Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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I was a little surprised to see so much Bo Nix love on my Twitter feed today. Is anyone here particularly high on Nix?
View: https://twitter.com/mattwaldman/status/1748059103530824036?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1748032218273087781?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/mattwaldman/status/1748059103530824036?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/allbrightnfl/status/1748032218273087781?s=46
The Athletic just published a piece of their other draft writers (Nick Baumgardner and Diante Lee) reacting to Brugler’s mock and both of them have Daniels pegged as a late 1st and neither of them seem to think he’s even an option for the Patriots.
Who are the draft writers that are really high on Daniels? I really only pay attention to Brugler and Luke Easterling this early
Who are the draft writers that are really high on Daniels? I really only pay attention to Brugler and Luke Easterling this early
If they hire him that seems like a pretty good sign that the Bears intend to stick at #1 and take Williams.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1748054895872073915
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1748054895872073915
https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/18/postseason-nfl-mock-draft-2024-first-round-picks-and-predictions-for-all-32-teams#gid=ci02d3afb000002792&pid=1
SI's mock has us taking Harrison, and has Nix and McCarthy still available after the first round.
SI's mock has us taking Harrison, and has Nix and McCarthy still available after the first round.
If - and this is a big if - McCarthy truly could be great and would be available in round two...man it would be amazing to grab MHJ and then get McCarthy.
Here's a scouting report on him:
Size:
Height: 6’3” | Weight: 202 lbs
Accomplishments:
National Champion (2023) • Manning Award Finalist (2023) • Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Finalist (2023)
“J.J. McCarthy’s combination of arm talent and athletic ability gives him the ability to develop into a high-level starting quarterback with time and reps.”
Strengths:
J.J. McCarthy is a toolsy, young quarterback with a good ceiling and floor. McCarthy can win within and outside of the offensive structure. He is a good and fluid passer of the football. I appreciate his ability to throw with different speeds and with control. He can layer the football well with appropriate touch and air underneath the pass. McCarthy’s arm is more than NFL-caliber. He drives throws in the middle of the field with good velocity and zip. He is capable of fitting passes into tighter windows versus both man and zone coverages.
He has flashed as a quick decision-maker in the passing game. Whether off hard play-action, RPOs, or true dropback, McCarthy can operate quickly. He thrives and lives in the middle of the field, between the hashes as a three-level passer. I came away impressed with his ability to quickly identify the blitz and find his “hot” route. Against the blitz this season, he completed nearly 70% of his passes for 1,156 passing yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He is willing to take whatever the defenses give him. McCarthy checks the ball down to his open outlets after surveying down the field.
McCarthy is a plus-athlete. He is a real threat to hurt defenses with his running ability. An NFL offensive coordinator will have more options within the playbook to feature McCarthy in the running game. QB zone-reads, QB counters, etc. are available with him at the helm. He has a good level of elusiveness in the pocket to evade/avoid free-running defenders and climb the pocket. His athleticism creates second-reaction throws outside the pocket. When McCarthy is playing out of the pocket, he remains a QB first, keeping his eyes down the field before he takes off to gain as many yards with his legs as possible.
McCarthy was held back by Michigan’s offense to an extent. They were a little restricting in tighter games versus better competition with his usage, not allowing him to consistently throw the football game to game. He lacks true dropback reps as a passer, but when he had them, plays were made. McCarthy’s processing speed can be hit or miss as a result of inconsistent drop-back attempts. He will stare down his first read a bit too long and bring defenders into the throwing window. Potential usage as a runner should be calculated decisions because of McCarthy’s slim/slender frame. The more reps he gains, the better he will be with his trigger. At times, he double-clutches the ball instead of letting it rip to the open receiver with a defender driving downhill. Improving his deep passing game outside the numbers will be paramount to how high his ceiling will be in the NFL.
McCarthy projects as a high-ceiling quarterback who has some development to undergo. His experience running and executing NFL/pro-style concepts will help his transition to the NFL. His combination of arm talent, ball placement, and athleticism will be too enticing for teams to pass up in round one.
Prospect Projection: Day 2 — Winning Starter
Here's a scouting report on him:
Size:
Height: 6’3” | Weight: 202 lbs
Accomplishments:
National Champion (2023) • Manning Award Finalist (2023) • Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award Finalist (2023)
“J.J. McCarthy’s combination of arm talent and athletic ability gives him the ability to develop into a high-level starting quarterback with time and reps.”
