RealFantasy AFC North Discussion and Breakdown

Who's the division champ?

  • Bengals

    Votes: 13 59.1%
  • Ravens

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • Steelers

    Votes: 1 4.5%
  • Browns

    Votes: 7 31.8%

  • Total voters
    22

Super Nomario

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[tablegrid Offense] Bengals Snaps PFF Ravens Snaps PFF Steelers Snaps PFF Browns Snaps PFF QB Tom Brady 1351 17.7 Colin Kaepernick 1186 3.2 Russell Wilson 1189 26 Tyler Wilson 0 N/A QB Mike Glennon 864 -8.2 Blaine Gabbert 161 -11.1 QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 687 0.4 RB Andre Ellington 414 14.7 Bernard Pierce 414 -1.7 C.J. Spiller 394 -6.4 DeMarco Murray 690 15.5 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 486 -7 Giovani Bernard 694 17.7 Ben Tate 491 -3.6 Knowshon Moreno 847 6.7 RB Michael Ford 0 N/A FB James Casey 168 3 Marcel Reece 513 6.2 TE Levine Toilolo 198 -2.7 Lance Kendricks 588 -6.2 Coby Fleener 951 0.6 Jacob Tamme 292 7.3 TE Dion Sims 280 -11.1 Travis Kelce 0 N/A WR Victor Cruz 798 6.5 Michael Crabtree 372 0.8 T.Y. Hilton 897 13.5 Dwayne Bowe 934 9.6 WR Kendall Wright 818 12.2 Hakeem Nicks 845 0.1 Kenny Stills 798 -1.5 Greg Jennings 753 5.4 WR Steve Smith 816 11.4 Jacoby Jones 573 1.3 Josh Boyce 182 -1.6 Ryan Swope 0 N/A WR Jason Avant 858 -2.8 Aldrick Robinson 420 0.4 LT Mike Adams 485 -7.3 Anthony Castonzo 1221 9.9 Tyron Smith 1023 28.3 Michael Roos 1088 22 LG Mike Iupati 864 1.2 Kory Lichtensteiger 1155 0.3 Amini Silatolu 171 4.3 Chad Rinehart 795 1.6 C Nick McDonald 0 N/A Peter Konz 907 -29.7 Ted Larsen 369 -11 Gino Gradkowski 1181 -18.1 RG Brandon Moore 0 N/A Alex Boone 1208 -2.7 Jordan Mills 1022 -31.1 Jon Asamoah 682 6.6 RT Phil Loadholt 970 25 Anthony Davis 1192 11.4 Kelechi Osemele 443 -4.9 Cordy Glenn 1180 23 OT Ricky Wagner 131 1 Don Barclay 1043 -10.4 G/C Evan Dietrich-Smith 1137 14.2 Brandon Fusco 920 14.5 Nate Potter 80 -10 G/C J.R. Sweezy 1169 -5.9 QB 2215 9.5 1186 3.2 1189 26 848 -10.7 Skill 3698 38.1 4624 -1.9 4226 7.2 3936 44.9 OL 4756 28.2 6726 -21.2 3948 0.1 5006 25.1 [/tablegrid]
 

Super Nomario

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[tablegrid= Defense and Special Teams ] Bengals Snaps PFF   Ravens Snaps PFF   Steelers Snaps PFF   Browns Snaps PFF DE Cameron Jordan 1030 43.7   Richard Seymour 0 N/A   Derek Wolfe 566 -14.1   Charles Johnson 791 5 DE Corey Liuget 848 -3.3   Quinton Coples 834 -5.8   Alex Carrington 171 -3   Carlos Dunlap 999 15.6 DE                         David Bass 317 -7.9 DT Ahtyba Rubin 632 6.2   Haloti Ngata 714 14.5   Roy Miller 581 -11.9   Kyle Williams 970 37.3 DT Armond Armstead 0 N/A   Jesse Williams 0 N/A   Akiem Hicks 747 13.1   Glenn Dorsey 530 12.8 DT         Barry Cofield 739 9.5                 ILB Kiko Alonso 1176 6.2   Stephen Tulloch 1067 14.7   Vontaze Burfict 1102 11.4   Patrick Willis 1065 22.9 ILB DeVonte Holloman 214 -13   David Harris 1128 -1.3   Dannell Ellerbe 1030 -16.7         ILB                 Paul Worrilow 790 -13.7         OLB LaMarr Woodley 582 10.8   Bruce Irvin 600 7.9   Justin Houston 783 34.6   Arthur Brown 211 -0.4 OLB Ahmad Brooks 1161 -3.2   James Harrison 409 7.5   Junior Galette 950 5.8   Manny Lawson 722 4.4 OLB         Whitney Mercilus 970 -16.9                 CB Champ Bailey 333 -2.7   Stephon Gilmore 659 -2.6   Patrick Robinson 22 -0.1   Lardarius Webb 997 7.3 CB Cary Williams 1240 -4.5   Derek Cox 573 -12.3   Tyrann Mathieu 803 15.5   Xavier Rhodes 686 1.5 CB Dre Kirkpatrick 363 -9.8   Corey Graham 705 4   D.J. Hayden 353 -6.6   Richard Marshall 795 -11.3 CB         Brandon Harris 210 -0.9   Josh Norman 103 -2.1         FS Antrel Rolle 1155 7.4   Ryan Clark 1084 -1.5   Reshad Jones 1167 -6.9   Chris Clemons 1158 4.1 SS William Moore 1064 -2.7   Kenny Vaccaro 803 1.9   Mark Barron 854 -4.4   Jonathan Cyprien 1062 -17.5 S Josh Evans 682 -10.9           Tony Jefferson 202 2.1   Tashuan Gipson 1112 -6.9                                 K Caleb Sturgis   26.4   David Akers   6.9   Josh Brown   23.4   Robbie Gould   15.2 P Drew Butler   N/A   Michael Koenen   31.3   Brandon Fields   11.7   Bryan Anger   8.7                                 Fr7   5643 47.4     6461 30.1     6720 5.5     5605 89.7 Sec   4837 -23.2     4034 -11.4     3504 -2.5     5810 -22.8 ST   N/A 26.4     N/A 38.2     N/A 35.1     N/A 23.9 [/tablegrid] 
 

soxfan121

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More to say later but lumping two QB numbers together makes no sense. Obviously, Mike Glennon had a DNP in the RFP this year while carrying the clipboard for TB12.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This must be the best division in our league top to bottom. I'm having a hard time seeing a clear winner, although I'm leaning toward the Bengals without really doing a deep dive and before hearing from the owners themselves. I really have no idea who would finish last as all these teams are pretty good.
 

