Offseason rumors

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Montgomery
Bello
Sale
Lugo
Crawford

This rotation is why you throw as much money as you can at Yamamoto and worry about the costs later. Then trade your surplus minor league infielders (some of which are legit prospects) for a number two starter. Chris Sale should be nowhere near your top five starting pitchers and should not be counted on. Like at all How many times are we going to try and kick this football, Lucy?

Montgomery and Lugo are fine pitchers, but as we've seen since 1986, you need an ace. I think that Yamamoto is that ace and he just costs money. Spend it.

 

[BaseballJones]

This rotation is why you throw as much money as you can at Yamamoto and worry about the costs later. Then trade your surplus minor league infielders (some of which are legit prospects) for a number two starter. Chris Sale should be nowhere near your top five starting pitchers and should not be counted on. Like at all How many times are we going to try and kick this football, Lucy?

Montgomery and Lugo are fine pitchers, but as we've seen since 1986, you need an ace. I think that Yamamoto is that ace and he just costs money. Spend it.

I'm 100% with you. I've been on the "whatever it takes to sign Yamamoto" train for a long time now. He is *exactly* what they need, and it's not like he's 30. He's just 25.

 

[Auger34]

I’ve been reading @SouthernBoSox’s posts and I feel comfortable in saying that I will be very surprised if they don’t end up with one of YY and Imanaga if not both.

My guess is that the BIG get is Yamamoto or Montgomery and then Imanaga is the 2nd starter added.

0% chance that Lou is right and the Sox best pitching addition is Seth Lugo. This ownership knows how precarious their position is right now, they have to end up with something better than that

 

[Jimbodandy]

He might be right, but it feels odd that Merloni has given up on 2024 and 2025 so quickly.

@SouthernBoSox - SoSH might riot. (Well, half would say it's ok because we didn't trade any prospects so the long term plan remains and the other half would riot on our keyboards).

But, sadly, the Red Sox are right now somewhere between the Revs and Bruins in terms of interest and fan engagement among the general public in Boston.

That's John Henry's problem imo. It's not that Sox Nation would riot if the team doesn't land a significant starting pitcher. It's that they might not even care enough to riot. Not a good place to be.

I'm not an advocate of "making a splash" just because. And certainly the lack of rumors doesn't mean that the team won't land anyone. But not fixing an obvious problem with this team with available talent that truly only costs cash post-reset could doom this org to irrelevance for a few years, which was unthinkable previously.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I'm 100% with you. I've been on the "whatever it takes to sign Yamamoto" train for a long time now. He is *exactly* what they need, and it's not like he's 30. He's just 25.

I forgot that he's only 25. I'd go as high as YY wants, seriously. Number one to have him anchor my staff for x amount of years during his prime and to keep him away from my competitors. Free agents don't come around like this every year, if the Sox don't get him; it's going to be disappointing. And it will be very disappointing if the Yanks or the Jays do.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

I'm very comfortable with how Snell pitches. I'm just worried that he won't be healthy very much, since only twice in his entire career has he pitched more than 130 innings. If you're going to pay him to be an ace (which he absolutely is when he's healthy), you need him to shoulder a full workload. (these days, 180 innings is a full workload...these guys make Pedro Martinez look like Cy Young in terms of innings)

Yeah, that's a perfectly reasonable take. I can't argue with you there. If you're getting 120 IP from him, the contract is going to get ugly.

 

[Cassvt2023]

This just in from Tomase of NBC SportsBoston...sounds like he's been reading this thread.....

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/craig-breslows-time-execute-vision-161803440.html

 

[YTF]

Lugo and Montgomery would definitely help, but I don't know if it would be enough to get the Sox into the playoffs.

Montgomery
Bello
Sale
Lugo
Crawford

I mean, that wouldn't be a bad rotation. It would have the potential to be excellent, if Bello takes his next step forward, and if Montgomery continues doing what he's done the last 3 seasons, and if Sale is healthy. That happens and now you're looking at a really, really good rotation. But that's a bunch of IFs. Because I could see Bello not quite being ready for that next leap forward, and I could see Sale being un-healthy, and I could see Montgomery regress some. Then it's just a meh rotation.

