Playoff Fear Factor: Which EC team is your top concern?

Which potential Eastern Conference playoff foe concerns you the most?

  • Bucks

    Votes: 76 40.4%
  • Cavs

    Votes: 6 3.2%
  • Knicks

    Votes: 8 4.3%
  • Sixers

    Votes: 16 8.5%
  • Heat

    Votes: 43 22.9%
  • Pacers

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • Magic

    Votes: 5 2.7%
  • Bulls

    Votes: 1 0.5%
  • Hawks

    Votes: 2 1.1%
  • No team concerns me more than any other

    Votes: 29 15.4%

  • Total voters
    188

BaseballJones

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I'm worried about Miami and Milwaukee because Miami is a gigantic PITA and Milwaukee has top-end talent. Of course Denver is the ultimate worry but let's deal with first things first.

The good news is that if the season ended today, Miami is the 7 and Milwaukee is the 2, so they'd have to play each other, meaning Boston wouldn't have to face them both.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Unless Milwaukee somehow improves their defense SIGNIFICANTLY in the playoffs, it is Miami. That said, in the instance of a 2-point last-possession lead against either team, we can probably agree that the Heat would be a much easier defensive assignment than staring at Giannis driving for a close 2 or an And-1, or conversely a drive and kick to Dame for a clutch three-pointer which he is prone to bury.
 

lexrageorge

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The issue with the Bucks is that the have the conference's best player, and either he or Lillard could go supernova in a Game 7 if a series should come to that. I think the Celtics can handle Milwaukee (assuming good health, of course), but sometimes weird stuff happens in the playoffs.

Not at all impressed with this season's Heat. And having Holliday and KP is much better than having Marcus Smart and Grant Williams when it comes to beating the zone. And 2024 Mazzulla >>>> 2023 Mazzulla.
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm worried about Miami and Milwaukee because Miami is a gigantic PITA and Milwaukee has top-end talent. Of course Denver is the ultimate worry but let's deal with first things first.

The good news is that if the season ended today, Miami is the 7 and Milwaukee is the 2, so they'd have to play each other, meaning Boston wouldn't have to face them both.
Miami would have to win the play in to be 7, don’t forget, against the team they just lost to. Heat were 7 last year and lost at home to Atlanta in the play-in, then they were losing in Q4 against the Bulls at home before Jimmy went off last minute to save them.
 
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lovegtm

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Maybe I would change my answer to Philly from Miami, as the #2 most scary team?

Nurse is a better in-game coach than Doc, and if Embiid finds conditioning, he's scarier early in the playoffs. He was the best player enough in 2023 that he would have knocked the Cs out, absent Tatum's late heroics.

A lot of this depends on whether Jimmy Butler has an extra gear once again.
 

Tudor Fever

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I’m not afraid of losing to the Sixers but I am afraid of Embiid injuring Horford and KP
This is where I’m at. Philly in the first round could have a nasty spillover impact on later rounds, even in it’s just in the form of general wear and tear.
 

Curtis Pride

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I would rank the EC challengers to the Celtics' title pursuit thusly:

1. New York Knicks. They have the best defense in the conference, and get enough scoring from Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart to steal a few games. But Julius Randle is their 2nd leading scorer and leading rebounder, and he's out for the playoffs; and OG Anunoby, their best defensive player, is nursing a sore wrist. If Anunoby can play, the Knicks have a puncher's chance of knocking out the Celtics.

2. Milwaukee Bucks. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Bucks have the biggest 1-2 punch on offense, and when they're hot, not even the Celtics can keep up. The trick is, can they do it 4 times in a 7-games series? That will depend on their supporting cast. Offensively, they run 9 deep: Giannis and Lillard average 55 points a game, then Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, and Malik Beasley total 52.5 points per game, with Jae Crowder, Pat Connaughton, and Patrick Beverley contributing 5-6 points each. But their defense in mediocre: they allow about 117 points per game, 22nd of 30 NBA teams. They're going to have trouble slowing down the Celtics' offense.

