coremiller said:
When people are ranking teams, are they doing it based on: a) projected playoff seeding b) best resume so far, c) "best" team in the sense of who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, or d) something else?
A long time ago I wrote some code that ranks teams simply by who-beat-whom. The way it works is:
(1) rank teams 1 - 32 by win %
(2) going through each team's schedule, award them 1 pt if the beat the 32nd ranked team, 2 pts if they beat the 31st, 3 pts for the 30th... 31 pts if they beat the 2nd ranked team, and 32 points if they beat the top-ranked team, -1 pt for losing to the 1st ranked team, -2 pts for losing to the 2nd ranked team... -32 pts for losing to the 32nd ranked team.
(3) re-rank teams 1 - 32 by pts.
(4) if any team's ranking has changed, return to step (2).
I don't usually share the results because they are of limited use, but it does speak a little to the "best resume so far" question. The table shows rank, team, record, total points after iteration converges, a list of the ranks of the teams they beat -- lost to. NFC teams in bold.
1 ARI 8- 1___150.00_____ 11 16 6 24 30 3 7 15 -- 2
2 DEN 7- 2___129.50_____ 10 4 1 27 6 11 30 -- 8 5
3 PHI 7- 2___84.00_____ 31 10 24 15 16 18 26 -- 6 1
4 KC 6- 3___79.50_____ 13 5 11 15 27 12 -- 28 2 6
5 NE 7- 2___79.00_____ 22 30 17 12 27 25 2 -- 13 4
6 SF 5- 4___70.00_____ 7 3 4 15 23 -- 25 1 2 15
7 DAL 7- 3___61.00_____ 28 15 23 18 8 16 31 -- 6 24 1
8 SEA 6- 3___53.00_____ 14 2 24 26 30 16 -- 11 7 15
9 DET 7- 2___49.00_____ 16 14 27 22 23 29 13 -- 26 12
10 IND 6- 3___43.50_____ 31 28 19 18 17 16 -- 2 3 21
11 SD 5- 4___37.00_____ 8 12 31 27 30 -- 1 4 2 13
12 BUF 5- 4___31.50_____ 25 13 9 22 27 -- 11 18 5 4
13 MIA 5- 4___24.50_____ 5 30 25 31 11 -- 12 4 14 9
14 GB 6- 3___20.00_____ 27 25 22 13 26 25 -- 8 9 23
15 STL 3- 6___10.00_____ 32 8 6 -- 22 7 3 6 4 1
16 NYG 3- 6___-10.00_____ 18 24 29 -- 9 1 3 7 10 8
17 CIN 6- 4___-14.50_____ 19 29 28 26 19 31 -- 5 10 20 26
18 HOU 4- 5___-18.50_____ 24 30 12 28 -- 16 7 10 21 3
19 BAL 6- 4___-22.00_____ 21 20 26 32 29 28 -- 17 10 17 21
20 CLE 6- 3___-23.00_____ 23 28 21 30 32 17 -- 21 19 31
21 PIT 6- 4___-24.00_____ 20 26 31 18 10 19 -- 19 32 20 27
22 MIN 4- 5___-30.50_____ 15 29 32 24 -- 5 23 14 9 12
23 NO 4- 5___-33.00_____ 22 32 14 26 -- 29 20 7 9 6
24 WAS 3- 6___-35.00_____ 31 28 7 -- 18 3 16 8 1 22
25 CHI 3- 6___-46.50_____ 6 27 29 -- 12 14 26 13 5 14
26 CAR 4- 7___-55.50_____ 32 9 25 17 -- 21 19 17 14 8 23 3
27 NYJ 2- 8___-66.00_____ 30 21 -- 14 25 9 11 2 5 12 4
28 TEN 2- 7___-84.00_____ 4 31 -- 7 17 10 20 24 18 19
29 ATL 3- 6___-96.00_____ 23 32 32 -- 17 22 16 25 19 9
30 OAK 0- 9___-104.50_____ -- 27 18 5 13 11 1 20 8 2
31 JAC 1- 9___-120.50_____ 20 -- 3 24 10 11 21 28 13 17 7
32 TB 1- 8___-170.50_____ 21 -- 26 15 29 23 19 22 20 29
For Carolina and Cincinnati (who tied) I gave them both a win and a loss against each other. Some point totals include half a point. This is because the iteration usually (pseudo) converges very quickly to a degeneracy between two states. When this happens I use the average of the two point totals.
A couple of things stick out a bit. The Rams and Giants have had tough schedules. The AFC North hasn't.