But I guess I could live with it if that's what they end up with. But if all they add is Lugo....yuck. (no shade thrown on Lugo, who is adequate, but they need more than that)

Playoffs should be a goal most seasons, but here's what I really hope to see next in '24. I want to see all of the obvious upgrades that the team needs. I fully appreciate that they are not likely to land their top target for every need, but sound fundamentals, smart situational baseball, better defense, good base running and perhaps defined roles for Houck and Whitock are all areas of need that can lead to a better brand of baseball. I would love to also see more consistancy on offense. The offensive peaks for this team has been very high the past two seasons while the valleys seem at least twice as low. They go on tears where they score 9-10 per game for a week and struggle to score 2 per for the next two weeks.

There certainly is much work to be done, but these issues being addressed should lead to more wins and a much more enjoyable season to watch.

 

[TomRicardo]

Yeah, that's a perfectly reasonable take. I can't argue with you there. If you're getting 120 IP from him, the contract is going to get ugly.

Especially with the rotation that exists. Bello is the only one you can squint and pencil in for 180 IP.

That is what makes YY so sexy. There is just a high chance for 200+ IP. Imanaga and Bauer would be my preferred middle rotation guys.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’ve been reading @SouthernBoSox’s posts and I feel comfortable in saying that I will be very surprised if they don’t end up with one of YY and Imanaga if not both.

My guess is that the BIG get is Yamamoto or Montgomery and then Imanaga is the 2nd starter added.

0% chance that Lou is right and the Sox best pitching addition is Seth Lugo. This ownership knows how precarious their position is right now, they have to end up with something better than that

I think Imanaga is such an obvious fit based in the dev program feedback that I think the only way they don’t sign him is if they sign Yamamoto.

Which isn’t Montgomery + Imanaga at say 130% the cost of Yamamto plus keeping your prospects a better outcome than just signing Yamamoto?

I think so.

 

[sambamcunningham22]

This rotation is why you throw as much money as you can at Yamamoto and worry about the costs later. Then trade your surplus minor league infielders (some of which are legit prospects) for a number two starter. Chris Sale should be nowhere near your top five starting pitchers and should not be counted on. Like at all How many times are we going to try and kick this football, Lucy?

Montgomery and Lugo are fine pitchers, but as we've seen since 1986, you need an ace. I think that Yamamoto is that ace and he just costs money. Spend it.

May NOT be about money. Yamamoto wants to be on a winning team and one that is in playoff contention.
Red Sox are not attractive at present for free agents based on ownership financial decisions and recent last place finishes.
He will not sign with Red Sox.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Which isn’t Montgomery + Imanaga at say 130% the cost of Yamamto plus keeping your prospects a better outcome than just signing Yamamoto?

I get what you're saying, but at some point you have to deal your prospects. You simply can't keep everyone. I'm thinking that the time is about now to do so with players who won't make the next really good Sox team. Especially for pitching. This is GM/PoBO's toughest job and it's why they get paid a lot of cash.

Holding on to prospects and letting them atrophy does the parent club, nor the prospect any favors.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

May NOT be about money. Yamamoto wants to be on a winning team and one that is in playoff contention.
Red Sox are not attractive at present for free agents based on ownership financial decisions and recent last place finishes.
He will not sign with Red Sox.

I don't completely disagree, but like the great Ted DiBiase used to say, "Everyone has a price". The Sox have Million Dollar Man money, they should use it. Because like Jimbo Dandy pointed out, if it's another year of three-to-four range starters and a whole bunch of hope that Bello makes the leap and Sale turns back into CHRIS SALE, there's not going to be rioting in the streets. It's going to be indifference and nothing destroys a franchise like indifference* -- especially since the new guy came in and said things are going to change.

* And if the Sox don't make big, sexy moves the next thing that the media will turn to is Alex Cora and whether he's going somewhere in 2025. That will be the big story and there's a couple of people murmuring about it right now, and I'm already bored to death of the topic.