3. Philadelphia 76ers. It all depends on Embiid's health and conditioning. If he can go seven games in a series, he can provide enough offense and defense to carry the team. Tyrese Maxey is a good second option, but after those two they have Tobias Harris, Kelly Oubre, Jr., Buddy Hield, and Kyle Lowry. De'Anthony Melton is out with a back injury and no timetable to return. They just don't seem to have a lot of depth.

4/5. Cleveland Cavaliers/Orlando Magic. These two defense-first teams can slow down the Celtics attack, but don't have enough offense to stay ahead.

6. Indiana Pacers. They have the NBA's highest-scoring offense. They also have the NBA's third-worst scoring defense. Some of is due to the faster pace they play. I'm not sure if that will play well in the playoffs.

7. Miami Heat. They're now the poor man's Cavs. They may not make it out of the play-in bracket.

8/9. Atlanta Hawks/Chicago Bulls. They have losing records. No, just no.
 

Euclis20

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I put down the Bucks for obvious reasons, but really the answer for me is none of the above. As has been discussed ad nauseam, this is the best regular season team since the Durant Warriors. If they don't make it to the finals, it will be the biggest disappointment in recent memory. A giant difference between the prime Warriors and the 2024 Celtics is that the former had absolutely legit competition in their own conference every year. In 2015, there were four other WC teams that won 55+ games. In 2016, the Spurs were an historically great team (67 wins and 5th best net rating ever). In 2017, again the Spurs were great (61 wins), and Houston was ascending and won 55 games. In 2018, Houston won 65 games.

This year, there is no similarly great team opposite Boston in the East, or even a number of strong contenders. No other team will win 55 games, and it's very possible that no one else win over 50. Every other decent team has either been injured (Philly, Cleveland, New York), underperformed (Miami, Milwaukee) or is just too young and inconsistent to be taken seriously (Indy, Orlando). The 2008 Celtics had to get past Detroit, who had dominated the previous half decade in the East and was still a legit beast in 2008 (59 wins and an excellent net rating). That the gap between 1st and 2nd in the east is greater than the gap between 2nd and 10th says just as much about the rest of the conference as it does about Boston.

Anything other than a championship will be an historically disappointing conclusion to the year. This team will take their place alongside the biggest disappointments of the 21st century (04 Lakers, 07 Mavs, 09 Cavs, 16 Warriors, 22 Suns). It will make for a nerve-wracking next couple of months, that's for sure.
 

slamminsammya

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No one is talking about Philly but Embiid is looking prettttay good. Who knows what his conditioning will be (probably bad) but his presence alone probably puts them just behind Milwaukee as far as threats for me.
 

Ed Hillel

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No one is talking about Philly but Embiid is looking prettttay good. Who knows what his conditioning will be (probably bad) but his presence alone probably puts them just behind Milwaukee as far as threats for me.
He looks about 75% to me. Still a problem on offense, but I highly doubt this is a guy built right now for a 7-game series. His D has been pathetic. He also had 8 turnovers tonight.
 

Euclis20

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Philly worries me more than Miami, but Embiid looks nowhere near 100%. He's putting up numbers because burying shitty teams is what he's best at, but Boston is 12-3 in the playoffs against Embiid, he's not healthy, and this is the best Boston team he's ever faced.

I'll say this - if Philly beats Miami in the 7/8 game, there's a real shot Miami is eliminated and we get one of Chicago/Atlanta in round 1. If Miami beats Philly in the 7/8 game, we are 100% playing Philly. Embiid won't lose in a game like that to a sub par team at home.
 

HomeRunBaker

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No one is talking about Philly but Embiid is looking prettttay good. Who knows what his conditioning will be (probably bad) but his presence alone probably puts them just behind Milwaukee as far as threats for me.
I’ve always felt Embiid’s lack of conditioning has been way overblown. I think it was last year it was discussed and I pointed to him having a stretch of B2B 40+ pt games and carrying the Sixers on the 3rd of 4 nights and stuff. Yes, he’s big and lumbering…he doesn’t look like a gazelle. He can get run up and down the floor when he’s tired or fresh for the above reasons. I’ve just never thought it was a real issue except for when he’s missed significant time.
 

