Offseason rumors

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SouthernBoSox

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I have made a deliberate decision to wait until the end of January to really look at the summary of moves. To this point, Breslow has done a very nice job setting things up. Lots of flexibility, lots of incoming talent, but at this point, the sum of the parts appears no better than 2023.

If there is no follow through, payroll is pegged in the low 200mm’s. It will be about at disappointing of an off-season as I can remember.
 

CR67dream

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These are excellent questions.
As far as Gray and ERod go, as someone or someones noted above, there has been reporting that Gray always wanted St. Louis, and that there may be a lingering personality conflict between ERod and Cora. Not definitive for sure, but would certainly make sense. No need to go after two guys who don't want to be here, one of which being a guy who reportedly has issues with the manager.

Personally, at this point I'm glad they didn't go after either.
 

Rovin Romine

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Did they pass on those cheaper options because they were all in on Yamamoto? And if they really were in on Yamamoto, did they have any idea what they were up against?
While your other questions have already been addressed (if not answered), this might be a good time to note that Yamamoto's contract is the largest ever for a pitcher:

12/325, plus a $50M signing bonus, plus a $50M posting fee.​
No deferrals, two opt-outs after the 2029 and 2031 seasons.​
Perks include: personal trainer; physical therapist, interpreter; 4 business class RT airline tickets ($8,500 max per RT) per year; 1 premium economy RT airline ticket to LA for use by family per year; best efforts to make Japanese food available in the park.​

https://dodgersnation.com/new-details-emerge-in-yoshinobu-yamamotos-dodgers-contract/2024/01/05/
 

chawson

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Sonny Gray was also not really an option for us, as has been noted. He “desperately wanted” to be in St. Louis.

When Sonny Gray was going through what he described as “the anxiety and stress” of a free agent courting process he nonetheless claimed to have enjoyed thoroughly, the right-hander kept coming back to the same idea that he had held onto closely and quietly for more than a year’s time.

Gray’s idea was that he desperately wanted to be a member of the Cardinals -- an organization possessing a storied history of winning despite last season’s 71-91 mark and one that would bring him closer to his middle Tennessee home in the offseason. Gray, who turned 34 on Nov. 7, held onto that thought even when the Cardinals didn’t initially contact him and agent Bo McKinnis.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The sentence takes some time to parse, but I believe what's being said is that perhaps Stroman's past views on Boston could change because the Red Sox acquired Grissom
Mostly correct. I’m specifically NOT trying to say that one move will change a player’s perception. I’m saying it at least becomes more plausible for this one player to choose Boston when he is not the only black player on the roster AND when the team has just dealt an all-star caliber player specifically to acquire one of the best young black “prospects” in the game.


I like Stroman too but I’m not sure the fit has improved. Yes we did address second base but it seems like, based on the reporting, Vaughn struggles on defense. Stroman is a pretty heavy ground ball guy (3rd* in baseball in GB% for SP over 100 IP) so giving him 3 infielders that grade out between below average and poor doesn’t position him for success.

*Bello was 4th and Houck was 8th
Yeah, that’s fair of course. However, with the exception of the translated interview of the manager from the Puerto Rican league, pretty much everywhere has talked about Grissom not being able to play SS. Across the board, the reports of scouts (at least those posted here) have said he’d be fine at 2b.

Ron Washington - who I think personally has the most credibility and expertise (of anyone listed) has said he’s going to be a good 2b. So when I look at the preponderance of evidence, I think they’ve acquired a fit at 2b (but not SS, which is fine because of Story).

Grissom at SS would be a major liability; Grissom at 2b should be at least average (and - if Ron Washington is to be believed, above average) at minimum. A good defensive SS (Story) an average to above average 2b (Grissom) and a 1b that started the year as a massive liability but grew into ”slightly below average” in Casas is a massive improvement from where the team was for the first half of 2023 and a good bit better than it was two weeks ago.