Strengths:
- Athletic ability
- High upside
- Attacking between the numbers
- Poise
- Small/slender frame
- Consistency in drop-back passing game
- Deep throws outside the numbers
J.J. McCarthy is a toolsy, young quarterback with a good ceiling and floor. McCarthy can win within and outside of the offensive structure. He is a good and fluid passer of the football. I appreciate his ability to throw with different speeds and with control. He can layer the football well with appropriate touch and air underneath the pass. McCarthy’s arm is more than NFL-caliber. He drives throws in the middle of the field with good velocity and zip. He is capable of fitting passes into tighter windows versus both man and zone coverages.
He has flashed as a quick decision-maker in the passing game. Whether off hard play-action, RPOs, or true dropback, McCarthy can operate quickly. He thrives and lives in the middle of the field, between the hashes as a three-level passer. I came away impressed with his ability to quickly identify the blitz and find his “hot” route. Against the blitz this season, he completed nearly 70% of his passes for 1,156 passing yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. He is willing to take whatever the defenses give him. McCarthy checks the ball down to his open outlets after surveying down the field.
McCarthy is a plus-athlete. He is a real threat to hurt defenses with his running ability. An NFL offensive coordinator will have more options within the playbook to feature McCarthy in the running game. QB zone-reads, QB counters, etc. are available with him at the helm. He has a good level of elusiveness in the pocket to evade/avoid free-running defenders and climb the pocket. His athleticism creates second-reaction throws outside the pocket. When McCarthy is playing out of the pocket, he remains a QB first, keeping his eyes down the field before he takes off to gain as many yards with his legs as possible.
McCarthy was held back by Michigan’s offense to an extent. They were a little restricting in tighter games versus better competition with his usage, not allowing him to consistently throw the football game to game. He lacks true dropback reps as a passer, but when he had them, plays were made. McCarthy’s processing speed can be hit or miss as a result of inconsistent drop-back attempts. He will stare down his first read a bit too long and bring defenders into the throwing window. Potential usage as a runner should be calculated decisions because of McCarthy’s slim/slender frame. The more reps he gains, the better he will be with his trigger. At times, he double-clutches the ball instead of letting it rip to the open receiver with a defender driving downhill. Improving his deep passing game outside the numbers will be paramount to how high his ceiling will be in the NFL.
McCarthy projects as a high-ceiling quarterback who has some development to undergo. His experience running and executing NFL/pro-style concepts will help his transition to the NFL. His combination of arm talent, ball placement, and athleticism will be too enticing for teams to pass up in round one.
Prospect Projection: Day 2 — Winning Starter
I would prefer any of the top 3 or Penix to JJ, but I will say, I do think there’s something to that offense not really bringing out the best in him. I think he could kind of blow up in the NFL, much like some college players who explode in the nba because of the spacing in the league compared to the college game.
FWIW, PFF has Daniels at 11 on their board (QB3), Penix at 20, Nix at 22, and McCarthy at 57.
JJ in R2 would a real slam dunk. The fact that he's 20 should also help his projections. I'd favor him over Nix for sure, and probably Penix too. My guess is that he rises during the process and ends up in the 20s (teams will want the extra year of control), which means we'd have to jump up to get him with our second pick. Maybe the Pats will be happy with whatever QB drops into R2. If so, they'll keep the fans sweating into Day 2.
My (likely underinformed) take is that JJ is the kind of QB prospect that you'd ideally want to sit for a season or two like Jordan Love. A team like the Rams could be a great fit, sitting him behind Stafford for a couple seasons. I think if a team with a poor QB room like the Pats takes him there will be too much pressure to start him right away before he's really ready.
A lot of people don't have any ranks out yet, too early. But it looks like Charlie Campbell has him as QB3, but player 4 on his bigboard.
Marcus Mosher doesnt have a big board out yet, but his first mock has Daniels at #2.
Some of the others: Klassen, Zierline, Jeremiah, etc. haven't really put anything online about him yet.
Yeah, I think there's too much reading into this. We obviously need a serviceable QB, but MHJ is arguably the best player in the draft, and while not QB, no one would say that a #1 WR isn't an important position.
He'd draft Brock Bowers, and if the Pats were still a playoff team, we'd all just ask for another helping of the Belichick Kool-Aid.
With Williams and Maye almost certainly off the board, I think the question becomes whether we want the best overall player available at a position where there is obvious need (MHJ) or whether we want to draft the third-best QB (Jayden Daniels, probably). I suspect part of the equation is who would be available at QB in the 2nd round and/or via trade--I've seen some mock drafts where both Bo Nix and Penix are available in the second round, and I could make the case for one of them plus Harrison would be the best possible outcome.