RhaegarTharen

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Dec 22, 2005
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Not to take anything away from the excellent drafting by the managers, but I'd love to see how the draft position varied by Division.   The AFC North had three teams picking in the Top 6, with the Browns picking 21st the outlier.   For contrast, the NFC North had three teams picking in the Bottom 7, with our highest slot the Bears at #20 overall. 
 
Edit:  Not complaining or trying to discredit - just found it interesting that the two divisions that we seem to agree have a lot of parity so far had a majority of teams drafting reasonably close to one another.  I'm only curious if, as we go through the rest, we find that vastly disparate drafting positions creates lopsided teams within Divisions. 
 

Super Nomario

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BTW, above numbers include playoffs.
 
The case for my team:
  • PFF underrates Kaepernick, who finished 7th in Y/A, 10th in QB rating, 3rd in QBR, 7th in WPA, and 6th in EPA. He finished 13th in B/R's recent NFL1000 scouting-based study. PFF's play-by-play method rewards consistency and penalizes guys like Kaepernick who are a little more boom-or-bust.
  • PFF underrates TE blocking in general. Only 22 of 135 TEs rated above 0.0 in run blocking, while 94 rated below. That means the best way for a TE to get a decent run block grade is to be such a bad run blocker he never plays in-line. Both my TE rated -10 or worse in run blocking; that number has to be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
  • Quinton Coples is a 6'5" 290-lber who played a lot of OLB in the Jets' defense thanks to the arrival of Sheldon Richardson. I'd have him in his more natural 5-technique role. Bruce Irvin, who was asked to play in space a lot due to Seattle's glut of pass-rushing riches, would get to pin his ears back and rush a lot more (he only had 112 pass-rushing snaps but graded out as the 4th-best pass-rushing 4-3 OLB).
  • I'm running a 3-4 on early downs with Coples - Ngata - Cofield (Ngata and Cofield can both play end or NT) and Harrison - Harris - Tulloch - Irvin behind. On passing downs, Harrison and one of Ngata / Cofield comes off, Coples kicks inside, and Irvin / Mercilus rush from the edges. I can keep my team fresh and put Mercilus a more limited role that plays to his strengths.
  • Greg Cosell on Stephon Gilmore: "I believe that Stephon Gilmore is on his way to being a top-three NFL cornerback.” On his way isn't there, but I think Gilmore's better than his PFF grade (he allowed just a 72.7 passer rating on throws his way, despite often matching up against teams' #1 WRs).
  • Even PFF knows they're underrating Kenny Vaccaro - they named him to their All-Rookie and all-NFC South team and have him as a light green / bordering on dark green in their Saints projected lineup.
No excuses for my 2 worst players - Konz and Cox really were that bad, getting pushed to the bench despite being a 2nd-round pick the year before (in Konz' case) and signing a pretty big contract in the prior offseason (in Cox'). And the Crabtree / Nicks combo that was supposed to be the strength of my team never emerged due to Crabtree's injury and the Giants' general dysfunction. Still, I think I have a pretty decent squad.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Dallas
A few things for us:
 
J. Cyprien would not have played nearly the amount of snaps he did - same with Richard Marshall. They are part-time players. Marshall is a 3rd corner. Cyprien is our 3rd safety. 
 
Once you factor that in our secondary looks a lot better.
 
I think with our front four consistently generating a shit ton of pressure our secondary can be more physical and we'd be a top 5 team against the pass. 
 
On offense, what can I say? We have a decent core of WRs, 2 very good RBs, and a tight end who can get seperation and make plays even if he is technically not "the guy" anymore in Denver. Tamme is a good option as a receiving TE.
 
Our QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He would have given us average QB play at best. But with our line, and skill personnel I think we'd actually be an above average to average offense. And with the field position our D and special teams give us I think these guys would rack up some points.
 
I know I'm biased but I think we win this division based on the strength of our front 4/7.
 

Super Nomario

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NFL 1000 rankings:
 
QBs:
Tom Brady, Bengals - 5th
Mike Glennon, Bengals - 18th
Colin Kaepernick, Ravens - 13th
Russell Wilson, Steelers - 3rd
Tyler Wilson, Browns - Not Rated
Blaine Gabbert, Browns - NR
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Browns - 50th
 
LTs:
Mike Adams, Bengals - 29th
Ricky Wanger, Bengals - NR
Anthony Castonzo, Ravens - 17th
Tyron Smith, Steelers - 6th
Michael Roos, Browns - 13th
Cordy Glenn, Browns - 10th
 
FBs:
Marcel Reece, Steelers - 3rd
 
RTs:
Phil Loadholt, Bengals - 8th
Anthony Davis, Ravens - 6th
Don Barclay, Ravens - 33rd
Jordan Mills, Steelers - 21st
 
Cs:
Nick McDonald, Bengals - NR
Evan Dietrich-Smith, Bengals - 5th
Peter Konz, Ravens - 30th
Ted Larsen, Steelers - NR
Gino Gradkowski, Browns - 32nd
 
