Unless they get lucky on a trade or hit the Durant jackpot, next year is going to be a tread water year regardless.
Propose Your Celtics Draft Pick Trades Here
- Thread starter zenter
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I don't know about that. It's a young team, with more potential to improve simply due to youth, and not having to deal with David Lee on the roster. Small improvements helped them move from 40 to 48 wins - I think it's not unreasonable to hope they can move up a few more wins, even just bringing back the same roster (less Evan Turner ideally).
But a few more wins doesn't really change the calculus. Barring something unforeseen, they're going to be a team with a 1st or 2nd round glass ceiling. Sadly, there isn't a single player who they can draft at 3 who can make a big impact next year.
I would be pretty surprised if the frontcourt isn't a big issue again next year. Hope Danny can work some magic but I'm not really expecting many big moves this year given the factors working against us.
Mike Petraglia @Trags 7s7 seconds agoWaltham, MA
As it is now, Celtics are likely to make their pick at No. 3 and the Jazz are not biting on a Celtics push for Hayward.
As it is now, Celtics are likely to make their pick at No. 3 and the Jazz are not biting on a Celtics push for Hayward.
If the Jazz really rejected Bledsoe & #4, I wonder what the Celtics offered to be competitive. I don't think Johnson, Smart & #3 does it. I don't think adding #16 does either. 2018 BKN pick? Quickly this gets into very expensive territory.
Yeah, I was just about to say the same thing. Though the reports I've seen have only said "Bledsoe and a lottery pick", which could be #4 or #13. Either way, unless Bledsoe's recovery outlook is worse than I thought, Jazz's asking price is probably too rich for my blood.
I'm sincerely hoping that the owners don't push for fireworks and that Ainge is allowed to run things back for one more year. Because shooting their wad on a second/third banana is going to backfire if Hayward can't recruit a top ten guy.
I'd love Hayward, but I'm not giving up that package for him. I'm definitely not giving up any 17 or 18 BKN picks either as those are more valuable than these picks are.
The trade for George Hill tells me that the Jazz are aiming for the playoffs this year. It would take a huge offer to pry Hayward loose now. Maybe at the trade deadline if the Jazz are out of contention.
Of course it is still June, so nearly every team is aiming for the playoffs. And of course the rumor/leak of the hour is that the C's will stand pat. That messaging only increases the chances that another team will blink and up their offer for #3.
Tim Welsh is on Sirius right now talking Celtics. He repeats that Philly wants Dunn but how much realistically can Philly give them for #3? He says the 48 win season overshadowed their weaknesses and one of them is PG. He wants the Celtics to take Kris Dunn because he is the most NBA-ready player at one of their biggest needs. Says it's a space game and he can finish at the rim. He comes in as a man and is an upgrade over anybody they have at PG. Also says that Boston wouldn't do Okafor for #3 right now but if push came to shove that they might do it because of his post scoring.
I just don't see that happening. I think Bradley and 23 for Okafor is a better trade for both teams. Bradley can play off ball (Simmons is really going to be the PG) and defend the other teams best perimeter player. Celtics clear up some of the backcourt logjam (I am assuming they take Dunn at 3) and replace Sully with someone more gifted and on a rookie contract.
Including Nerlens Noel instead of Jahlil Okafor would be upgrading their offer.
Would it? I like him more as a player, but already burned through 3 years of his rookie deal as opposed to 1.
Maybe looking for a third team that will take what Philly is offering and give Danny what he wants.
I'd rather get Noel who is a much better fit for how the Celtics play and then if he works out you match any RFA offer due to the ton of cap space available.
Interesting convo b/w Matt Moore, the guys at CelticsBlog and Kevin O'Connor on twitter which i'm too lazy to post all the tweets for.
Moore said he thinks Noel and a 1st makes sense for 3 as value, but that Celtics don't need picks.
CB guys thinks a future pick would be a deal BOS makes.
O'Connor floats Noel and Saric for 3, which Moore retweeted. (O'Connor thinks BOS has to add a piece there).
My predicition: Noel gets moved tonight to someone and most PHI fans are angry and say they sold low.
Moore said he thinks Noel and a 1st makes sense for 3 as value, but that Celtics don't need picks.
CB guys thinks a future pick would be a deal BOS makes.
O'Connor floats Noel and Saric for 3, which Moore retweeted. (O'Connor thinks BOS has to add a piece there).
My predicition: Noel gets moved tonight to someone and most PHI fans are angry and say they sold low.
Talk to me why Noel for 3 doesn't work for the Celtics. Isn't he the kind of big you want defending the rim and cleaning up rebounds in today's NBA? I realize he's not a shooter.
I don't think that it doesn't work, it's just remaining contract length is different--years of control.
I think it works but I want to also bleed Philly for as much as I could get if they want Dunn that much.
Because of his contract it's going to be a value issue. I think Noel is a player who works for the Celtics and I'd guess Ainge would want him as part of a package, the question is how much more than Noel is the 3 worth.
Also Ainge has no real impetus to make that trade until the last minute (or even after he's drafted Dunn) if he is still working on possibilities for a star packaging the 3rd.
Noel and Saric for 3 would be a steal for Boston.
Everybody realizes this is Kris Dunn the Sixers want, right?
Everybody realizes this is Kris Dunn the Sixers want, right?
