Offseason rumors
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He is thinking about his legacy and has limited time left on this planet. He’s broken the curse and won multiple WS. He is very open minded to new ideas and is smart enough not to spend money on FOMO contracts.
He may need some new...new ideas if his current plan is one-year runs at Corey Kluber or bargain FA gambles on injured guys like Story that cost you a year+ of value.
I actually find Giolito very intriguing, assuming the cost bakes in his poor performance.
Check out the statcast progression on this guy:
and then this:
It doesn't really represent your typical "decline" but rather a cliff over the 2021 offseason. He's lost some fastball velocity (about 1 mph over the last 5 seasons) but he was never an elite fastball velocity guy. The value in the pitch was in it's movement. The run on the pitch is gone, though. He's not lost any significant velocity on his breaking pitches and he still gets elite extension. For those reasons, I don't believe he has declined because of a broken arm. If it was, you'd see a more uniform decline in velocity, but his stuff is obviously way diminished. All of this happened in the season he turned 28, not 32. So what happened? I have no idea tbh. But I think Breslow, Willard and Bailey do. Or at least if they are pursuing him, they believe they have the answer. I'm inclined to believe them given the gap between my pitching knowledge and theirs. He seems like a prime candidate for a stuff enhancement based on data.
I could see the consternation if this were the only move they make to bolster their pitching before spring training, but in a vacuum, I'm pretty intrigued by the opportunity. There's a sizable risk that he can't be fixed but if he can, he would represent a pretty large step forward for the pitching staff. Giolito turns 30 in July and from what I understand, has been through some major personal issues in the past 18 months that could have led to a lack of focus and/or lack of preparation. Maybe they can solve it. If they think they can, I'd be interested in him at a discount. I just don't want him to be the only thing they do.
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I've no doubt that if Tampa Bay signed Giolito, he'd quickly become a guy posting an era around 3.00 with good peripherals.
There is speculation that Giolito was impacted by the crackdown on sticky substances. The data seems to support this as not only did his fastball lose an MPH from 2021 to 2022 but it also lost about 200 RPMs of spin. This caused his fastball to gain about 2 inches of vertical drop (less vertical drop is better as it gives the batter the “rising” effect).
Interesting. Where are you finding spin rate stats and is there any explanation for Giolitos good run in June last year?
Spin rates are tracked by statcast.
I don't know your source here, but how do they account for him maintaining spin rate throughout 2021? The crackdown happened June 1st that year (remember how Garrett Richard went from stud to '23 Kluber overnight?) but Giolito's spin rates held for the full year.
Not quite how I see it. What’s clear to me is that John Henry has become a value-investor. He has a large portfolio to manage and protect, and is risk-averse with this part of it. This to the detriment of the Red Sox. A team’s ownership needs to have at least a bit of gunslinger in todays game to succeed.
If they whiff this winter, that “full throttle” clip will be played ad nauseum all season.
I actually heard the “full throttle” clip in it’s entirety this morning, and I took it as meaning that the new GM needed to quickly get to work to build the 2024 team. To me it didn’t sound like he meant it as they planned on throwing a bunch of money around. He probably should have used the phrase “hit the ground running” instead.
Agents use the media to help their negotiating positions, and saying this to Cotillo, knowing how anxious the Sox fanbase is right now, could increase pressure on the team to give in to their demands. So I'm not in a rush to assume that agents are just earnestly helping Cotillo do his reporting. As usual, we aren't being told anything definitive and will have to see what happens. Only a few teams have made major signings at this point. The rest of them are waiting too.
Honestly I think Snell has the market locked up. No one wants to overpay him.
Nah, I think it's what someone mentioned a day or so ago. Most, if not all of the prime free agents remaining are Boras clients ... and Boras has never felt pressure to move quickly toward securing contracts
Ed has 300 players in his tracker. I don't think that means he expects all 300 to sign by the end of the winter. I think the telling stat he provides is that only a third of his top 50 free agents have signed. I made a post the other day in which I compared the MLB.com top 20 lists from this year and last year. Last year 19 of 20 had signed by New Years (Correa being the only one unsigned, and he went on 1/11). This year, it's only 8 of the top 20 who are signed to date.
Bottom line is this off-season is unfolding unusually slow.
Even a top 50 list gets dodgy in the bottom part, by my quick estimation there are maybe 35 FAs left that project to have any real impact.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=0
Sure. That's still a lot on the board for this point in the off-season. An unusual amount, even.
The combination of waiting out a Unicorn in Ohtani and the largest contract ever, followed by the Yamamoto sweepstakes for the largest pitching contract ever, those dominoes alone took until almost Christmas to fall and everyone was waiting for them to set the markets. Combine that with Boras and his notoriously deliberate approach holding some of the best remaining FA's and this could be a long next 6 weeks guys and girls....
can a young outfielder, a pitcher on the 40 man and a couple prospects land a decent starter?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-exploring-trades-involving-outfielders.html
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-exploring-trades-involving-outfielders.html
A starter with more upside than Bello I would hope. I guess it depends on the prospects.
Totally dependent on the “prospects.”
If one of then is Anthony, Teel or Mayer, it can probably get you a Bello type or a “Luis Castillo” type (ie young pitcher with upside and lots of team control / 2 yrs of a top half of the rotation piece).