Gs:
Mike Iupati, Bengals - 28th
Brandon Moore, Bengals - NR
J.R. Sweezy, Bengals - 44th
Kory Lichtensteiger, Ravens - 42nd
Alex Boone, Ravens - 25th
Amini Silatolu, Steelers - NR
Kelechi Osemele, Steelers - 45th
Brandon Fusco, Steelers - 10th
Jon Asamoah, Browns - 21st
Chad Rinehart, Browns - 48th
Nate Potter, Browns - NR
 

SeoulSoxFan

I Want to Hit the World with Rocket Punch
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A Scud Away from Hell
I swung and missed on a shitload of picks, but I can sleep easier on having the best AND youngest QB / LT / WR1 combo in the division (sorry Kaeps)
 

soxfan121

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Defensively, things did not go according to plan for the Bengals. Aside from Cameron Jordan, the rest of the team was either pedestrian or below average. No one was flat-out awful but the secondary, as a unit, would have been torched quite frequently. No lead would be safe and there wouldn't be very many big stops. That said, this isn't the 2010-12 Patriots - we'd have gotten a few stops and a few picks and would have been better than 32nd in pass defense. But not much better. Obviously, replacing Champ Bailey (what a dumb pick) is an off-season priority. The young LB in the middle (Alonso & Holloman) figure to improve and Holloman can't be worse than he was late in the real season or he won't make the team. Yeti Armond Armstead's absence hurt but I think the front four would have been the strength of this defense, followed by Antrel Rolle's strong work as the 3rd CB/slot CB/TE coverage weapon. I bet William Moore had over 100 tackles for this team, most of them more than 5 yards from the LOS. 
 
Anyway, we didn't have enough snaps to pull off a 4 man front, so this was a 3-man front (which fits with Jordan's skillset, at least) and Holloman played a ton at LILB, with Bailey/Kirkpatrick barely playing enough to be a viable (and bad) 3rd CB. 
 
Offensively, Tom Brady. 
 
I don't think I need to spend a lot of time convincing this audience that Brady's real 2013 was affected by the health and youth of his receivers. While there was some evidence of regression, most of the raw & advanced stat regression can be placed with the injuries to Gronk/Amendola/Vereen and the youth/issues with Dobson/Thompkins/etc.
 
In this RFP, Brady had three very solid, productive and smart WR to work with, all of whom were mostly healthy all year. The Bengals of RFP would definitely used Andre Ellington more, especially in the passing game, and would have used James Casey much more than he was used in real life. And Toilolo would have produced more in an offense where he wasn't a backup to a HOF'er.
 
Anyhow, I think that despite a shaky left tackle, this offense would have been better than the offense Brady actually orchestrated in 2013. Which means that no matter what QB adjustment you're making, add a few upticks to it. It is motherfucking Tom Brady. You don't think Tom Brady in the RFP looked poor against the RFP Browns defense for three quarters before deciding - "there's no way I'm losing to Ryan Fucking Fitzpatrick" - and then led a comeback win? 2013 Tom Brady in the real world made chicken salad out of chickenshit - often. In the RFP, Brady made chicken salad into Thanksgiving Dinner with all the trimmings AND he washed the dishes for your mom. 
 

SMU_Sox

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The one thing that beats Brady is consistent pressure. I mean that beats most QB's but especially less mobile ones. While I think you have a really good squad, 121, I think our squad is in particular a bad matchup for you due to the level of pressure we can dial up with just 4 guys. YMMV.
 

soxfan121

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Like I said, three bad quarters every time he sees you.  And then he remembers he's Tom Fucking Brady. 
 
I don't need anything more in the argument. I'm not suggesting he's better than we all think - I'm saying he is as good as we know. 
 
We might have lost the road division game to you on a bullshit flag or something at the end but there's no way you can think Tom Brady loses to Ryan Fitzpatrick TWICE without SSF banning you from BBTL.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I do think this division comes down to Bengals versus Browns.
 
I think the Bengals' defense is a bit underrated by the PFF stats.  The front seven features four guys at the DE and OLB positions that can bring pressure. Alonso had a great year in the middle and while the corners are awful the safeties are pretty good.  Teams that can really throw the ball are going to rip them on occasion but they're pretty decent, especially for a team that prioritized offense high in the draft.  The Browns, on the other hand, just look like monsters on defense.  That DL is scary good, you've got Willis cleaning up behind them, and impressive man corners.  The safeties are really the only weakness, although that weakness can be exploited to significant effect at times.
 
On the flip side, I think the Browns can score some points on offense, leaning heavily on their OL and running game, but a couple aspects of their roster construction (other than the obvious QB issue) bother me.  For one, with the injuries/retirements of Kelce and Swope and the general mediocrity of Tamme and Robinson, I think they could have the kind of problem the 49ers faced this year - 3rd through 5th options in the passing game that are basically terrible.  Putting multiple truly replacement level guys into routes really makes the defense's job a lot easier.  In addition, while Jennings and Bowe are both solid #2 type receivers, at this point in their careers neither are guys who are going to regularly defeat coverage (either doubles or man from an elite CB) that is geared toward stopping them and neither is a great red zone receiver.  In sum, I think the Browns will be a force on the ground but really struggle to throw the ball and convert in the red zone, for reasons even beyond Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Bengals have a few problems on offense of their own but they've got Tom Brady throwing to an elite trio of receivers (don't sleep on Kendall Wright's breakout year), which is enough to put up 24+ on a regular basis.
 
I think these teams are pretty evenly matched but in today's NFL I'm generally going to lean toward the squad that can put up lots of points through the air.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I do think this division comes down to Bengals versus Browns.
 