lars10

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I’ve always felt Embiid’s lack of conditioning has been way overblown. I think it was last year it was discussed and I pointed to him having a stretch of B2B 40+ pt games and carrying the Sixers on the 3rd of 4 nights and stuff. Yes, he’s big and lumbering…he doesn’t look like a gazelle. He can get run up and down the floor when he’s tired or fresh for the above reasons. I’ve just never thought it was a real issue except for when he’s missed significant time.
But what do his numbers look like in the 4th? I may be completely wrong.. but in games I’ve seen it’s often felt like he’s gotten tired at end of games. Maybe I’m wrong and maybe his conditioning isn’t an issue, but I’d be interested to see the breakdown of his points per quarter.
 

m0ckduck

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Also, it took Mazzulla six-plus games last year to finally start putting Embiid into perimeter switches on Tatum (that series being probably the nadir of the CJM experience so far). The result was… oh, hum, a 50 point Tatum explosion and G7 blowout against an ostensibly-healthy Embiid. You have to believe they are going to that matchup a lot sooner and more often if they meet again this year.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Philly worries me more than Miami, but Embiid looks nowhere near 100%. He's putting up numbers because burying shitty teams is what he's best at, but Boston is 12-3 in the playoffs against Embiid, he's not healthy, and this is the best Boston team he's ever faced.

I'll say this - if Philly beats Miami in the 7/8 game, there's a real shot Miami is eliminated and we get one of Chicago/Atlanta in round 1. If Miami beats Philly in the 7/8 game, we are 100% playing Philly. Embiid won't lose in a game like that to a sub par team at home.
PHI with a healthy Embiid (yeah I know big if) is the biggest thing that worries me. They have some real pieces around him and were playing at a very high level before the injury.

For those worried about MIA, I don't think this year's team is like last year's team. First, Herro is going to play. :). Plus, for example, according to NBA.com, they are 28th in clutch rating at -15.7. They have some real offense issues down the stretch (as seen against PHI in the game last Thursday where MIA was up 102-94 with 6:38 left and then proceed to hit one 3P the rest of the way).
 

Euclis20

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PHI with a healthy Embiid (yeah I know big if) is the biggest thing that worries me. They have some real pieces around him and were playing at a very high level before the injury.

For those worried about MIA, I don't think this year's team is like last year's team. First, Herro is going to play. :). Plus, for example, according to NBA.com, they are 28th in clutch rating at -15.7. They have some real offense issues down the stretch (as seen against PHI in the game last Thursday where MIA was up 102-94 with 6:38 left and then proceed to hit one 3P the rest of the way).
Yeah you can definitely squint and see that. Philly played at a 64 win pace this year when Embiid was active, he's looked like the best player in the conference for large stretches over the last couple of years, and that whole team does seem to have gotten a boost from his return. There are some obvious counters to all that, but with the Bucks just completely crumbling down the stretch, the premise of this thread is looking like an awfully low bar.

It's looking more and more likely that the Celtics are going to be the only 50 win team in the conference (Milwaukee has to go 3-1, or Orlando/New York could go 4-0). The last time a conference had just one 50 win team (excluding covid and strike shortened seasons) was the EC in 2003. Detroit was the only team to win 50+, but at least things were competitive. Detroit had exactly 50 wins, and NJ had 49, Philly/Indy had 48 and NO (wow) had 47. The only thing that really scares me now is the pressure not to lose.
 

mostman

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Yeah you can definitely squint and see that. Philly played at a 64 win pace this year when Embiid was active, he's looked like the best player in the conference for large stretches over the last couple of years, and that whole team does seem to have gotten a boost from his return. There are some obvious counters to all that, but with the Bucks just completely crumbling down the stretch, the premise of this thread is looking like an awfully low bar.

It's looking more and more likely that the Celtics are going to be the only 50 win team in the conference (Milwaukee has to go 3-1, or Orlando/New York could go 4-0). The last time a conference had just one 50 win team (excluding covid and strike shortened seasons) was the EC in 2003. Detroit was the only team to win 50+, but at least things were competitive. Detroit had exactly 50 wins, and NJ had 49, Philly/Indy had 48 and NO (wow) had 47. The only thing that really scares me now is the pressure not to lose.
Meanwhile, in the WC, there’s an outside chance that all the teams that make it in above the play in will have 50 wins.
 

jon abbey

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Brunson averaged over 37 in 5 games against MIL this year, on I believe 52 percent shooting.
 

