Ranking the Unbeatens - 2015

bsj · Oct 20, 2015

One of the playoff predictors (probably on ESPN although it may have been SI.com) has us as the projected 3 seed in the AFC.

EDIT- I suspect they were really doing a "if the season ended today and the Patriots played one less game which would never happen" thing, but then don't use the word "projected", which typically accounts for likely outcomes over the course of a season.

dynomite · Oct 20, 2015

bsj said:
One of the playoff predictors (probably on ESPN although it may have been SI.com) has us as the projected 3 seed in the AFC.

Well aren't we at the moment? The Bengals and Broncos are 6-0 while we're 5-0, so it might just be reflecting the current standings.

Edit: yep, agreed.

bsj · Oct 20, 2015

1. New England
2. Green Bay
3. Carolina
4. Cincinnati
5. Atlanta (I know not unbeaten)
6. Denver

Mugsy's Jock · Oct 20, 2015

I expect we'll learn an awful lot about the Jets this weekend -- it's very plausible to me that they are one of the two best teams in the AFC, and one of the 4-5 best in the league.

wiffleballhero · Oct 20, 2015

Denver seems like an incredibly suspect 6-0. All of the teams they have beaten stink and only Minnesota has a winning record, itself built on beating two terrible teams and one (SD) questionable team.

Denver really should have lost to Cleveland and it was only the 'magic' of Cleveland's ongoing self-flagellation that has them at 6-0.

At least Carolina beat Seattle, a team that has by far the hardest 2-4 around.

Green Bay seems like a force. I am glad the Pats are not going to Wisconsin this year.

1. NE
1a. GB (and until SD played them super tight I would have had them as 1.)
3. Cinn.
4. Carolina
5. Denver (but I doubt Denver could beat any of those teams above them, nor Pittsburgh, Atlanta or the Jets!)

(Also, Denver is coming off this list after their next game -- vs. GB.)

bsj · Oct 20, 2015

Mugsys Jock said:
I expect we'll learn an awful lot about the Jets this weekend -- it's very plausible to me that they are one of the two best teams in the AFC, and one of the 4-5 best in the league.

Agreed.

I dont think they are top 2 AFC even with a win this week....but will give them top 3 behind Cinci.

Rudy's Curve · Oct 20, 2015

bsj said:
1. New England
2. Green Bay
3. Carolina
4. Cincinnati
5. Atlanta (I know not unbeaten)
6. Denver

Carolina beat Ryan Mallett and Luke McCown-quarterbacked teams by a combined 12 points, both at home. They're not better than Cincinnati.

pokey_reese · Oct 20, 2015

Rudy's Curve said:
Carolina beat Ryan Mallett and Luke McCown-quarterbacked teams by a combined 12 points, both at home. They're not better than Cincinnati.

To be fair, the list of QBs the Pats have beaten:

Luck

Weeden

Bortles

Taylor

Big Ben

...and we beat Ben when he had no Bell available. Now, you can argue that we beat them so badly that it makes a difference, but ultimately each team plays the schedule they are given, and hopes for wins. Not to mention, the big point differential is all from two games, one of which was against the Jags, three of our five games have been ultimately won by a single score (garbage time TDs still count). Putting a whuppin' on the Jets would make me feel better, but the Pats really haven't beaten anyone of consequence yet. Taking the aggregate of strength of schedule is ok, but let's look at each team's signature win so far:

Patriots: @ IND (or vs. PIT?)
Green Bay: vs. SEA
Carolina: @ SEA
Denver: vs. MIN
Cincinnati: vs. SEA

Pats and Denver clearly haven't faced much of a test, though arguably, no one on the list really has. Maybe that's why these teams are all undefeated, because they all have had relatively easy schedules? If I had/have the time (will try to work on it today), would love to look at point differential against common opponents in this group. Meanwhile, poor Seattle, those guys have had a rough go of it so far.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Oct 20, 2015

General power rankings"

1. Patriots
2. Packers
3. Bengals
4. Steelers
5. Panthers
6. Cardinals
7. Broncos
8. Jets
9. Falcons

I think the Steelers (once Ben comes back) are probably the most underrated team in the league right now. Other than simply ranking teams by record, I can't see any rationale for believing that the Broncos or Panthers are better.