I think the Bengals' defense is a bit underrated by the PFF stats.  The front seven features four guys at the DE and OLB positions that can bring pressure. Alonso had a great year in the middle and while the corners are awful the safeties are pretty good.  Teams that can really throw the ball are going to rip them on occasion but they're pretty decent, especially for a team that prioritized offense high in the draft.  The Browns, on the other hand, just look like monsters on defense.  That DL is scary good, you've got Willis cleaning up behind them, and impressive man corners.  The safeties are really the only weakness, although that weakness can be exploited to significant effect at times.
 
On the flip side, I think the Browns can score some points on offense, leaning heavily on their OL and running game, but a couple aspects of their roster construction (other than the obvious QB issue) bother me.  For one, with the injuries/retirements of Kelce and Swope and the general mediocrity of Tamme and Robinson, I think they could have the kind of problem the 49ers faced this year - 3rd through 5th options in the passing game that are basically terrible.  Putting multiple truly replacement level guys into routes really makes the defense's job a lot easier.  In addition, while Jennings and Bowe are both solid #2 type receivers, at this point in their careers neither are guys who are going to regularly defeat coverage (either doubles or man from an elite CB) that is geared toward stopping them and neither is a great red zone receiver.  In sum, I think the Browns will be a force on the ground but really struggle to throw the ball and convert in the red zone, for reasons even beyond Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Bengals have a few problems on offense of their own but they've got Tom Brady throwing to an elite trio of receivers (don't sleep on Kendall Wright's breakout year), which is enough to put up 24+ on a regular basis.
 
I think these teams are pretty evenly matched but in today's NFL I'm generally going to lean toward the squad that can put up lots of points through the air.
 
The whole "Tom Brady would put up 20+ with these receivers" thing just doesn't pass the smell test to me.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can get pressure with their front 4. Even with great players around him.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can jam the middle of the field. Even with great players around him.
 
This defense is stacked. While we don't have a Richard Sherman type corner, Lardarius Webb can do a pretty good imitation of him (and Webb can play anywhere, unlike Sherman). I don't think our defense is exactly equal to this years Seattle squad, but in a lot of ways, they're similar.
 
We have a front four that can both pin their ears back to get after the QB, as well as defend against the run without much help. We have fast, quick, agile linebackers that can move around the field. While Arthur Brown played sparingly with the Ravens, he would have been a perfect OLB in our system (and the Seahawks), where his diminutive size (6'0 235lb) would have been a benefit, not a detriment.
 
We have a young, tall, strong, rangy cornerback in Xavier Rhodes (6'2 215lb) to balance out receivers opposite Webb. Considering the strength and ability of our front 4, having that freak athlete at corner who can play bump and run and take away that valuable first 2 second window for Brady to get a read would be huge. He would flourish (even more than he already did as a rookie) in our system.
 
While it's certainly not an exact comparison, how do people think Tom Brady would have done this year against the Seahawks defense?
 
That's what I thought.
 
Go Browns.
 

Phragle

wild card bitches
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Jan 1, 2009
13,154
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Great job picking Brady and giving him a shitty O line, 121.
 
Great job whiffing on the most important part of a team, KFP & SMU.
 
Great job building teams that are good but can't separate from the other teams, SN and SSF.
 

soxfan121

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of Tom Brady being awesome.
 
I do like that the Browns aren't trying to insult us with insistence that their offense is good. Hey, if you think the Browns are the 2000 Ravens or 86 Bears...have a day.
 
And phragle? Suck it, pal.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
The whole "Tom Brady would put up 20+ with these receivers" thing just doesn't pass the smell test to me.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can get pressure with their front 4. Even with great players around him.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can jam the middle of the field. Even with great players around him.
 
This defense is stacked. While we don't have a Richard Sherman type corner, Lardarius Webb can do a pretty good imitation of him (and Webb can play anywhere, unlike Sherman). I don't think our defense is exactly equal to this years Seattle squad, but in a lot of ways, they're similar.
 
We have a front four that can both pin their ears back to get after the QB, as well as defend against the run without much help. We have fast, quick, agile linebackers that can move around the field. While Arthur Brown played sparingly with the Ravens, he would have been a perfect OLB in our system (and the Seahawks), where his diminutive size (6'0 235lb) would have been a benefit, not a detriment.
 
We have a young, tall, strong, rangy cornerback in Xavier Rhodes (6'2 215lb) to balance out receivers opposite Webb. Considering the strength and ability of our front 4, having that freak athlete at corner who can play bump and run and take away that valuable first 2 second window for Brady to get a read would be huge. He would flourish (even more than he already did as a rookie) in our system.
 
While it's certainly not an exact comparison, how do people think Tom Brady would have done this year against the Seahawks defense?
 
That's what I thought.
 
Go Browns.
 
I'm not necessarily saying that he'd put up 20+ on you guys but that's not really the issue.
 
I make h-2-h games between your two teams a tossup and I can't see a good argument to make either of you guys a favorite in that matchup.  But which team would win more games over a 16 game schedule?  I tend to think a high powered passing offense trumps when it comes to that question.  You guys are going to play a bunch of tight low scoring games that are decided by a turnover or big play in the 4th quarter.  SF121 is going to blow out more teams.  I think both of you win more than you lose - I definitely see you guys as a likely WC team - but my bet would be on the offensive-minded team finishing with the better record.  For the most part, I think recent NFL history tends to support this idea - dominance in the regular season is skewed toward teams that can really throw the ball.   The playoffs may be a different matter, with defenses that can match up with those offenses becoming a bigger factor.
 
I have SF121 winning but I think all the other teams in this division could be in the mix for a WC spot.  I've been talking about the Browns but the Ravens and Steelers both have a lot of talent (despite a few key injuries) and seem underrated overall by the PFF scores.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

posts way less than 18% useful shit
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soxfan121 said:
 
I'm sorry, I can't hear you over the sound of Tom Brady being awesome.
 
