Ranking the teams in the AFC

[ivanvamp]

The Beasts

1. Denver. I hate to do this because I think the Pats are a little bit better if everyone is healthy. But I am not sure when the last time was the Pats stayed healthy. And if they play in Denver, the Broncos would have to be the favorite. Defending AFC champs improved their team, but one more Welker concussion could end his season (and maybe career), and that would be a huge blow to his team. Have to rank them #1 at this point though.

2. New England. Really, 1A. I think they improved considerably his offseason, and they're a legit Super Bowl contender. Again, I think in the end it comes down to health and home field advantage between them and Denver.


The Next Level

3. Cincinnati. They have the talent. Can Dalton raise his game?
4. Kansas City. Solid team. A lot rides on the arm of Smith.
5. Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is a star, but they've been fortunate the past couple of seasons.
6. Baltimore. I think we will see a return to playoff form for them.


Hopefuls

7. NY Jets. Excellent defense. Can their QB play improve enough to get me to the playoffs?
8. Pittsburgh. Rebound season?
9. Miami. Might be an 8-8 or 9-7 team.
10. San Diego. Coming off a nice season last year. Take the next step?
11. Tennessee. Could be solid.


Pretenders

12. Houston. Not sold on their QB situation but they have tons of talent elsewhere.
13. Cleveland. Nice young pieces. Not sure about Manziel, however. Hoyer gets first crack.
14. Buffalo. Just not very good.
15. Oakland. Just not very good.
16. Jacksonville. They will be better than last year, but that's not saying much.

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

Generally agree with your list, except the Jets are way too high and the Chargers are way too low. The Jets have a horrific offense, mediocre linebackers, and JAG corners. Rex has proven adept at papering over weak spots on defense, but, as we've seen with BB, scheming only gets you so far. If you can't cover, you can't cover.

The Chargers have the makings of an excellent offense, which is generally enough these days to get you a wildcard. The defense was no great shakes last year, but it played much better down the stretch.

 

[Saints Rest]

I would probably swap Houston and NYJets.  I expect a big bounce-back from the Texans.  I also would likely swap SD and Pitt.  I think the AFC NOrth is the division that is the deepest from top to bottom (or more aptly stated, the one with the tightest cluster).  I wouldn't be surprised if that division ends up with a winner at 9-7 and the bottom team at 7-9.
 
I think the West or East will have the widest range form top to bottom.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Jets at #7 is certifiably bonkers (no offense ivanahump -- I see it as a momentary lapse in judgment in an otherwise fine post). 
 
A good DL with an aging LB and perhaps the AFC's worst or bottom-3 secondary do not make an "excellent" defense. I am thinking Derek Carr may rip them to shreds come Sunday to the shock of everyone at the Meadowlands.

 

[Tony C]

Can't wait for football season, and this sort of ranking just wets my schoolboy anticipation. Solid overall:
 
-agreed on Denver/NE as 1/1A.
-I'd have Cincy as a top tier 3rd team -- they have it all but a great QB, and Dalton is the sort of good QB that does just fine in the regular season.
-I like Smith (and Andy Reid), but I think KC takes a step back.
-Indy is overrated, yet plays in a weak division....will seem better than they are. And, frankly, wouldn't be surprised if they are challenged if someone in their division moves past mediocre.
-Agree with MarcSullivan on both the Jets and the Chargers. I don't think the Jets have an excellent defense. 19th in points allowed last year (granted that probably includes some pick 6s from Smith). A great DL is less important than a great secondary in today's NFL, and the Jets are weak in DBs. I think they'll struggle to get to 8-8
-I'm with you in wondering if San Diego will take the next step. They looked awfully good at the end of last season, seem to be very well coached and added some parts.
-Intrigued by the AFC South -- you're right that Houston has a lot of talent but QB will hold them back (Mallett!!), Tennessee has talent too, and Locker shows flashes, and actually think Jacksonville is finally headed in the right direction, too, though obviously still have a ways to go.
-I admit if I had to choose a shocker it'd be that Oakland will be .500. That'd depend on Carr emerging, obviously, but I was always impressed last year by how hard they played for Allen and they have some decent talent if they get a QB.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

-Agree with MarcSullivan on both the Jets and the Chargers. I don't think the Jets have an excellent defense. 19th in points allowed last year (granted that probably includes some pick 6s from Smith). A great DL is less important than a great secondary in today's NFL, and the Jets are weak in DBs. I think they'll struggle to get to 8-8

 
Jets DL is considered to be a top run-stuffing unit but not necessarily a pass rushing unit. They were 22nd in the entire league in pass rush measures via PFF. 
 
Another reason why they faired so poorly against any type of receiver other than RBs (19th against #1, 13th against #2, 13th against #3+, 19th against TEs (good news for Gronk & Wright): http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2013
 
I do think the Bills have enough talent at multiple spots to complete, but Marron really is sinking that ship. Oh and Marvin Lewis is the 2nd longest tenured coach in the NFL -- shocker!

 

[86spike]

KC's O-Line is pretty much horrible. That spells trouble for both the passing and running games.

I see them winning only 6-9 games.

SD will be Denver's competition for the AFC West this year, not KC.

 

[dcmissle]

The AFC North is a muddle to me. I think the Ravens will have a good season, but the Bengals are talented and I would not sleep on the Steelers. Browns have strengths, but where is the QB play coming from?

