Better - but I think if you're trying to make the case this was apparent in the off-season, you have to explain why the Sox knew (or should have known) there would be a lackluster performance on a case-by-case basis. For example, Barnes was problematic based on his 2021 finish, but unless there was a reason to think he wouldn't bounce back, was it unreasonable for the Sox to expect him to be a contributor? On the other hand, Diekman - was he what they should have expected or not? And why? Why did the Sox expect Brasier to have his worst year? Etc.
FWIW, I always think this is fair, and good for discussion. It's also why I spend so much time outlining why I think the team (as presently constructed AND with what is available remaining in FA is so flawed). The most likely outcome of this "high error bar" team, as I think Speier would put it is half the stuff that I think goes wrong goes wrong, half the stuff that someone thinks goes right will go right, and we finish with something between 75-85 wins and most likely miss the playoffs, or possibly make the last WC slot and get bounced before the ALCS.
Since I've spent plenty of time outlining why I think Sale and Paxton are not good bets to place on being healthy and effective pitchers and why I don't think the Sox should assume they will be, I'll talk a little about the bullpen.
In general, I admit MY theory is that you should pay for a closer when you can (whether in terms of money or assets). I do think there is something to a) allowing a manager to have a guy he knows he's going to pitch in the 9th and to mix and match the rest of the pieces to get there; b) slotting everyone down a rung and c) having guys know their roles. I don't know that this can be quantified in statistical analysis, but it's something I believe. Especially over the course of a 162 game season. When you get to the playoffs, it's different because you can do what we did in 2018, for instance, with shorter rotations. That can't be done over the course of a full season, though.
As such, there is no way I'd have paid nearly what we gave Barnes in 2021 ($9.375m AAV), no way I'd have given Martin what we just did ($8.75m), and no way I'd combine to spend $5.5m on Rodriguez, Brasier and Taylor. In general, I think bullpen arms are so volatile that I'd literally go league minimum / minor league deals / prospects breaking into the bigs on every single bullpen piece besides the closer.
The only exception is talking about a prospect / young pitcher whom comes up and is elite, where you then buy out their arb years (ie Whitlock) with options. As guys age I think giving significant money to anything but an experienced closer is a bad allocation of resources if you're operating with $LTT as a budget.
As it stands and with what we've done, I think the 'pen is:
Jansen (no argument giving him $16m and two years). He's not the guy he was, but he's a reasonable bet to continue being a "dependable" closer for two years (ie he's probably going to blow 4 saves but convert 30 of them).
Barnes ($9.375m) - No way I'd give a 30 year old non-closer RP that deal, but we did and we're stuck with him.
Martin ($8.75m) - See above. In 2019 he had a 3.40ERA and a 1.7 bWAR. In 2021 he had a 3.95ERA and had a .4 bWAR. In 2022 he had a 3.05ERA and a 1.0 bWAR. He's probably going to be fine as a RP. But I think betting an $8.75m cap hit the next two years on a non-closer RP whom will be 37 and 38 is too much of a risk for me, and I think the money would be better used elsewhere.
Rodriguez ($2m) - See above.
Schreiber (pre-arb) - He was good last year. He is pre-arb, so no real risk. If someone would give up decent prospect for him, I'd move him rather than assume a 2.20ERA is the new norm for will be 29 year old whom had ERAs above 6.00 at 25 and 26. But I can't imagine he has any value to another team. If he does, again, I'd move him. Since he doesn't, why not, he gets sent to Pawtucket / DFA'ed if he goes back to sucking.
Brasier ($2.3m arb projection) - There is no reason for him to be on the roster. Career 4.14ERA guy. Prosecution exhibit A about the variance of relief pitchers.
Josh Taylor ($1.1m arb projection) - See above, especially coming off a season in which he couldn't pitch in the big leagues.
What I'd rather do:
Jansen - $16m. No problem there.
Whitlock / Houck - $4.7m. Hope one is Papelbon. This was a good extension from Bloom, even if Whitlock gets hurt, a good risk.
*Barnes - $9.375m. Sunk cost, no choice but to keep him.
Schreiber (pre arb). Exactly the kind of guy for middle relief. (If someone actually believes in him, I'd trade him).*
ZKelly (pre arb). Costs nothing. If he's good, great, if not, he's back in Pawtucket / DFA'ed.
TToussaint ($minor league deal). Because I've heard of him before and I assume he'd take a minor league deal since he was non-tendered. If not, replace him with someone who will.
JKoenig ($minor league deal). See above.
*DStrotman ($minor league deal). This is if someone would actually give you a good prospect for Schreiber, but I doubt it.
Why I'd rather do that - again, I think relief pitchers are so volatile that the only one I'd pay for is a closer or young prospects whom come up and show excellent results / stuff (Whitlock).
The moves I've outlined would mean no Martin, Rodriguez, Brasier or Taylor makes that $40.35m below $LTT based on where we are now. I'd have used that money to have extended Devers and resigned Bogaerts (to his SD deal, if necessary).
Because I'd FAR rather have:
Yoshida - LF, Story - 2b, extended Devers - 3b, Bogaerts - SS, Casas - 1b, Turner - DH, Verdugo - RF, Hernandez - CF, McGuire - C. Rotation: Pivetta, Bello, Houck / Whitlock, Mata, Walter. BP - Jansen, Whitlock/Houck, Schreiber, ZKelly, Toussaint, Koenig, Barnes (Toussaint and Koenig can be literally anyone on a minor league deal)
As opposed to:
Hernandez - CF, Yoshida - LF, Story - MI1, lame duck Devers - 3b, Turner - DH, Casas - 1b, Verdugo - RF; SegurAndrus - MI2, McGuire - C. Rotation: Pivetta, Bello, Houck/Whitlock, lets say Eovaldi and Wacha. BP - Jansen, Barnes, Martin, Rodriguez, Schreiber, Brasier and Taylor.
If you have the Braves or Astros core locked down, sure, spend on some BP arms. Our core is Trevor Story. Not at all similar.