Red Sox Deadline Discussion (nothing is credible) thread

[NDame616]

Aren't we all smart enough to go along with the "most of the stuff you hear about the week before the trade deadline is lie" mindset?

It greatly benefits the Phillies for the entire league to think the Red Sox are in on Hamels and actively looking to trade for him. Maybe someone saw the Sox scout at his last game and "leaked" that to up the pressure on a rival.

I'm no fan of BC, but I can't think he's dumb enough to trade for Hamels at the trade deadline.

 

[OCD SS]

The problem being that "Sonny Gray type" pitchers are simply not available. But other than that

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

You know how "Sonny Gray type" pitchers become available to teams?
 
A good amateur scouting team, considerable luck in development, and not getting traded away for a big name and a bigger splash.
 
I hope the Sox just stand pat this deadline, and resist the urge to sell off guys like JBJ and Owens and Johnson. Much less any of the A-ball "lottery tickets" like Margot, Ball, Guerra, Devers, or Moncada.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Joining the chorus on this.  I wasn't a fan of the proposed deal for Hamel in the offseason (a little too long in the tooth for me) and I honestly don't see Ben doing this now unless the Phillies are taking someone off our hands- which I also don't see, or eating a ton of his salary.  Depending on how much salary, then I could see how this could make sense (if it's roughly 50%... but then, the prospect package would be significant... ugh) to Ben.  Getting a potential and historical ace for less than 13 million per season would be nice in the rotation or even attractive (hopefully) after 2 very good months in the AL East to an offseason deal for a different team.
Totally spitballing here, and while just waiting until the glut of pitchers hit the market this offseason makes way more sense... I worry that this FO has been trying to out-think every other team and ends up over thinking and tying themselves up in knots

 

[yecul]

Boston should be in contact with them. Why wouldn't you want them to be? They should be in talks with lots of teams about lots of players. There is a big difference between a rumor of a pending move and Boston keeping tabs.

Much ado over nothing.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The problem being that "Sonny Gray type" pitchers are simply not available. But other than that

Well that's clearly and historically not been totally true.  But the prospect talent package that Beane would fleece Ben with in return would be painful.  I would imagine if Ben offered up Swihart, Devers and Merrero he wouldn't hang up

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

You know how "Sonny Gray type" pitchers become available to teams?
 
A good amateur scouting team, considerable luck in development, and not getting traded away for a big name and a bigger splash.
 
I hope the Sox just stand pat this deadline, and resist the urge to sell off guys like JBJ and Owens and Johnson. Much less any of the A-ball "lottery tickets" like Margot, Ball, Guerra, Devers, or Moncada.

There are two types of prospects. Ones who are future core pieces and ones who are trade bait for future core pieces. Like it or not some of these guys you have mentioned will be moved. Obviously it depends who they are moved for in order to see if it was worth it but there are worse players to move these guys for. If this was a move to get someone like Cueto then there would be zero point. But trading for Hamels and avoiding a crippling contract is not a bad deal at all.

Again this is probably nothing since RAJ is across from Ben at the negotiating table and is very likely to say one minute he'll do Owens and Margot and the next minute ask for Betts Swihart Moncada and Xander. I personally don't think the Phillies trade anyone until RAJ gets fired.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

You know how "Sonny Gray type" pitchers become available to teams?
 
A good amateur scouting team, considerable luck in development, and not getting traded away for a big name and a bigger splash.
 
I hope the Sox just stand pat this deadline, and resist the urge to sell off guys like JBJ and Owens and Johnson. Much less any of the A-ball "lottery tickets" like Margot, Ball, Guerra, Devers, or Moncada.

 

You know how "Sonny Gray type" pitchers become available to teams?
 
A good amateur scouting team, considerable luck in development, and not getting traded away for a big name and a bigger splash.
 
I hope the Sox just stand pat this deadline, and resist the urge to sell off guys like JBJ and Owens and Johnson. Much less any of the A-ball "lottery tickets" like Margot, Ball, Guerra, Devers, or Moncada.

 
As Brian Mac points out here - http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150627/SPORTS/150629355 - a lot of the current crop of best pitchers in the AL were acquired by the team for which they are now playing.  E.g., Archer (drafted by Cleveland); Odorizzo (drafted by the Brewers); Kluber (drafted by the Padres); etc.
 
