math ...
I suppose there's no chance that we can go reverse exhibition season and rest Barmore / Pop / Elliot?
Good God! I'm rooting for Seattle?! OK then, I'm pumped and jacked!
Chargers SoS is just barely ahead of us, I think that could happen with a few games going certain ways.
But, really, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between 5 and 6. It’s dropping from 4 to 5 that is the big problem. Top 3 is really where you want to be, of course.
Really annoying Washington has gotten so bad here, but in the end it’s on Mitch Trubisky and Sean Payton they lost to us.
Just imagine if Ryland didn't hit that 57 yarder...
We'd be a guaranteed top 4, and likely top 3.
I would still want to lose to them. Why lose and give them a better pick than they deserve?
The Den/LAC kinda cuts both ways--LAC win and that puts them at 6 wins. A Denver win helps our SOS.
Running simulations, I actually couldn’t find a way to have LAC jump the Pats in SOS, so Denver winning is probably best on balance.
I think the Bears are going to trade Fields….to the Patriots….and then take Caleb Williams.
That's factored into the sims though...you pick all the winners and it spits out the numbers.
Pats SOS up to .517, Washington down to .513.
I did the sim, with AZ and WAS finishing at 4 wins, and the Pats, NYG, TEN, LAC at 5-12. Pats get the 4th pick.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-playoff-predictor
I'm finding it hard to get to #2 even with a loss. If NE loses to the Jets, it helps the Washington SOS and hurts NE's.
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3rd and a conditional 2025 pick would make sense.
Would also allow NE to trade down a few spots
Do we think Justin Fields and MHJ moves the needle? Fields has had DJ Moore the last few years BTW …
Yes? But is paying Justin Fields *and* pairing him with MHJ better than just pairing MHJ with someone like Penix or Nix?
Didn’t Moore just join Chicago this year? I mean that was part of the trade with Carolina. So Fields only had him this year.
He's had him this year only. Also he's got dogshit coaches/playcallers and a terrible line.
Though personally I wouldn't draft MHJ if I traded for Fields. I'd drop to 5 or 6 and draft Alt or Fashanu, picking up value in the process, then draft a WR at the top of the 2nd (Mitchell, Ogbuka, Franklin, etc.)
Honestly I think MHJ has gotten a bit overrated, as has the relative value of an elite WR versus even a good LT/RT. Line play, particularly pass blocking is the easiest thing separating bad teams from good league wide, outside QB (and line play impacts QB play more than passcatchers). I'd rather have one of the top 2 tackles and a 2nd round WR than MHJ and a 2nd round tackle.
Agree I’m 100% on board with Fields, first round left tackle and and 2nd round WR.
I would also keep Henry and possibly Brown at TE and maybe try and get Zeke to hang around on a reasonable 2 year deal.
still some cap space available for veteran depth and a kicker.
Defence should be ok as is with Gonzo and Judon back and Marcus Jones may add to the numbers too although his CB play needs progression.
I would also keep Henry and possibly Brown at TE and maybe try and get Zeke to hang around on a reasonable 2 year deal.
still some cap space available for veteran depth and a kicker.
Defence should be ok as is with Gonzo and Judon back and Marcus Jones may add to the numbers too although his CB play needs progression.
a good LT isn’t going to make a good QB a great one or an average one a good one
Trent Brown, who at his best is probably Joe Alt’s ceiling has hardly been a game changer in terms of helping the offense.
hard not to look at what the WR’s in Philly, Miami and Diggs in Buffalo have done for those QB’s and think an elite WR’s greatest value is as a QB enhancer.
The Bengals, for example, better off with Jamar Chase or Jonah Williams? Both first round talents. One elevates their offense. The other was an ok tackle who helped get them to a Super Bowl and is since off the team.
not to say having a good LT isn’t important. Obviously it is. But an elite WR and decent/good LT is going to elevate an offense far more than a decent WR/elite LT.
The Pats had arguably the worst tackle in the league (Verdarian Lowe) playing today. Do they score more points with Trent Brown at LT or Justin Jefferson at WR?
I’d trade down and pick up Nabers rather than gamble on someone later. New England WR gambles tend to end badly.
There is next to zero chance that happens unless a team sells them two whole drafts for Williams.
Curious how you have the Pats picking ahead of the Giants. Tankathon gives them the SOS edge .509 to .518 right now. Unless GB sweeps their last two games I don't see it.
Just realized I forgot to account for a Pats win (in this scenario) adding two NYJ losses to the Pats SOS. That makes a big difference. Still need the other games to break right, though.
(edit: and the two extra wins on the NYG SOS assuming Philly beats them. So there you go.)
(edit: and the two extra wins on the NYG SOS assuming Philly beats them. So there you go.)
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If they keep Fields, are you suggesting they won’t trade the first pick? Or are you suggesting the odds they keep Fields is next to zero? In either case, I think your odds are way too high. This is a close call at this point, Fields has come a long way the past 15-20 games. And if they keep Fields, they are trading that pick.
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I don't have that. The PFN site has that. Here's what people miss: for SOS, a team winning lowers the opponent's SOS. A team losing raises opponents SOS. In the scenario we're gaming out, we have NE winning--that lowers our SOS--and NYG losing, which raises theirs.
Here's the games I entered:
GB winning tonight.
SEA over AZ
BAL over PIT
TB over CAR
CLE over CIN
DET over MIN
GB over CHI
HOU over IND
KC over LAC
LV over DEN
NE over NYJ
NO over ATL
PHI over the NYG
Those results put NE at .512 and the NYG at .519. If the NYG beat Philly, their SOS would drop to .512 (of course there would be no tiebreaker needed, but that's not the point). The result of OUR game moves our SOS 6 or 7 points in either direction from where it is now.
Per tankathon, the games that matter for us versus the NYG are:
GB beating Min (GB up 23-3)
Hou beating Ind (Indy -1.5)
GB beating Chi (no line)
LV beating Den (LV -2.5)
Bal beating Pit (Pit -3.5)
If I have all of those games next week go against us then we fall below them.
OK looks like your initial scenario had all five games going the Pats way. So if my math is right the Pats needs at least 2 or 3 to go the right way to clinch the 4 spot -- right? (I'm not sure what the third tiebreaker is since they didn't play each other, and didn't play in the same division or conference -- in the past it went straight to coinflip, not sure if that's still true))