I do like that the Browns aren't trying to insult us with insistence that their offense is good. Hey, if you think the Browns are the 2000 Ravens or 86 Bears...have a day.
 
And phragle? Suck it, pal.
 
 
you're welcome.

Seriously, though. Our offense is good.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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FWIW, in all honesty...
 
I see this team has a mid/late 2000's Baltimore Ravens type team. Dominant defense that a team may be able to ride to the SuperBowl. I don't think there's any question that, without a better QB, we aren't SuperBowl bound. The league is too QB driven. For every Trent Dilfer lead Super Bowl team, there's dozens of good/great defenses that can't carry their team over the hump.
 

Super Nomario

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
The whole "Tom Brady would put up 20+ with these receivers" thing just doesn't pass the smell test to me.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can get pressure with their front 4. Even with great players around him.
 
We've seen him struggle consistently with teams that can jam the middle of the field. Even with great players around him.
 
While it's certainly not an exact comparison, how do people think Tom Brady would have done this year against the Seahawks defense?
Brady put up 23 on the Seahawks last year in Seattle, throwing for more than 400 yards (he did have two picks). The Pats couldn't run on the Seahawks at all, which I think would be true of any team in our division against your Browns. I think the Bengals could move the ball with quick passes like the Pats did last year against Seattle; Webb could take away one of Cruz / Smith / Wright, but the other two are a tough matchup for Rhodes / Marshall, especially if they shift and make Rhodes play in the slot. There are times when the rush would get to Brady (the Bengals OL isn't horrible but LT is a serious problem), and I think you'd give them problems in the red zone, but I think they probably put up 17-24 points? The game probably comes down to turnovers, and you have to like Brady over Fitzpatrick in that case.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Super Nomario said:
Brady put up 23 on the Seahawks last year in Seattle, throwing for more than 400 yards (he did have two picks). The Pats couldn't run on the Seahawks at all, which I think would be true of any team in our division against your Browns. I think the Bengals could move the ball with quick passes like the Pats did last year against Seattle; Webb could take away one of Cruz / Smith / Wright, but the other two are a tough matchup for Rhodes / Marshall, especially if they shift and make Rhodes play in the slot. There are times when the rush would get to Brady (the Bengals OL isn't horrible but LT is a serious problem), and I think you'd give them problems in the red zone, but I think they probably put up 17-24 points? The game probably comes down to turnovers, and you have to like Brady over Fitzpatrick in that case.
 
All things being equal, the Patriots 2012 offense was much better then SF121's offense.
 
Cruz/Welker are a wash.
 
In case people haven't been paying attention, Steve Smith finally fell off a cliff. Levine Toilolo showed nothing last year. We have no idea how Ellington would have held up with a full workload, but we do know that he probably would not have had any better of a season than Ridley had last year.
 
That leaves Wright against Brandon Lloyd, where Wright only had 100 more yards than Lloyd.
 
​And that doesn't include Gronk, Hernandez, and an infinitely better line. 
 
Sorry, I still don't see Brady putting up 20 against this defense. 5 years ago? Sure. Now, I don't see it.
 

Super Nomario

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Kenny F'ing Powers said:
 
All things being equal, the Patriots 2012 offense was much better then SF121's offense.
 
Cruz/Welker are a wash.
 
In case people haven't been paying attention, Steve Smith finally fell off a cliff. Levine Toilolo showed nothing last year. We have no idea how Ellington would have held up with a full workload, but we do know that he probably would not have had any better of a season than Ridley had last year.
 
That leaves Wright against Brandon Lloyd, where Wright only had 100 more yards than Lloyd.
 
​And that doesn't include Gronk, Hernandez, and an infinitely better line. 
 
Sorry, I still don't see Brady putting up 20 against this defense. 5 years ago? Sure. Now, I don't see it.
Steve Smith has more in the tank than Deion Branch did in 2012, but I generally agree that the Pats' 2012 offense was better in almost every respect than SF121's Bengals. That's not really harsh criticism; the 2012 Pats averaged 35 points a game. But the Seahawks had the best secondary in football, while your Browns have just an average one. And that game was in Seattle, by far the toughest road conditions in football.
 

Phragle

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soxfan121 said:
And phragle? Suck it, pal.
What else can I say? This is a really close and you have the GOAT at QB.

Kenny F'ing Powers said:
Sorry, I still don't see Brady putting up 20 against this defense. 5 years ago? Sure. Now, I don't see it.
 
You think Brady's talent has declined?
 

SMU_Sox

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Webb and Rhodes with Clemons and Gipson is a pretty good combination for a secondary. Sure Cyprien and Marshall are mediocre depth but you have to remember that we also have Patrick Willis who is an excellent coverage LB. We're playing man with a ferocious pass rush.
 
Teams with strong defenses have done well in the playoffs recently as they have been able to get away with more physical play. I think we'd go 1-1 against the Bengals in the regular season and might not win the division (although I think we would) but as a WC team I think we have a very strong chance to play in the conference championship game or even the SB. TB struggles against our type of pass rush which comes from up the gut and both sides. The Bengals have 3 weak links on their O-Line. I just don't see how they can get away with that considering the caliber of our front 4. LG, LT, and RG are either bad or average. You have a good C and RT. But that line is going to get taxed. 
 

soxfan121

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phragle said:
What else can I say? This is a really close and you have the GOAT at QB.

 
You think Brady's talent has declined?
 
1. You are, of course, correct. My OL was the weak link of the Bengals offense. A solid LT and a healthy year from Iupati and I could rightfully be bragging about KFP being insane. But Mike Adams was bad, Wagner was no better, Sweezy sucked, McDonald didn't play and Moore retired. That I got a great year out of Loadholt and a good one from EDS doesn't mitigate the fact that the line would have been leaky, especially against good defenses. 
 