Euclis20

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Mitchell averaged 30 on 52% shooting against Milwaukee, Haliburton averaged 27 on 53% shooting, Maxey averaged 28 on 47% shooting, Herro averaged 27 on 51% shooting. High scoring guards just destroy the Bucks (of which Brunson is probably the best, at least in the EC), for obvious reasons.
 

radsoxfan

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But what do his numbers look like in the 4th? I may be completely wrong.. but in games I’ve seen it’s often felt like he’s gotten tired at end of games. Maybe I’m wrong and maybe his conditioning isn’t an issue, but I’d be interested to see the breakdown of his points per quarter.
Anecdotally I agree with you. I don't think it has shown up on offense as much as D. It seems like he can almost always get to his spots and score, but his late game defense has always looked a step slower to me compared to earlier in the game.

I tend to lean philly here also, though that's only with a healthy and in-shape Embiid. Certainly possible that never happens, but Embiid/Maxey/Nurse is at least as scary as Giannis/Dame/Doc.
 

snowmanny

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A 4/5 matchup of Magic/Pacers sounds helpful. But right now they are at 3/6, which seems less than ideal. They’d get the 2/7 winner.
 

Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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I voted Pacers, because while I ultimately can't see them beating the Celtics four times in seven games, their team speed and pace of play seems to give the Celtics fits.

Other than that, the only team capable of beating the Celtics is the Celtics. Stay healthy, stay focused and they got this.
 

Euclis20

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Go to the 24-minute mark & watch Dame's pitiful defense.

floating/gambling around on D, Kemba-style

Knicks relentlessly attack him, there is no offense Dame can produce that will cover up that defense. NONE.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R466Ar4Xtvo
There was always a not unreasonable expectation that a large part of Dame's admittedly awful defense in Portland was a result of his situation. High scorers on teams that are not title contenders (particularly for guards) tend not to defend very well. Put them on a serious team and their effort picks up, and they can spend less energy on offense and more on defense. This was the hope for Lillard, and man has he fallen short. It's one thing to be physically limited, it's another thing to conserve energy for offense, and it's a far worse third thing to just make dumb mistake after dumb mistake. The moment where he seems to randomly just double Brunson (leaving Divincenzo wide open) is incredible, as is Doc's reaction from the bench.

Maybe he's just waiting for the playoffs to try on defense. Maybe if everyone else around him was a plus defensively it might work. Giannis and Dame have been pretty healthy all year, and they're going to lose 7-10 fewer games than last year. Not hard to see why.
 
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Auger34

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It does seem pretty crazy that of the 3 teams everyone is discussing as their top concern (Bucks, Sixers, Heat) that two of them are in range to be our first round match up
 

benhogan

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Giannis and Dame have been pretty healthy all year, and they're going to lose 7-10 fewer games than last year. Not hard to see why.
I believe you meant WIN 7-10 fewer games than last year

Maybe it's just one game & I'm overreacting, but that video was pretty damning. A lot of it looks like an effort thing so I should slow my roll burying the regular season Bucks (but it's so damn fun;))
 

Euclis20

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I believe you meant WIN 7-10 fewer games than last year

Maybe it's just one game & I'm overreacting, but that video was pretty damning. A lot of it looks like an effort thing so I should slow my roll burying the regular season Bucks (but it's so damn fun;))
Yup misspoke. The number of people in the media and in general that are acting like this is close to business as usual for the Bucks and Celtics are completely ignoring the different paths these two teams have taken since last year. They were basically dead even last year (the Bucks won one more game), now Boston is gonna be about 8 wins better and Milwaukee is gonna be about 8 wins worse. That's a massive flip that is almost impossible without multiple major injuries, which hasn't happened.