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

SD will be Denver's competition for the AFC West this year, not KC.

 
I'm on the camp that SD is in for a regression this year. 2013 version was an inconsistent unit that exceeded expectations but also lost to the Texans, Titans, Redskins, and the Raiders (albeit early). 
 
I can easily count 9 losses (@ Cards, vs. Seahawks, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, vs. Pats, vs. Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs) with an absolutely brutal end-of-season schedule (@ Ravens, vs. Pats, vs. Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs). Hell even the one before (vs Rams) isn't a gimme.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I, too, think San Diego is better than KC, and if things break right, they could be the the 3rd best team behind Denver and New England.  

 

[j-man]

The Beasts

1. Denver. I hate to do this because I think the Pats are a little bit better if everyone is healthy. But I am not sure when the last time was the Pats stayed healthy. And if they play in Denver, the Broncos would have to be the favorite. Defending AFC champs improved their team, but one more Welker concussion could end his season (and maybe career), and that would be a huge blow to his team. Have to rank them #1 at this point though.

2. New England. Really, 1A. I think they improved considerably his offseason, and they're a legit Super Bowl contender. Again, I think in the end it comes down to health and home field advantage between them and Denver.


The Next Level

3. Cincinnati. They have the talent. Can Dalton raise his game?
4. Kansas City. Solid team. A lot rides on the arm of Smith.
5. Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is a star, but they've been fortunate the past couple of seasons.
6. Baltimore. I think we will see a return to playoff form for them.


Hopefuls

7. NY Jets. Excellent defense. Can their QB play improve enough to get me to the playoffs?
8. Pittsburgh. Rebound season?
9. Miami. Might be an 8-8 or 9-7 team.
10. San Diego. Coming off a nice season last year. Take the next step?
11. Tennessee. Could be solid.


Pretenders

12. Houston. Not sold on their QB situation but they have tons of talent elsewhere.
13. Cleveland. Nice young pieces. Not sure about Manziel, however. Hoyer gets first crack.
14. Buffalo. Just not very good.
15. Oakland. Just not very good.
16. Jacksonville. They will be better than last year, but that's not saying much.

KC is way too high  they are a 7 win team at best 

 

[j-man]

Jets at #7 is certifiably bonkers (no offense ivanahump -- I see it as a momentary lapse in judgment in an otherwise fine post). 
 
A good DL with an aging LB and perhaps the AFC's worst or bottom-3 secondary do not make an "excellent" defense. I am thinking Derek Carr may rip them to shreds come Sunday to the shock of everyone at the Meadowlands.

Jets at 7 is not bonkers  better Off  Miami Twice Buffalo Twice they match up well aga NE  they can win 9 games    but they plob need to sweep miami buff to do so 

 

[mauf]

5. Indianapolis. Andrew Luck is a star, but they've been fortunate the past couple of seasons.

Their good fortune will continue -- divisional home-and-homes with Jacksonville, Houston and Tennessee, plus a round-robin with the NFC East. I'm surprised their over/under isn't higher -- I'm expecting a 12-4 record and a first-round bye.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

1/1A - I think Denver and NE can be argued back and forth but either way, they're the top of the AFC.

3 - I've got Indy behind them. High powered offense with an underrated defense.

4 - Cincy is very similar to Indy only with a better D and a less skilled QB.

Those are your division winners.

5 - KC has a great defense and some playmakers on offense like Charles, Kelce, Bowe and De'anthony. Agreed that Smith has to play well in order for them to succeed.

6 - I'm going to go with a surprise here and say Houston. Great up front on both sides of the ball. They can run, and their pass rush is now terrifying. That's a good playoff recipe.

There are your Wildcards.

Teams that have a shot:

7 - Baltimore has some question marks but a revamped offense might help turn things around. I still think they barely miss the playoffs.

8 - San Diego has a potent offense but the D, especially up front, could be lacking.

9 - Tennessee has talent on both sides of the ball. Locker needs to live up to his potential. Ray Horton's defensive scheme could make this team a threat.

10 - Miami if Wallace and Tanny finally find a rapport then watch out. Defense is good but they need to take advantage of scoring opportunities.

11 - I'm probably underrating Pitt, but I think Big Ben is in decline and the defense isn't what it once was. That being said Antonio Brown is a legit receiver and they do have a couple of guys on the defensive side that can get it done. It's just not enough.

12 - Oakland may surprise some people this year. Upgraded defense and a solid offense with Carr starting at QB.

Wait until next year - otherwise known as the land without a QB

13 - Buffalo has decent defense and some legit talent on offense. EJ Manuel is god awful though. This team is a QB away from turning some heads.

14 - Cleveland has a very solid defense but who knows what they are offensively. No Gordon gives them no elite threat on that side of the ball. The Hoyer/Manziel circus is going to be mind numbing. Same old Browns I guess.

15 - The Jets don't have much of anything. A beefy d line is great but the rest of the defense is non existent and the offense is horrific. Eric Decker and the shell of Chris Johnson aren't enough to salvage this mess.

16 - The Jags might be starting to rebuild, but if their FO is going to start Chad frickin Henne over the more talented Bortles just because he's a rookie they deserve to be here. Justin Blackmons idiocy hasn't helped either. Allen Hurns anyone?