Is it enough to have Stroman choose Boston - or make it a good fit defensively - I have literally no idea. However, I would not dismiss it as an “awful fit” the way I would have two weeks ago.
 

sezwho

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I agree with you that reporters need clicks, that's the way the business is--the more clicks and the more engagement you get, the more eyeballs are on the screen, the more ads people (theoretically) see which makes the organization more money. This snowballs into what you're talking about in that the more money a reporter makes for an organization the faster his/her star will rise. But at the same time, I don't see Cotillo or McAdam or Abraham being reckless in this manner ala Jason Whitlock (to pick an extreme example). I think that for the most part, these guys do--and have done--the legwork.



I think that I spoke a bit about this while answering CR67, but I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "pivot[ing] to reporting on the (demonstrable) feelings of the fan base". Are you saying that the Sox writers are only writing to what the fans want to read? Because I think that this is (mostly) unfair and inaccurate. I think that these writers are reporting what they hear and what they're being told from reliable sources. I'm more familiar with Abraham and McAdam so I can only speak to them, but they've been around for a long time in the media (each 25-30 years) you don't stay employed on a beat like the Red Sox for that long without being a good reporter with good sources.

Also there is a level of discontent in the fan base that I think that you've been ignoring, which is okay for you to do. But for McAdam or Cotillo or Abraham to ignore it, they wouldn't be doing their jobs. Especially if there are people in the industry who are validating that discontent or at least raising questions of, "FSG ownership has been acting one way for 15+ years, why are they acting like this?" Especially since FSG is not talking--except for Tom Warner who loudly proclaimed, "We're going full throtle" this offseason.

I don't think that anyone expects FSG to give us a detailed roadmap of what they plan on doing for the next five years, but it would be nice for John Henry to explain (even in generalities) the team's (and FSG's) philosophies. That would clear up a lot of specualtion.



Is the bolded true? The Sox have acquired a second baseman, a starting pitcher and a fourth outfielder. The Rays have made more moves. The Dodgers have made more moves. With the Soto deal, the Yankess made a sexier move. The Cards and Royals have improved their teams. The M's have done some stuff. And that's off the top of my head--I may be missing some. Like I said, the Sox have done some stuff but as of January 6, 2024, one could argue that their pitching staff is slightly better or worse, their second base situation has improved and their outfield is overstuffed. They appear to be poised to make more moves, but until they do the beat writers aren't in the business of predicting, they have to report.

Right now the Sox remind me of the school day before summer break, you know that something cool is going to happen; you're just waiting for the bell to ring. No one is learning anything, tests are done and you're just playing paper football with your pals anticipating summer. There's nothing to talk about except what you're going to do in July and August. And that gets boring after an hour. I can't imagine how bored the beat writers are writing about Hernandez for three weeks.



I agree with you about Snell and Montgomery, I sure hope the Sox don't blow the bank on them. But free agency is only one avenue, right? They can make a trade for a Burnes and sign him to long-term extension. They can get Lazurdo, sign him to an extension. Cease, same deal. It doesn't seem like the Sox are seriously interested in doing any of this--they could, no one saw the Sale trade--but as of right now, all signs point to them not being involved. You combine that with Yamamato and it's disapoinitng to a lot of fans because while the Sox have the Big Bat Three, their pitching cabinent is bare. Watching the four or five guys after Bello this year seems so damn depressing.

You don't have to win the winter, per se, but it would be nice to have some hope--again, I have a calendar I know what day it is, but as of right now, it sucks. And it's even worse when you consider Tom Warner finally doing a good job of getting the fan base hyped up.



I think that this is really, really unfair. They have been probing how Breslow is planning to make the team better using available clues. They're absolutely doing that. You just can't write the same "Chris Farley Show" column day after day after day. Your positivity is admirable, it really is, but the reality is that as of today, the Sox are really not markedly better than they were on October 1. I don't think that they're worse, but we were promised that they'd be a lot better in 2024. Cotillo, Abraham, McAdam know that it takes time to put a team together but in a business where news is news, the Sox have been mostly spinning their wheels. I know that you don't want to hear that, but the beat writer's job is not to make you (not you specifically) feel good*. It's to find the news, report it and then disect what it means.