Conigliaro's Potential · Oct 20, 2015

pokey_reese said:
Patriots: @ IND (or vs. PIT?)
Green Bay: vs. SEA
Carolina: @ SEA
Denver: vs. MIN
Cincinnati: vs. SEA

Pats and Denver clearly haven't faced much of a test, though arguably, no one on the list really has. Maybe that's why these teams are all undefeated, because they all have had relatively easy schedules? If I had/have the time (will try to work on it today), would love to look at point differential against common opponents in this group. Meanwhile, poor Seattle, those guys have had a rough go of it so far.

Is it possible Seattle isn't actually any good? I mean, how surprised would you be if they finished 7-9 at this point?

Kevin Youkulele · Oct 20, 2015

ConigliarosPotential said:
Is it possible Seattle isn't actually any good? I mean, how surprised would you be if they finished 7-9 at this point?

I feel like they could be decent if they fixed some things. For example, getting burned twice by the same TE post pattern in CIN is something they could have/should have avoided. But right now, they do not look good.

Van Everyman · Oct 20, 2015

I wrestle with the bolded point:

BaseballJones said:
The Patriots are, at this moment, pretty clearly the best team in the NFL. +80 point differential in just 5 games = an average margin of +16. At first glance, their schedule isn't very difficult. And yet, of these five teams, the Patriots have played by far the hardest schedule. Moreover, their team rankings are superior to everyone else's, all put together. No other team in this group has a unit ranked #1. Only the Patriots' scoring offense ranks as the best in the league. Only one other unit has a #2 ranking - Denver's yardage defense. So clearly the Patriots' offense is the best single unit of all five teams. And the defense is better than average (a combined ranking (pts/yds) of 13.5).

Not because it isn't technically true ... but because I wonder if the Broncos defense is actually the top defense in the league, when you look beyond yards and points. For instance, the Broncos lead the league (by 1) in turnovers (tho they are tied for 4th in giveaways). They're #1 in forced fumbles, #2 in interceptions, and #1 in sacks.

To me, combined with their rankings in yards and points, I think there's a pretty good case to be made that the Broncos, perhaps far and away, have the best defense in the league.

At that point, I think you have to decide how bad their offense really is, which I think is harder to do than it seems. Yes, Peyton has been awful so far -- and if past is prologue, he really struggles as the weather gets colder.

But anecdotally, he's shown an ability to make big plays in clutch situations -- the pass against the Browns being only the latest example. They have elite or near-elite weapons in Thomas and Sanders, and talented running backs. That's why, until Manning turned into Chad Pennington, most people thought they would be an offensive force this year.

As much as I would like to say the Broncos are going to fade, I have my doubts. Manning may have been a physical marvel in his younger years, but I think mechanics aren't the only reason he was a great QB -- he also has always been exceptionally good at reading defenses, which continues to be a tremendous asset during this odd run.

I think we underestimate them at our own peril.

pokey_reese · Oct 20, 2015

ConigliarosPotential said:
Is it possible Seattle isn't actually any good? I mean, how surprised would you be if they finished 7-9 at this point?

Well, I think this is a continuation of the same argument. If they finish 7-9, but all 9 of those losses are close ones against top-10 teams, that could easily make them a top-10 team. They still have the Cardinals twice, the Steelers, Cowboys, and Rams. I could see them winning three or four out of those five games (wins home against Cards, Steelers, and Rams, @ Cowboys). If they end up 8-8 or 9-7 with the schedule that they have (6 games against teams in the top 10 of ESPN's power rankings), I would consider them pretty good. I mean, they were just in the Super Bowl in February, and while the O line certainly looks like a problem, they still have a lot of talent.

mauf · Oct 20, 2015

The Bengals are the only team with the same 53-man roster as at the start of the season.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bengals-lead-nfl-in-not-getting-hurt-1445295540

I'm mostly on the Cincy bandwagon (they're a top-5 team), but they've unquestionably had more than their share of luck.

Rudy's Curve · Oct 20, 2015

maufman said:
The Bengals are the only team with the same 53-man roster as at the start of the season.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/bengals-lead-nfl-in-not-getting-hurt-1445295540

I'm mostly on the Cincy bandwagon (they're a top-5 team), but they've unquestionably had more than their share of luck.