 

[SumnerH]

Jets at 7 is not bonkers  better Off  Miami Twice Buffalo Twice they match up well aga NE  they can win 9 games    but they plob need to sweep miami buff to do so 

 
Post better.  
 
Punctuation and spelling and complete sentences matter.

 

[dbn]

 
Post better.  
 
Punctuation and spelling and complete sentences matter.

 
I believe j-man has a condition that makes typing difficult. Correct me if I'm wrong, j-man. 

 

[SumnerH]

My bad.  Explanation here:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/82196-2014-fa-building-19-opened-for-bizzness/page-20#entry5320101
Sorry about that, j-man.

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

1. Denver 14-2 (not just Manning - they're loaded everywhere)
2. Cincinnati 12-4 (Dalton is ready to move up)
3. Tennessee 11-5 (Locker has to stay healthy, but I think he can be very good)
4. Miami 11-5 (a better o-line and decent players throughout - they'd be a contender with a better qb)
5. Indianapolis 10-6 (too inconsistent to win much more - the games with the Titans will be interesting)
6. New England 9-7 (a lot is riding on Brady's game returning to elite based on better receivers, but that's not a given)
7. Baltimore 9-7 (Flacco dropped a lot last season, and I think it could be for real)
8. San Diego 9-7 (Rivers is great, but the rest of the team has holes and the secondary is awful)
9. Buffalo 7-9 (good defense - while Orton was signed as a backup, they may be forced to use him)
10. Oakland 7-9 (improving, though going with Carr is taking a big chance)
11. Houston 6-10 (a little bit of a bounce-back, but Fitzgerald has too low an upside)
12. New York Jets 5-11 (maybe I just want Buffalo out of the cellar for once)
13. Pittsburgh 5-11 (they don't scare people any more)
14. Cleveland 4-12 (no team has ever has seven straight years with a range of just two wins, the Browns have been 4-12 or 5-11 six straight - Manziel gets the reins very early, but struggles)
15. Kansas City 3-13 (I wanted to believe that Alex Smith's revival in San Francisco was real, but last year was smoke and mirrors)
16. Jacksonville 3-13 (just a poorly run franchise)

 

[TheoShmeo]

1. Denver 14-2 (not just Manning - they're loaded everywhere)
2. Cincinnati 12-4 (Dalton is ready to move up)
3. Tennessee 11-5 (Locker has to stay healthy, but I think he can be very good)
4. Miami 11-5 (a better o-line and decent players throughout - they'd be a contender with a better qb)
5. Indianapolis 10-6 (too inconsistent to win much more - the games with the Titans will be interesting)
6. New England 9-7 (a lot is riding on Brady's game returning to elite based on better receivers, but that's not a given)
7. Baltimore 9-7 (Flacco dropped a lot last season, and I think it could be for real)
8. San Diego 9-7 (Rivers is great, but the rest of the team has holes and the secondary is awful)
9. Buffalo 7-9 (good defense - while Orton was signed as a backup, they may be forced to use him)
10. Oakland 7-9 (improving, though going with Carr is taking a big chance)
11. Houston 6-10 (a little bit of a bounce-back, but Fitzgerald has too low an upside)
12. New York Jets 5-11 (maybe I just want Buffalo out of the cellar for once)
13. Pittsburgh 5-11 (they don't scare people any more)
14. Cleveland 4-12 (no team has ever has seven straight years with a range of just two wins, the Browns have been 4-12 or 5-11 six straight - Manziel gets the reins very early, but struggles)
15. Kansas City 3-13 (I wanted to believe that Alex Smith's revival in San Francisco was real, but last year was smoke and mirrors)
16. Jacksonville 3-13 (just a poorly run franchise)

Points for original thinking but a few questions follow.
 
4 - A better o-line?  Miami is starting 5 guys who have never played together before.  Why and how is the o-line better?  And how good is it?
 
6- Agree that people are assuming that the Pats receivers will be better and that is not a given, but they won 12 last year with rookies, Gronk hurt for much of the season and no one to take the place of Hernandez, even in name.  What explains the 3 game fall off with a likely improved offense and Revis added to the D?
 
15. That's an even bigger fall off and it's hard to understand given last year's performance and the roster they seemingly have.  Smith looked like more than smoke and mirrors last year to me. 
 
As for me, I see the following general ranking at the top:
 
1. Denver.
 
2. NE
 
3. Indy, Baltimore, San Diego
 
4. Cinci
 
As to the Jets, their schedule to start the season is murder.  1-6 or 2-5 would not be hard to believe.  How they react to that, if it happens, will be great theater.  They usually rally around the Rex but how many times can he go to that well?

 

[Silverdude2167]

6. New England 9-7 (a lot is riding on Brady's game returning to elite based on better receivers, but that's not a given)

Returning to from where? His numbers from the second half of the season were elite. The team went 12-4 last year and has theoretically improved at multiple positions, but you see them going 9-7 based off what?

 

[Stitch01]

Tier 1
1) Denver
2) NE
 
These two are real close, lets see whose healthy in January.  Think the Pats actually have higher upside but more variance. 
 
Tier 2
3) Cincinnati
4) San Diego
5) Indy
 
Reasonable chance Indy sucks, but Luck is enough to get them here. If Luck ever gets hurt they go 4-12
 
Tier 3
6) Baltimore
7) Tennessee
8) Houston
9) Pittsburgh
10) KC
 
No idea what order these teams should be in.  Chiefs might be truly awful.
 