* There is no such thing as unbiased news/writing. There never was and unless AI can do it, there never will be. Every single story since the beginning of time has had a slant, that's just the way humans are. I know that you didn't argue this, but I have a strong feeling that someone (probably not you) will.
This is another ‘should be pinned’. Particularly here, where we are genuinely trying to collectively parse shite from Shinola, that should extend individually to media as well.

Painting all media as click baity trolls is easy (and I’m not saying this was your intention @chawson, your posts are as thoughtful as any I read here) easier still when the message is unfavorable and the outcome is still in the balance.

Bringing healthy skepticism to any reporting is reasonable, I generally favor this in many walks. However, simply because the measuring stick is essentially eyeballs, doesn’t inherently make all reporting corrupt.
 

YTF

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If Montgomery and Snell are out of the Sox price range, you have to wonder why they weren't in on Gray, who got $75 million, and old friend E-Rod, who got $80 million. Did they pass on those cheaper options because they were all in on Yamamoto? And if they really were in on Yamamoto, did they have any idea what they were up against?
These are excellent questions.
Another thing worthy of consideration here is the time line in which these signings happened. Both Gray and Rodriguez signed before the Otahni deal paved the way for the Dodgers to match all offers to Yamamoto. If the plan was to sign Yamamoto and then add another arm via trade, why would they sign anyone that they saw as a lesser target first?
 

Quatchie

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The team needs a significant injection of talent to avoid another last place finish. Hopefully they make moves to accomplish that. I think it is fair to say this winter isn't over, but thus far the organization has not improved the on field major league team in ways that will make them competitive. It's a bottom five AL roster.
 

HfxBob

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Another thing worthy of consideration here is the time line in which these signings happened. Both Gray and Rodriguez signed before the Otahni deal paved the way for the Dodgers to match all offers to Yamamoto. If the plan was to sign Yamamoto and then add another arm via trade, why would they sign anyone that they saw as a lesser target first?
I would submit that if the Sox plan for this offseason revolved around signing Yamamoto, it was a highly dubious plan, considering that the Mets were already well known to be willing to go to the moon and back to sign him. Cohen offered 325, of course, and was very disappointed he didn't get a chance to keep bidding.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The team needs a significant injection of talent to avoid another last place finish. Hopefully they make moves to accomplish that. I think it is fair to say this winter isn't over, but thus far the organization has not improved the on field major league team in ways that will make them competitive. It's a bottom five AL roster.
So you think they've gotten worse with the changes made so far? Because they weren't a bottom 5 AL team in 2023.
 

YTF

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I would submit that if the Sox plan for this offseason revolved around signing Yamamoto, it was a highly dubious plan, considering that the Mets were already well known to be willing to go to the moon and back to sign him. Cohen offered 325, of course, and was very disappointed he didn't get a chance to keep bidding.
If it was the only plan, sure. And if plan B was to move onto Montgomery or Snell, the question concerning lesser targets remains.
 

HfxBob

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If it was the only plan, sure. And if plan B was to move onto Montgomery or Snell, the question concerning lesser targets remains.
Fair. I am admittedly putting a lot of stock into the recent rumors that the Sox are not seriously in on Montgomery or Snell either. And the suggestion in Alex Speier's last column that the Sox are only "lurking" on Imanaga was a real eyebrow-raiser.
 

BringBackMo

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though I expressly mentioned the 2022 and 2023 deadlines as to where the bulk of my frustration with the past half decade lies,
Ok now we’re getting somewhere. So you’re just fine with 60 percent of the past half decade of prospect acquisition, but 40 percent of it has you very frustrated.