Lesson being that it usually takes a lot of time and patience to see young pitchers blossom.  And it helps if the parent team isn't very good so they won't be trading away prospects for a chance to win.

 

[ivanvamp]

I know this is just some guys opinion filtered through an ESPN article but this is really bad.

I don't think 2016 is totally hopeless, but if the GM is feeling pressure to win they ought to fire him now. They need to be planning around this organizations' lone strength, under 25 talent.

Fortunately, it's a significant strength.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

 
 
As Brian Mac points out here - http://www.providencejournal.com/article/20150627/SPORTS/150629355 - a lot of the current crop of best pitchers in the AL were acquired by the team for which they are now playing.  E.g., Archer (drafted by Cleveland); Odorizzo (drafted by the Brewers); Kluber (drafted by the Padres); etc.
 
Lesson being that it usually takes a lot of time and patience to see young pitchers blossom.  And it helps if the parent team isn't very good so they won't be trading away prospects for a chance to win.

 

The list you posted provides a cautionary tale for why the Sox shouldn't trade away its prospects right now. None of those guys were traded once they were part of the "current crop of best pitchers in the AL" but rather when they were lottery tickets or NSTAAPPs.
 
And yet, here they are, achieving considerable success in MLB.
 
It's why I'm so hesitant to deal any of the Sox prospects for Hamels during a second straight last-place season, especially AAA pitchers like Owens or Johnson. Because even if either of them (or both) do flame out as starters, well...the Sox bullpen needs pitchers, too.  Better ones than Breslow, at least. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Well, prospects are unpredictable. We could hold on to all of them and hope one blossoms or we could trade them for someone we already know is capable at the ML level. That's the game executives have played since forever. I remember people being absolutely furious that the Red Sox traded Rich Rundles and Tomo Okha for Ugueth Urbina. People acted like Rundles was a huge treasure. I remember people being equally pissed the next year when we traded Seung Song and Sun-Woo Kim for Cliff Floyd. Casey Kelly was a huge prospect for us and was a key to the Adrian Gonzalez trade and he's flamed out... it happens. 

The benefit of having a great farm system isn't just so the team can fill their roster with cheap, home grown talent. It's also so they can have chips at the bargaining table. I don't get upset at the idea of trading prospects, because in a sense, that's why they're there. If the team can use their big market advantage to scoop up players that other teams need to dump for cash reasons, good. 

That's not to say they should be after Hamels, but we should be open to the idea of using our resources. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

It makes sense for the Sox to be "in" on these guys to drive up the prospect price for the teams most likely to get Hamels - Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. to weaken said teams.  If the Yankees get Hamels and lose a better prospect (say a Judge, Greg Bird or Severino), that helps the Sox not only in future standings, but it takes away a potential trade chip from the Yankees in future dealings.  A smart GM would feign interest in Hamels to get those teams to have to pay more because they're going to be our competition when it comes to FA signings, salary dumps and trades over the next 10 years.  This is the type of stuff that the Sox and Yankees used to do for many years.  At least I HOPE that's what BenC is up to.  

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 
It's why I'm so hesitant to deal any of the Sox prospects for Hamels during a second straight last-place season, especially AAA pitchers like Owens or Johnson. Because even if either of them (or both) do flame out as starters, well...the Sox bullpen needs pitchers, too.  Better ones than Breslow, at least. 

 
This is a total side note and a non-rhetorical/no-snark-intended question - do LHPs who sit in the low 90s with their fastballs typically become good relievers?

 

[czar]

It makes sense for the Sox to be "in" on these guys to drive up the prospect price for the teams most likely to get Hamels - Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, etc. to weaken said teams.  If the Yankees get Hamels and lose a better prospect (say a Judge, Greg Bird or Severino), that helps the Sox not only in future standings, but it takes away a potential trade chip from the Yankees in future dealings.  A smart GM would feign interest in Hamels to get those teams to have to pay more because they're going to be our competition when it comes to FA signings, salary dumps and trades over the next 10 years.  This is the type of stuff that the Sox and Yankees used to do for many years.  At least I HOPE that's what BenC is up to.  

