What does this even mean? Who is this guy?
(I know who Dennis Lin is but what is he reporting vs what this random guy is guessing at?)
Offseason rumors
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(I know who Dennis Lin is but what is he reporting vs what this random guy is guessing at?)
It appears he is guessing at what Lin is reporting, which is a potential San Diego trade.
His speculation is if Duran moves, Raf is his internal replacement.
His speculation is if Duran moves, Raf is his internal replacement.
yeah he posted the link to what Lin reported and a clarification that he is speculating about an internal replacement in his two followup tweets
Here's the entirety of the trade/Duran stuff from Lin's Padres notebook this morning
https://theathletic.com/5276543/2024/02/15/ha-seong-kim-trade-unlikely-padres/
Musgrove.....His family owns a bakery near where I live. He comes to my sons HS games occasionally because his nephew plays for the team. Let's just say I don't believe he's going anywhere.
This is 100% how I see it. Looking at Montgomery's xFIP and SIERA, k-rate, swinging strike %, and raw stuff, I think the Sox likely view him as a low end #2, ideally a #3 pitcher, who is just entering the bad part of the pitcher aging curve. They're not going to pay him like an elite starter for four plus years which is what Boras is seeking. But if Montgomery gets a contract more reflective of what he actually is, he probably would prefer to go somewhere other than a Boston team that looks like a longshot to make the post season.
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Yeah, the scouting staff, especially Eddy Romero’s people on the international side, have done yeomen’s work in finding arms for Boston. But the pitching development has been a wasteland for a long time now. Bloom was supposed to fix the developmental infrastructure (which went to hell under Dombrowski), but on the pitching side he failed. So Boston hired someone with a track record in that regard. I’m optimistic that Breslow, Willard, et al can salvage Gonzalez and Perales as they have big arms. I’m more hopeful that they can find some extra velocity for the pitchers with better control and command like Monegro and Paez.
Wonder if they'd consider Lesko for Duran.
Lesko is seen as a top 50ish prospect (BA, BP, MLB have him between 38 and 56), but he is a heck of a long ways off, having only thrown a combined 28 ip between low and high A last year. He's almost certainly headed for A+ again this season, so it's not like he's part of the immediate (or close to it) help of guys like King, Thorpe and Vasquez from the Soto deal.
BTV considers that a moderate overpay by the Sox, which makes me think SD might at least consider it (or at least not hang up the phone laughing the way they would if the Sox asked for Snelling). Boston might have to add something (would Martin do them any good?) but that's the player I'd target.
If the Padres would move Kim after the Korea series and are interested in Duran, I wonder if there's a three way deal to be made with the Marlins who seem to be after a shortstop. I'd think the Marlins would need more than Kim - who is a FA after this season - for Luzardo, but it could be a good starting point.
I'm more interested in salvaging Houck, Whitlock, and Winck! Murphy and Walter wouldn't hurt either. And if Breslow/Bailey/Boddy think there's enough talent/depth there to last the season behind our four clear starters I'm good with it.
That said, if BBB think JMont or Snell are great additions I hope ownership being cheap isn't the holdup.
Ooh, could he get 165 games played?
edit: they only have two games in Korea, so he’s only get up to 164 games, short of the record.
The guys on the major league roster are the responsibility of Bailey, and he also has a pretty good track record on that front. The minors are the responsibility of Breslow and the pitching department. Boston has a lot of raw arms in the system. But their hit rate has been pretty bad for a while now.
Scott Boras, please phone home
Blake Snell - Boras client
Cody Bellinger - Boras client
Jordan Montgomery - Boras client
Matt Chapman - Boras client
J.D. Martinez - Boras client
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela
Michael A. Taylor
Hyun-Jin Ryu - Boras client
Blake Snell - Boras client
Cody Bellinger - Boras client
Jordan Montgomery - Boras client
Matt Chapman - Boras client
J.D. Martinez - Boras client
Tommy Pham
Gio Urshela
Michael A. Taylor
Hyun-Jin Ryu - Boras client
I am imagining Scott Boras jumping out of bed in a cold sweat saying "Ahh crap, that was due today?!" and fumbling for his cell phone
We'll see, but I'm betting he still gets at least:
$175m for Snell
$175m for Bellinger
$150m for Monty
$125m for Chapman.