I wonder if some of the issue may be an unrealistic expectation of the timeline and hit rate of prospect development. However you slice it and whatever else your disappointment with him, the fact is that Bloom was here for four seasons yet *prospects* he acquired from outside the organization in that time currently account for approximately one-fifth of the 26 man roster. Not bad.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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If it was the only plan, sure. And if plan B was to move onto Montgomery or Snell, the question concerning lesser targets remains.
The fact that Boras represents both Snell and Montgomery certainly complicates matters, since we know that his inclination is to keep the bidding open and to drive up the price as much as possible, which works well while there are still multiple teams in the bidding who tend to get more desperate as other options are taken off the table. And there are still a number of teams looking for starting pitching. So I wouldn't be surprised if neither guy signs until sometime in February. Knowing this, and also knowing at least what Boras is asking for for each of them now, Breslow (and other teams) are seriously exploring the trade market for better (more cost-effective alternatives), but again given the number of teams seeking SPs, the sellers are pushing the prices as high as they can.

Folks need to appreciate how difficult this is for Breslow - it's not just a matter of "pay this to sign that guy" or "trade for this guy" when there are still so many other teams trying to do the same. As it turns out, we probably didn't;t have much chance to get most of the big fish that have already come off the board, and we have made a couple of decent moves. It sucks to be hanging in limbo like this but we have to have a little patience to see how this plays out, and hopefully Breslow (unlike Bloom) can pull the trigger to make the right signings or trades.
 

YTF

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Fair. I am admittedly putting a lot of stock into the recent rumors that the Sox are not seriously in on Montgomery or Snell either. And the suggestion in Alex Speier's last column that the Sox are only "lurking" on Imanaga was a real eyebrow-raiser.
Sure I get that and that's why I say that we should consider the time line here. The Otahni deal put the Dodgers in a position to set the market with the Yamamoto deal at a price that was likely more than anyone would have expected which in turn impacts the expected cost of signing Montgomery or Snell. Some people have preconceived notions on what the Sox budget might be and go on assumptions as to whether or not certain players will fit that budget. That fact of the matter is that no one of any importance (at least as far as I am aware of) has publicly stated numbers concerning what the team may be willing to spend up to.
 

nighthob

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I like Stroman too but I’m not sure the fit has improved. Yes we did address second base but it seems like, based on the reporting, Vaughn struggles on defense.
As a shortstop. Lateral quickness and range is far less important at 2B.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Ok now we’re getting somewhere. So you’re just fine with 60 percent of the past half decade of prospect acquisition, but 40 percent of it has you very frustrated.

I wonder if some of the issue may be an unrealistic expectation of the timeline and hit rate of prospect development. However you slice it and whatever else your disappointment with him, the fact is that Bloom was here for four seasons yet *prospects* he acquired from outside the organization in that time currently account for approximately one-fifth of the 26 man roster. Not bad.
From selling MLB pieces in 2020 yes. I think he did a good job actually in the Mookie deal and I’m acquiring Pivetta. Whitlock was a clear win.

Beyond that, not so much.

I disagree with the way they’ve handled pitching in the draft for a long time. To be clear, I also understand this is a conscious decision they made, the reasons they made it, and that others in the industry have as well. I’m saying that I think in this scenario, the “herd” is wrong, and Boston is part of that herd.

Though the other thing is, I think the way 2022 and 2023 (deadlines) were handled were so incredibly poorly that it really skews the data for me. To be clear here too, I respect the opinion of people who say “well the team should not have sold, they had a 33% chance at the playoffs” or whatever the number is. It’s also why I spent so much time last season talking about how they should either a) add or if they chose not to add, then to b) sell everyone on a one year deal. I didn’t think it would work (and it didn’t) and this isn’t hindsight. I argued that pretty much all season.

They had two golden chances to target prospects for the rebuild, and “D minused“ one and failed the other. To me those were bad decisions at the time, and they predictably failed.

My counterpoint to the bolded would be are they here bc they’re good or bc every team needs to field a roster.I mean, I’d bet that Forst acquired most of Oakland,s roster (no, I haven’t looked it up) but that doesn’t make it a good thing.

I do think Breslow telegraphing to anyone that will listen that he wants to trade prospects, and the fact that he decided one of Bloom’s “best“:acquired pitching prospects wasn’t worth protecting is at least, interesting.
 