Tier 4--rest of AFC East
11) Miami
12) NYJ
13) Buffalo
 
If Orton plays and isn't terrible the Bills might finish 2nd.  Hard to see anyone here cracking .500 even with an easy schedule and head to head games.
 
Tier 5
14) Jacksonville
15) Cleveland
16) Oakland
 
EDIT: Pats aren't going 9-7 unless Brady and a couple of other key guys get hurt, but I'd quibble with the 3 games worse arguments.  Pats were closer to a "true" 10 win team last year than a 12 win team, they could play better and end up 10-6 or 11-5 or something like that.

 

[j44thor]

NE 9-7 while TN goes 11-5 behind Jake Locker with no receivers or a run game.

This smells like a Borges column.

 

[bakahump]

I agree with the consensus top 5-7
 
1. Den
2. NE
3. Colts
4. Cinci
5. SD
6. Tenn/Bal
7. Bal/Tenn
 
 
 
However unlike many of you I really wonder if the Broncos can hold on to the #1 spot. 
 
Trevathan
Welker
Manning
Talib
 
All are either hurt or very likely to be hurt. 
 
The Thomas Brothers are Great.
Peyton will probably stay upright (but is 38....and unlike Brady has some recent surgeries to consider) but maybe another year will increase the amount of ducks he throws.
Welker...who knows as he is the current poster boy for "one more hit".
Miller is a red light away from big trouble
Talib hasnt  played 16 games once in his career and hasnt played more then 13 since 2009.
Trevathan is out 4-8 weeks...lets split it at 6.  That leaves the Colts, Chiefs, Seahawks, Cardinals, Jets and 49ers. Add the Chargers if it goes the full 8.  The Pats might also get a "Rusty" (assuming he is back) Trevathan.
A week 4 bye helps the Trevathan situation....but hurts the other players. It cant help Peyton having to go 12 weeks till the end of the season with no rest. (conversely the Pats have a week 10 bye).
 
 
Dont get me wrong I think the Broncos win the west and are a scary team.  But I wonder if they get to 12 wins with all the questions.  I would say 11-5 just to be Mr. Negative.  And if they dont have HFA......they are in trouble.

 

[mauf]

The vast majority of us like last year's four division champs to repeat the feat, and I think most of us to expect San Diego to grab one of the wild cards again. Perhaps all that will happen, but if it does, that sort of continuity would (I think) be unprecedented in the past 25 years.

I'm not sure what to do with this information. None of last year's also-rans besides Oakland and Jacksonville impressed me with their offseason moves, so maybe the stage is set for an unprecedented degree of continuity -- but I think it's more likely we're missing something. So while I can't wrap my head around the idea of the Jets or the Titans being legitimate playoff contenders, I'm not going to poke fun at folks for throwing them in the mix, because almost anything is more probable than the sort of continuity most of us are predicting.

 

[Stitch01]

Its probably solved by injuries. Some team will stay healthy and win close games and knock off one of the expected favorites.  It wouldn't shock me if Tennessee or Houston wins the south, Colts are the logical by default pick but really aren't very good outside of the quarterback position. Balt or Pitt winning the north wouldn't be a shocker.  SD winning the west would be more surprising but not inconceivable.  Im having trouble thinking of any AFC East team overtaking the Pats, but if Miami survives the first month, gets three starters back, and is still somewhat healthy they have a punchers chance.

 

[Jungleland]

I really do not see a complete team in the AFC after Cincinnati, who I would put third. SD and KC strike me as very clear candidates for regression (much more difficult schedule than last year, the former's defense, and the latter's well documented o-line turnover). 
 
1. Denver
2. NE
3. Cincinnati
4. Houston
5. Baltimore
6. Miami
-
Just missed the cut: Indy
 
 
Bold(ish) predictions:
 
-Jacksonville finishes the year with Bortles starting, playing very well, and legitimate hope for 2015 in a division that suddenly appears wide open.
-Geno emerges as the clear #2 QB in the East, Jets are sunk by a weak defensive backfield rather than lack of offensive production
-Fitzpatrick Alex Smiths the Texans to a division win as the Clownified defensive line is even better than advertised
-In a reverse of last year, Denver wins the regular season Pats matchup but is beaten in the playoffs 

 

[j44thor]

The vast majority of us like last year's four division champs to repeat the feat, and I think most of us to expect San Diego to grab one of the wild cards again. Perhaps all that will happen, but if it does, that sort of continuity would (I think) be unprecedented in the past 25 years.

I'm not sure what to do with this information. None of last year's also-rans besides Oakland and Jacksonville impressed me with their offseason moves, so maybe the stage is set for an unprecedented degree of continuity -- but I think it's more likely we're missing something. So while I can't wrap my head around the idea of the Jets or the Titans being legitimate playoff contenders, I'm not going to poke fun at folks for throwing them in the mix, because almost anything is more probable than the sort of continuity most of us are predicting.

 
This was more or less what played out in the NFC last year so I don't have a hard time seeing the same happen save for injuries.  Really CAR was probably the biggest surprise in the NFC last season and that was mostly due to a vastly underrated D.  Perhaps TEN has an underrated D but Jake Locker is no Cam Newton.  More likely MIA is this years CAR though that OL is very suspect and the offensive weapons don't put a lot of fear in anyone.
 
