Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

Ferm Sheller

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I am.

Anyone who thinks there's (a) an obvious, undebatable difference in the odds of success between Daniels and Maye, and (b) knows which is which is just talking out their ass.
What about Williams?

Re: Maye versus Daniels, I know we have no idea who's a better choice, but I'd like the Patriots organization to be able to have its choice between the two. I'm assuming (hoping) that they know a lot more than we do.
 

Auger34

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What about Williams?

Re: Maye versus Daniels, I know we have no idea who's a better choice, but I'd like the Patriots organization to be able to have its choice between the two. I'm assuming (hoping) that they know a lot more than we do.
Bingo. The 2 pick is better because the Patriots can choose who they want to choose. And those wins were utterly meaningless
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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How often do you reflect on those games?
I really hadn't until you mentioned them. But then I recalled how good both wins felt, and how satisfying it is to beat both of those teams. I don't think I would ever choose to not take a win against them along with the Colts and Ravens.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I really hadn't until you mentioned them. But then I recalled how good both wins felt, and how satisfying it is to beat both of those teams. I don't think I would ever choose to not take a win against them along with the Colts and Ravens.
Great, to each his own. I liked the big wins in championship years much better, and I'd like to see some more of them.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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What about Williams?

Re: Maye versus Daniels, I know we have no idea who's a better choice, but I'd like the Patriots organization to be able to have its choice between the two. I'm assuming (hoping) that they know a lot more than we do.
They were never bad enough to suck into #1 unless someone in the org was actively trying. And even if they had, I'd like you to meet the Colts Dynasty, Starring Andrew Luck.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Kenny F'ing Powers

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How about... Baker Mayfield? Daniel Jeremiah reports that the Pats are in on Mayfield and then trade #3.

View: https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/1764082998507434139?s=20

.@MoveTheSticks just said on @nflnetwork that he heard in Indy "don't sleep on the Patriots" in regards to Baker Mayfield. And then No. 3 is up for sale
.
That makes zero sense. If you go for Mayfield, then you use the #3 to draft Harrison or Alt. That Jeremiah concludes the 3 is up for sale is BS, which tells me they aren't in on Mayfield either.
 

Cabin Mirror

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That makes zero sense. If you go for Mayfield, then you use the #3 to draft Harrison or Alt. That Jeremiah concludes the 3 is up for sale is BS, which tells me they aren't in on Mayfield either.
Or still take a QB without being forced to start him day 1. But yeah, doesn't make sense to sell #3 because they brought in Baker Mayfield. He ain't the future.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't know see it with Baker, feels like his agent asked someone to make some noise about team's with a ton of cap to get the most out of TB
 

Pandemonium67

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I'd totally take Mayfield, trade down, and stock up. Mayfield plus, say, three (or even four?) picks in the top 34 would be sweet. But I doubt this is real.
 

DJnVa

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I’d be fine with them sending out three #1s for Caleb Williams over the leavings at #3. I just don’t see top ten QB when I look at the other two.
What do you see that's different from others saying all are worth of top 3 picks and aren't just going top 3 because they're QBs?
 

DJnVa

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I don't know see it with Baker, feels like his agent asked someone to make some noise about team's with a ton of cap to get the most out of TB
Yeah--the most important asset to building according to many is a QB on a rookie deal. If you like a QB at 3 you take him. The rest of this is nonsense.
 

snowmanny

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Andrew Luck was really good. We’d all be thrilled to get a QB of his caliber here.
He was really good. Four playoff seasons. At some point on another he beat every team in the conference. Well, except Pittsburgh, who he only played against once. Oh, and New England, who he only faced six times.
 

Laser Show

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I’m pretty much at the point where of Maye and Daniels, I want the one that we’re not currently rumored to have available at #3

gonna be a long couple months
 

Justthetippett

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That makes zero sense. If you go for Mayfield, then you use the #3 to draft Harrison or Alt. That Jeremiah concludes the 3 is up for sale is BS, which tells me they aren't in on Mayfield either.
It could make sense if there's another team that really wants Maye/Daniels and you can still get Odunze or Nabers by dropping a few spots. I don't think passing on the rookie QB is the prudent move, but if they do it I would like to see them squeeze all the value they can out of #3.

If they were to bring in Mayfield and a rookie WR, then go get Evans and spend the rest of their cap they'd be competitive right away. (Not elite but in the mix for the playoffs.) They'd also blow their cap and limit their long term ceiling.
 

Ferm Sheller

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It could make sense if there's another team that really wants Maye/Daniels and you can still get Odunze or Nabers by dropping a few spots. I don't think passing on the rookie QB is the prudent move, but if they do it I would like to see them squeeze all the value they can out of #3.

