If the 4 best rookies are gone there isn't a "long term" solution to be had. That's the point of the Cam deal, he's a cheap short term fix until you can draft someone else. None of the other possibilities (Jimmy G, Minshew, Teddy B, etc.) are long term solutions, and some may not even be better than Cam in terms of upside.
Why Newman over Mond? Newman is older, less experienced, slower and less accurate.
He has a better arm for one. Also, I'm not sure less accurate is really true. There are areas he is more accurate (particularly he's much more accurate downfield (15+ yards).
I'm not as down on Cam as a lot of people here, but he's probably no better than an averagish QB at best. He's fine for next year, but he's physically breaking down and I don't expect him to last. And "next year's Wentz" is what I meant when I made the remark about the long term answer being a retread of some sort. It's going to end up being someone like Goff or Darnold that's underperformed.
See below. Newman is definitely more accurate on on downfield throws if the Patriots could add another deep threat at the WR spot in the draft (they have a shorter term answer in house now, but could use another one).
Newman is a much bigger project than Mond and doesn’t really offer a higher ceiling. Mond still has a good arm, much better awareness and is more explosive creating plays with his feet. Getting hung up on downfield throws when both are inaccurate overall seems silly.
Because Shanahan smiled at Fields pro day? Gotta pull in some money from the suckers I guess.
I think there are three things...
Because Fields was always considered the significantly better prospect, and the only reason Jones was getting good odds was leaks saying SF traded up for him. Once leaks put that in doubt, the odds are going to shift quickly.
Have guys like Schefter and the like walked that back? Because some big names said it was Jones and I don't know if they've softened on that. They might have, I don't see everything obviously.
Okay, I'll ask--why aren't Lawrence's numbers better? I mean, they're really good but he only has 1 box that's dark green--Fields and Jones have 5. And he has 2 light red.
This is basically what Belichick did in Cleveland. Their big QB move was Vinny Testaverde for a song after Testaverde washed out of Tampa Bay.
He's not quite as accurate? Lawrence isn't the most accurate QB in this class, he's #1 because he's still quite accurate, the physical tools, the field reading, the release speed, and he's done it for 3 years with exceptional consistency.
I think you have to rank Wilson as by far the #1 bust contender, pending who ends up taking Fields / Lance / Mac. That said, I would probably take a bet that whoever SF takes will have a better career than Lawrence, especially if I was given favorable odds. I'd probably say the same about the Pats too if they take a QB.
This makes sense in theory, and I agree it does seem like Belichick is thinking this way to some degree. Problem is I'm not sure if he's right or, at best, a ton of things have to go right for this to work. I guess SF and Jimmy G showed that this approach could work, and Nick Foles on the Eagles is kind of also an example (although the Eagles of course didn't intentionally seek out a cheap vet QB to start for them - Wentz was Plan A). Other than that, though, the Super Bowl teams from the last two decades have pretty much all had QBs that they either drafted themselves, or paid market rate for to get via free agency (Brady last year as the obvious example, but I think Brees qualifies here too).
I agree that Wilson has high bust potential - higher than Lawrence, especially if he goes to the Jets at #2 as everyone expects and has to learn how to be a QB in the New York media market. But I'm sure Vegas would price that bust potential into their odds (in the hypothetical world in which it's possible to set "bust" odds), whereas Lawrence would be my better bet, if that makes sense.
Totally agree, if there was a market for such a thing I think betting on Lawrence to bust would be a fantastic bet.
For years, the Pats have always been thin somewhere. It's sort of BB's MO, as building for the long haul AND building a bulletproof juggernaut is nearly impossible. Maybe this theory is the manifestation of that at QB, while they load up at all the other positions for a change.
Interesting to think about how to measure "busting" for a kid who has been ballyhooed as a future #1 pick since he was 17? I think that's the first time I read about him.
Yeah obviously it's a hard thing to define. I'd go with no Pro Bowls but with guys opting out like 10 QBs a year make the Pro Bowl so he could make one even if he's not very good. Passer rating is hard because that seems to be on an upward trajectory over the past 15 years - Drew Bledsoe was no bust and his best single season rating was 87.7! (career 77.1!).
Generally I would consider a first rounder a bust if the team that drafted them doesn't at least pick up the option. But for Lawerence I would say that if he doesn't play well enough to warrant say a big time extension 3-4 years from now, people will call him a bust.