This off-season the best teams in the AFC arguably made the biggest improvements (DEN - Talib, Ward, Clady, Von Miller for a full season), (NE - Revis, Gronk, Browner) .  It is very rare that the best teams make the biggest splashes because typically they mortgage the cap to get into that position (see Bal/Pitt/NYJ as recent examples) thus they lose a great deal more than they gain.
 
If someone suffers a rash of injuries similar to what GB faced last year then they prob miss the playoffs but outside of that I have a hard time seeing much change at the very top.

 

[Toe Nash]

Some interesting opinions in here. One problem is where to start; 16 games is a small sample to judge a team and things like scheduling affects it a lot.
 
DVOA seems like as a good a place to start as any. The rankings last year:
 
1. Denver
 
gap
 
2. NE
3. KC
4. CIN
 
gap
 
5. SD
6. IND
7. PIT
8. BUF
9. TEN
10. MIA
11. BAL
12. NYJ
 
gap
 
13. CLE
14. HOU
15. OAK
16. JAC
 
Note that these are adjusted for 2013 strength of schedule. So the major questions are, which teams have gotten better, which have gotten worse, or alternately, who greatly over- or under-performed in 2013? Here's how I'd lay it out:
 
1+2: Denver and NE. Both teams improved, NE probably moreso. Denver added Talib, Sanders, Ware, Ward, they get Clady and Von Miller back. I think Ware is over the hill but that's a lot of additions. Welker likely takes a step back, possibly a big one, they lost Trevathan for the beginning of the year, and maybe Manning isn't otherwordly (ha). But this team is improved.
 
NE arguably made bigger strides as Revis is no worse than a top 5 CB and if he thrives he's the best since Deion. Then they had worse injury luck than Denver did last year. So really, flip a coin between the two.
 
3: CIN. I don't think Dalton is great but their defense is. And he's fine.
 
4: IND. Class of a weak division. Defense is still mediocre but with Wayne returning this is a very good offense, especially if they get anything from Hakeem Nicks. 
 
5: KC. Easy to pick on them as their schedule was so poor, but I think this is a good team. They lost 6 of their last 8 including the playoff game, but 4 of those games were very close. 
 
6. SD. By DVOA, their offense was second but their defense was dead last. I am not sure their defense has improved much, but it's not particularly difficult to go from 32nd to mediocre, which I think would help a lot. Maybe it's tough to stay at the top offensively.
 
7. PIT. I don't see them staying out of the playoffs for long and this wasn't a bad team last year. They also finished the year 8-4, which included two losses by 3 pts or less. Whether they or SD make it in could depend on tiebreakers.
 
The rest are admittedly a big lump of mediocre to me so I will be less detailed.
 
8-11. BUF, TEN, HOU, BAL. I see Miami dropping out of this group and Houston coming back in. Houston just has too much talent and are not that far removed from the team that went 12-4. They lost a lot of close games. Their QB situation is poor which prevents them from being any better than this.
 
Buffalo has a good defense but I don't think Manuel is the answer. I don't see how Baltimore fixed their offensive line at all -- that's a mediocre-to-bad offense and an aging defense. 
 
12-16. OAK, JAC, NYJ, MIA, CLE.
The Jets were overrated and bad last year, their strength at D-line (against the rush) is unimportant in today's NFL, and their huge weakness in the secondary is very important in today's NFL. They have an overrated terrible backup QB who you know is going to get PT and mess up their starter's development. They have an overrated terrible #1 rusher who is going to get too many carries. Decker doesn't have an HoFer throwing to him anymore. They're bad.

 

[j44thor]

Den - 1a
NE - 1b
The rich both get richer in this tier with top FA acquisitions and health of key contributors returning on both sides.  
 
CIN - getting Atkins back is huge for D, could have a dominate running game to help out Dalton & AJ
In a tier by themselves
 
MIA
IND
PIT
SD
The question mark group, MIA may have a top 3 D in AFC but the offense is very questionable esp the OL.
IND may have a top 3 offense but the D is suspect and they are a prime candidate for regression.
PIT - D should bounce back and Big Ben still has some game.  If Leveon Bell takes the next step they could make the playoffs.
SD - Another prime regression candidate.  Were really lucky with injuries last season, don't think that luck carries over this season.
 
JAX
HOU
BUF
BAL
KC
 
The Unlikely to break .500 but chances are good one ends up in the playoffs.  My underdog of the season is JAX, they were competitive 2nd half of last season and Bortles could possibly lead them to an 8-8 finish, they are going to give IND fits.  Quite possible no one in that div is better than 8-8. 
BUF is talented everywhere except coach and QB, sucks to be them.  BAL should bounce back with new OC, KC will falter with terrible OL and much tougher sched.  HOU season literally rests on the back of Arian Foster.  Not a bet I would wager.
 
TN - very bland, don't do anything particularly well
OAK - Oldest team in the league and will play like it
NYJ - no WRs or CBs in a passing league, not a recipe for success
CLE - no wrs or QB in a passing league, not a recipe for success

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Okay, controversial, but SoSH needs an uninformed shit-stirrer like the Red Sox need an outfielder...
 
1.  Denver.  Assuming good (not great) health I just think they're a lot better than the Pats with Clady and Miller rejoining the team, and the addition of Talib and Ware and Ward.  I think Sanders can replace a lot of any prospective lost Welker production too..
 