Of course, the 2013 Patriots line was at times leaky and Brady still was Tom Fucking Brady. 
 
2. I think there's been some minor regression. But in perspective, if he was at the summit of Everest, he's still above 26,000 feet. What would you call something like that?
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Super Nomario said:
Steve Smith has more in the tank than Deion Branch did in 2012, but I generally agree that the Pats' 2012 offense was better in almost every respect than SF121's Bengals. That's not really harsh criticism; the 2012 Pats averaged 35 points a game. But the Seahawks had the best secondary in football, while your Browns have just an average one. And that game was in Seattle, by far the toughest road conditions in football.
 
Welcome to the Dog Pound, bitch!
 

SMU_Sox

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Yeah, look, 121, we'd gladly have your QB. I think you are at the very least a WC team. I wouldn't want to face you in the playoffs.This division is ultra competitive. 
 
In the playoffs I bet on the teams with good defense and did pretty well. I think teams with good D tend to win when the going gets tough and the refs partially swallow their whistles. That's why I like our squad. You can win with a mediocre QB who goes on a hot streak. But look at the last SB winners: 2007 Giants had a great D when they got healthy and Manning played well, 2008 Steelers - great D 1 dvoa, 2009 Packers 2nd best weighted dvoa, 2010 Saints - top 10 dvoa. 2011 - Giants - yep, good D. 2012 - Ravens, mediocre D but played well in the playoffs. 2013 Hawks - duh.
 
The last time a team with a bad defensive dvoa won was the 2006 Colts.
 
Defense doesn't always win but I'll take my chances with it.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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SMU_Sox said:
Yeah, look, 121, we'd gladly have your QB. I think you are at the very least a WC team. I wouldn't want to face you in the playoffs.This division is ultra competitive. 
 
In the playoffs I bet on the teams with good defense and did pretty well. I think teams with good D tend to win when the going gets tough and the refs partially swallow their whistles. That's why I like our squad. You can win with a mediocre QB who goes on a hot streak. But look at the last SB winners: 2007 Giants had a great D when they got healthy and Manning played well, 2008 Steelers - great D 1 dvoa, 2009 Packers 2nd best weighted dvoa, 2010 Saints - top 10 dvoa. 2011 - Giants - yep, good D. 2012 - Ravens, mediocre D but played well in the playoffs. 2013 Hawks - duh.
 
The last time a team with a bad defensive dvoa won was the 2006 Colts.
 
Defense doesn't always win but I'll take my chances with it.
 
This is how I feel about the playoffs.
 
As a regular season? I'm really at 50-50. I know people are going to knock the team for a weaker QB, but I think with a fantastic line and great RB, we can really limit Fitzpatrick to 15-18 throws a game and a team can still be successful there.
 
I wouldn't knock anyone for favoring the team with the better QB, but we've seen this methodology fail in the playoffs time and again over the past decade.
 

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Well what are we doing with NFL retirements? There's Seymour and Moore in this division. Kind of a big deal. I think if they got the contracts they wanted they'd still be playing in real life. Same with Rhodes on Mascho's team.
 

Super Nomario

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SMU_Sox said:
Yeah, look, 121, we'd gladly have your QB. I think you are at the very least a WC team. I wouldn't want to face you in the playoffs.This division is ultra competitive. 
 
In the playoffs I bet on the teams with good defense and did pretty well. I think teams with good D tend to win when the going gets tough and the refs partially swallow their whistles. That's why I like our squad. You can win with a mediocre QB who goes on a hot streak. But look at the last SB winners: 2007 Giants had a great D when they got healthy and Manning played well, 2008 Steelers - great D 1 dvoa, 2009 Packers 2nd best weighted dvoa, 2010 Saints - top 10 dvoa. 2011 - Giants - yep, good D. 2012 - Ravens, mediocre D but played well in the playoffs. 2013 Hawks - duh.
 
The last time a team with a bad defensive dvoa won was the 2006 Colts.
 
Defense doesn't always win but I'll take my chances with it.
2009 Saints and 2011 Giants had below-average defensive DVOAs. I think those teams (and the 2006 Colts) saw their Ds play better in the playoffs than they did in the regular season. At that point it becomes tautological though. Ultimately I don't think it's really true that a great D is a better ticket to a championship than a great O.
 
Your team could certainly win it all if Ryan Fitzpatrick goes four games in a row without throwing a pick, as Eli and Flacco did in their runs. I'm not betting on that one though.
 
 
phragle said:
Well what are we doing with NFL retirements? There's Seymour and Moore in this division. Kind of a big deal. I think if they got the contracts they wanted they'd still be playing in real life. Same with Rhodes on Mascho's team.
I think we have to assume they retire in the RFP world, too, as much as I'd like Big Sey in my front.
 

soxfan121

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1. Ryan Fitzpatrick is significantly worse than any QB that has made, let alone won, a Super Bowl. Using words like "mediocre" obscures (or deploys a smokescreen) around the truth of the situation - that Ryan Fitzpatrick sucks. Always has, always will. His best 16 game sample (which wasn't this season) is still below average in all the things you want from the position. 
 
So, while I appreciate that SMU/KFP built themselves a very good, well-above average defense, they didn't build the 2000 Ravens or the 1986 Bears - both of which had QBs who were much, much better than Ryan Fitzpatrick on his best day. 
 
2. The underrated team here in this division is Nomario's Ravens. And I think my team would have been beaten soundly at least once by SSF's Steelers due to their running game. 
 