They've certainly been fortunate with the guys they have. However, that doesn't include missing Vontaze Burfict all season, who should be activated from PUP soon and potentially right after the bye. He may not be the player he was before microfracture, but he should definitely be an upgrade on the weakest unit of the defense.

bababooey · Oct 20, 2015

I feel it's worth pointing out that the Broncos are 4-0 on the road - only one other team has even played 4 road games (Chiefs, 1-3). Say what you will about their opponents but there are no easy road wins in the NFL. Ask Seattle. And Seattle doesn't have Peyton Manning's Expiring Contract playing QB...

Stitch01 · Oct 20, 2015

Yeah it doesn't take anything away from the Bengals, but they've definitely has good injury luck.

mauf · Oct 20, 2015

Please forgive my redundancy -- here's a list I posted in the other thread of scoring margin, on a per-game basis.

1. NE +16.0
2. ARI +14.7
3. NYJ +10.8
4. GB +10.5
5. CIN +10.0
6. CAR +8.2
7. ATL +6.7
8. DEN +6.2
PIT +6.2
10. PHI +5.7

In terms of ranking the unbeatens, I'd follow this list exactly in order: New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Denver.

The tricky question is where to slot in the teams that have lost games. I'm a believer in Arizona, but you can't ignore the two losses, so I'd slot them between Cincy and Carolina. I'd put the Jets behind Carolina -- I'm still not ready to disregard preseason expectations completely there. Atlanta/Denver is a coin flip for me. I'd rate Pittsburgh and Philly 9th and 10th, respectively.

Beyond that, Minnesota, Seattle, Buffalo, and the NY Giants are the only other teams who have outscored their opponents, and Indy is going to sail to the division title if the real Andrew Luck is back, which certainly seemed to be the case on Sunday night.

It feels like the other 17 teams are irrelevant. And it seems like we don't usually have that kind of clarity this early in the season.
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Drocca · Oct 20, 2015

You say Atlanta/Denver is a coin flip for you. Have you watched Atlanta play this year? I don't mean on a highlight show, but actually watched a game they played in? (I'm just assuming you have with Denver, but if you haven't then, I guess, same question).

Atlanta is much, much better than Denver in terms of playing football. I like numbers as much as anyone, but the average scoring margin 6 (or 5 for some) games in? Not sure about that.

mauf · Oct 20, 2015

Drocca said:
You say Atlanta/Denver is a coin flip for you. Have you watched Atlanta play this year? I don't mean on a highlight show, but actually watched a game they played in? (I'm just assuming you have with Denver, but if you haven't then, I guess, same question).

Atlanta is much, much better than Denver in terms of playing football. I like numbers as much as anyone, but the average scoring margin 6 (or 5 for some) games in? Not sure about that.

I've watched both teams for extended stretches.

The Falcons are a terrific offensive team that has been inconsistent (to put it kindly) on D. The Broncos are a terrific defensive team that has been inconsistent (to put it kindly) on O.

McBride11 · Oct 20, 2015

maufman said:
Please forgive my redundancy -- here's a list I posted in the other thread of scoring margin, on a per-game basis.

1. NE +16.0
2. ARI +14.7
3. NYJ +10.8
4. GB +10.5
5. CIN +10.0
6. CAR +8.2
7. ATL +6.7
8. DEN +6.2
PIT +6.2
10. PHI +5.7

In terms of ranking the unbeatens, I'd follow this list exactly in order: New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Denver.

The tricky question is where to slot in the teams that have lost games. I'm a believer in Arizona, but you can't ignore the two losses, so I'd slot them between Cincy and Carolina. I'd put the Jets behind Carolina -- I'm still not ready to disregard preseason expectations completely there. Atlanta/Denver is a coin flip for me. I'd rate Pittsburgh and Philly 9th and 10th, respectively.

Beyond that, Minnesota, Seattle, Buffalo, and the NY Giants are the only other teams who have outscored their opponents, and Indy is going to sail to the division title if the real Andrew Luck is back, which certainly seemed to be the case on Sunday night.