 

[chawson]

Game threads would explode if the Sox signed Blake Snell. The guy will walk the first two guys in the inning and then strike out the next 3. He's an electric roller coaster on the mound. I live in San Diego and have watched nearly all of his starts over the past few years. First off, the guy is awesome. Just a really cool dude, down to earth, funny, easy going. The easy-going part might not vibe well with Boston like it does here in SD but he's absolutely a guy you can root for.

He doesn't go deep into games because he throws a lot of pitches trying to strike everyone out. But who goes that deep into games anymore? The guy pitched 0.1 innings per start less than Ohtani did last year and 0.2 innings per start more than Dylan Cease. We'd all love a Sandy Alcantara throwing 7 innings per game at the front of the rotation, but what you will get from Snell is 5-6 dominant innings every 5 days. He will keep you in nearly every game he takes the mound. With a good bullpen and solid offense, that's going to win you a ton of games. FWIW he threw 6 innings or more in 20 of his 32 starts last year. Montgomery, for comparison, was 21 of 32. Montgomery is likely to be more consistent year to year, but Snell on his game is a dominant pitcher. He just goes about it in a way that would drive this board crazy pitching himself into and out of jams.

Snell's the guy you get if you've got a terrible defense, since his success is so defense-independent. Montgomery's the guy you get if you've got a great defense, which helps play him up like an ace.

Which does the 2024 Red Sox have?

I'm warming to Snell. He's very good at preventing deep fly balls to left field, which is a rare and wonderful trait for a LHSP. Gotta think he's a west coast guy though.

I think most people wildly overstate the deficiencies of our rotation last year. There's a spread of 55 runs at shortstop (by DRS) between a full season of Trevor Story and a full season of Kiké Hernandez last year. Our pitching is going to be better regardless.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I get what you're saying, but at some point you have to deal your prospects. You simply can't keep everyone. I'm thinking that the time is about now to do so with players who won't make the next really good Sox team. Especially for pitching. This is GM/PoBO's toughest job and it's why they get paid a lot of cash.

Holding on to prospects and letting them atrophy does the parent club, nor the prospect any favors.

Completely agree with this- but it’s really difficult to make trades when you don’t have the one thing everyone wants in return- young, high ceiling, cost controlled pitchers- to deal.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think Imanaga is such an obvious fit based in the dev program feedback that I think the only way they don’t sign him is if they sign Yamamoto.

Which isn’t Montgomery + Imanaga at say 130% the cost of Yamamto plus keeping your prospects a better outcome than just signing Yamamoto?

I think so.

It seems like Imanaga has been very high on the Sox radar and a top, if not the top, target. I'll be somewhat surprised if the Sox don't sign him.
I think they'll get a second starter as well, probably either Montgomery, or through a trade. Of course it would be great to have Yamamoto, but I'm not a believer in signing at all costs, especially for someone who has never thrown a pitch in MLB. Get Imanaga and either Montgomery or Burnes/Seattle pitcher and I'd be very happy with the offseason.

 

[Max Power]

Isn't Snell begging to pitch for the Mariners? I think there's a better chance of the Red Sox ending up with one of the Mariners current starters than Snell.

We know Yamamoto is an ace in Japan, but I'm curious how he transitions. His K/9 and BB/9 are both very good, but not the best in Japan. It's his home run rate that's his one exceptional skill. He was at 0.1 per 9 this past season and 0.3 per 9 in his career. Is that something you carry with you? Or will the home run happy MLB players prove much harder to keep in the park?

 

[Trapaholic]

I just did a quick search for Shoto Imanaga, and apparently his nickname is "The Throwing Philosopher". Now I am all in.

 

[JM3]

Maybe we should maybe just like trust that Craig Breslow knows more about pitching than us & give him like...some time to do his thing?

The Cubs have the #2 system in baseball per the BR ratings, & unlike basically every other team, 3 of their top 4 prospects are pitchers.

2. RHP Cade Horton (Tier 1) - 7th overall pick in '22
3. RHP Ben Brown (Tier 1) - 33rd round pick by the Phillies in '17, acquired for David Robertson August '22.
4. LHP Jordan Wicks (Tier 1) - 21st overall pick in '21

They have also recently made a top of the rotation starter out of Justin Steele (5th rounder in '14).