6-5 Sadler

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Yeah, that’s fair of course. However, with the exception of the translated interview of the manager from the Puerto Rican league, pretty much everywhere has talked about Grissom not being able to play SS. Across the board, the reports of scouts (at least those posted here) have said he’d be fine at 2b.
He was the below average one in my quote ;-). I agree with most that he’ll be fine at 2b over the longer term but that might not happen in 2024. Even Washington’s comments were fairly measured beyond the top line quote (mentioning inexperience, going through growing pains, needing to learn to play defense, etc.).
 

Mike473

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As I said earlier in the thread I don't have an opinion on what road ownership is taking because I'm not sure we have enough data to figure that out. Like McAdam says it could be because they don't feel like they are there yet or if this is a more permanent thing. My question would be how many more years do we give them to show whether it's door 1 or door 2?
2-3 more years unfortunately. I speculate that ownership does not feel the team is close enough to warrant major free agent acquisitions at this time. I think they have gone all in on the hope the prospects pan out and will be able to start a new run a few years from now. Until then, they hope to cut costs and ride out the storm. I think they also hope the wild card set up will allow them to appear to be at least competitive for the first part of the next couple seasons to cushion the blow. If the prospects don't pan out? Then, it will be back to square one and the rebuild continues.
 

chrisfont9

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2-3 more years unfortunately. I speculate that ownership does not feel the team is close enough to warrant major free agent acquisitions at this time. I think they have gone all in on the hope the prospects pan out and will be able to start a new run a few years from now. Until then, they hope to cut costs and ride out the storm. I think they also hope the wild card set up will allow them to appear to be at least competitive for the first part of the next couple seasons to cushion the blow. If the prospects don't pan out? Then, it will be back to square one and the rebuild continues.
This is just not consistent with them wooing Yamamoto.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I wouldn’t say far less important. You don’t need to look very far, hell, one guy Dustin Pedroia, showed us how important an excellent feeling second baseman is.
Pedroia was a very good defensive SS in college (Ian Kinsler got moved to second with Pedroia at short) but he was pretty universally considered not able to play SS defensively in the majors.
They are different players, but the point is that there have been many guys who weren't able to play SS defense in the majors who got moved to second base and played very good defense there. Pedroia is one of many.
 

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This is just not consistent with them wooing Yamamoto.
He signed a 12 year contract. That would cover several windows.
I have no idea if they made a serious play for him or not, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. If they evaluated him as such, every now and then a player comes around that you alter your plan for.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Has there been any concrete reporting as to the extent of their “wooing of Yamamoto”?
You mean other than meeting with him and his agents directly?

I take chrisfont9 to mean that if ownership truly believed the team was 2-3 years away and were intent on cost-cutting and waiting on the farm for prospects to mature, they wouldn't have even bothered with pursuing Yamamoto at all. That they weren't among the "finalists" or didn't make a publicly acknowledged/confirmed offer is beside the point.
 

SouthernBoSox

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So in following all the Shoto Imanaga reports it seems like it’s most likely a two horse race between the Angels and Red Sox.

I believe he has made the most sense for the pitch dev since day one. And now with Chris Sale gone, I think he makes even more sense.
 

jmanny24

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
 

jbupstate

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
I think it makes just as much sense as FSG being cheap.
 

chrisfont9

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You mean other than meeting with him and his agents directly?

I take chrisfont9 to mean that if ownership truly believed the team was 2-3 years away and were intent on cost-cutting and waiting on the farm for prospects to mature, they wouldn't have even bothered with pursuing Yamamoto at all. That they weren't among the "finalists" or didn't make a publicly acknowledged/confirmed offer is beside the point.
Correct. All the reporting suggests that they tried to pitch to him for real, and he wasn't biting. Remember three weeks ago when they were supposedly inviting him to Boston, only he declined? It is what it is, but you don't kick the tires on a guy like that if you have predetermined not to sign "top free agents," it would be embarrassing to do that.