 
I'm not sure there are necessarily "in" to weaken OTHER teams, but Ben wouldn't be a very good GM if he wasn't involved in as many discussions as possible. I mean, do we want him just sitting and ignoring all phone calls coming through to the office?
 
I think this board is reading way too much into "the Red Sox and Phillies have talked prospects for Hamels." It's very possible the extent of the discussions is Ben trying to lowball the Phillies and the Phillies being like "BETTS, PLEASE!"

 

[ALiveH]

Don't most pitchers gain 2-3 mph velocity when they move to the pen?
 
If only we could develop our own cost-controlled front line starters through our #1 rated farm system...  we have 3 candidates in AAA or Boston who have a nonzero probability of this happening for them.
 
I see no reason to make any Buys at the trade deadline this year, when we'd have to overpay when we could pay less in the off-season.  As for being a Seller, it's fine in principle but we don't have that many pieces that make much sense to sell and it's not like we have a glaring need for more prospects.  Not impossible, but it's tough for me to see how a major deal happens unless we're just dumping salary or picking off a desperate GM.

 

[Chief_Macho]

I just wish this whole front office was gone before they can do anymore damage.  If John Henry has half a brain he'd tell them to stop pursuing anything.

 

[OCD SS]

I just wish this whole front office was gone before they can do anymore damage.  If John Henry has half a brain he'd tell them to stop pursuing anything.

This suggests that JWH isn't one of the chief architects of the current plan and is just bumbling along providing only occasional input before he signs a check and as a statement betrays a fundamental lack of understanding in how the Sox are actually run.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I just wish this whole front office was gone before they can do anymore damage.  If John Henry has half a brain he'd tell them to stop pursuing anything.

I assume that Henry and Werner are at the forefront of this damage with Ben being a mere puppet when it comes to large fundamental decisions on the direction of the organization.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I assume that Henry and Werner are at the forefront of this damage with Ben being a mere puppet when it comes to large fundamental decisions on the direction of the organization.

Especially with Werner and his history. I would say they're probably the driving force. What the Sox need to do is simple. Trade older assets such as Napoli Victorino and Koji get something in return and then build for next year.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Post #125 was the last one to include ANY information on a "Credible Rumor."  This is post #176.

 

[amfox1]

Well that's clearly and historically not been totally true.  But the prospect talent package that Beane would fleece Ben with in return would be painful.  I would imagine if Ben offered up Swihart, Devers and Merrero he wouldn't hang up

 
Not an unreasonable deal.  My guess is it would require Margot rather than Devers and a pitcher such as Stankiewicz (who is Beane's type of pitcher).  Beane wants upper-level prospects.
 
So, does Beane hang up if Ben offers Swihart, Margot, Marrero and Stankiewicz for four years of Sonny Gray?

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Post #125 was the last one to include ANY information on a "Credible Rumor."  This is post #176.

Well, it *is* a discussion thread. I'd like more rumors and less discussion too but we're all part of the noise.

 

[jscola85]

Not directly Red Sox rumors, per se, but Jayson Stark tweeted today that the Padres are going into full firesale mode on their pitching staff, in particular Shields and Cashner.  Nothing groundbreaking, but any time AJ Preller is thinking about a trade, the Red Sox should at least make a call.  Pablo for Shields?

 

[jimbobim]

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats  2m2 minutes ago
Of all the starters mentioned as actually available, Carrasco is the one I'd offer Devers for. Some hate Ty Ross, I'd move 2 Top 10 for him.
 
Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  12m12 minutes ago
Rival clubs intrigued by prospect that #Indians might move a starting pitcher. “They’re not flat-out saying, ‘No go,’ one exec said.
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Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  12m12 minutes ago
#Indians, though, not inclined to move a starter; would need huge return. #BlueJays made big push for Carrasco. Didn’t get done.

 

[jscola85]

Carrasco's stuff is hard not to love, just like Tyson Ross.  Not sure what incentive Cleveland has to trade him though, given he's on a remarkably team-friendly deal and has started to turn it on over the last month or so.

 

[jimbobim]

Carrasco's stuff is hard not to love, just like Tyson Ross.  Not sure what incentive Cleveland has to trade him though, given he's on a remarkably team-friendly deal and has started to turn it on over the last month or so.