Third option (and maybe best if you don't believe in Daniels) is to trade down. A team with a lot of holes including QB should be either getting their QB or increasing their overall draft capital.
And how many 1st round QBs are on the sidelines this weekend? Heck, lets just go back a few years. Is there any 1st round QB pick in the Lawrence draft playing in the playoffs now?
I'm not sure what your point is? Yes... not all 1st round QBs work out, but at the same time... most QBs who do work out are drafted in the 1st round.
He could be playing 5D chess here, which would be great because his predecessor was only capable of playing 4D chess.
In my opinion, after the combine where Daniels will shine (provided he works out), he will be picked by Washington second and we will pick Maye.
most starting QB’s are 1st round picks. So most of the ones on the sidelines would be former first round picks. But of the 8 remaining teams, only Purdy is a non first rounder.
so 7 out of 8 divisional round teams have 1st rounders starting for them which is a higher percentage of teams who are eliminated and don’t have first rounders on their roster.
the number of great QB’s in the league is small, but the percentage of good let alone great QB’s that come from somewhere other than the first round is tiny.
for reference - since 2000, there have been 293 QB’s drafted
69 in the first round with an average career passer rating of 83.6
224 outside of the first round with an average career passer rating of 65.51
there are 19 1st round QB’s drafted since 2000 with career passer ratings over 90
there are 9 drafted outside of the first round with passer ratings over 90 (technically 4 others who have 11, 1, 48 and 10 career pass attempts so they don’t qualify)
here’s the list: Brady, Brees (32nd overall so would be a 1st by todays standards), Russell Wilson, Cousins, Prescott, Garoppolo, Hurts, Minshew and Purdy
so out of 224 guys taken outside of the first round across 24 drafts, 4% have had >90 career passer ratings. As opposed to 27.5% of first rounders
if you go out to 85 passer rating, it’s 38 of 69 for 1st rounders (55%) and 27 out of 224 (12%) of 2nd-7th rounders.
And yes passer rating is flawed and all that, but people look at Prescott, Wilson and a few others and ignore the huge number of non-1st rounders who are awful.
the average first round QB, statistically, is Eli Manning, Joe Flacco or Sam Bradford (who is the median in the population)
the average non-first rounder is Drew Stanton, Bruce Gradkowski or Brady Quinn. The median is Deshone Kizer with a rating of 58.
Mom always said “I’d rather you hang out with a meditator than a masturbator especially if they do it in public”
Excellent and informative post. Thanks for the effort. Certainly makes me feel like you need to strike while the iron is a top 3 pick. We don't get there too often. Let's keep it that way.
Great Info, thanks for posting. I think this helped reduce my recency bias toward bad outcomes of first round QB picks (2021 draft is burned in my head)
This is an excellent post. Great work.
I’m team QB regardless of who it is, but this is a good argument to sway people on the other side.
If they’re trading down, they can’t go too far and still grab a corner stone piece. My read of the early write up is that we have the 3 QBs, 2 OT, 2 WR, 1 edge, and 1 TE (which should maybe be discounted a bit for positional value).
That’s 9 players…among the top 9 picks, the Giants at 6 stand out as ready for a new QB. (If BB goes to Atlanta, I can’t imagine a trade happening. But who knows?)
The presence of 2 OT and 2 WR means teams picking 4-9 may be more patient and the edge (Turner) doesn’t currently seem like a player team will jump into the top 5 for, though his athletic profile might test through the roof and change that calculation.
Just hypothetically now - dropping down to 6 might mean picking among Alt, Fashanu, and Nabors with enough draft capital to come back into round 1 for Nix/Penix/JJ. That’s high risk maneuvering but enticing to me at the moment.
I think if you're trading down, you think there is no franchise QB left. In that case you aren't trading back into the 1st for a QB, you're stocking up at OT, WR, ED other key positions, then maybe you take a punt in the 3rd or something at QB. More likely you sign a bridge guy and go after your QB the next year with the extra picks you now have.
I don't get the idea of saying "we don't think there is a franchise QB in this draft, but we're still going to burn a 1st on a Kenny Pickett/Christian Ponder", if you think there is a franchise QB just take him, if you don't, use that to stack up bluechip players at OT/WR, etc. Then sign a bridge QB and try again, with the ammo to move up if you need to next year given the extra picks you got (especially if you get a future 1st for a QB you think isn't a franchise guy, just ask CHI how that works out)
If you don't think there is a franchise QB left that you could potentially take later, wouldn't you just take MHJ at #3? Or are you thinking of trading back if you can get a haul and loading up on the 2nd tier of WR, OT and Edge?