Andrew Bailey has recently revitalized the careers of Kevin Gausman & Carlos Rodon, & made an ace out of Logan Webb (4th rounder in '14) who had an ERA over 5 in each of his 1st 2 seasons.

It's great to have opinions on who the Red Sox should get & what their needs are...but the amount of handwringing over this off season is really repetitive, pointless, unnecessarily dramatic & kind of silly. I think they'll try hard to pitch YY, & if he's interested in what they have to offer, great. If he isn't, they'll pivot & add 2 other guys who they deem to be good fits for whatever reason, & that will be fine, too.

But Breslow has stated clearly that he doesn't really want to add a guy with a QO, so I would guess we're not actually in on Snell & just being used as a flight to Toronto. & Breslow has said he isn't interested in trading for rentals (& less believably the Brewers have said Burnes isn't on the table), so that seems unlikely to be a thing, too.

 

[YTF]

I just did a quick search for Shoto Imanaga, and apparently his nickname is "The Throwing Philosopher". Now I am all in.

Plus 1000% if his career plays out like Greg "The Professor" Maddux.

 

[JM3]

Morosi named the usual suspects for Yamamoto but also discussed Imanaga.

Mentioned Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox & Cubs on Imanaga, but thought it was possible other contending NL teams would try to get in on Imanaga to counter the lefty-heavy Dodgers lineup.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1734613957615276337

Also, here are the current Yamamoto betting odds...

Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024 Team Odds

Team	Odds	Implied Probability
New York Mets	+175	37.4%
New York Yankees	+200	33.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers	+250	28.6%
Boston Red Sox	+1750	5.4%
San Francisco Giants	+1800	5.3%
Chicago Cubs	+2000	4.8%
St. Louis Cardinals	+2000	4.8%

https://bookies.com/mlb/picks/yoshinobu-yamamoto-next-team-odds

 

[moondog80]

Morosi named the usual suspects for Yamamoto but also discussed Imanaga.

Mentioned Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox & Cubs on Imanaga, but thought it was possible other contending NL teams would try to get in on Imanaga to counter the lefty-heavy Dodgers lineup.

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1734613957615276337

Also, here are the current Yamamoto betting odds...



https://bookies.com/mlb/picks/yoshinobu-yamamoto-next-team-odds

Red Sox seems like a nice bargain.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

It's great to have opinions on who the Red Sox should get & what their needs are...but the amount of handwringing over this off season is really repetitive, pointless, unnecessarily dramatic & kind of silly. I think they'll try hard to pitch YY, & if he's interested in what they have to offer, great. If he isn't, they'll pivot & add 2 other guys who they deem to be good fits for whatever reason, & that will be fine, too.

So you're suggesting that people shouldn't post too much until something actually happens; otherwise post after post after post after post speculating on what the Red Sox may do is just ineffectual, redundant and boring?

SoSH will take that under advisement. Thank you.

 

[JM3]

So you're suggesting that people shouldn't post too much until something actually happens; otherwise post after post after post after post speculating on what the Red Sox may do is just ineffectual, redundant and boring?

No.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

No.

You sure?

 

[JM3]

You sure?

Yes. I know what my post said & what I meant by my post. You saying something different because you have an issue with my posting for whatever reason does not mean I meant what you said because you said it.

I find the low-content sky-is-falling whining redundant and boring, but I don't mean to crap on your lane. Please carry on.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Yes. I know what my post said & what I meant by my post. You saying something different because you have an issue with my posting for whatever reason does not mean I meant what you said because you said it.

I find the low-content sky-is-falling whining redundant and boring, but I don't mean to crap on your lane. Please carry on.

I don't have an issue with what you post. I have an issue with how many times you post. Your signal to noise sucks and is bringing down the board. You want to write a lot? Get a blogger account.

