These are those players numbers from 2021 through 2023. Even with Giolito's abysmal second half last year.
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Those projections seem to assume a full season, and while I liked watching Paxton and Sale pitch when they were healthy, I think that not having to worry about 40% of your rotation going down hurt (Paxton has thrown more than 150 innings once in his entire career), is kind of nice.
The rotation, to me, has a solid floor, and some pretty serious upside right now. I do not think James Paxton would have been a major upgrade.
Bello
Giolito
Crawford
Pivetta
That's a solid top 4. If they can untap Houck's third time through potential it becomes a deep rotation.
You then have Criswell, Winckowski and Fitts (who I am really high on, and think he could be ready very soon) as injury depth.
They already have a deep bullpen, and if they shock us all and sign Montgomery (I doubt it happens) then that is a really good staff. Even without Montgomery, I think this staff can keep them competitive.