Not only stuff. Peripherals love him too. 
 
Ben Nicholson-Smith ‏@bnicholsonsmith  9s9 seconds agoToronto, Ontario
Why would #BlueJays push for Carrasco? Kershaw's the lone #MLB pitcher with a better xFIP in last calendar year http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=10&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,a …
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[BosRedSox5]

http://espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post?id=10775

It's behind the Insider paywall, but Olney talks about how the market shifted from a seller's market before the ASB to a buyer's market now that many more pitchers seem to be hitting the market. 

The Red Sox should be looking for available starters with multiple years of control, and using their resources. We've got a top farm system, so why not use that to our advantage and add one of these <30 pitchers who are having an uncharacteristic bad year? Cashner, Leake, Latos, Carrasco maybe? It seems like a good time to strike even if we're not doing so with an eye to 2016 not 2015. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Preller is so terrible; he built a team that is nearly as bad as the Red Sox.

 
Is it defensible at all to day that Preller made moves that seemed very good at the time and inexplicably didn't pan out... like Ben apologists do? 

 

[Rasputin]

Can a minor leagues be treated whole suspended for drugs? I'm just wondering because Kopech would be a pretty decent chip.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Can a minor leagues be treated whole suspended for drugs? I'm just wondering because Kopech would be a pretty decent chip.

 
Auto-correct stinks, but I'm guessing he could be an agreed-upon PTBNL

 

[Rasputin]

 
Auto-correct stinks, but I'm guessing he could be an agreed-upon PTBNL

Dammit, yeah, traded while. And I guess he could be PTBNLed if he can't be traded now. It's not like he's going to get hurt in games.

 

[Pilgrim]

 
Is it defensible at all to day that Preller made moves that seemed very good at the time and inexplicably didn't pan out... like Ben apologists do? 

He also completely gutted his minor league system, so there's one difference.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
Is it defensible at all to day that Preller made moves that seemed very good at the time and inexplicably didn't pan out... like Ben apologists do? 

 
He got three mediocre-to-bad corner outfielders together in a stadium with a cavernous outfield and tried to find a center fielder from one of them, then signed a notable fly ball pitcher going from a generational defensive team to a generationally bad one and wonders why an otherwise reasonable deal for a pitcher who kind of slipped by the market isn't working out. He also took on the BJ Upton contract in order to trade for Craig Kimbrel, the kind of GFIN move you make when you're the LA Dodgers, not the Padres.
 
Expecting Hanley to play a competent Fenway LF is a whole different kettle of fish than expecting.... Wil Myers??? to play a competent Petco CF. Preller's moves were less defensible individually and especially less defensible when considering the whole picture. 

 

[jtn46]

Yeah the reaction to the Padres moves was not overwhelmingly great. This is ESPN's preseason prediction, only 2 NL West winner predictions and 7 playoff predictions overall out of 15.

 

[Detts]

Can a minor leagues be treated whole suspended for drugs? I'm just wondering because Kopech would be a pretty decent chip.

 
I've seen him hit 99 in person.  He is 19.  We are lacking in ML pitching talent in the high minors.  Why in the hell would you trade him now?  

 

[Rasputin]

 
I've seen him hit 99 in person.  He is 19.  We are lacking in ML pitching talent in the high minors.  Why in the hell would you trade him now?  

I wasn't advocating a trade, but a kid who can hit 99 is a nice chip.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  19s19 seconds ago
Sources: #Dodgers, #RedSox among many teams asking on #Indians’ starters. CLE not motivated to act; would need to be “very compelling deal.”
 

 

[soxhop411]

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal  19s19 seconds ago
Sources: #Dodgers, #RedSox among many teams asking on #Indians’ starters. CLE not motivated to act; would need to be “very compelling deal.”

 

Ties in with this from yesterday

“@JeffPassan: Sources: Cleveland has been willing to listen on pitching, particularly Carlos Carrasco. May be a match there with Toronto. They've talked.”

 

[Carmen Fanzone]

Cashner, Leake, Latos, Carrasco maybe? It seems like a good time to strike even if we're not doing so with an eye to 2016 not 2015. 

 
Leake and Latos are rentals.