I think they will splurge on the right guy but short of that, they hunt for cost-effective deals. Obviously what do I know? But my guess is that longer-term deals for the few guys worth giving them to -- guys who pop early or for some reason can be had before age 28ish -- fit their idea of their competitive window, which is perhaps something like "maybe in 2024, a little more likely in 2025 and then hell yes after that." That would explain why they aren't in a rush to sign Monty or Snell, who require long term deals but probably won't live up to them very well in 2025 or later. So they target younger guys for the real push, and guys on shorter deals (Giolito, maybe Teoscar) for near term where they maybe compete but also hedge their bets. Bottom line, I don't think they are just out on making big deals just because they haven't made one in 11 months. But I do think they are more cautious about them than some of the teams we lump them in with in terms of team finances.
 

CR67dream

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
It's certainly gone through my mind as a possibility along with a lot of other things. I also wonder if perhaps the scribes are frustrated with just how little they are getting from the Sox that it might contribute to the slant. "We can only report what we see and hear" and such. So hard to say. I just hope the dam breaks soon.

My guess is that we'll see some major movement over the next couple of weeks. If the Sox go into Winter Weekend with nothing else accomplished, MGM is going to need to hire extra security. Only half kidding....
 

jmanny24

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It's certainly gone through my mind as a possibility along with a lot of other things. I also wonder if perhaps the scribes are frustrated with just how little they are getting from the Sox that it might contribute to the slant. "We can only report what we see and hear" and such. So hard to say. I just hope the dam breaks soon.

My guess is that we'll see some major movement over the next couple of weeks. If the Sox go into Winter Weekend with nothing else accomplished, MGM is going to need to hire extra security. Only half kidding....
I agree with all of this, beginning with the Thursday deadline for Imanaga. Another reason that has me thinking this is that (at least to me) why do the local guys have this narrative but it seems like the national guys still have the Sox in (to some extent) on the guys people want them in on. So which is it?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Correct. You don't kick the tires on a guy like that if you have predetermined not to sign "top free agents," it would be embarrassing to do that. I think they will splurge on the right guy but short of that, they hunt for cost-effective deals. Obviously what do I know? But my guess is that longer-term deals for the few guys worth giving them to -- guys who pop early and can be had before age 28ish -- fit their idea of their competitive window, which is perhaps something like "maybe in 2024, a little more likely in 2025 and then hell yes after that." That would explain why they aren't in a rush to sign Monty or Snell, who require long term deals but probably won't live up to them very well in 2025 or later. So they target younger guys for the real push, and guys on shorter deals (Giolito, maybe Teoscar) for near term where they maybe compete but also hedge their bets. Bottom line, I don't think they are just out on making big deals just because they haven't made one in 11 months. But I do think they are more cautious about them than some of the teams we lump them in with in terms of team finances.
I cannot speak for negotiations between professional baseball teams/professionals but in most business transactions there is no shame in an inquiry. There are serious buyers and sellers and those who are less so. Even if it might embarrass some people here to just make the call, the world is filled with salespeople/marketing/transactional types who have zero shame in asking any question.

Embarrassment isn't a real constraint and if it is, the wrong people are probably in that job. I will add that we have had numerous examples of professional sports teams who check in on a player they don't really intend to sign. Precisely to say they tried.
 

chawson

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
That’s certainly more of a possibility than is being considered among the beat reporters in question, yes.

So in following all the Shoto Imanaga reports it seems like it’s most likely a two horse race between the Angels and Red Sox.

I believe he has made the most sense for the pitch dev since day one. And now with Chris Sale gone, I think he makes even more sense.
The location seems to be a real factor for anyone making the trip from Japan. So you gotta tip your cap to him if he chooses there. But man, imagine choosing to play for the Angels.
Correct. All the reporting suggests that they tried to pitch to him for real, and he wasn't biting. Remember three weeks ago when they were supposedly inviting him to Boston, only he declined? It is what it is, but you don't kick the tires on a guy like that if you have predetermined not to sign "top free agents," it would be embarrassing to do that.

