My problem with the bottoming out idea is ... how are you going to build towards 2024 or 2025 trading two of your best players? Devers is going to be 27 in the 2024 season, Story is signed through 2027; what are you going to get in return that's going to accelerate that process? Aren't you better off keeping good players and building around them?
Tanking has some merit in the NBA where the right #1 overall pick can immediately change the course of your franchise. That's not true by any means in baseball, and even high level prospects closer to the majors have uncertain futures.
To be clear, I wouldn't mess with Casas, Bello, Mayer, and probably not even some of the next tier guys like Rafaela and Bleis. But there's no reason they can't trade some of the C level prospects for guys that can help and spend some money, both to fix short term holes and to add long term pieces (like Story) they can build around.
One advantage the Red Sox have is that the stuff they sucked at this year, they sucked hard. It's difficult (and expensive) to go from average to good. But improving on what they got out of the bullpen, 1B, OF, and the back end of the rotation, is a short hurdle to clear. They have some holes this year they didn't have last year (DH, C, SS) to address too, so it might take more than one offseason to fix everything, but it's not like they're loaded with expensive mediocrities they can't upgrade. They don't need superstars, just competence.
What you call "the hybrid model," I see as the job of GM. It's easy to say "we're going to sell off everything that's not screwed down" for prospects that hypothetical provide some return in some nebulous future. It's hard to decide which pieces to sell off, which to keep, which big contracts are worth signing and which aren't, who are the trade targets we may not even be aware of, which prospects are future stars to build around and which are trade chips. But that's the job.
I think whether you blow this team up now or keep adding to it is dependent on a couple of things, the first two being: how much better will the Sox be next year against its division and where they sit in the division hierarchy.
I think we can all agree that the Sox aren’t going to have the same record against the AL East next year. For one thing, there won’t be as many games against their rivals and for another, they simply can’t be that bad against these teams. But how much better?
As far as the division itself, on November 15, the Red Sox are clearly the fifth best team in the league. They aren’t the worst team in the AL and if they were in the Central it would be a different discussion, but they’re not. It sucks to say but they are clearly the fifth best team and they have a lot of holes. As everyone has said, this off-season is really important because they have a chance to fix these holes. That’s a known.
That belies the next question: are there too many holes on this team to see any real improvement? Because yes, the Red Sox will get better. But so won’t the Jays, Rays, Yanks and the Os—and they have less problems to fix.
So the Sox are already starting this off-season behind the eight ball. Assuming that they bring Bogaerts back (and this isn’t a slam dunk, there are four star shortstops on the market. The previous teams who’ve employed these shortstops will need new ones and the Phillies also need a SS. That means someone is going into Spring Training unhappy.) add to this problem is that the Red Sox also have to address their outfield, bullpen and starters.
There are some folks on this board who are happy with the starters (especially if they bring Eovaldi back). I’m not one of those. I’m intrigued by the staff’s potential but I’m not willing to bet the farm that a majority don’t end up on IL by July. This is a very high risk/reward staff. I expect Bloom to add to it (other than Eovaldi) but I’m not sure whom.
The bullpen is a hard thing to create. Even Theo had a tough time doing it. I expect Bloom to sign a crapload of guys and see what sticks. Again, high risk/high reward. Also their best reliever of the last two seasons (Whitlock) is going to start. So that’s subtraction by subtraction in terms of the bullpen.
In terms of the offense, the outfield was pretty terrible last year, especially in the power department so they have to find a player or two to remake the OF (and Refsnyder is not that dude.) Not only that but they also have to find a DH to also supply the lineup with more power.
If Bogaerts comes back, the infield should be fine (though assuming Casas is just going to rake from game one might be overly optimistic but I think that Hosmer is a decent Plan B — he’s better than Travis Shaw). Catching is okay, I’m not worried about that as much.
This is a lot to do in three months. And it’s going to take money (which they have) and resources (ditto) to turn a sub 500 team into a plus 500 team. The final question is: is it worth it? Is it worth the money and prospects that you need to spend in order to be pretty good? I expect them to be better in 2023 than they were in 2022. But at the same time I think that they have too many holes to be great or even really good. (And yes, a 2013 season could happen, but are you willing to bet the mortgage that it will? I’m not.)
I’m the last person who’d say the Sox need to punt because the Boston RedSox should never even think about it. Ever. But, I think that this roster is such a mess and I don’t see an easy way out of it that it’s probably the only answer right now. Punt, save your resources and regroup in 2024.
But do I trust the guy/FO who got us into this mess to get us out? No, not really. But it doesn’t matter, it’s what we have right now.