If they were to bring in Mayfield and a rookie WR, then go get Evans and spend the rest of their cap they'd be competitive right away. (Not elite but in the mix for the playoffs.) They'd also blow their cap and limit their long term ceiling.
I'm tired of WRs on the wrong side of 30. Pass on Evans for this rebuilding team.
 

Cellar-Door

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Have to say it would be funny if the Pats fired Bill then enacted his rumored offseason plan a year late at a much much higher cost
 

Justthetippett

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Have to say it would be funny if the Pats fired Bill then enacted his rumored offseason plan a year late at a much much higher cost
Another reason they probably won't do it. I'm pretty confident BB would have gotten 10-11 wins out of Mayfield-led team, kept improving and retired on a much better note.
 
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It could make sense if there's another team that really wants Maye/Daniels and you can still get Odunze or Nabers by dropping a few spots. I don't think passing on the rookie QB is the prudent move, but if they do it I would like to see them squeeze all the value they can out of #3.

If they were to bring in Mayfield and a rookie WR, then go get Evans and spend the rest of their cap they'd be competitive right away. (Not elite but in the mix for the playoffs.) They'd also blow their cap and limit their long term ceiling.
Mayfield and Evans and the 7th best D in the NFL (by points allowed) barely managed to be over .500 in a horrendous division

If the Pats signed him, he’d be a bottom 5-6 AFC QB. How many QB’s in the AFC is 2024 Mayfield likely to be better than? Raiders, Broncos, Steelers (presumably). Maybe Richardson, Levis and healthy (?) Watson. He’s certainly worse than Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud and likely worse than Rodgers and Tua.

I just don’t see how spending a third of their cap space on a guy who is likely to be the worst QB in their division and below average in their conference is a good idea.
 

nighthob

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What do you see that's different from others saying all are worth of top 3 picks and aren't just going top 3 because they're QBs?
Maye makes some thunderingly baffling decisions. Some of them border on Macesque. On the bright side he at least has a cannon arm. Daniels has an extremely reckless running style, and that’s instinctual. I’m not sure that can be waved away with an “They’ll coach that out of him”. Even big guys that run like that get injured on a regular basis. At Daniels build he’s going to hit his Cam Newton in New England phase before he’s 30. And I’m not overly impressed with the arm talent. When I look at all the QBs in the league I’m having a hard time seeing him displace a bunch of them to become a top 8 QB.

By contrast Williams has the arm talent to make all the throws and really no matter where he is. When he rolls out you still need to defend everywhere. So I can see CW becoming a top 5 QB. He’s worth the investment. He’s the guy that’s going to make those Day 3 WRs look like real NFL talent.
 

Jimbodandy

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Apologies, I was thinking of Penix not Williams.
Penix's team was pretty damn stacked on offense too. His two tackles will be drafted, one very high. One of his WRs will be a stud, and two others will be playing on Sundays most likely too.

I was somewhat high on Penix weeks ago, and spending some time looking at him harder changed that. That team has a couple of players on defense too. Some recruiting was done there.

Not that playing with good teammates is disqualifying, but he's an example of someone who did...play with future pros.
 
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College Joe Burrow played with elite talent too...and his skills translated to the NFL. College Mac Jones...you know the rest. Hard to say. Hope for the best. Don't overthink. Draft Maye/Daniels.
 
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College Joe Burrow played with elite talent too...and his skills translated to the NFL. College Mac Jones...you know the rest. Hard to say. Hope for the best. Don't overthink. Draft Maye/Daniels.
Stroud played with Smith-Njigba, Olave, Harrison, Garrett Wilson and Emeka Ebuka

Hurts had CeeDee Lamb (and Pickett had Addison for the opposite example)

I don’t think quality of receiver means much unless you’re box score scouting. The throws Penix and Daniels have made their name upon arent their receivers bailing them out or making crazy plays on the ball. They just happen to be on the receiving end of good throws a lot of the time.

It should also be noted that no one was talking about Brian Thomas as a 1st rounder or Malik Nabers as a possible top 5/6 pick before Daniels broke out this year and yet nobody is saying they’re only good because they have Daniels throwing them the ball.
 

Devizier

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Looking at the combine, a lot of the tackles that people had going early look a little small, right? I’m guessing there won’t be much there, positionally, by the time the second round rolls around.
 

Cellar-Door

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So reports are the Patriots met with 5 QBs at the combine, as you'd expect they met the top 3:
WIlliams
Daniels
Maye

Then 2 of the others: McCarthy and Nix.

Did not meet with Michael Penix.
 

DJnVa

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So reports are the Patriots met with 5 QBs at the combine, as you'd expect they met the top 3:
WIlliams
Daniels
Maye

Then 2 of the others: McCarthy and Nix.

Did not meet with Michael Penix.
They did talk with Penix in Mobile however.

Penix struggles under pressure, the injury history is a mile long too.
Penix did pass all medical tests at the combine.
 