I think they will splurge on the right guy but short of that, they hunt for cost-effective deals. Obviously what do I know? But my guess is that longer-term deals for the few guys worth giving them to -- guys who pop early or for some reason can be had before age 28ish -- fit their idea of their competitive window, which is perhaps something like "maybe in 2024, a little more likely in 2025 and then hell yes after that." That would explain why they aren't in a rush to sign Monty or Snell, who require long term deals but probably won't live up to them very well in 2025 or later. So they target younger guys for the real push, and guys on shorter deals (Giolito, maybe Teoscar) for near term where they maybe compete but also hedge their bets. Bottom line, I don't think they are just out on making big deals just because they haven't made one in 11 months. But I do think they are more cautious about them than some of the teams we lump them in with in terms of team finances.
Totally agree with this. The Red Sox interest was genuine from every account and a YY deal would have added $25-30 AAV, though that’s comfortably omitted from all these speculative reports about cutting payroll.

All of the focus right now is on payroll, not the actual roster. It would make sense if Breslow is being careful about free agent deals, because there really are a lot of homegrown players we want on the 40-man in 2025.
 

CR67dream

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Occam's Razor tells me that when they talked with Yamamoto's agents, it probably became pretty clear that Boston was not a preferred destination, and that it would take an astronomical bid to even be considered.

I don't doubt that they floated the 300 mil range, but once it's clear that's not close to getting it done, the smart move is to move on. No official offer necessary. It just makes sense.

RR posted above the full terms of what it took to sign him at his first choice. Does anyone really think adding a massive premium on top of all that would have been in the best interest of the future of the Red Sox? For a guy who's never thrown a major league pitch? That kind of deal would have terrified me. Thanks but no thanks.
 

chrisfont9

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I cannot speak for negotiations between professional baseball teams/professionals but in most business transactions there is no shame in an inquiry. There are serious buyers and sellers and those who are less so. Even if it might embarrass some people here to just make the call, the world is filled with salespeople/marketing/transactional types who have zero shame in asking any question.

Embarrassment isn't a real constraint and if it is, the wrong people are probably in that job. I will add that we have had numerous examples of professional sports teams who check in on a player they don't really intend to sign. Precisely to say they tried.
Baseball is a very small world so I don't know if I would compare it to a lot of other industries in how relationships work. I also think the part where they say they are all in, then make performative inquiries into Yamamoto without being serious but while leaking enough indications that they are, to the point where every coverage had them somewhere in the mix, when in fact they have shifted to a policy of not pursuing top free agents... I mean, it's entirely possible. We'll see.
 

Ronnie_Dobbs

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
I was thinking about this the other day too, and I actually hope it is the truth.
 

Sprowl

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So in following all the Shoto Imanaga reports it seems like it’s most likely a two horse race between the Angels and Red Sox.

I believe he has made the most sense for the pitch dev since day one. And now with Chris Sale gone, I think he makes even more sense.
With Giolito and Imanaga on the same staff, the ball will be flying out of Fenway this summer.

I haven't heard much speculation about the Red Sox' valuation discipline under Breslow, but I presume they think that neither Montgomery nor Snell are worth the bids they're fetching.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Latest on Imanaga:

• NYY: out (per multiple reports)
• NYM: not probable (per Marino)
• SF: unlikely (per CBO Zaidi)
• CHC: not seen as likely (per The Athletic)

• LAA: finalist; nothing new

• BOS: interested, “lurking”, likely unwilling to commit $100m+ (as of 1/5)

https://x.com/ggeiss24/status/1743725927228379251?s=46
This is more or less what I was referring to. The market on Imanaga seems fairly soft.
 

moondog80

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With Giolito and Imanaga on the same staff, the ball will be flying out of Fenway this summer.

I haven't heard much speculation about the Red Sox' valuation discipline under Breslow, but I presume they think that neither Montgomery nor Snell are worth the bids they're fetching.
If the entire FA market is overpriced, what's the plan to leverage the financial advantage they have over 90% of the league?
 

Sprowl

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If the entire FA market is overpriced, what's the plan to leverage the financial advantage they have over 90% of the league?
So far the subsidized-Sale trade is the only obvious example, sweetening the deal enough to bring over a solid prospect like Grissom.