3. Very tough division, maybe the RFP's toughest. My entire argument for being the winner is that I have Tom MotherFucking Brady. So it's amusing to watch Patriot fans try to argue that Tom Brady wasn't good enough to beat Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Bengals defense wasn't great - but it was good enough to hold down Fitzy and his 15 passing attempts a game. Shit...this isn't the 1970s and you cannot win with a QB even the coaches admit is liability and can't throw more than 15 passes a game. Not unless you have the 2000 Ravens or 1986 Bears defense...which you don't have. Sorry.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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It's not like Tom Motherfucking Brady ever lost to a lesser QB. He never lost to a Geno Smith or a Mark Sanchez or Colt McCoy or Ryan Fitzpatrick. 
 
Oh, wait.....
 
Well, it's not like he ever loss to Mark Sanchez in an important game.
 
Really? 
 
Shit...
 
Uhh, yeah....
 
Tom Brady is teh awesome!!11!!!!1
 

SMU_Sox

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Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than Trent Dilfer and Doug Williams to name two. He is a below average QB but:
 
He had a higher Y/A in 2013 than: Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, RG3, Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning, and Matt Ryan.
 
QB Rating: 23rd. There are 32 QB's. He's below average but not OMG worst QB ever.
 
Completion Percent: 14th. 
 
He's not good, I get that. But give him time to throw and a running game? He'd be fine. His stats say he isn't nearly that bad. He has had a few terrible games - and he's also had a few brilliant ones. You could ding him for being inconsistent and I wouldn't argue. But to say that he's not as good as guys like Dilfer, Williams, Jeff fucking Hostetler, Jim Plunkett, Mark Rypien? Come on - that's bull and you know it. And I haven't even touched the SB losing QB's. Rex fucking Grossman got to a SB. Tone down the hyperbole. He's a below average QB who can get hot.
 

SMU_Sox

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Trent Dilfer:
 
TDs: 113, INTs: 129, Completion Percent: 55.5%, Y/A: 6.47, QB Rating: 70.2
 
Ryan Fitzpatrick:
 
Went to Harvard so + 10 imaginary points.
 
TDs: 106, INTs: 93, Completion Percent: 59.8%, Y/A: 6.46, QB Rating: 77.5.
 
Dilfer was so bad the Ravens got rid of him AFTER he won a SB with them. While we might do the same thing with Fitzpatrick after we win our imaginary Lombardi to suggest he's worse than Dilfer is just misguided imho.
 
Here's my bottom line: Fitzpatrick is a game managing QB. We would tell him to tone down his risk taking a bit given the strength of the D. He'd be a thoroughly mediocre QB who probably dinks and dunks while handing the ball off.
 
He's beaten Tom Brady before on an inferior Bills team in 2011: he went 27/40 for 369 yards, QBR of 88 and a QB Rating of 92.6. Look, that's not saying much. I know. But it does prove that he is capable of big games against the likes of TB who is btw my favorite and fantasy QB of all time ;)
 

Super Nomario

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SMU_Sox said:
Trent Dilfer:
 
TDs: 113, INTs: 129, Completion Percent: 55.5%, Y/A: 6.47, QB Rating: 70.2
 
Ryan Fitzpatrick:
 
Went to Harvard so + 10 imaginary points.
 
TDs: 106, INTs: 93, Completion Percent: 59.8%, Y/A: 6.46, QB Rating: 77.5.
 
Dilfer was so bad the Ravens got rid of him AFTER he won a SB with them. While we might do the same thing with Fitzpatrick after we win our imaginary Lombardi to suggest he's worse than Dilfer is just misguided imho.
Raw number comparisons are unfair because Dilfer played in a less pass-happy era. The YPAs are almost identical, but Dilfer's was 6% worse than league average; Fitzpatrick's is 11% worse than league average. It looks like Dilfer threw way more picks (and he was 14% worse than league average), but Fitzpatrick was nearly as bad (12% worse than average). Actually, these guys are 1-2 in worst interception rate since 1994, given a minimum of attempts.
 
SMU_Sox said:
Here's my bottom line: Fitzpatrick is a game managing QB. We would tell him to tone down his risk taking a bit given the strength of the D. He'd be a thoroughly mediocre QB who probably dinks and dunks while handing the ball off.
The problem with Fitz as a "game manager" is that he's an INT machine. He's a dink-and-dunker, but he also throws a lot of picks. His best quality is he has a quick release to avoid sacks, but I'm not sure that helps you guys that much because you already have a good OL.
 

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soxfan121 said:
1. You are, of course, correct. My OL was the weak link of the Bengals offense. A solid LT and a healthy year from Iupati and I could rightfully be bragging about KFP being insane. But Mike Adams was bad, Wagner was no better, Sweezy sucked, McDonald didn't play and Moore retired. That I got a great year out of Loadholt and a good one from EDS doesn't mitigate the fact that the line would have been leaky, especially against good defenses. 
 
If you don't go offense early and often this offseason I'm going to figuratively kill you. I should never have to ask myself if Brady can beat Fitzpatrick, and that's on you, jerk.
 
Super Nomario said:
I think we have to assume they retire in the RFP world, 
 
Dang because that would have been enough to tip the scales.
 

soxfan121

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SMU_Sox said:
Tone down the hyperbole. He's a below average QB who can get hot.
 
I'm offended. I haven't engaged in 1/10th the hyperbole I could have in this discussion.
 
I mean...y'all did draft two other QBs before the Great and Powerful Fitzpatrick. How many quarters/games did you give those turkeys before turning the keys over to Fitzy? Or did you pull a Dennis Allen, decide Tyler Wilson was shit just weeks after proclaiming him your starter and give the job to Blaine "I suck" Gabbert? How many games did you give Gabbert before turning to Fitzy? Because however many it took, you lost. 
 
I really don't know what I could say that would satisfy you on this issue...I think I've acknowledged that your team is very good, your defense is very good, that we would have struggled against you, etc. Don't hate the Trump Card. When down 6 points in the 4th quarter, with the ball in Tom Brady's hands - who's winning that game? Or, needing a 3rd & 8 to keep the ball and run out the clock - who's winning that game?
 