It feels like the other 17 teams are irrelevant. And it seems like we don't usually have that kind of clarity this early in the season.
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I know H2H aren't the be-all-and-end-all, but I'm curious how you rate Pitt lower than Arz when Pitt just beat them with their 3rd string QB? And Ben is actually a very good QB in this league that has relatively few. Plus he has Bell, Brown, and Bryant on O when he returns. Their D is suspect of course but that O will score a lot.

Deathofthebambino · Oct 20, 2015

Let's be clear here. Denver is a really, really bad offensive team. They are 13th in the league in points scored, but they have 4 defensive touchdowns already (which is crazy). If you eliminate those touchdowns, Denver is 30th in points scored. You want to know how bad Manning has been? The only starting quarterback worse in the NFL by most metrics is Ryan Mallett. Couple that with perhaps the worst running game in the league, and they are really, really, extra special bad on offense. Their defense cannot score points every week, and their opponents have handed them, literally handed them, 2/3 games already with horrible unforced errors and turnovers. Denver has had an easy schedule, and the remainder of their schedule really isn't that difficult, and they catch a lot of the good teams they play at home, so they are probably a lock to make the playoffs at this point, but I would rank Atlanta, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Seattle and the other 4 unbeatens ahead of them without much of a thought.

I think Green Bay might be getting a bit overrated too. It's not all their doing though. They've been absolutely hammered by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Jordy Nelson out for the season, and Lacy, Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones have all been playing through stuff. The last couple of weeks, they've really struggled a bit, and San Diego put about 1,000 yards on their defense, but managed to only score 20 points. I think the bye week couldn't come at a better time for them, so they'll most likely rest up and come out like they did in week one, but their offense against Denver's defense in two weeks will tell us a lot about both teams.

On the flip side, I think people are really, really selling Carolina short. Their defense may very well be as good as Denver, and unlike Denver, Cam Newton is getting better, not worse. If that team could have ever learned that they needed to put some weapons around him at the skill positions, they'd be in a good position to fight for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Kelvin Benjamin injury sucks for them, but Olson seems to be turning into a true threat, and as long as Stewart stays healthy and continues to run hard, don't be surprised to see Carolina finish the season with around 13 wins. They are a really, really good team on both sides of the ball, and IMO, should be ranked 3 on this list, and not all that far behind Green Bay either.

j-man · Oct 22, 2015

wiffleballhero said:
Denver seems like an incredibly suspect 6-0. All of the teams they have beaten stink and only Minnesota has a winning record, itself built on beating two terrible teams and one (SD) questionable team.

Denver really should have lost to Cleveland and it was only the 'magic' of Cleveland's ongoing self-flagellation that has them at 6-0.

At least Carolina beat Seattle, a team that has by far the hardest 2-4 around.

Green Bay seems like a force. I am glad the Pats are not going to Wisconsin this year.

1. NE
1a. GB (and until SD played them super tight I would have had them as 1.)
3. Cinn.
4. Carolina
5. Denver (but I doubt Denver could beat any of those teams above them, nor Pittsburgh, Atlanta or the Jets!)

(Also, Denver is coming off this list after their next game -- vs. GB.)

Denver is 4 or 5 but i do not think Denver loses utanil nov 8 or 29 Pat bowlen is being put in the bronco hall of fame nov 1 and that will give the team a emo boost as green bay has played sloppy the last 3 games as green bay might not take this game as serious as u would want them to as a AFC loss does not hurt them as CAR/atl will likely go 12-4 11-5

j-man · Oct 22, 2015

1 NE
2 GB
3 DEN
4 CAR
5 CINY

weeba · Oct 23, 2015

From r/nfl. On average, Pats have had a 99% chance of winning a game with ~38% of the game remaining (22.8 minutes, or 1.5 quarters)

tims4wins · Oct 23, 2015

That equates to:
Taking 21-3 lead vs. Pitt
Taking 34-13 lead vs. Buff
Taking 20-3 lead vs. Jax
Taking 20-3 lead vs. Dall
Taking 34-21 lead vs. Indy

Edit: oh and 38% means on average they reach 99% chance of victory halfway through the 3rd quarter each week

amarshal2 · Oct 23, 2015

That Denver team is really not nearly as good as their record. I'm not sure they're legitimately in the top 8-10 teams in the NFL. If they played the Seahawks tomorrow on a neutral field, who do you take? I probably go Seattle.