If the Red Sox can't leverage their advantage much during the off-season, then at the summer trading deadline, I would expect the Red Sox to be willing to take on some bad contracts from other teams that find themselves out of the running and want to shed their competent but overpaid veterans.

But yeah, I am also disappointed by their failure to weaponize their ample revenue under Bloom, and hope Breslow has a few more tricks up his sleeve.
 

nighthob

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I wouldn’t say far less important. You don’t need to look very far, hell, one guy Dustin Pedroia, showed us how important an excellent feeling second baseman is.
I loved Dustin. Speedy Gonzalez he wasn't. He's case in point as to why feel for the position (2B) is a whole lot more important than raw physical quickness/speed.
 

moondog80

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So far the subsidized-Sale trade is the only obvious example, sweetening the deal enough to bring over a solid prospect like Grissom.

If the Red Sox can't leverage their advantage much during the off-season, then at the summer trading deadline, I would expect the Red Sox to be willing to take on some bad contracts from other teams that find themselves out of the running and want to shed their competent but overpaid veterans.

But yeah, I am also disappointed by their failure to weaponize their ample revenue under Bloom, and hope Breslow has a few more tricks up his sleeve.
I actually think they did weaponize it under Bloom, to some degree anyway. By the tax numbers, they were 6th in spending in 2022 and 5th in 2021. I gave then a mulligan for slipping to 12th last year as it seemed worth it to get under the tax. And of course, the offseason is far form over. But if they don't end up at or near the threshold, it's going to be a big disappointment.
 

Auger34

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That’s certainly more of a possibility than is being considered among the beat reporters in question, yes.


All of the focus right now is on payroll, not the actual roster. It would make sense if Breslow is being careful about free agent deals, because there really are a lot of homegrown players we want on the 40-man in 2025.
This thread has made me seem like I am a Cotillo family member when in actuality I think he’s kind of a twerp….

however, I am going to ask you again…what makes you decide which reporters or reports are valuable? I honestly can’t figure out why some of them are worth posting and believing in your estimation versus the ones you vehemently disagree with
 

Yo La Tengo

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One thing I've been wondering about too is, given how tight-lipped the Fens has been with the moves coming out of nowhere so to speak. Could this CBT mid-market narrative be something that is being fed out there even through whatever sources are being used, as a form of misdirection? Or is that too tin foil hatish?
There have been a few of us speculating about that storyline, since it really doesn't feel quite right:

I continue to hope this talk about shedding salary is either strategic leaks ("we love this guy and don't want to trade him but... the budget") or the media echo chamber devolving into reposts of fan angst.
The one reason this “cutting payroll” stuff does not pass the smell test for me is that, the sox usually will try and get in front of news like this. For example the bridge year comments during the theo days.
If the sox are going to be operating in a vastly different manner than they have during their entire time owning the sox, they would usually get in front of it.
I wear a size 7 5/8ths hat if you've got the foil.
 

Harry Hooper

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If the entire FA market is overpriced, what's the plan to leverage the financial advantage they have over 90% of the league?
It certainly looks like the asking prices on FA starters are way up there with even the Yankees softly grumbling about it. I believe that's why the Giants opted to grab Robbie Ray and his contract as an alternative move. Are there other Robbie Rays out there, though, among starting pitchers? Otherwise, you're shopping for a bittersweet bundle (think Arrojo-Lansing) from somebody.

You can try to replicate the Giolito signing, as in pay a higher salary for a 1-year or 2-year commitment. Some players might be getting antsy with no firm destination and about 30 days to go to the start of spring training, and so become willing sign on to a short-term deal with the idea of going back into FA in 1-2 years. Imanaga has to be signed by the 11th, so that getting resolved might catalyze more movement.
 

6-5 Sadler

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I’m all for a good conspiracy theory but what’s their angle here? Is it they’re negotiating with a free agent and want to signal they’re not willing to move on their price? Is it misdirection for other teams so they don’t keep bidding up on players if they think the Sox are out?
 
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