Maybe we split the H-2-H. More likely, Brady drives a knife into your heart after a late Fitzpatrick incompletion that would have iced the game, twice. 
 
Super Nomario said:
Raw number comparisons are unfair because Dilfer played in a less pass-happy era. The YPAs are almost identical, but Dilfer's was 6% worse than league average; Fitzpatrick's is 11% worse than league average. It looks like Dilfer threw way more picks (and he was 14% worse than league average), but Fitzpatrick was nearly as bad (12% worse than average). Actually, these guys are 1-2 in worst interception rate since 1994, given a minimum of attempts.
 
Ed Hillel thinking the Bills signed a "top 15" QB when they extended Fitzy is still one of my favorite BBtL moments, ever.
 
phragle said:
 
If you don't go offense early and often this offseason I'm going to figuratively kill you. I should never have to ask myself if Brady can beat Fitzpatrick, and that's on you, jerk.
 
No doubt. That is my fault for going Loadholt instead of a left tackle and then counting on Mike Adams. I don't know how I could have foreseen Brandon Moore retiring - he had an offer to be a starting G for the Cowboys, where he would have been an upgrade on what they ended up with. 
 
But yes, offense is the key. The WR spot might need a perimeter guy to replace Steve Asshole Smith sooner rather than later, the TE need to improve and while BJGE would have been just fine diving forward and getting 3 yards, Ellington cannot handle more than a Woodhead role in the Bengals offense. 
 
And I am so disappointed I didn't get a "DANGER ZONE" from you that I stopped following you on twitter.
 

Super Nomario

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soxfan121 said:
I mean...y'all did draft two other QBs before the Great and Powerful Fitzpatrick. How many quarters/games did you give those turkeys before turning the keys over to Fitzy? Or did you pull a Dennis Allen, decide Tyler Wilson was shit just weeks after proclaiming him your starter and give the job to Blaine "I suck" Gabbert? How many games did you give Gabbert before turning to Fitzy? Because however many it took, you lost. 
This is a fair point. Cyprien / Gipson is another similar spot. On my squad, I'd like to think I would have played Barclay (at LG) over Konz (with Lichtensteiger moving to C) ... but realistically, it probably would have taken me half a season to make the move. 
 
soxfan121 said:
Ed Hillel thinking the Bills signed a "top 15" QB when they extended Fitzy is still one of my favorite BBtL moments, ever.
The Bills started that year 5-2 ... and went on a 7-game losing streak like 8 days after he signed that contract. Fitz ended up leading the NFL in picks that season.
 
soxfan121 said:
No doubt. That is my fault for going Loadholt instead of a left tackle and then counting on Mike Adams. I don't know how I could have foreseen Brandon Moore retiring - he had an offer to be a starting G for the Cowboys, where he would have been an upgrade on what they ended up with. 
I remember how bummed you were that you had to settle for Adams ... instead of the guy you really wanted, Jonathan Martin. Nick McDonald was the other bummer; you replaced him ably with Dietrich-Smith, but it was just a waste of a pick.
 
To be fair, I was bummed I missed out on both Markus Wheaton and Ryan Swope.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Ed Hillel thinking the Bills signed a "top 15" QB when they extended Fitzy is still one of my favorite BBtL moments, ever.
 
Another one is when everyone tried to tell me Flacco was worth 121 million. Good times, good times.
 
soxfan121 said:
No doubt. That is my fault for going Loadholt instead of a left tackle and then counting on Mike Adams. I don't know how I could have foreseen Brandon Moore retiring - he had an offer to be a starting G for the Cowboys, where he would have been an upgrade on what they ended up with. 
 
But yes, offense is the key. The WR spot might need a perimeter guy to replace Steve Asshole Smith sooner rather than later, the TE need to improve and while BJGE would have been just fine diving forward and getting 3 yards, Ellington cannot handle more than a Woodhead role in the Bengals offense.
 
Moore retired from embarrassment and a permanently bruised ass. How could you not?
 
soxfan121 said:
And I am so disappointed I didn't get a "DANGER ZONE" from you that I stopped following you on twitter.
 
Aw man, I didn't even know you were on the twitter. I've stopped using Danger Zone since Curll defiled it, said Ripley to the android Bishop.
 

soxfan121

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phragle said:
 
Another one is when everyone tried to tell me Flacco was worth 121 million. Good times, good times.
 
Nothing good has ever been associated with the number 121.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Everyone loves Matt Waldman's chat. 
 
Everyone loves Matt Waldman.
 
Fuck off you Fitzpatrick haters.
 

Fitzpatrick is a quality backup. If I were a GM/personnel man for an NFL team, I'd be satisfied with Fitzpatrick as my backup who can keep my team competitive for the short-term. He understands defenses, plays with an aggressive mindset, and doesn't shrink against competition.
 
He's a "quality" backup.
 
He can keep teams competitive in the short term (ie, one season or so).
 
He won't shrink against competition (see: Tom Brady).
 
Fuck you. The division is ours. All you people who want to vote otherwise are doing so out of spite and you know it.
 
Go Browns.
 
Bitches.
 
Yeah.
 

soxfan121

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I like the creative definition of "short term". I mean, you could look into the numbers, realize Fitzy has some decent 6 game stretches in his history and then try to cobble together some scenario where Gabbert is truly atrocious in a 6-3 win...but no. Let's go with "short term" equaling "one season". 
 
That's 18% correct.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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soxfan121 said:
I like the creative definition of "short term". I mean, you could look into the numbers, realize Fitzy has some decent 6 game stretches in his history and then try to cobble together some scenario where Gabbert is truly atrocious in a 6-3 win...but no. Let's go with "short term" equaling "one season". 
 
That's 18% correct.
 
18% of the time, it works every time.