I think most of them will end up higher...
Where are those guys getting that kind of money and why haven't they gotten it already? If you'd predicted those numbers in November, I'd have a hard time arguing with you on any of them. But for them to all get that much after camps have opened seems unlikely to me. If offers like those are out there, what are they waiting for?
Agreed. I don't know whether it was a case of Boras misreading the market, but the Yamamoto price tag sort of set the bidding for the other "biggest name" pitchers somewhat askew. At the end of the day, you've got two LHP who are above average and occasionally brilliant, but who reportedly started asking for contracts that would take them into their post-35 seasons.
On the other hand you have two hitters also dealing with questions: Were Bellinger's comeback, and Chapman's slide, one-year aberrations?
They can hold out as long as their nerves allow, but @Red(s)HawksFan is right in suggesting that the major deals might no longer be out there
I agree 100% that those contracts will not be handed out this late to all 4 guys. Maybe one or two will hit those marks. Reports were that he wanted 9/270 for Snell and over 250m for Bellinger are ludicrous. I hope this is the year that he ends up with egg on his face by misreading the market on his guys, all of whom have flaws. What's the old adage, "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered?"...
Ok. I get that this is conjecture, but tell us about your reasoning.
So you're a baseball fan, right? Presumably that means you enjoy watching good baseball players play baseball?
Assuming the answers to those questions are yes, then I am completely mystified by your attitude. You seem to prefer that the players -- the people who are the reason you're a fan in the first place -- take less money than they think they worth so that the owners -- the people who do absolutely nothing to entertain you in any way shape or form -- can make more money.
Half the teams in the league -- including the Red Sox! -- are deliberately choosing to field a worse team than they can afford and yet it's the players who draw your ire. Who exactly are the hogs here?
I can get you Jordan Montgomery's Venmo information if you give me a bit. Unless of course you already have it?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Boras already has a couple of offers in hand for some of those guys that are on the lower end of those early projections, even this late in the process.
I think we’ll find out soon enough.
edit: just to clarify, lower end of projections but still in the ballpark of what people thought those guys might get after the season ended.
I think we’ll find out soon enough.
edit: just to clarify, lower end of projections but still in the ballpark of what people thought those guys might get after the season ended.
I agree with this, but I also wouldn't be unhappy if those teams who had put the initial offers in decide after two months of being essentially held hostage that they are no longer interested or want to go a different direction.
@Midnight Ryder Jones you’ve totally missed my point and where I’m directing anything. Yes, I am indeed a baseball fan. I’m 52 and have been since I was 7. I probably watch 140 plus Sox games a year. Everything I said was directed at Scott Boras and NOT the players. I know his job is to get his clients the most money possible. He simply goes about it in the most asinine way that has totally hijacked the free agency period and the off-season in general. Perhaps the system is inherently flawed, since the majority of guys don’t hit free agency until close to 30, so these long term deals end up rewarding past performance. How many of the long term (8-12 yr deals) for anyone has worked out great for the teams in the last 20 yrs versus how many have completely been an albatross? I’ll wait. And I don’t appreciate you questioning if I’m a fan of the game because you misunderstood one post. Of course I wish the Sox would spend right up to the 1st threshold to field a more competitive team bec I know they can afford it. But do I want them to sign Montgomery for 7 yrs when he’s a borderline low end #2 starter for most of his career or Snell who’s had two great seasons and the rest injury plagued ones and still walked 100 guys in his CY Young year in a great pitchers park? No thanks.
