Offseason rumors

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chawson

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Japanese ballparks are smaller than MLB ballparks across the board, so his particular home park isn't much of a factor in his relative home run totals.
Yes, but haven’t most of them been renovated larger? I’m no expert here and one of our Japan-based posters should correct me, but poking around on this, Imanaga’s home park appears to have the smallest fair territory among current stadiums by roughly 2,000-10,000 sq. ft.
 

simplicio

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They are small, but that one's smaller than the Kyocera dome where Orix plays, which is 328 to L/R and 400 to C.

A fairly common feature seems to be high walls, Yokohama is listed as 5m and I think that's uniform around the whole outfield.
 
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Yes, but haven’t most of them been renovated larger? I’m no expert here and one of our Japan-based posters should correct me, but poking around on this, Imanaga’s home park appears to have the smallest fair territory among current stadiums by roughly 2,000-10,000 sq. ft.
2,000 square feet is less than the size of a tennis court. We're not talking about some freakishly small field here compared to the other NPB ballparks. The home runs are a problem.
 

MikeM

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Well the Sox are probably 50-50 with the Giants for Imanaga. He might prefer SF but we have the Yoshida connection at least. Money-wise we can compete with them, and we just pilfered their pitching coach.

If we lose out there, then the musical chairs are down to two spots and the Sox plus two NY teams. I don't love our odds in either of those battles, with Monty set to get the biggest bag (Mets move) and Snell already drawing publicly conveyed "interest" from the Yanks. If the Mets don't want Snell and the Yankees reunite with Monty, then maybe Mets pass and we get either Snell or Imanaga. Or the Mets get Monty, the Yankees pass on Snell because they've had it with QOs, and we still get one of the two left.

Can this process ever end?
If the rumors of the Sox being in on Imanaga are true I like our chances there too.

As mentioned in the 2024 pitching thread I still think there is zero reality chance of that happening for us on any of Montgomery/Snell/Imanaga without paying the "nobody is going to pick you in a competitive offer field otherwise" tax to push it over. Which in turn is probably is going to make the per/year money and back end length nothing anybody here is going to get overly excited about seeing. But of the 3 I'm guessing I'll be most ok overall with what that ends up looking like on Imanaga as opposed to what it will ultimately take for us to trump the field enough on the other 2.

Cost of doing business in free agency for us until we start winning again. Which unfortunately for us has to come before the FA cart with better opportunity values on higher end guys.
 

cantor44

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If the rumors of the Sox being in on Imanaga are true I like our chances there too.

As mentioned in the 2024 pitching thread I still think there is zero reality chance of that happening for us on any of Montgomery/Snell/Imanaga without paying the "nobody is going to pick you in a competitive offer field otherwise" tax to push it over. Which in turn is probably is going to make the per/year money and back end length nothing anybody here is going to get overly excited about seeing. But of the 3 I'm guessing I'll be most ok overall with what that ends up looking like on Imanaga as opposed to what it will ultimately take for us to trump the field enough on the other 2.

Cost of doing business in free agency for us until we start winning again. Which unfortunately for us has to come before the FA cart with better opportunity values on higher end guys.
Sometimes the right top free agent signing proceeds the winning. See: Seager and the Rangers. Not saying that's the way to do it, just that there are many angles in back to winning. I suspect if the Sox sign a high profile guy (say, Snell), it might make them a more attractive destination for other top players.

Meanwhile, I always thought it was "keep the prospect trade chip powder dry" until you are winning, not the FA powder. You let go of some top prospect player assets when you gotta get over the hump.

Yeah, a crazy long contract for a 31-year-old pitcher would be concerning - I get it. I also think if they get Snell, it could have an overall positive effect on building a winning culture and sorta the start of "reestablishing" the Red Sox.
 

TomRicardo

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Regarding that home run rate, Imanaga’s home turf at Yokohama Stadium is quite small! This may have been mentioned in passing, but it’s the first I’ve seen it.