You can sit a couple threads out, Champ.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I don't think any of us would be heartbroken to sign both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga. I highly doubt we'd get both and, possibly, we may strike out on both. If Snell is intent on going to Seattle and they have interest in signing him, that leaves Montgomery and who? Lugo? Giolito? Do we trade for Burnes and hope to extend him right away? I like the idea of doing the latter and grabbing Adames with him. Don't care who plays 2B and who plays SS between him and Story, just hoping Story remembers how to hit. The improved defense in the middle infield over what we had most of 2023, along with actual starting pitchers rather than Openers, and we are in the hunt this past year. We had neither. We haven't lost much outside of Verdugo (love him or hate him) and, honestly, no one else in the AL East has done much other than Soto to the Yankees - which, although huge, I don't think outweighs us adding two decent to great starters and improving our MI.

 

[moondog80]

NM

 

[BaseballJones]

Seems like if the Sox don't get Yamamoto, they really, really need Montgomery. Even though he kinda needs good defense behind him, and the Sox aren't exactly known for that, he's still a good pitcher and the Sox need more good pitchers.

 

[JM3]

I don't have an issue with what you post. I have an issue with how many times you post. Your signal to noise sucks and is bringing down the board. You want to write a lot? Get a blogger account.

You can sit a couple threads out, Champ.

I think we have very different ideas of what constitutes signal on a baseball message board. I will leave it at that, and leave you to it.

 

[GPO Man]

Could Imanaga be 80% of what Yamamoto can be in the bigs? He may be the better get, value wise.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

I don't have an issue with what you post. I have an issue with how many times you post. Your signal to noise sucks and is bringing down the board. You want to write a lot? Get a blogger account.

You can sit a couple threads out, Champ.

This is a weird take. A dope goes after one of the better members on a board starved for good content.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

This is a weird take. A dope goes after one of the better members on a board starved for good content.

If you want to discuss, my PMs are open.

 

[1974pawsox]

This is a weird take. A dope goes after one of the better members on a board starved for good content.

+1

 

[nighthob]

I don't think any of us would be heartbroken to sign both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga. I highly doubt we'd get both and, possibly, we may strike out on both. If Snell is intent on going to Seattle and they have interest in signing him, that leaves Montgomery and who? Lugo? Giolito? Do we trade for Burnes and hope to extend him right away? I like the idea of doing the latter and grabbing Adames with him. Don't care who plays 2B and who plays SS between him and Story, just hoping Story remembers how to hit. The improved defense in the middle infield over what we had most of 2023, along with actual starting pitchers rather than Openers, and we are in the hunt this past year. We had neither. We haven't lost much outside of Verdugo (love him or hate him) and, honestly, no one else in the AL East has done much other than Soto to the Yankees - which, although huge, I don't think outweighs us adding two decent to great starters and improving our MI.

The new CBO is a pitching guru, so maybe Boston works on fixing Houck and helping Bello take that next step forward. The latter of which will happen anyway now that they've replaced their Band of Shortstops (and the Black Lace of shortstop bands at that) with Trevor Story.

Breslow's last organization was very good at identifying undervalued pitching assets and developing them. That can happen here as well. Would I love it if Boston landed Yamamoto? Yep. But I won't be donning sackcloth and covering myself in ash if they don't. People obsessing over the need to add two #1 starters really need to relax a little. You don't need to be the '95-'99 Braves to win, the '14-'15 Royals went to the World Series and won a title too.

 

[Cassvt2023]

+1

+2 (and i'm sure many more to come)

 

[RedOctober3829]

The new CBO is a pitching guru, so maybe Boston works on fixing Houck and helping Bello take that next step forward. The latter of which will happen anyway now that they've replaced their Band of Shortstops (and the Black Lace of shortstop bands at that) with Trevor Story.

Breslow's last organization was very good at identifying undervalued pitching assets and developing them. That can happen here as well. Would I love it if Boston landed Yamamoto? Yep. But I won't be donning sackcloth and covering myself in ash if they don't. People obsessing over the need to add two #1 starters really need to relax a little. You don't need to be the '95-'99 Braves to win, the '14-'15 Royals went to the World Series and won a title too.