Tony C · Oct 23, 2015

Seattle easy. Seattle is really good despite the record. Denver is very mediocre despite the record.

nothumb · Oct 23, 2015

ConigliarosPotential said:
Is it possible Seattle isn't actually any good? I mean, how surprised would you be if they finished 7-9 at this point?

I feel like Seattle's offense is in trouble but coming around. Not too different from NE at this time last year... OL troubles and some skill position changes that they are still working out.

The problems on D are more surprising. I feel like because SEA doesn't really scheme you up too much on D, if they have coaching lapses or exploitable tendencies, other teams take note and take advantage. I haven't watched enough to pick it apart, but it seems like the book is out on them and they need to adjust in response.

Either that or they are just getting more fatigued late in games because the offense is putting too much on them. They certainly seemed fine last night, but SF is an abortion precipitated by a clusterfuck inside a dumpster fire.

Devizier · Oct 23, 2015

As little as I trust Andy Dalton, for me the unbeaten ranks are:

1) NE
1A) GB-CIN
2) CAR-DEN

Including "beatens", I would put Arizona and Pittsburgh in the tier with Carolina and Denver. The Jets are in the 1A tier for me.

The Bills should be better, but let's face it, Rex is a huge liability for them right now. Seahawks are lurking.

DJnVa · Oct 23, 2015

So what is it with Seattle? They've played 3 bad teams and won and 4 decent to really good teams and lost. I'm not comfortable saying anything about them until they play the Cardinals on 11/15.

amarshal2 · Oct 23, 2015

maufman said:
Please forgive my redundancy -- here's a list I posted in the other thread of scoring margin, on a per-game basis.

1. NE +16.0
2. ARI +14.7
3. NYJ +10.8
4. GB +10.5
5. CIN +10.0
6. CAR +8.2
7. ATL +6.7
8. DEN +6.2
PIT +6.2
10. PHI +5.7

In terms of ranking the unbeatens, I'd follow this list exactly in order: New England, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Carolina, Denver.

The tricky question is where to slot in the teams that have lost games. I'm a believer in Arizona, but you can't ignore the two losses, so I'd slot them between Cincy and Carolina. I'd put the Jets behind Carolina -- I'm still not ready to disregard preseason expectations completely there. Atlanta/Denver is a coin flip for me. I'd rate Pittsburgh and Philly 9th and 10th, respectively.

Beyond that, Minnesota, Seattle, Buffalo, and the NY Giants are the only other teams who have outscored their opponents, and Indy is going to sail to the division title if the real Andrew Luck is back, which certainly seemed to be the case on Sunday night.

It feels like the other 17 teams are irrelevant. And it seems like we don't usually have that kind of clarity this early in the season.
,

I think this list has all the suspects minus Seattle. I'd rank them as follows:

1. NE (Unbeaten)
2a. GB (Unbeaten)
2b. Cinci (Unbeaten)
4. Pitt (not this week, but as soon as Ben is back -- the won't be the 3 seen in the AFC but at full strength they're a tough out)
5. AZ, I suppose
6. NYJ -- similar defense to CAR but better offense
7. CAR (Unbeaten)
8. ATL, I suppose
9. SEA
10. DEN (Unbeaten)

It looks like the Pats' toughest opponent was week 1 and their 2nd toughest opponent is the Jets.

Super Nomario · Oct 23, 2015

DrewDawg said:
So what is it with Seattle? They've played 3 bad teams and won and 4 decent to really good teams and lost. I'm not comfortable saying anything about them until they play the Cardinals on 11/15.

You mean the Cardinals that have beaten the 2-4 Saints, the 2-4 Bears, the 2-5 49ers, and the 1-5 Lions, and lost to the 2-3 Rams and 4-2 Steelers? This is a problem league-wide: all the good teams basically haven't played anyone good. That's how you end up with five unbeaten teams.

Deathofthebambino · Oct 23, 2015

Super Nomario said:
You mean the Cardinals that have beaten the 2-4 Saints, the 2-4 Bears, the 2-5 49ers, and the 1-5 Lions, and lost to the 2-3 Rams and 4-2 Steelers? This is a problem league-wide: all the good teams basically haven't played anyone good. That's how you end up with five unbeaten teams.