View attachment 76098

All five of those distances are shorter than every corresponding park in MLB, with the exception of a foot or two for the right-field poles in Boston and San Francisco.

Put into context, the largest MLB park by fair territory is 121,486 sq. ft. (Colorado, followed closely by Kansas City). The smallest is 106,923 (Houston). Fenway is 107,745. Yokohama Stadium, where Imagana pitched, has 101,021 sq. ft. of fair territory, or 6.2% less than Fenway.

I don’t know if there are any environmental factors that would mitigate the offense, but that’s a very small park!
Japanese stadiums are way closer to uniform than MLB stadiums. The park factors are way smaller.
 

moondog80

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I'd be surprised if they ended up with Soler. No defensive value at all. Maybe if they trade Yoshida.
 

Rovin Romine

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I'd be surprised if they ended up with Soler. No defensive value at all. Maybe if they trade Yoshida.
Then you're down Yoshida's bat and locked in contract (not saying that's a good or a bad thing).

If you look at the current 40 man, getting a dedicated DH type pushes Yoshida into LF far more regularly. That puts a bit more pressure to have a CF who is a defensive +, and we only have one of those in Rafaela. Which gives you a choice between more neutral CFs or trying to crowd Duran/Abreu/O'Neill into RF. (And then there's Refsnyder.)

So while a dedicated DH signing is possible, it also means some other moves would have to be made.

If they are interested in Soler-type players, why not just re-sign Turner.
Because he's old. (Frankly.)

But a younger RHH Turner type who would be a dedicated DH and could sub at 1B and 3B would be a good fit on the current roster.
 

E5 Yaz

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It’s been a quiet week. Just waiting for the “Red Sox have acquired….” Tweet. Gotta be a trade right??? Feels like it’s coming
 

RS2004foreever

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Probably happens when they have Teoscar secured. Can’t trade an OF without him on board.
It would be nice to see Teoscar signed and then a trade for Dylan Cease.

Fangraphs projectrf War of free agents or those in play by trade.
Cease 3.7
Snell 3.3
Montgomery 3.2
Stroman 2.6
Imanaga 2.6
Paxton 2.3
 

chrisfont9

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Sometimes the right top free agent signing proceeds the winning. See: Seager and the Rangers. Not saying that's the way to do it, just that there are many angles in back to winning. I suspect if the Sox sign a high profile guy (say, Snell), it might make them a more attractive destination for other top players.

Meanwhile, I always thought it was "keep the prospect trade chip powder dry" until you are winning, not the FA powder. You let go of some top prospect player assets when you gotta get over the hump.

Yeah, a crazy long contract for a 31-year-old pitcher would be concerning - I get it. I also think if they get Snell, it could have an overall positive effect on building a winning culture and sorta the start of "reestablishing" the Red Sox.
One thing about the Rangers to remember is that they were flirting with missing the playoffs in September until they got hot, and their overall quality really kicked in down the stretch. Some of that was Eovaldi coming back. Can't remember what else. But my point is, the Sox/Rangers delta isn't that large. We aren't at the bottom of the mountain looking up at them. I think your point about the right free agent is true in two senses: not only for the vibes and for others to sign up and for the existing guys to believe, but for the trickle down lowering of the actual in-game pressure to perform. This is why I've been more interested in the innings-eaters than maybe some folks.
 

chrisfont9

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It’s been a quiet week. Just waiting for the “Red Sox have acquired….” Tweet. Gotta be a trade right??? Feels like it’s coming
Well the Cease rumors got another rehashing yesterday, so...