I take your point, and generally support players getting paid what they're worth, but there's got to be a limit, right? Like Snell's entitled to ask for anything he wants, sure, but there's just not a world where he's worth $30m/yr from age 31-39, when he's only managed to produce that kind of value for 2 seasons of his career to this point. Seriously, which team do you think should sign him on those terms?
It feels to me like Boras took the confluence of overpays last winter to be the new normal, and sold his clients/himself on that as something achievable every year, and not just 3 clubs going bananas for various reasons and the MFY securing their franchise player in a single offseason.
Right. Those resources could be deployed elsewhere or maybe even already have. But if they haven't and a team thinks it is getting solid value, I don't think Boras shopping around for a while trying to get something at the higher end of those projections is a dealbreaker.
That said, I wouldn't expect a team to wait for a couple of months. If Boras has such an offer or offers, think it is more likely something that developed over the last couple of weeks.
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The Yankees offered Snell $150 million IIRC.
They may get him at that.
It's easy to say he isn't worth that - but then the next question is if not him who? It is not a question I have WRT to the Red Sox and Montgomery - unless the answer is Houck.
They may get him at that.
It's easy to say he isn't worth that - but then the next question is if not him who? It is not a question I have WRT to the Red Sox and Montgomery - unless the answer is Houck.
They pivoted to Stroman after Snell turned them down, so I’m not sure how interested they still are.
Sure. For the two pitchers, someone of similar age, with a year to go before free agency that literally has never shown an ability to last 125ip in a single season (and will be 30) got 5/$136m (Glasnow). Similar with Rodon last year getting $160m, though he’s at least more durable than Glasnow.
As far as Bellinger, basically using the way the Bryant deal shook out as comps ($182m).
I feel like we consistently get to the point in an off season where people start saying Boras misjudged the market, then he still gets a huge deal anyway. Fool me once, shame on me...
To b clear, I am not saying they’re getting the $270m or whatever Boras mentioned for Snell or the $200m he apparently wants for JM. But yeah, in an off season where Glasnow before FA gets $136m, I stand by that I think he gets Snell around $175m, Belinger around $175m, Montgomery around $150m and Chapman around $125m. (Forced to guess, I’d take the over on Snell and CB, almost exact for Monty unless he ends up in a no state income tax situation like Texas - which then might be more in the $130m range, and possibly a bit less for Chapman - he’s the one I think there is the least of the market for, admittedly).
A lot of these examples are second tier free agents, but, here is a summary of Boras clients who waited to sign, with the trend being the majority of those players got a lesser deal than was anticipated at the start of free agency:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/boras-clients-who-signed-after-january-in-previous-offseasons.html
Isn’t this info a bit incomplete, without knowing what offers these guys may have turned down earlier in the offseason? Like, do guys get less money then expected because they wait…or do they wait because they didn’t get offered what they expected?
FWIW Rosenthal was on TV the other day and (paraphrasing) said that he expects all of the Boras guys to do ok relative to their original expectations.
At this point I guess it’s simply a wait and see what they end up signing for. Buut, wouldn’t you think that these guys would want to know where the hell they‘re gonna be putting their roots down for the next several years by now? Camps are open, they have their families to think about, possibly learning new organizations, etc. etc…I just feel like Boras uses his guys as pawns to set the market for flawed players who he tries to sell as elite and is less and less getting them anything close to what he promises them. We shall see. I’ll be interested to see what they actually sign for and I’d be super surprised if it’s what @Big Papi's Mango Salsa predicted earlier in this thread.
It could be either, but part of Boras' job is to read the market and manage his clients' expectations. If they're not being offered what they expected, that's still a knock on Boras. Boras is right way more than he's wrong, but it's fair to question whether his approach costs certain players money.
Sure, but Fangraphs projections aren’t necessarily reality. Like, with the JD example, weren’t the Sox the primary bidder and it was kind of always assumed he’d end up here? If Snell ends up taking less than the Yankees offered, it will look like a loss but hard to know what any of these guys have really been offered. I’d imagine some of the younger guys will take pillow deals and try again next year. Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, Chapman are too good to not get paid. Some of the others will be in the outside looking in, yeah.