This is why I think people are seriously underestimating Carolina. I think their win AT Seattle last week was probably the best win any of the unbeatens have had to date. Cincinatti beat Seattle too, but they did it at home, and as we all know, Seattle is a very, very different team at home. Seattle started playing really well in week 3, and won two in a row before losing to Cincy and Carolina. I'm surprised that people rank Cincinatti so much higher than Carolina when they both beat Seattle by 3, but Carolina did so on the road under much tougher conditions.

Deathofthebambino · Oct 23, 2015

weeba said:
From r/nfl. On average, Pats have had a 99% chance of winning a game with ~38% of the game remaining (22.8 minutes, or 1.5 quarters)

This is pretty amazing, and should be pretty clear evidence that Denver has had a massive horseshoe jammed so far up their ass that they should be able to taste the hay the horse ate. They've really only had one game locked up with more than 2:32 left in the game, and three of their games, they basically won in the final seconds and another in overtime.

I said earlier that Denver had 2/3 games handed to them by opposing teams, but it's actually even worse than that. In case people don't remember:

Week 1, Denver has a 6 point lead against Baltimore. Baltimore had driven down to the Denver 16, and had one pass bounce off Steve Smith's hands for the winning TD, and then the next pass was ripped out of Gilmore's hands for a Denver interception in the end zone to end the game.

Week 2, KC takes a 7 point lead with 2:32 left in the game, and then promptly gives up a game tying touchdown drive to Manning. With KC trying to just run out the clock with less than 30 seconds left, Jamal Charles coughs up his second fumble of the game, and Roby picks it up and runs it in for the winning touchdown;

Week 4: With a tie game, Minnesota gives up a go ahead field goal to Denver with 2 minutes left. On the ensuing drive, Bridgewater gets them into Denver territory around midfield and then gets strip sacked, and Denver wins by 3.

Week 5: Oakland is down 9-7 and in field goal range to take the lead, with 6 minutes left and Carr throws a brutal pick 6 that gets returned 75 yards for a touchdown. Denver hadn't done shit on offense all day, so if Carr doesn't throw that pick, chances are a field goal would have been enough to win.

Week 6: Cleveland. I'm sure this one is fresh in everyone's minds, and the numbers above in that chart should be pretty clear evidence that Cleveland literally walked over and handed Denver the ball on a platter.

Denver could just as easily be 1-5 right now as 6-0. Their offense is so, so fucking bad. Their defense is really, really good and you can't take that away from them, but they've played Baltimore, Minnesota, Detroit, Oakland Cleveland and KC, whose offenses rank 11th, 29th, 26th, 20th, 12th and 22nd (by points scored per game) respectively. Let's see what happens when Denver plays any team that has a shot at even contending to make the playoffs.

dcmissle · Oct 23, 2015

We can play these games all day. Baltimore's 5 losses were by a combined 22 points, and they could be 6 and 0. But they are not, and they are not a good team.

Late wins? Fine. Only the bottom line counts, and you play who you play. We'll find out more going forward.

I think if their defense remains healthy, they will be fine until they run into a strong, more balanced team in the playoffs.

I'm not overly impressed, but they have won all their games.

Deathofthebambino · Oct 23, 2015

dcmissle said:
We can play these games all day. Baltimore's 5 losses were by a combined 22 points, and they could be 6 and 0. But they are not, and they are not a good team.

Late wins? Fine. Only the bottom line counts, and you play who you play. We'll find out more going forward.

I think if their defense remains healthy, they will be fine until they run into a strong, more balanced team in the playoffs.

I'm not overly impressed, but they have won all their games.

I agree to an extent. Yes, at the end of the day, wins and losses are all that matter, and right now, Denver is 6-0. All I'm saying is that 6-0 is not evidence of them being one of the elite teams in the NFL. Just as Baltimore's 1-5 doesn't make them one of the worst teams in the NFL. If we're ranking the unbeatens going forward, IMO, Denver should be at the bottom, by a very clear margin, and should be ranked lower than 4-5 other one loss (and 2 loss Seattle) teams.