I think the buyers are (smartly) waiting out both the free agent and trade markets. It's sort of a seller's market but not to the extent those teams or agents would have wanted everyone to believe.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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One thing about the Rangers to remember is that they were flirting with missing the playoffs in September until they got hot, and their overall quality really kicked in down the stretch. Some of that was Eovaldi coming back. Can't remember what else. But my point is, the Sox/Rangers delta isn't that large. We aren't at the bottom of the mountain looking up at them. I think your point about the right free agent is true in two senses: not only for the vibes and for others to sign up and for the existing guys to believe, but for the trickle down lowering of the actual in-game pressure to perform. This is why I've been more interested in the innings-eaters than maybe some folks.
Couldn't agree more. Which is why (for the current iteration of the Red Sox) you're in a better spot with Grissom and Giolioto for "$7m" than Chris Sale. (And it's why the Braves are better with Chris Sale, even if he only starts 15 games for them, than Vaughn Grissom).

The Sox still really need a top half of the rotation starter, but they need that guy to be a good bet to go 150+ IP and be able to do as such for the next 3 to 4 seasons while Breslow works on acquiring more "Dickie Fitts" type pieces to build up the starting pitching in the farm system. Or, put another way, they're better served getting 2.5 WAR from a starting pitcher over 30 games and 165ip and allowing other guys to be in the bullpen as opposed to getting 2.5 WAR from Sale for 15 games and then needing to stretch other guys to roles they're not suited for over those next 15 games.
 

Max Power

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I think many of us are still looking for another RH OF with some pop, but the defensive trade off with the guys being discussed is concerning. That said. Turner does address the occasional RH bat at both IF corners.
This is not an inspiring list of righthanded outfielders across MLB.

76134
 

loneredseat

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It would be nice to see Teoscar signed and then a trade for Dylan Cease.

Fangraphs projectrf War of free agents or those in play by trade.
Cease 3.7
Snell 3.3
Montgomery 3.2
Stroman 2.6
Imanaga 2.6
Paxton 2.3
Agreed! And then sign one of the others on the list and I think we can feel pretty freaking good about this off season.
But a question (from someone who does not know a ton about this stuff):
What is it about Dylan Cease that has him projecting above Snell and Montgomery?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Agreed! And then sign one of the others on the list and I think we can feel pretty freaking good about this off season.
But a question (from someone who does not know a ton about this stuff):
What is it about Dylan Cease that has him projecting above Snell and Montgomery?
He's not. I think RS2004forever either misread or mistyped Cease's projected WAR.

Fangraphs (Steamer) projections here have the following:

Snell 3.3
Montgomery 3.2
Cease 2.7
Stroman 2.6
Imanaga 2.6
Paxton 2.3
 

picniclightning

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I like Cease but with only 2 years of control, I would not want the Red Sox to give up a major piece - which is what it would likely take. And his agent is Boras so they are unlikely to extend him.

I'd prefer the others on this list since they are free agents.

It would be nice to see Teoscar signed and then a trade for Dylan Cease.

Fangraphs projectrf War of free agents or those in play by trade.
Cease 3.7
Snell 3.3
Montgomery 3.2
Stroman 2.6
Imanaga 2.6
Paxton 2.3
 

Chainsaw318

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I have no idea how accurate their projections are, but I'll say this "Hiroki Kuroda" on this team would be absolutely freaking huge. 30 starts a year of 115 ERA+ pitching good for about 3.1 bWAR per year.

Iwakuma would be "fine" but Kuroda was a "plug him in at SP2 and forget about it" stud for 7 years. Consistently. That guy would be worth 6/$150m. ("Iwakuma" would probably be worth around 5/$95m, agreed, but is more like the SP3 type I picture from Imanaga.)
I always really respected how Kuroda was so so consistently good and sometime excellent. That kind of steady produc to on would very much raise the floor of the rotation.

I thought his career was longer than 7 years in MLB. That comparison got me excited. I remain more interested in Imanaga than Montgomery, and far more than Snell.
 

RS2004foreever

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I like Cease but with only 2 years of control, I would not want the Red Sox to give up a major piece - which is what it would likely take. And his agent is Boras so they are unlikely to extend him.

I'd prefer the others on this list since they are free agents.
Cease was 3.7 last year. My apologies.
 

