I don't see how this is a discount for Poole. Spotrac predicted he's sign for 4/100, Bleacher Report predicted the same (if he had played out the year and had similar production). One of his biggest comps has to be Tyler Herro (who just won 6th man, is a more complete player, and has a much better track record) and he signed for $10M less. Maybe Poole ends up as one of the highest scoring combo guards in the league, but I think it's far more likely has a career similar to Jamal Crawford. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but Crawford made $10M+ just 3 times in 20 years (which is low, even accounting for the increased salary cap). There's value in the Warriors locking him up now, especially considering the Draymond issue, but I don't see how they would have had to pay MORE if they'd just waited out the year and let him go to restricted free agency.
Personally I think there’s something wrong with being a high-volume, ultra-low-efficiency chucker like Jamal Crawford. Fortunately Poole is the opposite of that: a high-volume, high-efficiency chucker.
TS%
Jamal Crawford career .529 / .496 playoffs
Crawford age 22 season: 496
Poole age 22 season: .598 / .654 playoffs
The last two seasons Poole has been much closer to young Steph Curry than to Jamal Crawford in terms of scoring efficiency.
Also curious why you think Herro is a “more complete” player than Poole. Last season per 36:
Poole 22.2 pts on .598 ts / 4.1 reb / 4.8 ast
Herro 17.9 pts on .561 / 5.5 reb / 4.0 ast
I see very similar player types, right down to their age and Milwaukee prep school pedigree — so when Herro’s extension was signed, the die was effectively cast for JP. But I think Poole’s superior scoring ability, efficiency, backup PG skills, and less party-boyish reputation easily accounts for the $750,000 delta in AAV (Poole $123M total, Herro $120M, with Poole earning $7M more than Herro in incentives).
Both rate as mediocre-to-poor defenders, though I think it’s probably a little too early to judge either of them definitively on that front.
I agree with you that Poole’s deal is hard to consider a “discount,” but I think it’s probably a better value than Herro’s contract. We shall see. And as you say, either way, there’s value to the Warriors in locking him up now — especially after the egregious Draymond assault — rather than risking the potential acrimony of, say, the Ayton/Phoenix situation.