There is a difference between winning games, and your opponent losing them. In Denver's case, they've won games as much in part to their opponent losing them. Yes, their defense is very, very good, and is forcing a lot of mistakes, but a lot of these mistakes have also been unforced errors. David Carr has to know to not throw that pass in that situation, Luke McCown, well, Luke McCown, etc. This thread is for coming up with a ranking of this group of teams, and I don't know how you can look at Denver's games this year, and their opponents, and come away with any other conclusion then NE, GB, Carolina and Cincy being much better all around teams.

Stitch01 · Oct 24, 2015

I'm sure I'm in the minority but I'd take Denver over Carolina on a neutral field

Oppo · Oct 25, 2015

j-man said:
Denver is 4 or 5 but i do not think Denver loses utanil nov 8 or 29 Pat bowlen is being put in the bronco hall of fame nov 1 and that will give the team a emo boost as green bay has played sloppy the last 3 games as green bay might not take this game as serious as u would want them to as a AFC loss does not hurt them as CAR/atl will likely go 12-4 11-5

Seriously? You really think GB will go into any game, much less SNF on the road against another unbeaten and not put everything into winning?
I guess every team should also start doing pre game HoF inductions to guarantee wins, too.

bababooey · Oct 26, 2015

Again, Denver is 4-0 on the road. Nobody else in the league is 4-0 on the road. Also, 4 of their last 5 games have been on the road. You can criticize the strength of their opponents but winning 4 road games in 5 weeks in the NFL is a rare thing. The 2007 team is the only Patriots team to ever win 4 road games in 5 weeks. Not comparing them to this year's Broncos, just saying...

j44thor · Oct 26, 2015

Pats are now an absurd 13/5 favorites to win the SB and even more ridiculous 21/20 fav to win the AFC.
GB are 17/5 SB favs and 7/5 NFC championship. A Pats/GB SB is the overwhelming prediction right now.

CIN/AZ clock in next at 13/1 & 14/1 respectively.

Den/SEA each 15/1 with CAR rounding out the unbeatens at 18/1.

Stitch01 · Oct 26, 2015

Im pretty bullish on the Pats, but man those are awful bets.

H78 · Oct 28, 2015

I'm only going by what my eyes tell me, but as much as I love the Pats and think they are one of the, if not THE elite teams in the league, I'm starting to get concerned that they're being overrated in the media a bit. This is a very good, resilient team, but I think they could have easily lost either game these last two weeks. The Colts sort of beat themselves in the 4th quarter and it took an all-world 4th quarter from Brady to beat the Jets at home this past week. I know there are injuries everywhere, and that's in part why I think they're maybe being a tad overrated - it feels like they've "gotten by" with the injuries these last few weeks, but they're eventually going to hit a wall.

I know the mark of any good NFL team is how they handle pressure late in games, and so far the Patriots have handled it well, but I'm still seeing people suggest that this squad is on par with 2007 and could go undefeated and I'm just not seeing that same level of dominance that we saw in 2007. I think the media is almost over-reporting the "Brady's Revenge Tour" story line, in part to set themselves up well for the "he got what he deserved!" stories if the Patriots lose in the playoffs or the SB.

This feels like a 14-2 team to me, not a 16-0 team. I think they're going to slip up a couple of times here, at two of @Miami, @NYG, and/or @NYJ. It would be nice to see Denver start to drop a couple of games in the near future.

Edit: Clarity

Silverdude2167 · Oct 28, 2015

H78 said:
I'm only going by what my eyes tell me, but as much as I love the Pats and think they are one of the, if not THE elite teams in the league, I'm starting to get concerned that they're being overrated in the media a bit. This is a very good, resilient team, but I think they could have easily lost either game these last two weeks. The Colts sort of beat themselves in the 4th quarter and it took an all-world 4th quarter from Brady to beat the Jets at home this past week. I know there are injuries everywhere, and that's in part why I think they're maybe being a tad overrated - it feels like they've "gotten by" with the injuries these last few weeks, but they're eventually going to hit a wall.

I know the mark of any good NFL team is how they handle pressure late in games, and so far the Patriots have handled it well, but I'm still seeing people suggest that this squad is on par with 2007 and could go undefeated and I'm just not seeing that same level of dominance that we saw in 2007. I think the media is almost over-reporting the "Brady's Revenge Tour" story line, in part to set themselves up well for the "he got what he deserved!" stories if the Patriots lose in the playoffs or the SB.

