Patriots' 2024 Free Agency Thread

Ed Hillel

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Wow, Onwenu’s deal is not great. It’s basically a two year deal, with cap hits of 11, 20, and 7.5 dead. 22.5 million signing bonus and 37 guaranteed seems pretty rich for effectively a two year deal. I guess the hope is to try to extend in 2026. Surprised they backloaded given the room they have. Must still have some big targets left.
How is it only a 2 year deal? If he's good, a 16 million base salary two years from now for a good Tackle or Guard will be a pretty easy number to pay, unless they've drafted well and have a cheaper option and can use him as trade bait.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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How is it only a 2 year deal? If he's good, a 16 million base salary two years from now for a good Tackle or Guard will be a pretty easy number to pay, unless they've drafted well and have a cheaper option and can use him as trade bait.
It's $17.5 million ($500k workout and $1m roster), but it's the $25 million cap hit that's the problem. Maybe you're right -- they'll regard the $7.5 million dead cap as sunk cost so that they really only view it as a $17,500,000 cap hit, incrementally. And maybe the cap will go up significantly in the next two years where a $25 million cap hit doesn't seem so bad. But that's a big number and one that cries out for a restructure or cut. Non QBs with $25 million cap numbers don't usually play under that number but I guess some do.
 

Ed Hillel

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It's $17.5 million ($500k workout and $1m roster), but it's the $25 million cap hit that's the problem. Maybe you're right -- they'll regard the $7.5 million dead cap as sunk cost so that they really only view it as a $17,500,000 cap hit. And maybe the cap will go up significantly in the next two years where a $25 million cap hit doesn't seem so bad. But that's a big number and one that cries out for a restructure or cut.
Yeah, as you say, the cap hit is really kind of irrelevant outside of sports talk nomenclature. It's just a decision as to whether they'd want to pay him 16 million, which I think is likely to be about what an average free agent Tackle or Guard is going to be making in 2026. The cap is going to blow up bigly the next couple seasons.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Nothing says "dynasty over" quite like not being preferred to the Jacksonville Jaguars!
I've said all along, that I think he might feel some loyalty to Jacksonville.

Let's not forget, Ridley stepped away from football altogether in Oct. 2021 due to "mental health reasons."

Then in March, 2022, he was suspended for the entire upcoming season due to gambling on football during the 2021 season (which may or may not have been part of why he stepped away).

Then, while suspended, the Jags gave up a conditional 6th and a 4th in Nov. knowing he wouldn't even play, at best (he wasn't reinstated yet) until the following season.

His first game in a Jags uniform, after the suspension and almost 2 years away from the game, he went off for 6-101-1td.

I don't know much about him personally, but I wouldn't be surprised if he felt he might never come back to the league again after his suspension and Jax took the chance. Of course, it could also be that he just likes the weather in Florida and the lack of income taxes.
 

NortheasternPJ

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Relatedly, every clip I have seen of Bedard on Felger and Mazz convinces me that they (perhaps not so) secretly hate the guy. They constantly ridicule his reporting and analysis and make fun of his conclusions.
It's by far the worst show on Boston Sports Radio, yet one of the highest rated, so they get more and more outrageous on their takes. They constantly shit on their guests too.
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm going to guess that ends up being a 3 year deal, but it's still going to be a shit ton of money with all that guaranteed.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Just goes to show how usless most of the tweets abotu what FAs are thinking are worth---a completely different team than was being speculated.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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No thanks on that Ridley money. He’s a number 2 receiver at best
I was just in the middle of making a post when this news dropped highlighting all of the reasons he wouldn't want to leave JAX (weather, taxes, from FL, good QB/roster, familiarity with offense) and it had me wondering how much the Pats would have to overpay to get him to leave that situation. I guess I've got my answer now.

I'm absolutely fine not beating that contract for a player I liked but didn't love. Hopefully the Pats can find a good one in the draft.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah no way did I want him for that. Of course, the Pats still have lots of money and the impact players they could spend it on are drying up. I’m not interested in them just having a lot more cap space.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Didn’t want Ridley generally and certainly not at that price but it’s getting hard to see where any actual upgrade to the offense will come outside of (hopefully) QB
 
Oct 12, 2023
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I know the cap went up, and goes up almost every off season, but that money for Ridley seems crazy. Glad we didn't sign him.
30M AAV is going to be the standard for high end receivers (Chase, Jefferson) so 20+ for a low end 1 seems “reasonable”. Don’t like Ridley but at least Tennessee is trying to set Levis up for success.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Anyone want to guess what it will really look like? I'll probably be way off but fun to try to play capologist. I won't mess with roster bonuses and just include it as salary. Guaranteed in bold.

$30 million signing

2024 $4 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $11.5 million cap hit
2025 $16 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $23.5 million cap hit
2026 $21 million salary $7.5m bonus proration $28.5 million cap hit ($15 million dead cap)
2027 $21 million salary 7.5m bonus proration $28.5 million cap hit ($7.5 million dead cap)
 

dynomite

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ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm going to assume they aren't completely done with all FA options. The tweet said the Pats will "mainly" turn their attention to the draft. They took a swing at the top guy on the free agent market and missed, so they're probably going to take a step back and look for value/fit instead of looking to just sign the next name on the list of free agents so they can say they filled a need.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm going to assume they aren't completely done with all FA options. The tweet said the Pats will "mainly" turn their attention to the draft. They took a swing at the top guy on the free agent market and missed, so they're probably going to take a step back and look for value/fit instead of looking to just sign the next name on the list of free agents so they can say they filled a need.
I’m hoping their next move is Tyron Smith. Get it done, Theo!
 

BaseballJones

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Plenty of money left. Huge needs.

1. Sign Tyron Smith to a 2-year deal. Immediately upgrades the OL in a major way.
2. Sign Mike Williams to a 2-year deal. Immediately upgrades the WR position in a major way.

Both come with risks. That's why you make the deals short.

Then use the draft to get your QB, another OT, another WR, a young backup RB, a young TE, and defensive help.

Then the 2024 Patriots will have much more talent than the 2023 Patriots, with not many long term albatross contracts. Which would both be a good thing.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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stay away from williams he is always hurt get the vegas wr
Mike Williams is not "always hurt". 2019-2023 games played: 15, 15, 16, 13, 3. So last year, yeah. A problem. But the other seasons, not bad at all. 2022 I'd like to have seen 15, not 13, but he shouldn't require a big, long commitment, and he really would instantly be by FAR the best receiver on the team. He's a total game changer when he's on the field.
 

Harry Hooper

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Breer says $23m/year for Ridley is an incredibly strong deal, so in his eyes what does that make the Pats offer at $22m/year he mentioned?
 

Salem's Lot

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I know the cap went up, and goes up almost every off season, but that money for Ridley seems crazy. Glad we didn't sign him.
Eventually they’re going to have to pay the freight if they want actual good players. Very few of those hit free agency. They had a shot at one and wouldn’t go the extra mile. Same old shit from this team.
 

tims4wins

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Eventually they’re going to have to pay the freight if they want actual good players. Very few of those hit free agency. They had a shot at one and wouldn’t go the extra mile. Same old shit from this team.
How high would you want them to go for a 30 YO WR who has never been truly elite to begin with?

Edit: and I'm as anti-Bloom as anyone on the board. I wanted him to spend. But paying Ridley 4/$100 would be madness to me. I get you need good players, and I get you need to spend eventually. But just signing the best available guy to a top of the market deal is how you end up with guys like Jonnu Smith and Agholor.