2.  Bengals.  Just lining them up against the Pats (which I know isn't how it's done), you've got a better OL, a better set of WRs, a better lead RB, at least as good a front seven on defense.  I'll give the Pats the edge at QB (though, as noted above, Dalton isn't quite as terrible as often presumed), at TE (health being a big questions), and in the defensive backfield (though again, the Bengals aren't at all bad back there).
 
3.  Pats.  I know, I'm one of those "half-empty" fans.  I acknowledge massive upgrades across the D (not just Revis, but returning Wilfork and Mayo and getting more from Collins too), as well as Brady's unparalelled excellence.  Great team, that can definitely beat #1 or #2 if Gronk is Gronk and they have good health...but the OL still needs to prove it to me.
 
4.  Chargers.
5.  Colts.
6.  Texans -- I like Fitzy more than most.  The defensive front seven has ridiculous potential with Cushing back in good health.  Elite talent at WR.  If Foster is healthy all year, I see them as high as #4 here actually.
7.  Chiefs
8.  Steelers.
 
9.  Ravens
10.  Bills
11. Jets
12. Browns -- respectable defense, balancing out no-name offense
13. Fish
 
14. Titans
15.  Jaguars
16.  Raiders

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Never mind...

 

[bradmahn]

I don't think it really matters after you get past the top three teams (NE, DEN, CIN).
 
I don't like the Colts -- their defense is weak, their line is bad, Trent Richardson has question marks, and they have an idiot for an OC that wants to ground and pound despite all signs pointing to his team being more effective tossing the rock than running it. I think Houston wins the division, actually, while the Jags play to a third place finish and the Titans eat shit all the way to a top 5 pick.
 
KC and SD are staring down some glaring weaknesses and are not playoff teams at this time, in my humble opinion. The Raiders will do better than expected, but still struggle to a 7 or 8 win season.
 
Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami, I think, are pretty close together, though I like the Steelers to be the wildcard. Here's my list:
 
1. NWE
2. DEN
3. CIN
4. HOU
5. PIT
6. MIA
 
7. IND
8. BAL
9. SD
10. CLE
11. JAX
12. KC
13. OAK
14. BUF
15. TEN
16. NYJ

 

[coremiller]

The vast majority of us like last year's four division champs to repeat the feat, and I think most of us to expect San Diego to grab one of the wild cards again. Perhaps all that will happen, but if it does, that sort of continuity would (I think) be unprecedented in the past 25 years.

I'm not sure what to do with this information. None of last year's also-rans besides Oakland and Jacksonville impressed me with their offseason moves, so maybe the stage is set for an unprecedented degree of continuity -- but I think it's more likely we're missing something. So while I can't wrap my head around the idea of the Jets or the Titans being legitimate playoff contenders, I'm not going to poke fun at folks for throwing them in the mix, because almost anything is more probable than the sort of continuity most of us are predicting.

 
This is not quite right.  That sort of continuity is mostly unprecedented, yet it can still be true that continuity is the most likely outcome, because any particular outcome is unlikely.  All the other outcomes together are more likely than continuity, but that doesn't mean any single one of those outcomes is more likely.  It's the difference between picking a single other golfer to beat Tiger Woods in 2000 vs. picking the field.  The field is more likely to win than Tiger, but no particular golfer is.
 
Anyway, here are my rankings.
 
1) Denver
2) New England
 
I like New England's offseason better than Denver's, but I can't put them ahead of Denver right now after Denver throttled them in the AFC Championship Game last year.  NE could be the better team this season but I want to see it on the field first before I move NE up to #1.
 
3) Cincy.  The most complete of the rest of the teams, they should cruise to 10 wins and then will go as far as Dalton can take them, which is probably a loss to Denver or New England on the road in the playoffs.
 
4) Indy.  This is a mediocre at best team with a very good QB.  In any other division in the league they'd be at best a wild card contender, but that division is godawful and they'll probably only need 8 or 9 wins to carry it.
 
5-9) KC, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami.  The Wild Card contenders.  The order is mostly random, none of these teams stand out and all of them will probably end up between 9-7 and 7-9.  Who makes the playoffs will be mostly determined by luck.  Indy has the easiest division and could win the division at 9-7, but that team apart from Luck is not very good.  KC is due for some regression, but they have enough talent to not completely fall apart.  San Diego has no defense.  Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Miami are the definition of mediocre, they do a lot of things decently but nothing especially well and will neither be terrible nor excellent.
 
10-12) Tennessee, Houston, Jets.  This is the 5-7 win range.  .500 will be a struggle.  Expect inconsistency.  Tennessee or Houston could get hot and sneak into the playoffs if the Colts falter, but it's a long shot.  The Jets are probably closer to the bottom group in terms of talent, but Ryan is a very good coach and will scratch out an extra win or two compared to the bottom group.
 
13-16) Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Oakland.  Dross.  Cleveland or Buffalo could move up into the 5-7 win range, maybe.  Jacksonville is playing for next year.  Oakland has a brutal schedule and will probably have the worst record in the league.
 
God, the AFC is awful.  Can't we just skip the season and go straight to the Den/NE AFCCG rematch in January?  Only Denver, New England, and Cincy would be favorites to finish above .500 in the NFC, and of the top 12 teams in the league, there's a good case that nine of them are in the NFC.  I like all of Seattle, SF, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, Arizona, Philly, Detroit and Carolina better than anyone in the AFC after Cincy, and teams like the Giants, Tampa, Atlanta, and St Louis would be frisky wildcard contenders in the AFC but will struggle to get to seven wins in the NFC.