If you are talking literally any combination of prospects that are not those three, you’re probably looking at someone good with one year of control (Duran, Yorke and Perales miiiiiiight get Bieber or similar), or someone not all that good but established (Blackburn) or another Houck (Cabrera).
Guys like Yorke, Bleis, Rafaela, Abreu, Cespedes, whatever added to Duran aren’t getting much in trade return, short of a rental.
At what point do the teams of ‘25-‘26 and onward look way too left-handed? Probably not how it will look, but the distinct possibility exists that the lineup would look something like
DH Yoshida (L)
CF R. Anthony (L)
3B R. Devers (L)
1B T. Casas (L)
C R. Teel (L)
SS M. Mayer (L)
LF J. Duran (L)
2B T. Story (R!)
RF C Rafaela (R!)
That’s uhhhh, susceptible to good lhp’s. If the goal is for the Big 3 prospects to be foundational to the next great Sox team, and Devers and Casas are Mai stays as well, doesn’t that mean there’s no lineup space for any other lefties including Yoshida?
DH Yoshida (L)
CF R. Anthony (L)
3B R. Devers (L)
1B T. Casas (L)
C R. Teel (L)
SS M. Mayer (L)
LF J. Duran (L)
2B T. Story (R!)
RF C Rafaela (R!)
That’s uhhhh, susceptible to good lhp’s. If the goal is for the Big 3 prospects to be foundational to the next great Sox team, and Devers and Casas are Mai stays as well, doesn’t that mean there’s no lineup space for any other lefties including Yoshida?
Of the three, I like the idea of moving Mayer. There is a shit ton of projection to this and nothing more, but keeping Teel at a premium position makes a ton of sense, even better if he develops a good report with some of the younger pitching prospects. If Anthony is as hoped, perhaps he replaces O'Neill in '25. If Mayer is moved, we still have Story at SS and perhaps Yorke can man 2nd in '25 unless a longer range solution is found this season.
I'm not sure it's a significant concern. We tend to project out lineups 2-3 years in the future with all the prospects coming to fruition and rarely has that ever actually become the case. Not all of those guys are going to reach the level of full time MLB starter and at least one of them will be traded by 2025-2026. Feels more like a "cross that bridge when we come to it" scenario. Though if all of those guys stay in the organization and reach their peak potential, the organization should be in pretty good shape even if it leans a bit too left-handed.
Which teams make the most sense for Duran right now? If the Teoscar shoe drops like the Giolito one did, it’s almost certain we’re trading an outfielder.
It could certainly be Abreu or Rafaela, but Duran makes the most sense (to me), as he’s got the most value and would likely to be supplanted in CF by Rafaela or Anthony soon.
The Marlins and White Sox have really bad left field situations (Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz is a DH). The Guardians may want to move on from Myles Straw in center. The Cubs and Mariners have both lost outfielders to free agency.
It could certainly be Abreu or Rafaela, but Duran makes the most sense (to me), as he’s got the most value and would likely to be supplanted in CF by Rafaela or Anthony soon.
The Marlins and White Sox have really bad left field situations (Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz is a DH). The Guardians may want to move on from Myles Straw in center. The Cubs and Mariners have both lost outfielders to free agency.
I doubt Duran is here at that point. Replace him with a righty outfielder and find a RH hitting backup for Teel to start against lefties. Add in a righty bench bat that play 3b and bump Devers to DH some nights vs lefties, or can DH for Yoshida.
Padres? They don’t seem to have much outside of Tatis in the OF and he’s more of a RF. Obviously, Kim would be my prize in such a deal. Sox could offer Houck, Duran, and a lower prospect, which gives us the 2B we need and cheap starters at 2 positions, which they would need.
Based on what? If you’re SD, would you trade Kim for anything less? Sometimes overpays are necessary and are fine.
I think Teel's RHH compliment is already in-house: Connor Wong. He's under team control through 2028.
Insanely gigantic overpay for Kim, who is a free agent at the end of the year. Houck alone should get it done though I don't know that I'd do that if I'm the Red Sox.
I’m aware of Kim’s FA status but we’re talking about a 6 WAR player at a position of need. I think some people get too caught up on the spreadsheet value game here. I’m also not very high on Duran, which colors my analysis. Zero chance in my mind that SD trades Kim for Houck, a guy who still hasn’t established himself as being more than a bottom of the rotation guy and may never do so.
Instead of Houck, is there a deal to be made by packaging Duran with Martin or Jansen, perhaps? I think it would be preferable to move one of the relievers who will be gone in a year as opposed to a youngish pitcher who may have some more upside and is controlled for a bit. Pay down part of their contract if needed.
Ha, well, as soon as I write this Sale is gone so Kim ain’t on the money now and Houck is probably staying as well.
The issue there would be that you're likely to have to send $$$ along with one of those deals and if we'e are still looking at adding a FA or two it might be counter productive as well as the fact that if you're building to complete this year, you now have to rebuild the back end of your pen.
Have heard the Red Sox have been tired of Chris Sale's act for a long time. Several of the injuries he suffered were the result of being..."careless" shall we say and there was only one member of the Boston media who reported on it and was ridiculed when he did (based on his reputation i guess). Someone told me he was basically told to accept the deal or move to the pen after Chaim tried to trade him last year and the year prior- several times.
The broken wrist certainly screams "careless." Wonder which other injuries they thought were the result of carelessness. The broken ribs? The stress reaction in his shoulder? Certainly not the broken pinky?
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