The difference between these two teams in the standings (15 games) is about equal to the difference between the Bucks and the Nets (16 games). Not that an upset can't happen, but there just isn't an intellectually honest argument for choosing Milwaukee (or really any other EC team) over Boston in a series right now. Maybe Philly if you want to put blinders on (ignoring the recent history of Boston and Embiid) and just focus on Philly's record when Embiid plays.
 

lovegtm

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There was always a not unreasonable expectation that a large part of Dame's admittedly awful defense in Portland was a result of his situation. High scorers on teams that are not title contenders (particularly for guards) tend not to defend very well. Put them on a serious team and their effort picks up, and they can spend less energy on offense and more on defense. This was the hope for Lillard, and man has he fallen short. It's one thing to be physically limited, it's another thing to conserve energy for offense, and it's a far worse third thing to just make dumb mistake after dumb mistake. The moment where he seems to randomly just double Brunson (leaving Divincenzo wide open) is incredible, as is Doc's reaction from the bench.

Maybe he's just waiting for the playoffs to try on defense. Maybe if everyone else around him was a plus defensively it might work. Giannis and Dame have been pretty healthy all year, and they're going to lose 7-10 fewer games than last year. Not hard to see why.
There is a lot of evidence now that Dame is a bad defender who probably isn't going to get better. It's not just physical; it's also mental, and that is a lot harder to flip a switch for.
 

HomeRunBaker

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PHI with a healthy Embiid (yeah I know big if) is the biggest thing that worries me. They have some real pieces around him and were playing at a very high level before the injury.

For those worried about MIA, I don't think this year's team is like last year's team. First, Herro is going to play. :). Plus, for example, according to NBA.com, they are 28th in clutch rating at -15.7. They have some real offense issues down the stretch (as seen against PHI in the game last Thursday where MIA was up 102-94 with 6:38 left and then proceed to hit one 3P the rest of the way).
Playoff Jimmy says, “I don’t care bout no stinking regular season clutch rating. Clutch begins in late-April.”

1F80135E-8F82-4E4B-80B3-EAEF5BFF770B.jpeg
 

jablo1312

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There's a lot of moving parts still, but as I'm trying to suss out what and who to root for in the last couple of games I think:

-I'd rather play Miami then Philly in the 1st round. Embiid might be playing himself back into shape but the 76ers were looking like a Finals worthy team in November and December when he was healthy. Miami will be a worthy opponent no doubt but if I have to pick one, give me Miami and let the 6ers play the Bucks (without, or with a limited, Giannis)

-Ideally Orlando stays in the 4-5 matchup. Famous last words rooting for opponents but the chance to play them in the 2nd round would be solid.

-Philly climbing to the 3-6 matchup wouldn't be a bad outcome either. Would rather play Indiana then PHI in the 1st round, and this would set-up PHI-MIL in the 2nd round if both advance. Them climbing to the 4-5 line matchup would be not great for the Celtics, especially if they get to play Orlando in the 1st round.

All in all the C's shouldn't fear any opponent, but I'm not against rooting for the deck to break out in specific ways.
 

jmcc5400

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There's a lot of moving parts still, but as I'm trying to suss out what and who to root for in the last couple of games I think:

-I'd rather play Miami then Philly in the 1st round. Embiid might be playing himself back into shape but the 76ers were looking like a Finals worthy team in November and December when he was healthy. Miami will be a worthy opponent no doubt but if I have to pick one, give me Miami and let the 6ers play the Bucks (without, or with a limited, Giannis)

-Ideally Orlando stays in the 4-5 matchup. Famous last words rooting for opponents but the chance to play them in the 2nd round would be solid.

-Philly climbing to the 3-6 matchup wouldn't be a bad outcome either. Would rather play Indiana then PHI in the 1st round, and this would set-up PHI-MIL in the 2nd round if both advance. Them climbing to the 4-5 line matchup would be not great for the Celtics, especially if they get to play Orlando in the 1st round.

All in all the C's shouldn't fear any opponent, but I'm not against rooting for the deck to break out in specific ways.
I'd like Philly to climb to 6 and have Miami win the 7-8 game. I'll take my chances with the Pacers, Cavs and Magic until the conference finals.
 

lovegtm

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Heat or Magic is getting very, very likely. If the Sixers beat Orlando tomorrow, that's what we're getting, barring some Hawks/Bulls hijinks.
 