 

[JohnnyK]

 

15. Kansas City 3-13 (I wanted to believe that Alex Smith's revival in San Francisco was real, but last year was smoke and mirrors)

15. That's an even bigger fall off and it's hard to understand given last year's performance and the roster they seemingly have.  Smith looked like more than smoke and mirrors last year to me. 

3-13 looks harsh, but they did lose 3/5ths of their OLine.

 

[mauf]

 
God, the AFC is awful.  Can't we just skip the season and go straight to the Den/NE AFCCG rematch in January?  Only Denver, New England, and Cincy would be favorites to finish above .500 in the NFC, and of the top 12 teams in the league, there's a good case that nine of them are in the NFC.  I like all of Seattle, SF, New Orleans, Green Bay, Chicago, Arizona, Philly, Detroit and Carolina better than anyone in the AFC after Cincy, and teams like the Giants, Tampa, Atlanta, and St Louis would be frisky wildcard contenders in the AFC but will struggle to get to seven wins in the NFC.

The NFC might be slightly stronger, but you're overstating the case. Like the AFC, the NFC has two elite teams -- maybe three, if you think the Packers can still come close to their 2010-11 form with better luck health-wise. I don't see any other teams that are clearly better than Cincy or Indy -- Arizona, Carolina and Philly are likely to regress (though a regressed Eagles team is probably still the favorite in the East), and New Orleans isn't the juggernaut it was 5 years ago.

One thing the NFC does have is depth. Whereas 5 or 6 AFC teams are dead and buried before a single down is played (OAK, JAX, TEN, BUF, CLE, and maybe NYJ), there are only 2 NFC teams that I see as similarly hapless (MIN and STL, and the Rams wouldn't be on that list if they played in the East).

 

[54thMA]

Jets at 7 is not bonkers  better Off  Miami Twice Buffalo Twice they match up well aga NE  they can win 9 games    but they plob need to sweep miami buff to do so 

 
Nice to see you here again j-man, best of luck to you and your Broncos this year, look forward to your posts this football season.
 

 

[bradmahn]

The NFC might be slightly stronger, but you're overstating the case. Like the AFC, the NFC has two elite teams -- maybe three, if you think the Packers can still come close to their 2010-11 form with better luck health-wise. I don't see any other teams that are clearly better than Cincy or Indy -- Arizona, Carolina and Philly are likely to regress (though a regressed Eagles team is probably still the favorite in the East), and New Orleans isn't the juggernaut it was 5 years ago.

One thing the NFC does have is depth. Whereas 5 or 6 AFC teams are dead and buried before a single down is played (OAK, JAX, TEN, BUF, CLE, and maybe NYJ), there are only 2 NFC teams that I see as similarly hapless (MIN and STL, and the Rams wouldn't be on that list if they played in the East).

 
I hate Arizona this year -- all of a sudden their strong front seven is a shell of its former self when you lose both starting ILBs and Dockett. Add in a Carson Palmer led offense and I have zero faith they will be any good this year. To a certain extent, I liken the 9ers to them (but Kaep at least gives them a hope and a prayer of being competitive) -- their corners are dogshit, they lost Aldon for 9 games, Dorsey's done, Bowman's out 'til mid Oct. at best, and Ray McDonald is about to be suspended for six games. Bigtime fallback for the 9ers, methinks.

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

 

Points for original thinking but a few questions follow.
 
4 - A better o-line?  Miami is starting 5 guys who have never played together before.  Why and how is the o-line better?  And how good is it?
 
6- Agree that people are assuming that the Pats receivers will be better and that is not a given, but they won 12 last year with rookies, Gronk hurt for much of the season and no one to take the place of Hernandez, even in name.  What explains the 3 game fall off with a likely improved offense and Revis added to the D?
 
15. That's an even bigger fall off and it's hard to understand given last year's performance and the roster they seemingly have.  Smith looked like more than smoke and mirrors last year to me. 
 
As for me, I see the following general ranking at the top:
 
1. Denver.
 
2. NE
 
3. Indy, Baltimore, San Diego
 
4. Cinci
 
As to the Jets, their schedule to start the season is murder.  1-6 or 2-5 would not be hard to believe.  How they react to that, if it happens, will be great theater.  They usually rally around the Rex but how many times can he go to that well?

 

Kansas City's loss is Miami's gain in this case. It would be hard to isolate the continuity argument for offensive lines. How much of that is real and how much is media? I don't doubt it's a factor.

Brady had an elite stretch in games 9-12 (Pittsburgh, Carolina, Denver, Houston), but otherwise was very much below average (he was very good in week 4 against Atlanta, too). He's 37 now, which is younger than Manning, but still at an age where sudden drop-offs are fairly frequent. So, why would I say Manning won't falter while Brady's faltering last year is the new norm? Just part of my personal superstition, I guess. I hate expecting the moon and ending up disappointed. Better it be a pleasant surprise.

 

[Stitch01]

I think this Pats team probably wins 10 games with a league average quarterback and good health elsewhere. 

 

[Super Nomario]

   

Kansas City's loss is Miami's gain in this case. It would be hard to isolate the continuity argument for offensive lines. How much of that is real and how much is media? I don't doubt it's a factor.