The_Dali

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Couldn't agree more. Which is why (for the current iteration of the Red Sox) you're in a better spot with Grissom and Giolioto for "$7m" than Chris Sale. (And it's why the Braves are better with Chris Sale, even if he only starts 15 games for them, than Vaughn Grissom).

See this thinking seems off to me... I THINK you are saying that the Red Sox are better off with Grisson amd Giolito for only "$7m" more than Chris Sale. But that isn't true. We are paying the entire Sale contract for 2024 so it is Giolito $$, Sale $$ and Grissom $$ - but no Chris Sale.

Like, I love the idea of buying prospects, but then we seem to forget that the prospects that are purchased are now expensive.

Like, in 2024 Grissom costs $17m

Am I thinking about that incorrectly? ty!
 

nvalvo

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Japanese ballparks are smaller than MLB ballparks across the board, so his particular home park isn't much of a factor in his relative home run totals.
This is not true, I don’t think. Many of them are short down the line, but the power alleys and CFs are generally quite deep. Not Comerica gigantic, but deep. A lot of the parks have symmetrical power alleys comparably deep to Fenway’s RF.
 

The_Dali

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if i remember correctly Grissom has 3 years until arbitration... so it's more like 17m (plus whatever the base salary is) divide by 3 years. So probably more like 6-7m per season.

Then we still control him through the arbitration years.
Agree, but our outlay of $$ isn't amortized over 3 years, it is paid all this year.

I'm talking actual cash, not CBT values. Perhaps actual cash doesn't matter as much. But, yeah, I see what you are saying... although I do think people lose sight of the expenses of the prospect when purchased and only think about their years of control and not that we just spent XX dollars on a guy who might never play.
 

The_Dali

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Interesting that neither NY team is there (assuming this is a true report). Could be an indication that Yankees are focusing on Snell/Montgomery.
It's so hard to see a path of competitiveness for the Angels without trading Trout. They gutted their farm last year and with the number of teams improving (on paper) in the AL I find it hard to believe they will be relevant.
 

GPO Man

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Interesting that neither NY team is there (assuming this is a true report). Could be an indication that Yankees are focusing on Snell/Montgomery.
Which should be good for the Sox in terms of a potential bidding war. I would love to get him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Which should be good for the Sox in terms of a potential bidding war. I would love to get him.
Yeah, things would crystallize a lot more if they bring him in. Would open up trade options with Houck and others and still keep FA possible.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I like Cease but with only 2 years of control, I would not want the Red Sox to give up a major piece - which is what it would likely take. And his agent is Boras so they are unlikely to extend him.

I'd prefer the others on this list since they are free agents.
Agree on not giving up a "major" piece for Cease - i.e., not Meyer, Anthony or Teel. Here's what I posted in the other thread (Moves I'd make):

I'm starting from the assumption that any team trading us a top SP will probably want a younger potential SP back in the deal. If that's the case, I think Houck is the most likely candidate, in terms of (a) the value he holds; and (b) the fact that Breslow wants to add to the current rotation, so he doesn't want to give up Crawford (who I think is ahead of Houck in the rotation pecking order) and that Bello is definitely off the table.

For Cease, I think it would take Houck plus a couple of other significant pieces (maybe two or three from among Yorke, Valdez, Abreu, Cespedes, etc.). But I wouldn't put in Meyer or Anthony for just two years of Cease, and I'd try to avoid including Bleis, whose value is probably depressed coming off injury but who is still very young with a high ceiling.

Lazardo would come with an extra year of control, so will be more expensive. We might well have to give up Meyer or Anthony in addition to Houck, although its possible that we could do a package with Houck, Duran and Yorke, depending on how Miami views them.

