Agreed. Contracts aside how many guys on this team look like they'll be high end starters in 2023 or 2024? Maybe 3 guards? Duggar? Maybe JC Jackson? Perhaps if some of the younger players really take off or Wynn improves _and_ gets over the injury problems he's had so far in his career?
Great post, 2020 felt eerily similar to 2000. The scheme seemed pretty great but the execution, especially at crunch time, was often lacking. I still have flashbacks of Antonio Langham allowing interceptions to become TDs in the end zone.
You could probably add 2005 and 2008 Steelers and Big Ben to the list, unless 17 tds in a season is great. (I forgot he was worse in 2008 with 15 int)
‘Not a good track record’ in this case means ‘completely and intentionally full of shit.’
Isn't it conceivable Caserio views Dugger, Onwenu, and Uche as more valuable than three future first round picks?
Probably not Uche, who was drafted at the end of the second round and hardly played last year, but I obscured my point. All I meant is that it's hard to see how the Pats could put together the best offer when Houston likely could do another deal that would include them getting a QB back (e.g., Tua or a top pick that would enable them to draft one of the top QBs in this draft).
Can we just add this guy to the "Do Not Cite" list?* ... MoChanel ... not Jack
Hes not credible at all but there are reports the Pats were deep in Diggs trade talks
It’s absolutely conceivable that they may end up being better than any 3 first rounders...it’s not likely but it’s possible. But no good GM is going to think they they can’t and won’t use their own picks better than those players
I agree the Pats can't put together the best package, certainly not if Caserio likes one of Tua, Fields, or Lance (I think the Jets are taking Wilson and Houston's just floating Watson to NY to squeeze Miami). All I'm saying is if Caserio views Tua as nothing more than an average starting QB at best -- a reasonable assumption -- and if he's similarly unimpressed with Fields or Lance, then all bets are off.
Really? It's not conceivable he'd prefer Mike Onwenu, who made PFF's All Rookie Team and posted the lowest % of snaps with pressure of any rookie OT -- including Tristan Wirfs -- over a 2022 late first rounder from Miami (assuming Watson's their QB)?
Everything else is easy if you have a great QB. Everything is hard if you don't...
Yeah absolutely no. Players on rookie deals are like cars. Once signed, their values depreciate as each year goes by.
Right, I think as much as anything the Brady/Belichick era completed destroyed our perspective here. Take this idea:
Drew Brees has won one Super Bowl. Aaron Rodgers has one. Russ Wilson has one. Even though pretty much all of us expect more, Patrick Mahomes has one. Peyton Manning won one when he was a great QB and a second as a bad QB because he had an historically great defense.
True, plus NFL personnel guys seem to over-fetishize draft picks and don't really trade for players as much as they should.
Just to play devil's advocate -- and continue your car analogy -- some cars turn out to be shitty. Five years of shitty < three of Onwenu.
I both agree with all the points that have been made and also may be a bigger believer in BB than most.
This made me laugh.
There are 32 teams. That means if you win more than once every 32 years you are doing better than the crowd. If you make the Super Bowl once every 16 years you are doing better than the crowd.
The Patriots conceivably could be losing Thuney and Andrews this offseason. Wynn is solid when healthy, which isn't always. There had been some talk early in the offseason that Cannon might be cut.
Thanks for the link to the story, I did not recall the exact events regarding the contract, I thought the 49ers gave him big dough right away.
Wow. Talk about a straw man argument. It is absolutely a crazy reach to suggest that Onwenu will be a pro-bowl player in 2022 especially since we don't even know what position he plays in 2021. Onwenu exceeded expectations because they were so low coming in and he may yet develop into a first rate OL. And BTW if Caserio ever sent Watson to NE for Onwenu, Duggar and Uche, he would need the underground railroad to get out of Texas alive
[media]
Why on earth is it a crazy reach to think that Onwenu could be a pro-bowl player two years from now, when he was already one of the better OLinemen in the league this past year? Not an all-pro level yet, but not far off, as a rookie.
That's fair. I guess the point is that he's already reached a level that most 1st rounders don't make - being one of the better players at their position in the league - whether that's pro-bowl or not.
And Jake Bailye has done the same thing, but that doesn't mean he's a first round talent: positional value is very important. Owenewu is a great find but if you redrafted the 2020 draft I'm not positive he gets picked in the first round--not all teams value guards particularly highly.
The point is that a team might not value Owenewu like a first because even though he is a very good player he is a very good guard--and you'd rather take a chance at a first round edge rusher or left tackle or QB or whatever than get a very good guard.
If your point is that most players drafted in all sports end up in failure you are correct. Its hard to be a top of the line player in any sport. But we do know that the higher the draft pick the greater the chance of success and while Onwenu is a nice story and a valued asset for the Pats it is definitely not the norm
One confounding factor is that you get pick to all pro and pro bowl teams in part based on your reputation out of college and draft status.
Coming off the ACL injury, I wonder if he would do a 1 year deal, and a promise not to franchise, to hit free agency next year with a bigger cap. Pats can collect the comp pick in 2023.
