Coming in late so I'll hit on some key discussion points first:
- (Jets) I think both Geno and Mark Sanchez were underrated the last two years due to the incredibly weak supporting cast on offense, which makes it hard to properly judge them. Both had some flaws, but not enough help to ever put together some big games to show what they're capable of. Neither Decker nor Chris Johnson figure to be huge difference makers, but they still represent some improvement. Still they overacheived with 8 wins last year, and I think 9 wins would be their absolute ceiling this season.
- (Pats/Broncos) Love the offseason both teams had, and the difference between these two is within the noise. Emmanuel Sanders was a great pickup for the Broncos on top of everyone else, and while they likely won't match the statistical production they had on offense last year, they don't need to. Even if Welker is diminished, Manning was able to make do with Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Jacob Tamme a few years back in Indy when the injury bug had bitten hard. A guy like Caldwell or Lattimer or Burse can likely step up alongside Thomas, Thomas and Sanders. Meanwhile this is the best Pats defense on paper since they last won the Super Bowl. I keep feeling better and better about the Pats offense as time goes on as well, and think it will be much closer to the group we saw in games 9-12 last year than the rest of the season. I just see the Pats matching up well with Denver, but kudos to John Elway for setting the right tone in the offseason following that demoralizing Super Bowl.
- (Indy) Agree that teams like Cincy and Baltimore are probably better overall, but the Colts will probably be a top 3 seed based on their schedule. With Wayne back, the addition of Nicks and Moncrief at receiver, and the tight end combo being whole again with Allen back, I see Luck taking another step forward. Like everyone else, I ultimately see their O-Line and defense being shaky enough to get exploited by the Broncos or Patriots come playoff time.
Predicted order of finish:
1. Broncos
1a Pats ** Super Bowl Pick
3. Indy (based on record only, not necessarily talent)
4. Cincy - Dalton isn't a star, but I think he'll still improve slightly.
5. Baltimore - Not that high on the Ravens, but with Dennis Pitta back for a full season, the addition of Steve Smith and an intriguing new O-coordinator in Gary Kubiak, they should improve enough offensively to compliment a solid if no longer elite defense.
6. San Diego - I'll buy into the hype of them as a sleeper because they finished strong last year, and I think they can sweep both KC and Oakland and probably take 3 of 4 from the AFC East.
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7. Houston - Intriguing talent on defense with the return of Brian Cushing and addition of Clowney. Even with uncertainty at QB, they have Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Graham, and a good offensive mind in Bill O'Brien that makes me think they should be adequate at worst on that side of the ball, and therefore in the hunt for a playoff spot.
8. Pittsburgh - Big Ben is enough by himself to get this team to 7-8 wins. Then it will just be a matter of how much they can improve defensively.
9. Miami - I'll go with them as #2 in the AFC East for now. Solid pass rush and a good corner in Grimes. I still think Tannehill can be a decent QB, but I am curious about the O-Line.
10. KC - Too much turnover from last year. I just don't like that offense with a shaky line protecting Smith.
11. Tennessee - Might be better than I am giving them credit for, but I don't see much defensively.
12. Jets - A bit better on paper, but still might not have a better record than last year.
13. Bills - Hope I am wrong on this one because I have a soft spot for Bills fans, and I do think their defense is legit. I am curious to see if this offense is really going to struggle as much as some people fear it will.
14. Cle - If Josh Gordon were playing I could see them being a pleasant surprise. Now their only real offensive threat is at TE in Cameron. Neither Hoyer nor Manziel can be expected to do much here. Obviously the defense is pretty good though.
15. Jax - I am not as down on the Jaguars and Raiders as many, even though I can't rank them higher than I have here. Jacksonville is moving in the right direction and they had an intriguing draft. They have a decent defense and a higher celing on offense than the Raiders so I put them a spot ahead.
16. Oakland - Initially their offseason looked like it would be a disaster, but in the end they did OK. The signings of Tuck, Woodley, James Jones and Maurice Jones Drew were solid if not spectacular. I like the Mack pick and obviously Derek Carr was a good value for them in the second round and gives some reason for optimism moving forward.