Reasonable question.
The answer is the number of pitches thrown and the number of batters faced. Improved defense means fewer batters faced, fewer pitches thrown, and more of an ability to get the right pitcher for the situation. Replay last season, but eliminate the worst 5% (I pulled that number out of my ass) of pitches thrown. Starters go a little longer. Relievers are used a little less. More of the late and close pitches are thrown by good relievers than bad.
Interesting note. The Sox were 26-20 in blowouts, but 18-25 in one-run games. How many times last year did it feel like we kept running pitchers out there until we found one to barf up some runs? We were slightly worse than league average at preventing runs last year. I'm not suggesting we'll rocket to the top, but that we'll be a bit better than average and win a few more of those close games. We were an 81-win pythag and underperformed by three games. If in 2024 we are an 83-win pythag and overperform by three games, we're right in the mix.
Last year we finished at the bottom of the cluster in the middle. Improved defense alone could get us to the top of the cluster in the middle. How we get from 85-ish wins to 90-ish wins or better, I dunno.
Very timely question. This came up in a Q&A with Manfred today. Apparently MLB made proposals to the MLBPA to have some sort of signing deadline. The MLBPA, not surprisingly, rejected those proposals.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/manfred-mlb-favors-free-agent-signing-deadline.html
Adrian Beltre, ironically enough, if you consider that a “big” contract.
View: https://twitter.com/billjamesonline/status/1758320725532823697?s=46
Damn, Bill came out of no where with the zing.
Damn, Bill came out of no where with the zing.
Flawless free agent? Probably the closest thing was Arod in 2001. 25 year old shortstop coming off a 10 WAR season, true 5-tool player at the time.
Small quibble here, but Glasnow was already making $25 this year, so it’s maybe more accurate to think he got an extension worth 4/$111 million guaranteed, which takes effect when he’s the same age Snell and Montgomery are now.
And Glasnow’s a much better pitcher than both. The injury concerns are real, but less so than we’d think given his history. (He was essentially misdiagnosed twice on his shoulder before ultimately needing surgery, so he may be less injury prone.)
Anyway, slightly different situation because he was never a free agent, but if anything, a 4/$111 deal for an ace like Glasnow seems to me like a correction downward. We could be looking at a scenario where deGrom’s 5/$185 deal, Nola’s 7/$172 and Rodón’s 6/$162 are the outliers. Obviously YY is a special case because of his youth.
Boras will probably find a way to use deferrals to inflate the nominal value of these four guys’ contracts (saving face) while reducing the actual value for the signing team.
Lindsay Adler has a piece about the unsigned Boras free agents in the Wall Street Journal.
I don't have a sub for that, but it's summarized in Sports Business Journal, quoting from the original.
I don't have a sub for that, but it's summarized in Sports Business Journal, quoting from the original.
Yeah, I thought that was a good piece. Behind a paywall, so I can’t quote too much, but this point stood out to me:
“The Boras philosophy is typically to not just get a player a contract deal that they find personally satisfactory, but to routinely establish new thresholds and benchmarks for comparable players who hit the market in the future. “
It can’t be simple to have an agent, as good as he is, whose agenda is always bigger than the individual player he’s representing. And this one:
“[Boras] might be attempting to find a match for Snell first to set a high bar for Montgomery, who will then potentially become more in demand as the last remaining true starter available as a free agent. “
Boras denies it, but I think that’s totally the case on Snell and Montgomery. He mostly needs Snell to sign first to set that bar, unless someone offers a crazy amount for Monty.
I’d say if I’m clearly a top 10% player, I’d totally go with Boras. Teams will pay for top talent. I still can’t believe that contract he got Bogaerts last year. But if I’m a middling, average-ish player, I stay away from him, because he’s not really focused on my individual interests (outside of setting up higher industry salary baselines).
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