Might not need 2 number 1’s, but they have to get 1. That means being ultra aggressive financially which they haven’t been willing to do for a few years in the pitching market.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/martinonyc/status/1734649442576281713

 

[nighthob]

Might not need 2 number 1’s, but they have to get 1. That means being ultra aggressive financially which they haven’t been willing to do for a few years in the pitching market.

Have a look at the 2015 Royals, a team that rolled to a World Series victory, by the way, and tell me who the ace in that rotation was. While it helps to have an ace, you can survive without one if you solid starters and a lights out bullpen.Boston is clearly looking to fill the ace role with Yamamoto, but if he signs elsewhere, we shouldn't be shocked if they pivot towards more solid/workhorse type pitchers and more bullpen upgrades. Again, the massive defensive upgrade of Story at SS is going to improve Boston's starters anyway.

 

[YTF]

If you want to discuss, my PMs are open.

I've a great deal of respect and appreciation for the folks that facilitate this site and keep it afloat. That said, I think it's a bad look to bait a guy who posts a lot of interesting content and call him champ as you suggest he take a break.

 

[BornToRun]

I've a great deal of respect and appreciation for the folks that facilitate this site and keep it afloat. That said, I think it's a bad look to bait a guy who posts a lot of interesting content and call him champ as you suggest he take a break.

Yeah, I’ve got to agree. It seems unwarranted and needlessly confrontational.

 

[Just a bit outside]

+2 (and i'm sure many more to come)

+3

 

[johnnywayback]

Didn't we just see, and haven't we all been nervously laughing about, what happens when a team decides one guy is The Guy They Must Have At All Costs? That kind of thinking leads to giving Xander Bogaerts an 11-year, $280 million contract.

I would for sure like them to be the high bidder on Yamamoto, and my instinct would be to happily top whatever offers he gets elsewhere. But I can definitely see a scenario where he has his heart set on New York or Los Angeles, and if the only way to get him away from his preferred destination would be a stupid Bogaerts-esque overpay, count me out.

 

[BornToRun]

I don't think any of us would be heartbroken to sign both Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shōta Imanaga. I highly doubt we'd get both and, possibly, we may strike out on both. If Snell is intent on going to Seattle and they have interest in signing him, that leaves Montgomery and who? Lugo? Giolito? Do we trade for Burnes and hope to extend him right away? I like the idea of doing the latter and grabbing Adames with him. Don't care who plays 2B and who plays SS between him and Story, just hoping Story remembers how to hit. The improved defense in the middle infield over what we had most of 2023, along with actual starting pitchers rather than Openers, and we are in the hunt this past year. We had neither. We haven't lost much outside of Verdugo (love him or hate him) and, honestly, no one else in the AL East has done much other than Soto to the Yankees - which, although huge, I don't think outweighs us adding two decent to great starters and improving our MI.

I’d rather we steer clear of Snell. Yes he’s been great but he also struggles to push past 5 innings and walks a ton of guys even at his best. Seems like a good candidate for buyer‘s remorse in the not too distant future with the offenses in this division. If we miss out on Yamamoto, and given the current outlook I’m expecting it, I’d prefer we shift to Montgomery and finding that 1 or potential 1 via trade. Whether that’s Burnes or one of the kids in Seattle.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1734604804423360815?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I’d rather we steer clear of Snell. Yes he’s been great but he also struggles to push past 5 innings and walks a ton of guys even at his best. Seems like a good candidate for buyer‘s remorse in the not too distant future with the offenses in this division. If we miss out on Yamamoto, and given the current outlook I’m expecting it, I’d prefer we shift to Montgomery and finding that 1 or potential 1 via trade. Whether that’s Burnes or one of the kids in Seattle.

Yes, one of the kids from Seattle would also be great.

As for Dopes bullying people, I agree with the masses, it's not a good look and should be avoided

 

[rodderick]

Multiple teams have indicated that Yamamoto is their number one acquisition target of the off-season. The overwhelming majority of them will fail to sign him. Will it say something about the competence of every team he chooses not to go with?

Yes.

 

[simplicio]

+3

+4

 

[RedOctober3829]

Seth Lugo is off the board.
View: https://twitter.com/anne__rogers/status/1734663867496546802?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q