There is a difference between 'ever' and the year after you signed the "Premier" Japanese player on the market to your team.
Offseason rumors
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I believe it's only an option in the somewhat bored minds of some Soshers, who are trying to play GM. Or Whatever Breslow's title is.
The Gleyber talk doesn't make a ton of sense to me. All last year we were hammering this team for it's defense. If we really value defense, Yoshida needs to move to DH. He can fill in occasionally in left but we can't let him be our starting LF. So assuming we spend all our FA dollars on pitching we're talking about something like Duran to LF, C-Note to CF, Abreu in RF.
Duran is a high variance player, and then you'd be leaning on two rookies. A ton of potential upside, but also a really uncomfortable looking floor. If there's an injury you're looking at moving Yoshida back to left, or Refsnyder into a starting role, bringing in another outfielder, etc. Meanwhile, Verdugo has demonstrated a plus glove in right with a reliably average or better bat. Excluding handedness and attitude, this seems like exactly the player this outfield needs.
With Torres, we'd be committing to poor defense in the middle of the IF when we've already got some solid depth pieces with upside, including Urias, C-Note, Valdez, and Reyes. This seems like a group you can mix and match with, and outside of Urias they make veritable pennies. I'd roll with this group rather than bring in a guy that that the Yankees themselves are trying to move on from.
Duran is a high variance player, and then you'd be leaning on two rookies. A ton of potential upside, but also a really uncomfortable looking floor. If there's an injury you're looking at moving Yoshida back to left, or Refsnyder into a starting role, bringing in another outfielder, etc. Meanwhile, Verdugo has demonstrated a plus glove in right with a reliably average or better bat. Excluding handedness and attitude, this seems like exactly the player this outfield needs.
With Torres, we'd be committing to poor defense in the middle of the IF when we've already got some solid depth pieces with upside, including Urias, C-Note, Valdez, and Reyes. This seems like a group you can mix and match with, and outside of Urias they make veritable pennies. I'd roll with this group rather than bring in a guy that that the Yankees themselves are trying to move on from.
Not sure if this is new reporting but according to a recent MLBTR chat, Boston is in on Shota Imanaga:
Icemanchills
7:02
Will the Yankees/Mets be in on Shota Imanaga
Mark P
7:03
To some extent, yes. We haven't heard a ton about specific teams in on Imanaga besides Boston, but it can be assumed that several clubs have scouted him and have him on the radar
Icemanchills
7:02
Will the Yankees/Mets be in on Shota Imanaga
Mark P
7:03
To some extent, yes. We haven't heard a ton about specific teams in on Imanaga besides Boston, but it can be assumed that several clubs have scouted him and have him on the radar
Soto actually can play RF. His defensive woes are more effort than talent. He has an above average arm and gets a good break on balls. He doesn't follow through some times in effort in his routes. He would be more effective in Fenway LF but has the arm and the ability to play RF.
I don't see how Yoshida plays LF in San Diego. That field is massive.
Juan Soto would just be a good fielder if he tried hard is certainly a take...
If it's true, he's pretty clearly the laziest man in baseball. He was in the 3rd percentile in range & 9th percentile in fielding value last year. Yes, he has a decent arm, but he had the 10th worst OAA in baseball this year (ahead of Casas & Hernandez among others). In '22 he was tied for 2nd worst (Schwarber was last each of the last 2 years).
I still think the defense stats on Yoshida are skewed in a way that hurts all Sox LF’ers.
He wasn’t good…. But he’s really not THAT bad. And seeing other players have pretty high variance in defensive ratings year to year makes me think he needs more time there, not less. Ideally a guy like Trout more than Soto IMO, to play both at DH (to keep Trout healthy) and rotate them through LF and RF respectively with a Rafaela and Duran or Abreu out there too.
Juan is the closest thing to having a LHH Manny Ramirez in the game today. I am not sure what his view on pregnancy drugs are.
He's certainly not on a decline age-wise (turned 25 last month), & he rakes. But his sprint speed has dropped from 60th percentile in '19 to 37th percentile now. He could just be bulking out of the outfield.
The vast majority of Soto's miscues are on balls hit by left-handed batters, slicing away from him. Oddly, he was +1 against RHB last year (Statcast).
This is a little counterintuitive to me. Right-handed hitters facing the Padres in Petco hit line drives and fly balls to left at an average exit velocity of 93.3 mph. Left-handed hitters facing the Padres in PETCO hit line drives and fly balls to left field at an average of 88.6 mph. You'd think that if it was a matter of athleticism, some of the bad defense would show up against right-handed batters, but it doesn't.