If they like a QB, either trade up to get him, sit and draft him or trade back to somewhere like #12 with the Broncos and grab a 3rd and 1st rounder next year. That would allow for a highly impactful 12th overall pick, a top 2nd rounder, or ammo to trade the 2nd and 3rd to get back into the 20s - in which case you have two quality picks with potentially 5 years of low cost, exactly what a young team needs, particularly if you pair it with 2 more firsts next year.
This team needs a lot of help, so securing a first rounder next year for a team that looks like a short (Denver) that is likely trading up to grab a rookie QB (more volatility for their performance in ‘24) wouldn’t be the worse use of a high draft pick.
This team needs a lot of help, so securing a first rounder next year for a team that looks like a short (Denver) that is likely trading up to grab a rookie QB (more volatility for their performance in ‘24) wouldn’t be the worse use of a high draft pick.
I wouldn't take MHJ no. Even if the Patriots don't think there is a franchise QB at 3, someone will, and a QB trade haul is better than any one player. I'd much rather have Nabers, Odunze, Alt, Fashanu, etc. and a bunch of other assets.
Edit- Basically, history shows that teams that use top picks on WRs without their QB have very little success even if that WR becomes one of the best in the league. So the slightly higher chance that MHJ is elite than say Nabers.... minimal value compared to the haul trading down brings (probably a future 1st plus, or at least several seconds plus, depending on how far you drop based on past trades)
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I agree with this. If they don't like a QB at 3 then a trade down is a must. There are hole everywhere on this roster that need to be plugged. They need to take as many shots as possible.
I have only really seen McCarthy a couple times but have been having similar thoughts.
Beyond being only 20-years-old, the fact that he went over 30 passing attempts only once this season and threw over 150 yards only once in his last six games - crunch time when Michigan was sprinting toward a national championship - just doesn't give me a lot of confidence in his ability to transition smoothly to the NFL next year. Michigan obviously had a good alternative formula for winning games but you'd be a bit foolish to think that a guy who simply wasn't relied on to carry his team offensively in college would be able to start doing that immediately against much, much better competition. And to be a top 15 quarterback in today's NFL you need to be a guy that can drop back 40+ times a game and beat defenses that know you're throwing.
yeah, so 33rd team did their first mock with trades and basically ran this situation. NE didn't like Daniels so they traded 3 to ATL for 8 (Odunze) 43 and 2025 1st.
They didn't do a 2nd round, but if you transfer that trade to Brugler's 2 down mock....
The Patriots go to #8 with at least 2 of Alt, Odunze, Fashanu on the board (likely Odunze and Fashanu since I doubt TEN goes WR given their line situation).
At 34 Brugler would have available: Paul (OT), Robinson (ED), Trice (ED), Lassiter (CB) At 43 (so also all options at 34) Polk (WR), McConkey (WR), Rakestraw (CB)
So something like a Odunze, Paul, Rakestraw clas with a future 1st? Or Fashanu, Paul, Polk? Lot of options there that look very appealing.
Lord, did you see the offensive line and the running backs Michigan had to run behind them? Why pass much? It’s like the old Packers teams didn’t have HOFer Bart Starr pass much because they had Hornung and Taylor running behind Hall of fame linemen. Same with HOFer Bob Griese not passing much vs. handing off to Csonka, Kiick or Morris.
This guy succeeded at getting like $19M of the steinbrenners money for 1 hit.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hensodr01.shtml
(Side note, was today years old when I learned the reds had traded him back to the Yankees for one prospect named Wily Mo Pena.)
If BB goes on to Coach and presumably be GM of Atlanta, would this make a downward trade with them in the draft less likely to happen?
So Jeremiah had his first mock today.... it's very interesting.
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0
Patriots take Daniels at #3, 4-6 are all WRs. Nix the 4th QB at #14.
6 total WRs in the 1st (big 3 plus Thomas, Walker and Franklin)
EIGHT offensive tackles (9 if you think Barton is a tackle, 7 if you think neither he nor Fautanu is).
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-1-0
Patriots take Daniels at #3, 4-6 are all WRs. Nix the 4th QB at #14.
6 total WRs in the 1st (big 3 plus Thomas, Walker and Franklin)
EIGHT offensive tackles (9 if you think Barton is a tackle, 7 if you think neither he nor Fautanu is).
I share some of the same concerns--the issue isn't that Michigan ran a bad offense, they quite obviously did not, but that it gives draftniks a smaller body of work to look at when trying to figure out how good McCarthy is. However loved he might be around here, there's certainly no consensus on him.