Keller, like Cease, comes with two years of control, and would not cost as much as either of the other two. He could probably be had for Houck plus Yorke (or some other similar pieces).
 

jon abbey

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I don't see how Cease ends up anywhere but BAL, they have way too many prospects to use and a major need for SPs. I think any other noise around him is just trying to get BAL to include better prospects.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I don't see how Cease ends up anywhere but BAL, they have way too many prospects to use and a major need for SPs. I think any other noise around him is just trying to get BAL to include better prospects.
Baltimore certainly has more to offer, although that doesn't necessarily mean they will. Or they could be focusing on someone else, like Lazardo.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Baltimore certainly has more to offer, although that doesn't necessarily mean they will. Or they could be focusing on someone else, like Lazardo.
Thing is, the Orioles might have the prospect capital, not to mention the salary flexibility (if extensions are in consideration), to add both pitchers. All depends on how hard they want to go over the next 2-3 years versus keeping the pipeline primed for further down the road.
 

GPO Man

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Agree on not giving up a "major" piece for Cease - i.e., not Meyer, Anthony or Teel. Here's what I posted in the other thread (Moves I'd make):

I'm starting from the assumption that any team trading us a top SP will probably want a younger potential SP back in the deal. If that's the case, I think Houck is the most likely candidate, in terms of (a) the value he holds; and (b) the fact that Breslow wants to add to the current rotation, so he doesn't want to give up Crawford (who I think is ahead of Houck in the rotation pecking order) and that Bello is definitely off the table.

For Cease, I think it would take Houck plus a couple of other significant pieces (maybe two or three from among Yorke, Valdez, Abreu, Cespedes, etc.). But I wouldn't put in Meyer or Anthony for just two years of Cease, and I'd try to avoid including Bleis, whose value is probably depressed coming off injury but who is still very young with a high ceiling.

Lazardo would come with an extra year of control, so will be more expensive. We might well have to give up Meyer or Anthony in addition to Houck, although its possible that we could do a package with Houck, Duran and Yorke, depending on how Miami views them.

Keller, like Cease, comes with two years of control, and would not cost as much as either of the other two. He could probably be had for Houck plus Yorke (or some other similar pieces).
Or a trade could preclude a potential Cease deal (ie Jansen) and we flip that prospect in a package. If we did trade Jansen, they might have Houck in mind for closing. If we did acquire Cease, I sure hope as hell that we extend him.
 

soxhop411

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The Cubs also need a starting pitcher and two established relievers, as pitching coach Tommy Hottovy told 670 The Score, the team’s flagship radio station, confirming what became obvious once Marcus Stroman opted out of his contract and the bullpen faltered at the end of last season. Barring a last-minute reversal, a league source said Chicago is not seen as a likely landing spot for Shota Imanaga, the Japanese pitcher who will likely receive a contract worth at least $100 million, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
https://theathletic.com/5180156/2024/01/05/cody-bellinger-shota-imanaga-cubs/?access_token=223370&redirected=1
 

SuperManny

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Rosenthal: What I’m hearing about the trade market for Dylan Cease
The White Sox are weighing offers for Cease, and the Yankees and Orioles are among those to express “sincere” interest, according to major-league sources briefed on the discussions. Other teams also are serious, however. While the exact list of suitors is not known, the Dodgers, Cardinals and Red Sox are among the teams possibly in the mix.
The Red Sox, like the Dodgers, possess a top-five system, and are seeking a top-of-the-rotation starter. The Braves and Reds, two early suitors for Cease, no longer appear in the mix.
Cease, who recently turned 28, is attractive not just because of his relative youth, but also because he is under club control for two more seasons. The American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022, he was less effective last season, his ERA doubling from 2.20 to 4.58. But his talent remains tantalizing.

Even as his ERA ballooned, Cease led the majors in “swords,” a metric created in 2017 by Rob Friedman (better known as “Pitching Ninja”) and recently formalized by MLB.com. Swords essentially are bad swings that result in strikes. Cease produced 44 of his 55 with his slider, baseball’s most valuable pitch in 2022, according to MLB.com.
 
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