Do the Padres position Soto a little closer to center field to account for Petco's deep power alleys? I don't know. But this data suggests that there could be something kind of atypical about his bad defense, and that playing in front of the Green Monster could really help.
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OAA already factors in where the player is actually aligned, how hard the balls are hit, & how far from the fielder they are hit. That split seems like SSS noise...for his career Soto is -9 against RHB & -14 against LHB. In 2019, for example, he was -1 against RHB & +8 against LHB. But, yes, the less ground a player has to cover, the less problematic a lack of range is.
Yeah, for sure. I thought I said that if the Sox sign YY, then a trade of MY is off the table. In fact, I did say that in my follow-up: "IF Yoshida being in Boston is part of what lures Yamamoto to Boston, then no, of course he (edit: he = MY) can’t be traded after a YY signing.
If YY signs elsewhere, then I would definitely look for an opportunity to move MY."
Yellich was actually good last year (4.1 WAR on fangraphs), which means the Brewers will almost certainly do everything that can to trade him. The next 5 years are the 32-37 year old segment of his contract - and they definitely don't want any part of that.
If the Sox were to take on some substantial part of that contract you'd have to think that this would make it a hell of a lot cheaper to trade for Burnes and Adames, and this would seriously upgrade three major weakness: starting pitching, RH power, and infield defense. Of course, they'd be stuck with another LHB who would be best served by playing DH (Yellich) who might otherwise be best in LF, but at least might be Yellich better in the field than Yoshida (who would presumably shift to DH). You'd probably want to trade someone like Abreu and/or Duran as part of this trade as the team would otherwise have way too many LH Ofers.
Disagree, they have to pay someone and he is the only one they are paying a eight figure salary to in 2025 as of now.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N0fXQJkUL2e02XkezJt-64eJv7WB2CAngVKrM_RAHlA/edit#gid=1520401900
Couldn't it be a function of Petco? Or some combination of injuries plus moving to a park with a bigger outfield? If there is some issue covering ground to his right while in LF, the career numbers may not capture the problem since he spent 2020-2022 in the other corner. He had calf and back issues the past two years, which I imagine was a factor.
My broader point is that his bat and age are so plus that his defense doesn’t matter. And it’s no sure thing he can’t improve (again). He went from a +4 OAA 22-year-old outfielder in 2021 to a negative-16, 23-year-old one the next year.
To me it seems like acquiring Manny again, but a left-handed version four years younger.
Well, in '22 he was -11 for the Nats prior to the trade. So who knows? Obviously having Soto on your team is an awesome thing. It's just a matter of whether he'll be worth the trade cost for 1 year and then either whatever the dollar figure is on a huge extension or the comp value when he walks away after a year.
& he's a much cleaner fit in other places, so I assume we won't be the highest bidder because of that.
I don't think there is an actual team minimum, but even OAK had a $56M payroll this year.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2023/04/06/mlb-team-payrolls-2023-highest-lowest-mets/11612107002/
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1724474634974703904
Joel Wolfe, is also Yamamoto agent.....
Joel Wolfe, is also Yamamoto agent.....
No, but there are now a lot more players at the top of the market than there were even five years ago so the offer spreads are probably narrower.
That said, I agree its almost definitely a nothing-burger Cashman can sort with an apology call...but I'm glad its happening in NYC not here.
He's right though.
This is heresay but no, I think the idea is that you can't just jerk around players of a certain stature, who left Japan and made the effort to join your club across the globe. Or you can! But don't complain if the next guy would rather play somewhere else.
That's 90% normal human behavior, but I think the one generalization you can actually make about how Japanese culture is different from here is that they will likely place a higher premium on being treated with respect (versus just money or whatever) than a westerner would.
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Stanton has played in 63% of Yankee games since he joined the team 6 years ago. It is not a stretch to say what BC said, but it is probably dumb to say. I’m here for it if it gives the Sox a 1% better chance at signing Yamamoto-san!
I don’t know. It’s kind of trashy for a GM to play pundit like that. In a market like NY (or Boston or Philly), you deal with so much BS, that I bet it’s really important emotionally to feel like folks inside the organization have your back.
In response to that sort of question, I’d like to hear a GM-type say something like, “It’s true. Stanton has been held back from his past elite production by health issues. This is why we’re taking X steps to help him regain his past level of play…”
In other words, take the responsibility onto the org, not the player.