So if we need more than just Noel (or Okafor) for the 3, what would get that done? Swap of next year's picks? 2017 Philly pick for #16 this year? Other?
Trading 5 years of Dunn for potentially only 1 of Noel isn't smart. More is needed to go to the Celtics.
1st round draft picks this year are going to be historically underpaid due to the rise in the cap and flat rookie wage scale. The ability to carry a potential star at 4%-5% of the cap 4-5 years down the line is enormous for a team's financial flexibility. In addition, this may pressure some players into signing team-friendly extensions after year 3. The importance of the economics of this draft haven't been highlighted enough IMO.
top 10 somewhere probably. And it's a better tool than for Okafor or Noel because you get his full contract.
When was the last time an RFA ended up signing an offer sheet that wasn't matched?
Any team that trades for Noel has him for 5 years, 4 of which will be at the market rate.
What does Minnesota and New Orleans have that we would want for #3 (realistically)? It's probably going to be a trade with Philly or nothing, right?
When has the cap ever gone up this much before? We are in uncharted territory, you have to price in the possibility that you lose Noel.
Zack LaVine and Dieng from Minnesota? Jrue Holiday/Tyreke Evans from New Orleans?
Ill defer to HRB for the confirmation, but I'd have to imagine Dunn would be thrilled to death to go to NO. Him and Davis would destroy teams on the pick and roll. That may be the best place for Dunn to go, career wise.
They pick 5th and 6th, so I'm thinking swap picks plus a sweetener. Rubio, Evans, future first...
What does the increased cap have to do with it? You still have the ability to match any offer.
Unless the argument you're making is that more money to spend will lead to teams being unable to properly value players, and Noel will get an offer that makes no sense to match. I suppose there's some chance of that, but I'd argue that the RFA market has been incredibly good to teams over the years, and it wasn't until teams knew that the cap was rising that players began to get overpaid (with the full knowledge that those overpays would be closer to market rate under the new cap figures). In other words, the market for a guy like Noel under the new cap has already been set by guys like Tristan Thompson, and that's what the C's or anybody else should realistically be expecting to spend on a specialist big man.
Minny has a lot of interesting pieces including (LaVine, Muhammad, Dieng) also both of them can do a trade up with their pick or send their own pick and pieces to a third team.
I don't think that makes any sense.
In one ear, I have you telling me that Noel's going to end up getting a max deal (or hugely overpaid, at least).
In the other, I've got nighthob telling me it's a buyer's market for centers and Noel has no value.
Who is this hypothetical team that overpays Noel to such an extent?
When did he say that? It's a split market for centers, if you can defend the rim and switch on the perimeter.... very valuable, if you can't switch or protect the rim... not great. (Basically in a nutshell why Noel is attractive even w/ 1 year left, and why Okafor is less). The obvious answer here is that Biyombo is about to get paid huge money if that's true, Noel is looking at a big payday come 2017.
On the Noel trade value front:
The 2017-18 cap is expected to jump to $108 million. There are arguably two Centers ahead of Noel who will be free agents next year (Gobert and Steven Adams). And while the free agent class is pretty loaded, Noel is arguably in the top 15 of free agents and could be considered as high as the top 10 depending on his performance next year.
As of today, including cap holds, only three teams have less than $20 million in cap space in 2017-18. Of course, that doesn't factor in this off-seasons signings, which will drop those figures significantly, but again, that figure includes cap holds on a ton of players who will not be re-signed and most like relinquished as part of the free agent process.
The idea that Nerlens Noel gets maxed next year by one of the 30 teams in the league is not out of the question. The question is if the Celtics value Noel as a max player.
A couple of things, and I admit there's some parsing of words here.
1. Nighthob said that over the course of 18 posts in the Sixers thread. You can check it out for yourself, depending on your constitution for mindless garbage.
2. Agree completely on your take on the market for centers. The only thing I take issue with is the Biymombo at "huge money". He is going to make a lot of money, yes. It's going to sound like a lot more than what we're used to. Probably somewhere in the ballpark of 13-16 a year. And while that sounds like a lot, it's actually just a (roughly) 25% increase on what a solid center would have made in UFA otherwise. In other words, in terms of the percentage of the cap that players are paid, their value's going to remain pretty similar. So while a Biyombo (or Noel) will make more actual dollars, teams aren't suddenly going to offer them 25% of their payroll.
3. I take any report today with a huge grain of salt. I agree that I don't think Noel necessarily nets a high lotto pick, but I also think a low lotto pick would be a steal.
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I think this is, actually, completely out of the question.
Max deals are going to become far more rare. In fact, the reason they've been so much more common lately is because the entire league knew those deals were about to be bargains. The entire league isn't suddenly going to lose it's mind and stop understanding how the salary cap works or what percentages are. They'll still understand the value of a defense first (only?) center, and the market for centers will still be impacted by what guys like Tristan Thompson, Enes Kanter, Robin Lopez, etc. are getting paid.
The higher cap means that players will make more in terms of real, actual money. I do not think it's going to have any impact on how teams perceive their value in terms of percentage of the cap.
I think we are going to have to agree to disagree. All teams want to maximize their payroll and roster construction. I think Noel has to potential to be valued by at least one team as a max player and all it takes is one. I really just do not think you can discount the possibility entirely and thus, you have to price it in to his trade value.