This feels like a 14-2 team to me, not a 16-0 team. I think they're going to slip up a couple of times here, at two of @Miami, @NYG, and/or @NYJ. It would be nice to see Denver start to drop a couple of games in the near future.

Edit: Clarity

They basically beat a very good Jets team by 10 points and a were up by 13 on the Colts at the 2-minute warning.

I do not think they will go 16-0, but you are reaching to complain about those two wins. They played less than great and still were up two scores with less than 2 minutes left in both games (on teams that had most of the breaks go their way). What more would you have wanted from them? They are not going to blow everyone out.

tims4wins · Oct 28, 2015

H78, I think you also forgot what December looked like for that 2007 Pats team. 3 point win vs. Philly. 3 point win at Baltimore when they nearly lost if not for a penalty on 4th down. 20-10 home win against the Jets. 3 point win in NY against the Giants.

That team was dominant early in the season, but not too much down the stretch. Who knows how this year will play out. I also think this is a 14-2 type of team, but in reality, 2007 may have been too.

edmunddantes · Oct 28, 2015

tims4wins said:
H78, I think you also forgot what December looked like for that 2007 Pats team. 3 point win vs. Philly. 3 point win at Baltimore when they nearly lost if not for a penalty on 4th down. 20-10 home win against the Jets. 3 point win in NY against the Giants.

That team was dominant early in the season, but not too much down the stretch. Who knows how this year will play out. I also think this is a 14-2 type of team, but in reality, 2007 may have been too.

If I recall correctly, it wasn't a penalty.

Wasn't it the DC (who is not allowed to actually call them), calling a timeout right before the ball was hiked and the Ravens stopped the Pats cold on the short yardage play?

I forget... who was that DC... I know he went on to coach more, but I don't remember where... is he still in the league? ;-)

edmunddantes · Oct 28, 2015

Holy Shit!! The sequence was more crazy than I remembered....

In a sequence that not even the greatest fiction writer could conjure up:
• Brady was stuffed on a fourth-and-1 sneak from the Baltimore 30-yard line, but the play was negated because Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan had called a timeout from the sideline a nanosecond before the snap. Baltimore coach Brian Billick declined to identify who signaled the timeout, noting only that "we called it" because the coaches "didn't like the configuration" in which the defense was aligned.
But television replays clearly showed Ryan calling the timeout, and several Ravens players confirmed that. So the Brady run was ruled a no-play.
• On the ensuing snap, fullback Heath Evans was crushed by linebackerBart Scott for a 1-yard loss. But the play was negated because Patriots right guard Russ Hochstein was called for a false-start penalty. Apprised that it was probably the most fortuitous foul of his career, the veteran backup lineman played it straight. "It's still something," Hochstein said, "that you never want to do."
Well, maybe not never, Russ.
•
With 55 seconds remaining and facing a fourth-and-5 from the Ravens' 13-yard line, Brady threw incomplete for tight end Benjamin Watson, but Baltimore dime cornerback Jamaine Winborne was flagged for holding in the secondary. It was the correct call by the officials, but on the wrong defender. Winborne made virtually no contact on the play but, in underneath coverage, Scott had Gaffney in a bear hug.

Goes to show what you need to go undefeated. Lots of luck and taking advantage of it when it happens.

bankshot1 · Oct 28, 2015

Silverdude2167 said:
They basically beat a very good Jets team by 10 points and a were up by 13 on the Colts at the 2-minute warning.

I do not think they will go 16-0, but you are reaching to complain about those two wins. They played less than great and still were up two scores with less than 2 minutes left in both games (on teams that had most of the breaks go their way). What more would you have wanted from them? They are not going to blow everyone out.

I've no idea what the Pats record will be this year, but its got to be sobering for a very good Jets team, (and the rest of the league) that the Pats at less than 100% (O-line, Lewis injuries) and playing one-dimensional football, still put up 30 on a really good defense.

loshjott · Oct 28, 2015

The vibe I'm getting from this team is similar to many of the 2006-13 teams, one where the defense, particularly the back end, may not be stout enough to hold off elite offenses in the playoffs. Fortunately, there doesn't seem to be many elite offenses in the AFC - or NFC either for that matter. I'm not making specific predictions but if this team falters I think it will be in 34-27 type games.

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