Maybe they've tried to do that in-house and Cashman thinks that by publicly shaming Stanton, that Stanton will take off-season conditioning seriously?
IDK. I mean, it's not a great look but if I'm the Yankees I'm kinda at the end of my rope with this guy. He's a huge chunk of their budget and a big spot in their lineup.
This. Cashman is a smart guy who has been doing the job for a long time. He's not some neophyte who needs to be coached on what to say in public. If he put this out there, he did it for a reason.
Well...the Stanton stuff was only a few days after an hour-long expletive-laced "rant" where Cashman called a former Yankees minor league prospect "Bitter Boy" & bragged (?) about how small their analytics department was. It was not exactly a calculated, hinged press conference.
Michael Kay has referred to the interview as, "Indefensible" & nj.com referred to it as an "hour-long tantrum".
But there is a theory out there that this particular public-shaming was for the purposes of trying to get Stanton to waive his no trade clause...
https://theathletic.com/5042054/2023/11/07/yankees-gm-brian-cashman-rant-analytics/
Michael Kay has referred to the interview as, "Indefensible" & nj.com referred to it as an "hour-long tantrum".
But there is a theory out there that this particular public-shaming was for the purposes of trying to get Stanton to waive his no trade clause...
View: https://twitter.com/JakeAsman/status/1724476386352525476
I'm referring to Michael Kay as 'way more ignorant about an organization he has covered for decades than he should be" and nj.com as 'not worth clicking on no matter how starved you are for Yankee news'.
Cashman probably shouldn't have said that but also people whine endlessly about wanting to hear more directly from GMs and owners. Either they're going to say nothing when they talk (generally prudent) or they're going to occasionally slip up and speak the truth.
FWIW, Cashman also said right after the other Stanton comments:
"But I know that when he’s right and healthy, other than this past year, the guy’s a great hitter and has been for a long time."
I think Cashman is super defensive following the Joel Sherman criticism in the NYPost at the end of the season and the appearance that Hal and Judge are working behind the scenes in a push for changes. Cashman's quotes are direct responses to Hal's criticisms at his press conference and the Sherman article.
Not the end of the world for the Yankees, and money talks for free agents, but I wouldn't want the Sox GM/braintrust to be airing the dirty laundry like this at the start of the off-season.
https://nypost.com/2023/09/25/yankees-in-dire-need-of-a-front-office-evolution/
Jomboy has a good take on all of this:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVvSjeK2fuw
Not the end of the world for the Yankees, and money talks for free agents, but I wouldn't want the Sox GM/braintrust to be airing the dirty laundry like this at the start of the off-season.
https://nypost.com/2023/09/25/yankees-in-dire-need-of-a-front-office-evolution/
Jomboy has a good take on all of this:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVvSjeK2fuw
What do we think about taking a flyer on Cal Quantrill? Perhaps we have too many #4-6 starters already.
View: https://twitter.com/zackmeisel/status/1724567690780512731
View: https://twitter.com/zackmeisel/status/1724567690780512731
He strikes me as more of a 9th or 10th starter. Flyball pitcher in the 1st percentile in strikeouts & 6th percentile in xERA. 5.2 k/9 & 3.2 bb/9 doesn't really work for me.
I’m done with projects and reclamations. Whose slot is he going to take?
Maybe as a late-in-the-offseason non-roster invite but I would not make him a priority now.
Agreed. Feels like a guy who should shift to the NL Central or something. I hate the low K/9 guys, especially for a team that doesn’t play much defense.
Those types are fine IMO but that’s what Pivetta, Crawford and Houck really are at this point- I mean in taking guys who may or may not pitch well based on some out of context stats. Those guys are fine for 4-6 type starters if you don’t have them in types like the guys on the Sox. They need a no. and a no.2 period. Sale is neither of those. Bello is possibly in a year or two…. But the margins are filled on this team. They need top arms
This is an important and often unasked question when we look at players that we think the Sox might or should be interested in. If he requires a 40 man slot he doesn't seem to be a fit at this point.
FWIW I agree with your (or your friend's) assessment and your last few posts on this topic. One of the biggest drivers for these guys who move from the other side of the world, speaking little to no English, not used to the schedule or the time zones or the ball or the culture, is how well they'll fit in with a given team and city. Within reason, they'll absolutely take less to play somewhere that feels like a better fit.