 

[WenZink]

Isn't it obvious, that now that Buchholz is down, that the Sox have nothing to trade of value on their mlb roster?  And that to trade prospects for anything "that helps them in 2016 and beyond," is just plain dumb -- given that they'd be paying extra for the acquired player's 2015 contribution?
 
Maybe, they can pay the bulk of the salary for a  Victorino or Napoli, package him with a "blocked prospect," like Marrero and get a slight upgrade on a 1b prospect.  In any event, even in those cases, it's better to wait until mid-late August, when teams are more likely to carry role players on a roster that expands after September 1st.  Perhaps Napoli goes on a streak and is valuable to a team that needs a RH hitter off the bench.  The prospects would have to be PTBNL.
 
Moving Koji makes little sense, because you still have to find a closer for 2016, so why create another hole to fill.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Isn't it obvious, that now that Buchholz is down, that the Sox have nothing to trade of value on their mlb roster?  And that to trade prospects for anything "that helps them in 2016 and beyond," is just plain dumb -- given that they'd be paying extra for the acquired player's 2015 contribution?

 
Well, for one, it's a buyer's market right now and two, it's not like if we wait these players will still be available. The more trades that happen between now and say, next February means that the availability goes down the the price does up. I don't see why it would be stupid to evaluate the market and come to the conclusion that now would be a good time to acquire some talent for the future. 

Even if you're paying for their 2015 contribution... that's not all you're getting. You get exclusive access to the player to see how they can fit in your longterm plan, you can build their brand with the fan base, they can mentor other players...

 

[bosockboy]

And as always, who cares about the 2015 money? It's not our money.

 

[WenZink]

And as always, who cares about the 2015 money? It's not our money.

 
huh?  The money's already spent!  If you save 15 cents on the dollar, it's found money.

 

[BosRedSox5]

And as always, who cares about the 2015 money? It's not our money.

 
I think what he meant is that you would have to spend more in trade chips, not actual dollars. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Isn't it obvious, that now that Buchholz is down, that the Sox have nothing to trade of value on their mlb roster?  And that to trade prospects for anything "that helps them in 2016 and beyond," is just plain dumb -- given that they'd be paying extra for the acquired player's 2015 contribution?
 
Maybe, they can pay the bulk of the salary for a  Victorino or Napoli, package him with a "blocked prospect," like Marrero and get a slight upgrade on a 1b prospect.  In any event, even in those cases, it's better to wait until mid-late August, when teams are more likely to carry role players on a roster that expands after September 1st.  Perhaps Napoli goes on a streak and is valuable to a team that needs a RH hitter off the bench.  The prospects would have to be PTBNL.
 
Moving Koji makes little sense, because you still have to find a closer for 2016, so why create another hole to fill.

 
Koji is going to be 41 next year.  They may have to find a closer for 2016 whether they trade him now or not.
 
If there's a deal to be made for Koji, they should absolutely pull the trigger.  Concerns over who closes games in 2016 shouldn't be an impediment.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

 
Koji is going to be 41 next year.  They may have to find a closer for 2016 whether they trade him now or not.
 
If there's a deal to be made for Koji, they should absolutely pull the trigger.  Concerns over who closes games in 2016 shouldn't be an impediment.

 
And as a bonus, they'd get two months to audition in-house replacements (Tazawa, Kelly... Barnes? Maybe not Barnes yet) to potentially keep them out of the FA/trade market. 

 

[Super Nomario]

 
And as a bonus, they'd get two months to audition in-house replacements (Tazawa, Kelly... Barnes? Maybe not Barnes yet) to potentially keep them out of the FA/trade market. 

I don't really want them making the decision based on whether a guy has a hot two months or not.

 

[RedSox040713]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/624991389634404353
#PrayforGray

 

[soxhop411]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/624991389634404353
#PrayforGray

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/25/there-long-shopping-list-this-year-trade-deadline/7cd5HxpKDxX9zx30ibDu8J/story.html

From here

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm starting to think that they're willing to move Swihart.  Bogaerts and Betts aren't going anywhere, and Swihart has real value if they're trading for an young ace(i.e., not Cueto or Hamels).  I'm a big Swihart fan, but a catching duo of Vazquez and Hanigan is pretty solid.