Tim Couch's career is really weird. Dude was basically a league average QB who took the Browns to the playoffs and then got benched the following season. I mean, '99-'02 Tim Couch was a better QB than '04-'07 Eli Manning. Sure, he's a bust, I just think both him and Carr could have succeeded in different circumstances. Out of all those guys Jamarcus is the only one I'd say is a disaster of a pick.
I think given expectations Winston and Bradford would absolutely qualify as "busts" - maybe not as bad as Russell, but if Trevor Lawrence ends up being a mediocre-to-slightly-above-average QB on a bad Jacksonville team for 5ish years, which is more or less what happened with Winston and Bradford, Jaguars fans will likely look back on the pick with disappointment - particularly if one of the other top 5 QBs becomes a star.
I'll disagree here, although it's likely a semantics debate. Both have been serviceable enough to be above "bust" level and more in the category of those who just never became elite.
Agreed ... which is why I doubt the "speculation" in those tweets, unless the Patriots believe that Jones actually is a round or two better than the second-tier quarterbacks in this draft.
On the other hand the roster seems solid enough that they don't have obvious needs anywhere else. If they like a guy, I'm all for going QB as early as possible, I have faith in this coching staff to identify the right player.
Definitely if they have to trade up, but if someone falls to them at 15, and then he fails, that wouldn't be catastrophic IMO
Maybe they just evaluated Fromm really negatively.
Depends on who falls, of course, but I'd hate to seem them take a QB just because (insert name here) fell. I'm starting to learn cornerback, given age and looming free agency in the defensive backfield
The list is probably somewhere in this thread, but who's the best non-6th round-flier they drafted at quarterback? The injury-laden JG? Cassell?
Maybe. I think some of that is overblown... he was accurate, the rest....
Brissett maybe?
I guess you can debate it back and forth in the abstract but it seems pretty clear to me that Belichick not only goes back a long time with Saban but greatly respects his program and his opinions on players. Unless Saban is telling him things in private that completely contradict everything he has said publicly about Jones, I don't see how anybody would be surprised by Belichick liking Jones.
If I had to place a bet on what position their first selection would be, I'd call it CB 1A and OL 1B
Oh I get that Saban and Bill are close, I'm pointing out that Saban is a weasel and he'd have told you what a great kid Aaron Hernandez was if he went to Alabama,.
That's fair enough. I'm not really trying to argue what we should or should not do, only that I would not be surprised if we do end up with Jones, for better or for worse (assumedly under the scenario in which the 49ers take Fields #3)
They never had to find a starter in the draft, I don't think it's fair to judge them on past picks at the position (most of which were in the 4th round or later).
I've read a lot of that, and if they are that similar why are all the experts thinking Mac Jones is a Day 1 pick and no one thought anything close to that about Fromm?
Jones is better, I don't argue that at all. The question is how much (to me, I'd be very happy with Mac Jones in the 3rd, okay with him in the 2nd maybe even).
I think his point was more that the staff hasn't really given much reason to assume they'll pick the right guy which the post he was responding to posited. It's not about judging them on their past picks, but more a note that their success rate on the QBs they've taken isn't some great outlier. They might pick the right guy... they might whiff, they've done both at all rounds of the draft.
I don't think that's an accurate characterization of Harry - he tested really well, he is just terrible against press and his route-running is bad. I would not have described him as "polished." A.J. Brown was a lot more polished coming out IMO.
Thanks for responding.
Harry did not test really well. His 40 was averagish, his splits were poor, his 3 cone and shuttle were poor. He benched a lot and his vertical was good, but his profile definitely was not "top WR athlete".
His 40 was averageish, as you say. His 3-cone and shuttle were also pretty much average. But having average speed and agility at 6'3" 228 pounds is really impressive. He has an 8.45 RAS. But if you don't consider size part of the physical traits, fine: what I'm really objecting to is characterizing him as polished. He wasn't and isn't, and obviously he wasn't a high-floor guy by any stretch of the imagination.
What you're describing is floor, not ceiling. I agree some guys lack the requisite arm strength to be starting NFL QBs, but that just means guys with questionable arms have low floors. For guys with adequate arm strength, I don't think it has much impact on ceiling. Drew Brees had a top-10 all-time career with an arm that was no better than average and often worse. Denver Peyton Manning had a terrible arm and was still very effective until his last season.