Brady had an elite stretch in games 9-12 (Pittsburgh, Carolina, Denver, Houston), but otherwise was very much below average (he was very good in week 4 against Atlanta, too). He's 37 now, which is younger than Manning, but still at an age where sudden drop-offs are fairly frequent. So, why would I say Manning won't falter while Brady's faltering last year is the new norm? Just part of my personal superstition, I guess. I hate expecting the moon and ending up disappointed. Better it be a pleasant surprise.

Even if you think Brady was below average most of last season, they still won 12 games. Is their slide to 9 predicated on him slipping further, to a bottom 10-15 QB?

 

[Ralphwiggum]

In the BB/TB era the Pats have averaged 12 wins a year, and in my view this is the best Pats team coming out of training camp since 2007.  I would be shocked if they only won 9 games (assuming Brady stays relatively healthy).

 

[Bergs]

In the BB/TB era the Pats have averaged 12 wins a year, and in my view this is the best Pats team coming out of training camp since 2007.  I would be shocked if they only won 9 games (assuming Brady stays relatively healthy).

 
I slapped a hondo on the 11-win over. That said, it is a pretty nasty schedule.

 

[Stitch01]

You think?  I think its pretty favorable. 

 

[mauf]

You think?  I think its pretty favorable. 

They play one tough division (AFC West) and one average one (NFC North), plus Indy and Cincy. The toughness of the AFCW is tempered by the fact that NE would've had to face DEN even if their divisions didn't line up this year. Overall, it's neither exceptionally easy or tough, but pretty much what you'd expect as a defending division champ.

 

[Bergs]

Really? Ignoring the AFCE:
 
Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Packers, Lions, Chargers and Bengals are all playoff contenders.
 
Raiders, Vikes, and Bears will likely be easy wins, but on the balance, I'd consider that a fairly nasty schedule..

 

[mauf]

Really? Ignoring the AFCE:
 
Broncos, Chiefs, Colts, Packers, Lions, Chargers and Bengals are all playoff contenders.
 
Raiders, Vikes, and Bears will likely be easy wins, but on the balance, I'd consider that a fairly nasty schedule..

You have to compare it to the sked that might have been.

The NFC North is no picnic, but it's vastly preferable to the West, and about the same as the South (which has no one as good as GB, but no gimmes like MIN). So unless you drew the NFC East, you weren't going to have a significantly easier inter conference schedule.

Similarly, it would obviously have been better to draw the AFC South. But if that wasn't going to happen, and considering you'd play the other division winners regardless, I think I'd rather play KC/SD/OAK than BAL/PIT/CLE. Reasonable opinion can differ on that, though.

So in sum, the Pats avoided drawing the one division that could have made their overall schedule tougher than average (NFC West), but weren't fortunate enough to draw either of the two divisions that could have made their schedule easier than average (AFC South, NFC East). The result is roughly an average schedule for a defending division champ.

Edit: Another reason to prefer AFCW + CIN to AFCN + DEN is that the AFCW round robin forces all your division mates to play the Broncos.

 

[Stitch01]

I think the Lions aren't going to be very good and am not that high on the Chiefs and Colts which probably explains the difference in viewpoints (although I think the Bears game isn't a cakewalk).  I also like the draw of the first four games with Browner suspended and like the fact that the Bengals and Broncos are both home games, the latter at the end of a three home game in a row stretch.
 
If I had to guess lines now, Id guess Green Bay on the road is going to be the only game the Pats are underdogs in all season at game time.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
2.  Bengals.  Just lining them up against the Pats (which I know isn't how it's done), you've got a better OL, a better set of WRs, a better lead RB, at least as good a front seven on defense.  I'll give the Pats the edge at QB (though, as noted above, Dalton isn't quite as terrible as often presumed), at TE (health being a big questions), and in the defensive backfield (though again, the Bengals aren't at all bad back there).

 
This is a fair and reasonable comparison of the Bengals and Pats.  Some might nitpick and argue, but generally this seems in the ballpark.  But you left out coaching.  The two longest tenure coaches in the league, Belichick and Lewis.  But in a playoff game if you had to rank the coach in the NFL to want to  lead your team, many people would pick BB first.  Many other coaches would then be chosen before Marvin Lewis.  Big advantage for the Pats. 

 

[tims4wins]

 
This is a fair and reasonable comparison of the Bengals and Pats.  Some might nitpick and argue, but generally this seems in the ballpark.  But you left out coaching.  The two longest tenure coaches in the league, Belichick and Lewis.  But in a playoff game if you had to rank the coach in the NFL to want to  lead your team, many people would pick BB first.  Many other coaches would then be chosen before Marvin Lewis.  Big advantage for the Pats. 

 
The Bengals also have to deal with Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each. They have games at NE, NO, and Indy. They play Denver at home. Even if they are a better team than the Pats, they are highly unlikely to finish ahead of the Pats in the AFC. I see 11 wins as their ceiling and likely under that.
 
Edit: the Bengals are my dark horse AFC team to go from playoffs to non-playoffs this year

 

[Stitch01]

Bengals losing both coordinators worries me some as well, although they are the rare example of an 2014 NFL team where the OC talks about running more and its probably a good idea.
 
I wouldn't put them ahead of NE but it doesn't strike me as unreasonable, lots of pieces there and I think they're still clearly the class of that division.