So if you click through the players you can get Zierlein's initial scouting reports and grades. He posted that they'll get adjusted during the process.
As of right now it looks like his highest graded player is actually Malik Nabers with a 6.84, just ahead of MHJ with a 6.83. Third on the list is Caleb Williams with a 6.76, Bowers with a 6.75, Odunze with a 6.74 and then Jayden Daniels at 6.73.
He's very high on Nix with a 6.71, and lower on Maye with a 6.50.
Man, he's got Miami going with WR Brian Thomas. Win every game 50-49 I guess.
No draft expert here, but I'm concerned with all the Jayden Daniels love. I see a slim dude who's carrying trait is running the ball. A guy with a slightly above average NFL arm. Someone who was throwing to two of college football's top 5-6 WRs. And a guy who'll be a 24 year old rookie. He's a talent for sure, and he may turn out to be a franchise QB, but I'm not seeing it.
Further, I'm concerned that Mayo, as a first-time HC, will take a very conservative approach to the draft. He'll want "his guy" at QB and will go with QB3 irrespective of whether that player might be available 5-10 picks lower, or whether QB4 -- who could be had by trading down -- is just a tick below QB3. I won't fault Mayo if this is what he does, but I'm not sure this is the year to take the third best QB because we happen to be picking third. It looks like each of the top 3 QBs have more warts than you'd hope to see.
Here's an interesting article about JJ McCarthy. It's from 2022 and gives a sense of what Michigan's "pro style" offense is about. Largely this means giving the QB the responsibility of checking out of a play after reading the defense. If I'm understanding, these decisions are often left up to the sidelines in a "check with me" scenario. Here's a little snippet:
"McCarthy is reading this play top-down, so he can either trust his arm to beat what’s essentially bracketed coverage (with his man out-leveraged) or he can check the ball down.
"Not only does he make the right decision to take the safer throw, but his arm talent allows him to clear those underneath defenders and get the ball to his second-level read for a first down and a chunk play. A lot of Big Ten quarterbacks — a lot of really good ones — are going to pass on that throw to Ronnie Bell and wait for Erick All (No. 83) to leak into the middle of the field."
I'm a JJM guy despite his largely underwhelming performance over the last few weeks of the season. He's a fantastic athlete with a hose, a high character guy, and he's still 20 for a few more hours. So if we can trade down to 8, while picking up a #2 and a 2025 #1 -- that is, the 33rd Team mock scenario -- and draft JJM, plus a Paul/Morgan (OT), plus a Polk/Corley (WR) ... sign me up.
Further, I'm concerned that Mayo, as a first-time HC, will take a very conservative approach to the draft. He'll want "his guy" at QB and will go with QB3 irrespective of whether that player might be available 5-10 picks lower, or whether QB4 -- who could be had by trading down -- is just a tick below QB3. I won't fault Mayo if this is what he does, but I'm not sure this is the year to take the third best QB because we happen to be picking third. It looks like each of the top 3 QBs have more warts than you'd hope to see.
Here's an interesting article about JJ McCarthy. It's from 2022 and gives a sense of what Michigan's "pro style" offense is about. Largely this means giving the QB the responsibility of checking out of a play after reading the defense. If I'm understanding, these decisions are often left up to the sidelines in a "check with me" scenario. Here's a little snippet:
"McCarthy is reading this play top-down, so he can either trust his arm to beat what’s essentially bracketed coverage (with his man out-leveraged) or he can check the ball down.
"Not only does he make the right decision to take the safer throw, but his arm talent allows him to clear those underneath defenders and get the ball to his second-level read for a first down and a chunk play. A lot of Big Ten quarterbacks — a lot of really good ones — are going to pass on that throw to Ronnie Bell and wait for Erick All (No. 83) to leak into the middle of the field."
I'm a JJM guy despite his largely underwhelming performance over the last few weeks of the season. He's a fantastic athlete with a hose, a high character guy, and he's still 20 for a few more hours. So if we can trade down to 8, while picking up a #2 and a 2025 #1 -- that is, the 33rd Team mock scenario -- and draft JJM, plus a Paul/Morgan (OT), plus a Polk/Corley (WR) ... sign me up.
This is not a concern for me, at all, because I don't think Mayo is going to have much input on the pick.
One man's savvy, wise-beyond his years decision making is another's check-down artist.
You certainly know more about McCarthy and football in general than I do, and if you want to priortize projection over productivity that's fine, but taking what is largely projection at #8 strikes me as not wise.