Euclis20

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Heat or Magic is getting very, very likely. If the Sixers beat Orlando tomorrow, that's what we're getting, barring some Hawks/Bulls hijinks.
If the Magic tumble all the way down to the final play in game and they face Atlanta with Trae Young (who both raises their ceiling and lowers their floor), man that's a tossup at best for Orlando. Orlando has been solidly better than Atlanta all year, but they've lost 3 of 4 (losses to Charlotte, Houston and Milwaukee without Giannis) and 6 of 10. Say what you will about Atlanta, but they (and Young) are not afraid of the moment. If Orlando falls into the play-in, they are in big big trouble.
 

lovegtm

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If the Magic tumble all the way down to the final play in game and they face Atlanta with Trae Young (who both raises their ceiling and lowers their floor), man that's a tossup at best for Orlando. Orlando has been solidly better than Atlanta all year, but they've lost 3 of 4 (losses to Charlotte, Houston and Milwaukee without Giannis) and 6 of 10. Say what you will about Atlanta, but they (and Young) are not afraid of the moment. If Orlando falls into the play-in, they are in big big trouble.
Everyone is in trouble in the play-in by definition--last year's Miami darlings barely escaped the 2nd play-in game.

I do think that Orlando would have a good shot to knock off Miami in the 1st play-in.
 

slamminsammya

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Miami is inherently more dangerous than Orlando due to Butler, but i think orlando’s defense is possibly the strongest in the east besides Bostons, and probably the most annoying in a playoff series.
 

Ed Hillel

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Miami is inherently more dangerous than Orlando due to Butler, but i think orlando’s defense is possibly the strongest in the east besides Bostons, and probably the most annoying in a playoff series.
Knicks with healthy OG have the toughest D. Not sure that’s health you can rely on, however.
 

Euclis20

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He's back, and Philly has a nice lead over Orlando.

At this point I don't see how the answer isn't Philly, even if you think Embiid will break down and/or crash and burn in the playoffs as he always does. They've got the longest winning streak in the league (which not coincidentally started about the time he returned), he doesn't look 100% but is still good enough to average an efficient 30/8/5 since returning (and he's at 26/10/7 halfway through the 3rd quarter today, in what is essentially a playoff game for Philly). The momentum arrow is pointed down for most of the Eastern Conference, but not for them. I'd very much like them to finish 6th, and Milwaukee to slide to 3rd. Win-win.
 

Ed Hillel

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Wow, surprised he came back. Sixers might get as easy a draw as the 6 seed you can get, too.

Edit - Oh, nm Knicks jumped to 3!
 

lars10

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Wow, surprised he came back. Sixers might get as easy a draw as the 6 seed you can get, too.

Edit - Oh, nm Knicks jumped to 3!
Embiid seems to be following the mold of NBA players that have rushed back in season to try and get into the playoffs.. only to injure themselves again and change the course of their career.
 

snowmanny

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According to that tweet none of the 5-8 teams clinches the 5 seed simply by winning their game.

Edit-though it says Magic is 5 seed if they beat Bucks and Pacers lose to Hawks, then later says 76ers are 5 seed if they beat Nets and Pacers lose to Hawks. So something is off.
Am I reading incorrectly?
 

SteveF

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According to that tweet none of the 5-8 teams clinches the 5 seed simply by winning their game.

Edit-though it says Magic is 5 seed if they beat Bucks and Pacers lose to Hawks, then later says 76ers are 5 seed if they beat Nets and Pacers lose to Hawks. So something is off.
Am I reading incorrectly?
Orlando wins a 3 team tiebreaker assuming they win the SE division with Philly and Indy, loses a two way tiebreaker with Philly (HtH 0-4), and wins a two way tiebreaker with Indy (HtH 2-1). The way they aren't the 5 seed by winning is Indiana losing and Philly winning.
I think you're reading it correctly and it's wrong. If Indiana loses, the Magic will need Philly to also lose to get the 5.