Cellar-Door

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They did talk with Penix in Mobile however.



Penix did pass all medical tests at the combine.
There is no such thing as "passing" unless you mean they didn't find a career ending heart issue or cancer.
Penix said he thought they went well, nobody will know what each team thinks. Penix has had 2 ACL repairs, whether your team's doctors are comfortable with those and the damage around it (cartilage, etc.) is going to vary and be a sliding scale.
 

DJnVa

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There is no such thing as "passing"
Tell Rapoport. I'm just cribbing his language and I have no dog in the fight.



NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport stated that Penix’s medical testing “went well” and added that the potential first-round pick received “positive reviews” in terms of his medical evaluation.

“Any medical questions that Penix had seem to be kind of pushed a little back under the radar,” Rapoport said.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tell Rapoport. I'm just cribbing his language and I have no dog in the fight.

yeah, I was just pointing out, "passing" doesn't really mean much, Rappaport said that because that's what his agent wanted said. There are a few things on medicals that might stop your ability to play (usually heart issues), otherwise you "pass", medicals are much more complex and each team will have their own interpretation and risk allowances.
 

E5 Yaz

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Latest mock in The Athletic has them trading down with Atl and picking Alt

Projected trade: Falcons send No. 8, No. 43 and a 2025 first-round pick to the Patriots for No. 3
8. New England Patriots (from ATL)*: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Patriots have an obvious need at quarterback, but they have a ton of needs in general. And one league source told me that de facto general manager Eliot Wolf “wants to stockpile draft picks.” Not only would the Patriots add a haul of draft capital in a trade back, but in this scenario, they’re still getting a really talented prospect. Alt met with New England offensive line coach Scott Peters at the combine, and he would answer a pivotal need for the offense.

New England doesn’t address its quarterback need in the first round here. But let’s say the Patriots trade a third-rounder (No. 68) to the Bears for Justin Fields— that would give them a potentially cheaper (and more exciting) “let’s see if it works” plan as they build up the roster. They still would have two second-rounders this year and two first-rounders next year, which would allow Wolf to upgrade several positions.

https://theathletic.com/5314966/2024/03/05/nfl-mock-draft-2024-jayden-daniels-quarterbacks/
 

Justthetippett

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Latest mock in The Athletic has them trading down with Atl and picking Alt





https://theathletic.com/5314966/2024/03/05/nfl-mock-draft-2024-jayden-daniels-quarterbacks/
Alt is a good player but this return is not enough for me. I'd ask for more '25 picks. Stockpiling picks in general is fine but this doesn't maximize value. I think you would need the equivalent of 3 R1s to go this far back in this draft.

And Fields wants to go to Atlanta from all the reports. So I don't think that's a likely target for the Pats at this point. If we trade out of #3 and don't address our QB position that's a real fail.
 
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Arroyoyo

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There is no such thing as "passing" unless you mean they didn't find a career ending heart issue or cancer.
Penix said he thought they went well, nobody will know what each team thinks. Penix has had 2 ACL repairs, whether your team's doctors are comfortable with those and the damage around it (cartilage, etc.) is going to vary and be a sliding scale.
This reminds me of an old Chris Rock bit that went something like “I got my AIDS test. Passed, with a 65.”
 

Salem's Lot

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Arroyoyo

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Players complaining about cold weather are so ridiculous.

You’ll spend August thru (in a great year) early February playing probably 2-3 REALLY cold home games. Foxboro, outside of some freak storm front, is generally fairly moderate until mid-November.

The rest of the time you’ll mostly be practicing in a bubble when it’s awful outside. So I have a hard time buying complaints about “weather” really coming down to football.

What’s more apparent to me is that what the player is really concerned about - when it goes so far that your family/friends/group is leaking it to the media - is nice weather on Friday and Saturday night, or worse, weekday nights in-season.

In that case, you’re not prioritizing games on Sunday the way you should be. What does any serious quarterback, trying to win championships and compete with the best quarterbacks in the world, really plan to do after practice during football season? Or on weekend nights before Sunday games?

You have mid-February through most of July to do whatever you want. Nearly half the year. In what’ll likely be a ~10-year career (if things are going well) that sets you up financially for life. If “the weather” is a huge concern , how is anyone supposed to believe football is your #1 priority?

Again, it could be nothing. Maybe he was being genuine when he said it would be dope to play in NE. But I’m a believer that these things don’t leak around draft time for no reason.
 

67YAZ

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English soccer fans have a phrase for all the rumors & bs around player movement - it’s silly season.

Did this come from Daniel’s? From someone close to Daniel’s? From his agent? From a source in a rival team trying to play an angle? From someone in Foxboro trying to tamp down excitement about Daniels? Or just more poorly sourced bs meant to carry water and generate clicks?

Who knows? It’s silly season. And it’s not worth the effort to figure out why some some people want to act so silly.