They also do understand it's a business and if they stink they're getting moved (Kaz Matsui, Yoshi Tsutsugo etc). But, as you say, for players of a certain stature, jerking them around is only ever going to hurt down the road.
Trading Yoshida while trying to sign Yamamoto would just be idiotic. Even if Yamamoto signs elsewhere, trading Yoshida now would imho badly hurt the Sox' chances at signing any Japanese players over the next several years. And I don't think they want to do that when one of those guys is likely to be Roki Sasaki, maybe as early as 2025.
I agree about the defense and I am baffled by the idea of looking to trade Yoshida. Now, if a team approached the Sox and wanted to make an offer, obviously they should consider it, but I don't get why they'd be actively looking to move him one year into his deal. He put up phenomenal numbers over a four month span and then faded. Fangraphs projects him at .291/.361/.460 with 18 homers next year which I think is definitely within reach considering he put up these rough numbers for the four month stretch of April through July last year: .301/.362/.479 with 12 homers. Something closer to that type of production through the year would make the $18 million a year contract look good.
Thanks. One thing I appreciate about the Sox is that they have had people over there for a long time, so chances are they understand the subtle cultural stuff pretty well, or at least someone in the org does. I only lived there for a year in the 90s and I hear kids now aren't quite like their parents but I can't imagine the fundamental stuff has changed that much. In which case a certain level of loyalty is a whole different ballgame there than we are used to in the US.
If we are looking at trading some of our 4-6 guys, then Quantrill is a good pick-up. His last two full seasons of 21 and 22 were very good. The first half of his 23 season was terrible, but when he returned his September was very good. 28 yrs with 3 yrs of Arb. If the price is decent or he hits waivers I would not be upset at this move.
I'm with you. Trading Yoshida right now seems silly to me. I think he can get by in LF for another season, but even if you think the defense is so bad that he can't play there every day, the DH spot is wide open. Move him to DH, keep your reputation with Japanese players intact and see if his solid bat can get even better in year 2 in America and the big leagues. Sure, I'd like more power at the DH spot, but would it surprise anyone if he put up similar numbers to what Turner just did?
Yoshi: 289/338/455, 15 HR, 71 R, 72 RBI, 8 SB
Turner: 276/345/455, 23 HR, 86 R, 96 RBI, 4 SB
Maybe the power doesn't quite get there but moving him to DH allows the OF defense to get better and you're (hopefully) getting similar production at DH to what you just got from Turner. This also allows you to allocate the $ you spent on Turner towards more pitching with Duran/Rafaela/Abreu/Verdugo/RHH FA or Trade in the OF mix (and, fingers crossed, Roman Anthony forcing his way to Boston in the 2nd half).
Quantrill is weird because of how consistently & how drastically he overperformed his xFIP the last 3 years prior to this past year.
'19: 5.16 ERA, 4.53 xFIP
'20: 2.25 ERA, 4.27 xFIP
'21: 2.89 ERA, 4.43 xFIP
'22: 3.38 ERA, 4.39 xFIP
'23: 5.24 ERA, 5.43 xFIP
& that September that Idaho mentioned was a 2.76 ERA...but a 5.53 xFIP in 32.2 IP. So it's hard to say if that's a fluke, or just Quantrill getting back to doing Quantrill things.
'19: 5.16 ERA, 4.53 xFIP
'20: 2.25 ERA, 4.27 xFIP
'21: 2.89 ERA, 4.43 xFIP
'22: 3.38 ERA, 4.39 xFIP
'23: 5.24 ERA, 5.43 xFIP
& that September that Idaho mentioned was a 2.76 ERA...but a 5.53 xFIP in 32.2 IP. So it's hard to say if that's a fluke, or just Quantrill getting back to doing Quantrill things.
In other words, Matt Cain syndrome. Cain made a career as a moderate-strikeout, fly ball pitcher whose ERAs were always a run or so better than his xFIPs for like eight straight seasons… until suddenly he lost whatever magic was keeping his fastball off the sweet spot and the fly balls started leaving the yard.
I am confidant that if the DH spot is open, the Sox can figure out how to use that flexibility to maximize Yoshida's production/performance. I'm really excited to see what he can do after a normal off-season and a full spring training.
EDIT- look at Yoshida's pre-all-star game stats from last year: .316/.382/.492 with 10 home runs, 19 doubles and 2 triples. That was over 78 games. He only played in 62 games after the all-star game and his stats really cratered in August and September.
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